GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
Labor hate the boat buy back idea because they are soft on people smugglers and are the best friends the people smugglers have ever had.
“@eleanorbloom: If the Opp’n keep making announcements like they have today, then we should catch up pretty quickly, says Burke re election. #ausvotes”
@Sean/551
It is a waste of tax payer money.
If the LNP are cruising – why are sending out such dodgy brainfarts every day?
DavidWH
[They will be the ones with all the people on them.]
Yep. The Three Star military person will bid for them in Darwin Harbour.
😀
Good news. Scott Morrison can buy Indonesian boats online. It’ll save a fortune.
http://www.apolloduck.com/regions.phtml?next=10&sort=0&fx=AUD&limit=10&rid=id
[Labor hate the boat buy back idea because they are soft on people smugglers and are the best friends the people smugglers have ever had.]
Ive just worked it out: Sean’s an LNP commentbot on a work for the dole scheme.
My Say
There a many problems with the purposed PPL which can and should be highlighted.
What you did earlier by claiming that the PPL would hurt Women’s employment prospects was an untruth. the PPL will be paid by the taxpayer with a fig of a levy.
From an employers perceptive if the Women is pregnant every lets say two years, the employer will only need to pay for 18 months.
As i said there are issues with the purposed PPL so there is no need to lie.
Lizzie @546
You forgot to question my sexuality and parentage.
Check your ALP/Union playbook.
“@chrisberg: break the people smugglers’ business model and give them a new business model”
Mr Berg not impressed either
Sean
And by offering to buy boats you have given the smugglers a new business. Smuggler visits village buys boat, sells it to the Australian government.
http://www.standupforsuper.com.au/
little over a year after Parliament passed legislation to lift the Superannuation Guarantee to 12%, it is under threat.
In his Budget reply speech on 16 May, Opposition leader Tony Abbott said that if elected he would delay the increase from 9% to 12% by two years.This would mean that many of the 8.4 million Australian workers with superannuation would have their retirement income cut.
Under last year’s legislation, compulsory superannuation contributions are meant to increase in steady steps from today’s 9% to 12% in 2019. This would see a person aged 30 today on average full-time earnings retiring with an extra $127,000 in their savings. The first 0.25% increase will
. But if the Coalition wins the September election, it will stay at 9.25% until 2015 at the earliest. The same average 30-year-old would retire with $20,000 less in superannuation savings.
@mexicanbeemer/558
I think the issue is that there is an option for not returning to work.
Also Childcare needs to be fixed.
http://www.theherald.com.au/story/1722310/opinion-working-women-just-want-childcare-fixed/?cs=308
BW
No, detainees names are not used in court documents or court reporting.
Michael Kirby, for one, has been very critical of that rather dehumanising process.
“@leftocentre: .@Tony_Burke sums up the Coalition’s Rent A Boat, Buy A Boat, Insult A Sovereign Democracy Plan – “Ludicrous”
#ausvotes
#auspol”
DisplayName @543
Key Staff at NBN have clearly read the writing on the wall and interpreted it correcty – leaving for greener pastyures.
CC, you’re right that predictions of future applications are all blue sky speculation, however growth in data production/consumption is not slowing down.
It seems to me that your own suggestion that we already have sufficient bandwidth implies that we would be seeing a slowing in data use, which we don’t.
That makes your speculations less well founded than those in support of the NBN.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/8/19/economy/retirees-will-pay-paid-parental-leave-scheme
Tony Abbott’s parental leave scheme will be paid for by retirees and those saving to retire.
The slug to retirees has been engineered by the Coalition backroom and joins the Reserve Bank’s lower interest rate drive in the inter-generational attack game, which the older generation is losing.
That fact that very few media outlets picked up the fact that retirees and those saving for retirement would pay a slice of the parental leave bill shows that the inter-generational game is not widely understood.
=============================================================
so Mexican u stay on your message I will stay ON THE SIDE of retirees like us my husband started work at 15
and there is no way I will allow the likes of joe and tony to delve in to my super it coming out of the fund
going into the bank or under our beds
and Mexican I have an elderly friend who has nO super
just her pension and shares
she tells me the money from her shares pays her private health cover
so see the link
and Mexican I have an elderly friend who has nO super
just her pension and shares
she tells me the money from her shares pays her private health cover
so see the link
My Say
I know Tone’s PPL impacts on Franking Credits and that is where your attack should be, the untruth was in claiming that it will hurt women’s employment prospects.
CTar1
In Darwin they traditionally hold semi regular “illegal boat” bonfires. I think Costello when visiting Darwin had the “honour” of setting fire to a bunch of Indon fishing boats. They must have used a bit too much diesel as even from across the harbour at the LNG plant the column of black smoke looked huge.
@CC/566
And was Pestered by the Opposition and Media from day 1.
Go figure.
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/brough-plays-down-palmers-ashby-claims/1995262/
MAL Brough has confirmed he asked Clive Palmer to give Peter Slipper’s media adviser Karen Doane a job.
