GhostWhoVotes reports Galaxy has electorate-level polls from 10 marginal seats in New South Wales and Victoria, collectively painting a grim picture for Labor. There is also a Newspoll survey of 502 respondents showing Peter Beattie trailing by 54-46 in Forde (a swing to the Liberal National Party of about 2%), from primary votes of 38% for Labor (37.4% at the 2010 election), 48% for the Coalition (44.1%) and 5% for the Greens (12.2%). The Galaxy poll has apparently targeted 550 to 600 respondents per electorate for a margin of error of 4%. (UPDATE: These turn out to be automated polls, and not live interviewer polls like Galaxy normally does.)
In the Sydney seats:
Lindsay. A 54-46 lead to the Liberals, a swing of about 5%.
Banks. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 3.5%.
Werriwa. A 52-48 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 9%.
Reid. A 53-47 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 6%.
Greenway. A 51-49 lead to the Liberals, a swing of 2%.
Parramatta. 50-50, a swing of about 5.5%.
Barton. Labor ahead 52-48, a swing of 5%.
In Victoria:
La Trobe. The Liberals lead 51-49, a swing of 3%, from primary votes of 36% for Labor and 45% for the Liberals.
Corangamite. The Liberals lead 56-44, a swing of slightly over 6%.
Chisholm. Labor leads 52-48, a Liberal swing of 4%.
Today also brought a Lonergan automated poll of Kevin Rudd’s seat of Griffith, which remarkably showed him trailing Liberal National Party candidate Bill Glasson 52-48 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Rudd (down six on 2010), 47% for Glasson (up 11% on the LNP vote in 2013) and 11% for the Greens (down four). Either in anticipation of or in reaction to the inevitably skeptical response, the company’s principal Chris Lonergan penned a rather informative piece on methodology for The Guardian.
UPDATE: The bit below has been amended to account for the fact that the Galaxy polls were automated, which means there is actually very little basis for comparing automated and live interview electorate polls.
Which makes this a timely juncture to consider how polling of various kinds has performed during the campaign. The table below shows the number of polls conducted for each pollster and poll method together with the average Labor swing, at both electorate and national level. There follows, for your convenience, basic results for every electorate-level poll of the campaign barring a small number which did not involve Labor-versus-Coalition contest, together with the swings – not a single one of which is in Labor’s favour, emphasising the point that electorate-level has been much worse for Labor than national polling. However, since nearly all of this polling has mostly been of the automated phone variety, the question arises of whether this it to do with polling method, the particular challenges of electorate-level polling, or the peculiarities of the electorates being polled.
The only live interview electorate polls featured have been two from Newspoll, which makes their performance relative to automated phone polls hard to compare. However, there is a very large gap of 4.3% between national and electorate polls for automated pollsters. Non-phone methods, which have only been employed at national level, appear to have been more favourable for Labor, although there haven’t been very many of them (note that the two-party result being used from Morgan is the previous-election measure).
ELECTORATE POLLS # Swing Galaxy 10 5.1 ReachTEL 8 7.25 JWS Research 8 6 Lonergan 3 11.3 AUTOMATED 29 6.6 Newspoll (live interviewer) 2 4.5 TOTAL 31 6.5 NATIONAL POLLS # Swing Newspoll 2 3 Nielsen 1 2 Galaxy 2 1.5 LIVE INTERVIEW 6 2.2 ReachTEL 2 2.5 Lonergan 1 2 AUTOMATED 3 2.3 Essential 2 0 AMR Research 1 0 ONLINE 3 0 Morgan Multi-Mode 2 1.75 TOTAL 13 1.7 ELECTORATE POLL RESULTS Sample ALP Swing Griffith Lonergan 21/08/2013 958 48 10 Werriwa Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 9 Reid Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 47 6 Parramatta Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 50 4 Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 46 5 La Trobe Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 3 Greenway Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 49 2 Forde Newspoll 20/08/2013 502 46 2 Corangamite Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 44 6 Chisholm Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 8 Barton Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 52 5 Banks Galaxy 20/08/2013 575 48 3 McMahon ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 47 11 Macquarie JWS Research 15/08/2013 710 45 4 Lindsay JWS Research 15/08/2013 578 39 12 Kingsford Smith ReachTEL 15/08/2013 610 48 7 Greenway JWS Research 15/08/2013 570 51 0 Forde Lonergan 15/08/2013 568 40 9 Forde JWS Research 15/08/2013 1160 40 9 Deakin ReachTEL 15/08/2013 619 47 4 Corangamite ReachTEL 15/08/2013 633 44 7 Corangamite JWS Research 15/08/2013 587 47 4 Brisbane JWS Research 15/08/2013 607 46 3 Blaxland ReachTEL 15/08/2013 636 52 10 Bennelong ReachTEL 15/08/2013 631 35 12 Banks JWS Research 15/08/2013 542 47 4 Aston JWS Research 15/08/2013 577 37 12 Lindsay Lonergan 14/08/2013 1038 36 15 Dobell/RobertsonNewspoll 11/08/2013 505 46 7 Forde ReachTEL 08/08/2013 725 46 3 Griffith ReachTEL 05/08/2013 702 46 4
Seriously what posssessed Abbott and Morriscum with their shop the boats scheme
“@jonkudelka: Pretty confident Rudd’s working on tightening up the FBT rules on Indonesian fishing boats as we speak.”
