Yesterday’s Essential Research release concludes what I’d normally regard in the off season as a weekly cycle of poll results, making this an appopriate moment for a situation report. News reports yesterday were full of talk of a shift back to Labor based on a three-point lift in their primary vote from Newspoll, which neatly encapsulates what’s wrong with mainstream journalism’s reportage of opinion polling. For all The Australian’s success in marketing it as the gold standard, Newspoll is not – and indeed, does not claim to be – any more immune to statistical noise than any other poll. This particular shift was undoubtedly more noise than signal, coming as it did off a below-par result in the previous week’s poll.
For a more meaningful read of the situation you should refer to a poll aggregate, of which the one most readily to hand is of course BludgerTrack. However, you can find much the same story being told by Julian King at Pottinger (who has the Coalition at 53.6%), Simon Jackman (53.5%), Mark the Ballot (52.7%), Kevin Bonham (52.3%) and the AFR’s Poll of Polls (51.8%) (with apologies to any I’ve missed, like Andrew Catsaras’s which only appears on Insiders). Much of the variation comes down to the weight given to Essential Research, which is excluded altogether by Mark the Ballot and downweighted by BludgerTrack for having gone off trend.
Mark the Ballot’s charts offer a better visual representation of what emerges from the numbers coming out of BludgerTrack, which is that the rate of Labor’s decline slowed this week. The current output of the BludgerTrack model has Labor down 0.4% since this time a week ago (note that this isn’t exactly the same thing as the “last week” comparison on the sidebar, which reflects the model’s result at that time rather than its current retrospective evaluation) compared with 0.7% in the week to August 17, 0.7% in the week to August 10 and 0.5% in the week to August 3. As Mark the Ballot and BludgerTrack concur, the rot set in around mid-July, perhaps a fortnight before the election was called.
Of course, it’s a little too late in the game for a mere slowing of the momentum against them to do Labor much good. It would take a black swan event to return Labor to parity in the 12 days still available to them, the potential nature of which is by definition impossible to foresee. Labor’s other hope of course is that the polls and the aggregates derived from them are fundamentally wrong. A favourite argument of those predisposed to this view is that the online polling of Essential Research is telling a different story from polls using other methods, having had Labor at a post-Gillard high of 50-50 for the past two weeks. Nate Silver, it is noted, gave online polling the highest collective score in his post-match report after the presidential election, finding an average error of 2.1% compared with 3.5% for live interview phone polls and 5.0% for “robopolls”.
However, I would observe that the pollsters at the top end of Silver’s list are a mix of live phone interview and internet polls, with the live phone interview average dragged down by a number of poor performers at the bottom end (the most spectacular example being Gallup). Given the strong performances of Newspoll and Galaxy at recent state elections, at least on two-party preferred, it would require a leap of faith to conclude that either belongs in the latter camp. If anything, the risk appears to be on the downside for Labor. Essential Research aside, the big anomaly of the polling picture is that national polls have been kinder to Labor than electorate-level ones, a phenomenon by no means unique to the robo-polls (and it should be noted that the disparity seems to be lower in the case of Galaxy’s automated polling, suggesting that “house” as much as “method” bias has been at work here).
Now to some observations on the state-level projections. Labor received a large bounce in New South Wales and Queensland after Kevin Rudd’s return, bringing them into parity with the 2010 election result in the former case and well in front of it in the latter. However, in Victoria the move to Labor was more subdued. Three weeks after the Rudd comeback, BludgerTrack had the Coalition’s national lead at 50.5-49.5 and pointed to swings in Labor’s favour of 0.6% in New South Wales and 2.4% in Queensland, while going 3.7% in the other direction in Victoria (remembering that the 2010 election gave Labor its best result in Victoria since the Second World War). So far as BludgerTrack is concerned, the decline in Labor’s fortunes since has been driven by New South Wales, where the swing has now caught up with Victoria’s. That being so, one could perhaps hypothesise that it’s the Daily Telegraph wot’s winning it.
As for Queensland, that 2.4% swing to Labor is still there as far as BludgerTrack is concerned, inconsistent as that may be with reports of internal polling, the weekend Newspoll showing Labor going heavily backwards across eight Liberal National Party marginals, and a series of grim results for Labor coming out of Griffith and Forde. I keep waiting for new data from Queensland to square the circle by showing the other recent results to have been anomalous, and it keeps not happening. Of the last nine data points available to me from Queensland, which go back as far as August 7, only one fails to show a swing to Labor. The one exception is the sturdiest result of the bunch – an 800-sample Galaxy poll conducted late in the first week of the campaign. The rest are sub-samples from national polls, some (but not all) with very small samples.
The samples are smaller still for Western Australia and South Australia, although there are enough of them that it would be hoped that aggregating them would get you fairly close to a real world figure. On this basis, Labor’s once promising position in Western Australia relative to the 2010 result seems to have deteriorated significantly. In South Australia, Labor is rating a little better than media chatter (not to mention the weekend’s Hindmarsh poll) suggests they should be, though not to the extent of indicating an improvement on the 2010 status quo in terms of seats.
