GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
I don’t think wooden boats would last too long as artificial reefs.
Liberals – give companies a tax cut.
To fund the company tax cut the School Kids bonus is stopped, the co-contribution into superannuation is stopped, the increase in superannuation to 12% is stopped,
Who are the most effected – the every day Mums and Dads
the FBT changes are stopped, the carbon price is stopped, the MRRT is stopped.
Who are the most effected – the every day Mums and Dads
Who are the greatest beneficiaries?? The wealthy Liberal contributors. Gina Twiggy Murdoch etc
They want the every day Mums and Dads to finance the tax cuts and benefits to these billionaires.
Some Roman boats made of wood have been found as long as two thousand years after sinking
poroti
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 1:36 pm | Permalink
I don’t think wooden boats would last too long as artificial reefs.
————————————————–
So many sink they don’t seem to last long as boats either
I recently lambasted the incompetent managing of the Tasmanian economy, and this story illusteates why. It is about the cowardly failure by Justice David Porter to jail former Gunns boss John Gay for insider trading.
[In sentencing, Justice David Porter told the Supreme Court in Launceston the offending was not in the serious category of insider trading.
Justice Porter said he was satisfied Gay was of exemplary character.
He said the offence fell in the less serious category, because Gay had been motivated to sell the shares by his prostate cancer diagnosis, not by the receipt of the price sensitive information, and he had told the company secretary of his intent to sell the shares.
Justice Porter told the court Gay had avoided a loss by selling the shares when he did, but it was impossible to tell how much he had benefitted.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-23/former-gunns-boss-jahn-gay-faces-sentencing-for-insider-trading/4907194
What an ignorant judge. The gain from insider trading for Gay is easy to calculate – the court was told it was about $800,000. For that, Gay has been fined $50,000 and not jailed.
The ill-health excuse is a crock too. Prostate cancer is one of the most benign, is common among older men, and dooes not greatly shrten ife. There are debates among doctors as to whether it is worth screening for.
So another corporate criminal walks off into the sunset with a wrist slap and most of the money he stole. No wonder Tasmania always remains poor. I suppose next they will replaec an economically incompetent Labor State govenment with a corrupt Liberal one. That seems ot be the cycle.
Some here argued when I criticised Gunns, the pulp mill and the former Labor state government here in the past. The fact remains, that if John Gay had been stopped, Gunns would still be a viable business, hundreds of Tasmanians would still have jobs, and the State might not be in an eternal recession.
Poroti we just have to ask nicely for them to start making metal ones.
This use of “a premise” started with Real Estate Agents and is proliferating with the NBN discussions.
The word PREMISE (singular) refers to a proposition for arguing a point a writer or speaker wants to make.
The word PREMISES (plural) would be the correct choice when referring to a location–land or the buildings on the land. It can also refer to a building or part of a building, as in “Our designer is located on the PREMISES.”
[If Shorten lost his cool in an interview with Cormann, I’m not surprised]
They were not on together, Shorten just lost his cool.
lizzie
Real estate agents don’t need yer book lernin’. They know how to lie to the buyer. The rest don’t matter none.
Burke presser
BW
[It must be some sort of consolation for the ACT Greens that this lot are preferencing the ACT Greens last.]
I’m relaxed about it.
Speaking as someone for whom respectful and humane treatment of sensate beings is very important, I’ve never opposed in principle resort to lethal methods of animal management. Sometimes, regrettably, that is the least of all harms.
I would want to be convinced of this on a case by case basis, but sometimes, there really will be no good alternative.
Despite being a vegetarian myself, I’m not even opposed to killing animals for food, where that is the least of all harms. I regard that as not being the case, much, if not most of the time.
Providing that people avoid unnecessary imposition of suffering and do what they do out of a compelling need — e.g. consuming/producing nutrient, then I’m OK with killing an animal.
CC @ 499, so Turnbull’s plan won’t save much then :P.
lizzie therefore your premise is that it is incorrect to refer to a premises as a premise? So to speak.
$5 Billion is about 1.3% of Revenues and an even lower proportion of current expenditure levels – is anyone arguing that good financial management can’t find that sort of saving?
The ALP were losing almost that much a week for 10 weeks until the start of the election.
With due respect Real Estate agents are not there for the buyer, they are answerable to the client the vendor.
Sure they should not lie as today’s buyer is tomorrow’s seller.
However, it will require the installation of a whole bunch of boxes that will need to be ripped out in a few years time :P.
@CC/514
Yes, and Coalition spending spree is making that worse.
That’s not even with Coalition Party cuts.
Crank
Nice argument but this brings me to why then oppose the NBN which will in time be a revenue generating entity.
Socrates
😀
Forget the RE Agents. I’d like more pollies and bloggers to show a bit of class! Even Turnbull said “to the premise” the other day.
Another good word lost to Mrs Malaprop. :sigh:
[However, it will require the installation of a whole bunch of boxes that will need to be ripped out in a few years time .]
Perhaps we can add them to our new artificial reef.
mexicanbeemer
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 1:37 pm | Permalink
Some Roman boats made of wood have been found as long as two thousand years after sinking
===============================================================
now now don’t go off message
The coalition’s PPL policy, and now their boat buy-back policy, are just laughable and completely unworkable, and clearly demonstrate they’re just not ready to govern. Rudd and all ALP members should ridicule these policies every chance he gets from here onwards.
I think the ALP could do well with ads that show just how naive and ridiculous these policies are, and finish with something like, ‘Tony Abbott is just not ready to be PM’.