MB
[Well the potential benefit is the smugglers use their new found wealth to build a large ocean liner name it the Tone and sale it directly into Sydney Harbor.]
They could charter Clive’s Titanic II.
@Victoria/601
Must had a Gillard Moment (sorry Gillard fans).
[lefty – Sean doesn’t work for the dole – he just collects it, and craps on dopey left wingers on this blog who pay for it.]
I run my own small business paying taxes to pay for the welfare of most Labor posters here
The PPL is poor policy but buy the boats is a really silly thought bubble.
The Queensland state president of the Liberal Party from 2003 to 2006 is investigated by the CMC, a brief of evidence is given to the Police and nobody except the Governments knows what it about.
Mr Newman sacked Mr Caltabiano without explanation after paying him hundreds of thousands of dollars.
[He was one of Mr Newman’s first appointments following the LNP’s landslide election victory in March 2012.
At the time, Mr Newman said he would do a “fantastic job”.]
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/misconduct-allegations-against-former-transport-head-michael-caltabiano-referred-to-director-of-public-prosecutions/story-fnihsrf2-1226702694841
Something stinks.
@Sean/605
ROFL.
Labor posters are apparently on the dole.
hilariousmenf
NormanK @NormanK4
Morrison’s cunning plan to replace revenue shortfall in the budget – Shop The Boats!
#auspol #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/a0Vh6CweeD
https://mobile.twitter.com/NormanK4/status/370761312592084992/photo/1
victoria
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 2:34 pm | Permalink
Seriously what posssessed Abbott and Morriscum with their shop the boats scheme
———————————————————
they were just sitting around building things with their play dough and it just happened….another brain fart and this one has follow through
Support for the Aus Auto industry? Like the Chris Bowen FBT brain fart which is now biting back hard.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/ford-blames-kevin-rudds-fbt-tax-changes-for-plant-shutdowns/story-fn9qr68y-1226702474062
Blockquote> FORD has blamed Kevin Rudd’s $1.8 billion fringe benefits tax overhaul for halting production, forcing at least 750 workers to be stood down in rolling stoppages that will further imperil Labor’s chances of retaining the nation’s most marginal seat.
Work at Ford’s key Australian plants in Geelong and Broadmeadows was shut down yesterday and will be again today as car buyers flee the market in the wake of the FBT overhaul.
The shutdowns are part of six planned FBT-related stoppages at the Victorian plants, which produce the soon-to-be-defunct Falcon and Territory cars.
The industry has savaged the FBT changes amid fears the production uncertainty could drive buyers further away from the embattled Ford brand.
The closures yesterday embarrassed the Prime Minister, who was campaigning in the marginal Victorian Labor seat of Corangamite, which abuts Geelong. The seat is held by 0.3 per cent and relies heavily on Ford for hundreds of direct and indirect jobs.
Further:
[I run my own small business … ]
Began life as a big business until you took over?
davidwh
Either the coalition reckon that Australians are as dumb as dog shit, or they have lost their collective marbles
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 2:37 pm | Permalink
lefty – Sean doesn’t work for the dole – he just collects it, and craps on dopey left wingers on this blog who pay for it.
I run my own small business paying taxes to pay for the welfare of most Labor posters here
——————————————————–Run a small business – looking at your posts I doubt you can run to the corner shop
@Gauss/611
Considering that Coalition Party are not supporting the Car Industry at all, would you rather some support or none at all?