One final thought. With Labor holding 72 seats out of 150, it seems very likely that they will need a swing in their favour if they are going to win the election. Out of 17 national and 39 electorate-level polls conducted during the campaign (not counting a small number of electorate polls involving Greens or independent sitting members), not a single one has shown such a thing.
And as you say it’s not over yet. The AFL wants it to go away but it won’t.
Pity Essendon were relegated to 9th and not 18th. Melbourne could have enjoyed the dizzy heights of 16th.
Evidently the Melbourne banned drug investigation will start now.
kezza
[I’m not sure I understand what you’re saying, CTar1.]
What I’m saying is don’t let some Turkey take the piss out of you for taking some ‘Newstart’.
The rich suck up as much of it as they can.
Speccy 1000 – I dont see much utility in government regulation even of drugs.
[940
sprocket_
Posted Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 8:20 pm | PERMALINK
ShellBell
The Eastern Suburbs don’t start until Rushcutters Bay.
Why did Bondi?
Because Rushcutter.]
Like it.
Rushcutter’s Bay is where Billy Snedden went out with a bang.
Pretty sure, if you resign from a job, you’re barred from receiving Newstart for a certain amount of time.
Diogenes & GG
My son, who is getting married this November in Germany if I haven’t already mentioned it, is a die-hard, long-time Bombers fan. Even when they were called the Dons! He’s getting on.
Well, he told me months ago that Essendon should lose their points over this fiasco.
I think most black and reds would have already factored this into their considerations. The fans won’t be too worried about any outcome.
As for James Hird soiling his reputation, they won’t have it. They don’t care about other clubs’ supporters either being outraged.
Every club has their naughty member. But it’s their naughty member and they’ll defend them to the hilt.
Bit like politics, really.
Shelbell
[Rushcutter’s Bay is where Billy Snedden went out with a bang.]
yes, on the job was Billy. A failing of many in the East.
Carey – In the circumstances of the GFC sacked/resigned may have been a bit blurred.
kezza
I think Hird has gotten off very lightly. I can’t see why he hasn’t been banned for life.
And the players have gotten off scott free which is ridiculous.
Still ASADA and WADA might change that.
Simon Goodwin will coach Essendon on Saturday.
[Diogenes & GG
My son, who is getting married this November in Germany if I haven’t already mentioned it, is a die-hard, long-time Bombers fan. Even when they were called the Dons! He’s getting on.]
If the wedding is in the north, fast for a few days beforehand and learn how to waltz.
Snedden:
One of the more memorable “Truth” headlines
Sir Billy Dies On The Job
(sub-head) The condom was loaded: police
Diogs,
You’re all for transparancy usually. So, why so different this time.
Given the NCC announcement and the ASADA inquiries were beyond their control,and the interim report only came out in early August, what really could they have done differnetly.
Early suspensions without justification/evidence would have ended in court.
Personally, I reckon the AFL have won. The public will still go to the games. I’m sure some new scandal will come along to replace this one. The AFL is big business and that’s not going to stop any time soon.
The issues that will continue are Reid and whether the officials and players will be punished by WADA.
Front page, of course.
[Carey – In the circumstances of the GFC sacked/resigned may have been a bit blurred.]
I suppose so. I also understand that it’s probably not a black and white rule and there is room for leeway, if the circumstances made resignation the only option.
[Carey Moore
Posted Tuesday, August 27, 2013 at 8:55 pm | PERMALINK
Pretty sure, if you resign from a job, you’re barred from receiving Newstart for a certain amount of time.]
Sure you do. And your cash assets are taken into account too. But you’ve got to get in as early as you can. Usually six weeks minimum.
CTar1
Your sister had her head screwed on the right way. My sister-in-law committed suicide rather than apply for the dole. And she was a Labor voter, goddamit.
I wonder if the sponsors appreciated being thanked for their support by Little.
Pretty obvious that the AFL stuffed up too, knew it, and did a deal to keep it all in-house.
Diogs,
You work in a profession where you can bury your misstakes and errors of judgement.
Hird should be punished, but not crucified.
Little thanks Fitzpatrick but not Demetriou.
I wonder if Abbott will go back to choosing his own ties after the election, and if so, what colour will be his first choice.
glory,
The AFL is a business and acted to minimise the damage to it’s brand and operations. Any business would do the same.
Carey
[if the circumstances made resignation the only option.]
I think that’s the way it went down.
GG
Reid has other problems as his medical license must be in jeopardy. He can’t really afford to admit to any wrongdoing as we have a “fit and proper person” test and he might be deemed not a fit person to practise medicine.
It also looks like we have a Brownlow Medallist who has taken banned substances and keeps his medal. That is ridiculous.