“@ABCNews24: Tony Burke: The Oppn has announced ‘covert operations’ but principle no. 1 of covert operations is don’t drop them to the media #ausvotes”
davidwh
Beautiful.
My Say
Cute comeback but old wooden boats have been found although not in very good condition
mexicanbeemer
In very specific conditions . They need to be fairly rapidly covered in silt or mud or be in anoxic water ( like the bottom of the Black Sea). Conditions which stop the normal wood munchers and bacteria from attacking.
I gather you folk really like your snorkelling :D.
Displayname @512 . . and the ALP scare campaign about moving from FTTN to FTTP being an expensive choice is all rather fraught – about the same level of confidence in the assumptions as models of global climate.
Lizzie
True enough! My premise is that their premises are made of glass in any such debate.
poroti
Yes that is what i was thinking off.
Burke of all the mad ideas I have heard in immigration I think the mad idea of boat buyback wins.
“@ABCNews24: Burke: Indonesia has one of the largest fishing fleets in the world.. Of all the mad ideas I’ve heard in Immigration, boat buyback wins.”
Perth CBD outgrew copper years ago and has had fibre for years I believe.
[What Australia needs to do is start buying up all the Indonesian fishing boats.]
LOL, yes, what could possibly go wrong with that.
Compact Crank
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 1:45 pm | Permalink
$5 Billion is about 1.3% of Revenues and an even lower proportion of current expenditure levels – is anyone arguing that good financial management can’t find that sort of saving?
The ALP were losing almost that much a week for 10 weeks until the start of the election.
——————————————————-
And of course on Sept 8 presuming the Liberals win the election the need to pay out all that money will just disappear in a puff of smoke. Pigs will start flying, Abbott will stop saying candidates have sex appeal, Hockey will learn to count, the boats will stop and the Abbott will sit on the beach on stop the tide coming in
[Mr Rudd dismissed the front page story as a “beat up” maintaining that he’d been “in the zone”, had smiled at the makeup artist and not one angry word had been exchanged.]
Sounding more like a set-up all the time – wonder what Abbott discussed with Lily during his ‘session’ with her
[I gather you folk really like your snorkelling ]
Yes and we expect to find the Coalition policy costings buried down there somewhere as well.
@CC/528
Wrong, it is expansive, even UK saying it is expansive.
Fibre-on-demand which is not proper FTTP is also expansive.
MB @518 – i’m not a tech head and my ADSL2+ works just fine.
I’d be convinced if a coherent economic argument could be made – but it hasn’t – it has all been – “blue sky” speculation – if NBN was a listed company the NBN and their supporters would have been hit with multiple “Please explain”s by the ASX by now.
For a long time I thought the coalition policies would be bad for the country, but that they’d at least be solid pieces of policy. But the PPL and boat buy-back policies show the coalition is actually completely incompetent, and just not ready to govern. Unbelievable.
“@HyperBrendan: I think Clive will have his Titanic II registered in Indonesia #ausvotes”
Geoff
It would be great for trade, we can sell them iron ore and they can send it back as ships.
CC, installing a whole bunch of nodes + their support only to have to replace them soon after is going to be quite a bit more expensive than just running out fibre in the first place. The cost of moving from FTTN to FTTP may not be expensive, but the choice of putting in FTTN in the first place will have been.
“@eleanorbloom: Burke wonders how they will know which boats used by people smugglers, out of all the hundreds of thousands of fishing vessels in Indo.”
[Minchin now saying Greens will have balance of Power]
He makes it sound like a bad thing.
Crank
[and the ALP scare campaign about moving from FTTN to FTTP being an expensive choice is all rather fraught – about the same level of confidence in the assumptions as models of global climate.]
Am I to believe that you actually have the intelligence to hold down a job?
[“@eleanorbloom: Burke wonders how they will know which boats used by people smugglers, out of all the hundreds of thousands of fishing vessels in Indo.”]
They will be the ones with all the people on them.
mexicanbeemer
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 1:16 pm | Permalink
My Say
Please don’t go off message, the Liberal plan will not prevent women from being employed.
It is taxpayer funded with a levy on the largest businesses.
The problems with the PPL are more to do with the budget
462
triton
============================================================
that levy or cut in tax does not cover all woman staying
home for 6 m\MONTHS WE WILL PAY WITH costs
things we buy must go up the business will need to pass the costs on to us,
===============================================================
and even if it costs not too much re our super is the start ABBOTT AND JOE will may delve in to our pension
,[super] when ever it suits them
was a older people s group yesterday where it was expressed that we should be taking our money out of the funds and putting in the bank or under our beds
they don’t trust abbott
now this type of thing is not good for the country
I know how they feel , I have money in the bank ( substancia} that will never go in to super now
the labor gov have worked for us for some time now to give us older people dignity higher pensions, the lib penson was crumbs off the howard table at budget time if he needed a few more votes
we now get over 500 plus a fort, good increase to give back our dignity so don’t tell me to stay on YOUR message
“@leftocentre: .@Tony_Burke – ‘imagine another country unilaterally announcing placement of their police on our soil performing their own duties.’
#auspol”
Fran
For the record, I should compliment the Greens as being the only party that correctly criticised the behaviour of Gunns and the Lennon government over the pulp mill. The Greens were correct on that issue both economically and environmentally. Sadly, Gunns and Tasmanian Labor preferred to lose a $600M a year business ignoring them.
Ripping up you most valuable publically owned natural resource and giving it to a private company who then flog it overseas for half price is not good economics, no matter how many sawmillers tell the Labor Party it is.