In a press conference yesterday, Mr Brough also admitted he had a meeting with the billionaire at his Coolum resort and shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey also attended.
He also said James Ashby was discussed at the meeting.
But these are the only points of Mr Palmer’s sensational claims which made headlines across the country Mr Brough agrees with.
lefty e
A commentbot that is failing the Turing test.
MB
[What you did earlier by claiming that the PPL would hurt Women’s employment prospects was an untruth. the PPL will be paid by the taxpayer with a fig of a levy.]
While I agree with your other comments on the PPL (a terrible policy) My say may be correct on its efefct on women’s employment. Ripping money out of the super industry to give to a wealthy group who are likely to save it means there will be less investmetn by super funds, which will reduce employment, for women and men.
Morrison is now planning to have Australian Police “invade” Indonesia. He plans to send Aussie cops over there to conduct investigations on behalf of the Aust Govt to seek out people smugglers etc.
What would we say if another country said they were sending their cops here to investigate Aust citizens.
Oh yeah, and this will a pocket change cost of $67 million
Socrates …
Indeed. Then again, populism rules.
“@KateEllisMP: Great to see @Tony_Burke tearing apart this preposterous Lib policy. Happy to support Indonesian boat industry but not the Aus auto industry”
Socrates
To a point i see where you are coming from and in women dominated industries we may well see upward pressure on labour costs as an unintended consequences.
This may reduce employment opportunities but then again in many women dominated industries like sales and nursing i suspect the pressure will be on the government to come up with other solutions.
As for the cost of Abbott’s “buy the boats” folly, there is a UN Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO) study linked through Wikipedia which counts the number of fishing vessels in Indonesia in 2004:
[In 2004, the number of marine fishing boats was 549 100 units]
ftp://ftp.fao.org/FI/DOCUMENT/fcp/en/FI_CP_ID.pdf
That’s an awful lot of boats that Abbott’s 3* admiral will need to scuttle.
http://www.naroomanewsonline.com.au/story/1723055/broadband-ranks-as-top-issue-in-eden-monaro/?cs=1237
The NBN ranks as the top election issue in Eden Monaro
More rumours Essendon are considering standing Hird down and not playing in finals to end the fiasco.
Locked in talks with AFL.
poroti
[In Darwin they traditionally hold semi regular “illegal boat” bonfires. ]
The seizure of boats doing illegal things is familiar to me.
I once ‘ramrodded’ the organising of an auction of Patagonian Tooth Fish in Fremantle (Strange Occupations, Strange Situations!).
If there weren’t many boats, Abbotts plan would be quite ingenious. As it is, there are thousands so its iDIOtic.
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 2:00 pm | Permalink
Labor hate the boat buy back idea because they are soft on people smugglers and are the best friends the people smugglers have ever had.
——————————————————–
Liberals like the boat buy back idea because they are soft in the head and are the best friends the boat salesman ever had
For as little as $27 billion we can stop the boats forever. Well for as long as it will take to build another 549,100 boats.
CC
[Key Staff at NBN have clearly read the writing on the wall and interpreted it correcty – leaving for greener pastyures.]
They think that the Liberals are a disaster waiting to happen. Thanks for pointing this out.
@william7424: Tony Abbott’s Indonesian boat-buy scheme defies economic sense http://t.co/6LHUksgBWg via @guardian #auspol #ausvotes
Lots of boat jokes by journalists in my twitter timeline.
david, there is a cap on the cost at least. If we sink enough boats in the water between Australia and Indonesia, eventually they’ll be able to drive across. End of boats. 😛
[More rumours Essendon are considering standing Hird down and not playing in finals to end the fiasco.
Locked in talks with AFL.]
Hird can amend his Supreme Court writ and add his employer as a party – game on!
david – We could be the saviors of the Indonesian Boat Building Industry.
No doubt they will be very enthusiastic about this idea.
Dio
[More rumours Essendon are considering standing Hird down and not playing in finals to end the fiasco.]
He won’t like that.
Well the potential benefit is the smugglers use their new found wealth to build a large ocean liner name it the Tone and sale it directly into Sydney Harbor.
lefty – Sean doesn’t work for the dole – he just collects it, and craps on dopey left wingers on this blog who pay for it.
So now Abbott will pay companies not to pollute and he will pay Indonesian fishermen not to rent their boats to people smugglers.
There is now an obvious incentive for anyone to do something anti-social and Abbott will pay them not to do it. The possibilities are endless.
If there’s anything the last week has revealed, it’s that Abbott and the libs just aren’t ready to govern the country. Abbott is just not ready to be PM.
DN
[eventually they’ll be able to drive across]
We should sink them in a line from Sumatra to Ashmore Reef and then to the Australian coast.
That would be the most economical way to do it.
@guytaur/590
Good for economy of Indonesia, bad for us all around.
Coalition Party won’t be able control the boats in Indonesia, so it will be a big pot of gold for Indonesia.