2013 Defence White Paper
Page 49
5.38 The Government has decided not to proceed at this time with long-term planning for establishing
a supplementary east coast fleet base in Brisbane (which had been recommended by the Review).
The significant preliminary cost estimate (in the order of $6 billion), challenges associated with land
acquisition, environmental considerations, the need for extensive dredging and the wider dispersion
to a third fleet base of Royal Australian Navy personnel and training, all suggest that establishing a
fleet base in Brisbane would be challenging and require significant continued investment for it to
remain sustainable
The move to Brisbane was recommended in this White Paper.
kezza
[My sister-in-law committed suicide rather than apply for the dole.]
F#ck.
St
[How come we are meant to worry about Murdoch bias against Labor.. but not tax-payer funded ABC Bias against the Coalition?]
As soon as I see some bias (defined by the Murdoch standard) against the Coalition on #theirABC I’ll post it here.
I’ve stopped paying serious attention to #theirABC precisely because of its support for the Coalition agenda.
Dio
[I think Hird has gotten off very lightly. I can’t see why he hasn’t been banned for life.]
Over the top. He trusted employed experts to run the program. He’s not qualified to evaluate those substances.
Diogs,
The cards have to fall where they may.
shellbell
[If the wedding is in the north, fast for a few days beforehand and learn how to waltz.]
Thanks for your welcome advice.
My son told me about the food! He’s put on a couple of stone apparently. And is now on a diet. They live in Munich but the wedding will be at her parents’ place a couple of hours north of Berlin.
(I’ve seen the photos of the Chrissy spreads.)
Hopefully my boarding school waltzing (not to mention years and years of old-time NNG hall dances) will hold me in good stead.
When my younger son was in Munich earlier this year, we had hysterics over his mobile phone recordings of the thigh-slapping, leather-wearing, knickerbocker-type dancing. And it wasn’t Oktoberfest.
Cheers, shellbell
triton
He signed off on like 1500 drug injections for his players. And let non-medical people prescribe and administer them.
In any other profession, he would be sacked.
[The move to Brisbane was recommended in this White Paper.]
Well there you go. It was recommended by the review, rejected by the government, which the current PM wasnt then leading.
Not much to see here suddenly, except a good idea in the long run.
We need another opinion poll soon – you lot are going spare.
Fran,
All the surveys I’ve seen say people trust the ABC as a source of news information above any alternative source.
Whether it is an earned accolade or a distorted perception of reality, perception rules the roost in today’s Australia
GG – I don’t disagree. But it just demonstrates where AFL has gone. They discuss integrity every week. Classic hypocrisy. Demetriou has ruined the code.
[Kevin Rudd has launched an extraordinary attack on Tony Abbott, accusing him of lacking the “temperament” and experience to handle complex international situations such as the worsening crisis engulfing Syria.
Facing internal doubts over his confidence as his election campaign is perceived as bogging down, Mr Rudd sought to contrast his reputation as a foreign affairs expert with Mr Abbott’s notoriety as a political hard man.
Adapting a tactic from the play-book of John Howard, who once claimed then opposition leader Kim Beazley lacked the ticker to be a prime minister, the unusually direct language appeared to be a calculated move to erode confidence in his opponent’s ability to stride the world stage and represent Australia in the councils of the world.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/kevin-rudd-questions-tony-abbotts-temperament-on-global-affairs-20130827-2sod9.html#ixzz2dAQsJbTn ]
Hird to resume after his suspension expires. I wonder if the club will stick with that after a year of reflection.
@Confessions/1037
It’s not just him (Abbott) but also other people in the front bench that is dealing with Foreign Affairs (Bishop for example).
Diogs
Melbourne was obviously the control cohort no case to answer
Alias re Snedden, he came and he went
Kezza
[And it wasn’t Oktoberfest.]
If you can’t steal a few proper steins it’s a wasted trip.
Come on girl, you’ve got a skirt on!
Correction
The correct term is “scot free”. Evidently “scot” refers to a tax.
ESJ,
Perhaps you can give us one of those fukyu poems to entertain us all.
can’t wait for Abbott to say “shit happens” as a response to an international incident
GG
It’s a good outcome for Labor. Vindicates their press conference and public stance.
Malcolm Fraser takes a dump on Abbott’s character: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1L66KhP0jYg&feature=youtu.be
Basic drift: Says he lacks conviction, constancy, shifts in the wind, will say anything to get power.
glory,
Sure, that’s why they are a multi billion dollar enterprise and growing ever larger.
Demetriou has been enormously successful.
[I wonder if the club will stick with that after a year of reflection.]
Isn’t he the golden boy at Essendon?
[Basic drift: Says he lacks conviction, constancy, shifts in the wind, will say anything to get power.]
Sounds like Malcolm is reminiscing about himself.
zoid:
It isn’t just foreign affairs either.
Look at the incoming Minister for Science!