This brain fart is abit nonsense.
Gauss
Its easy for people to keep the FBT entitlements. Fill out the log books.
Tom Hawkins
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 2:40 pm | Permalink
I run my own small business …
Began life as a big business until you took over?
————————————————-
good one
AA
And I thought my brain farts were silly. 😀
ST
‘Labor hate the boat buy back idea because they are soft on people smugglers and are the best friends the people smugglers have ever had.’
How wRONgment.
Scoot’s screwloose boat absurdity is the best fun I have had all election. He has been jumping the illegals shark for six years. People have finally woken up to the fact that we are going to have a rabid lunatic in charge of immigration.
The Australian embassy in Djakarta has been swamped with enquiries. People want to know whether Morrison is interested in having a crew of 50, 100 or 150 to go with their boats, and where would like like them landed?
Isn’t it great to see that the Liberals support industry
just not industry in Australia
victoria@601
Journos will be so folded up with laughter that they’ll forget to ask about the $30-70bn costings fiasco.
You know it makes sense!
Mind you they will only buy back boats when it’s safe to do so.
Ducky
I thought about that. But this really takes the cake. What will the coalition do with all the boats? Onsell them to Indonesians for fishing, who can then onsell them back to us. Now that makes even more sense!!
Sean
I have never been on the dole
And
I become an ALP poster because the Liberal Party lost the plot and have not looked like finding it.
Apparently Tone has an economic degree, okay it appears that he has forgotten the first rule of economics.
PPL and now BBB (boat buy backs)
Abbott and company are now so cocky confident they will win the election they reckon they can say anything and the sheep will follow.
Imagine a world full of Seans.
davidwh
Gold star for you!!
The cartoonists will only do a bad job on Scoot’s boats if they can’t hold themselves still for long enough to do good drawing.
Maybe we should ask them to build submarines intead. Or would that make South Australia unhappy?
shellbell
Can you add people to your side of a writ against their will?
victoria I don’t mind calling a goose a goose even when it’s my side being goose-like.
[How wRONgment.]
80 Illegals in 2007 when Howard was last in charge.
At last count we have had 26,000 under Labor in the last 12 months.
Labor are the best friends the people smugglers have ever had and business conditions are fantastic under Labor Governments for people smugglers and stimulating the Indonesian black market economy.
The people smugglers will be very sad when Rudd the Dudd and his Labor gutless wonders are kicked out because their multi-million dollar empire they have built under this incompetent Labor government will finally be shut down.
Scoot won’t just be supporting Indonesian industry.
There’s lots of Roll on-Roll offs for sale in southern Europe at the moment.
They’ll all be making for Indonesia if the Fibs gets in.
The refugees can bring their Merc’s with them.
This should give the Indonesian boat building industry a huge boost – guranteed international buyer.
You watch, they’ll include it in the aid budget.
As somebody mentioned previously, it does seem strange that Abbott is now making ridiculous promises, given his apparent lead in the opinion polls. Why Abetz should resurrect the spectre of Workchoices at this time is also strange.
I reckon boat buy back will be scrapped pretty quickly.
bw
Mega agrees with you
“@GMegalogenis: LNP leaky boat buyback scheme shows more compassion for the vessel than either the refugee or taxpayer. But big winner is the cartoonist.”
FBT exemptions, PPL, negative gearing, trusts are all mechanisms for obscuring or distorting the market. These shonks should be eliminated by any good Liberal Treasurer.
So what levy will be introduced to fund the BBB scheme
All other buybacks come with a levy.
Geez this will be three new taxes and the Liberals haven even been sworn in yet.
g
Nice
david
[Mind you they will only buy back boats when it’s safe to do so.]
😆
Well the one positive thing about the ALP FBT Policy for the car industry is that with a smaller industry it means less industry assistance expenditure – Well Done Bowen and Rudd.
Vict
[Seriously what posssessed Abbott and Morriscum with their shop the boats scheme]
Same sort of disease that affects recent Labor leaders continuously: Shooting from the hip. The irony is that every gaffe or dubious announcement or non-announcement from Abbott defines the day’s agenda so Rudd can get no air, therefore his only way to get a headline is to outdo Abbott with his own antics, such as being rudd to makeup ladies and junior reporters. Abbott has outsmarted him yet again because this campaign was supposed to be a Presidential looking and sounding Rudd showing his class, including his amazing ability to correctly pronounce Asian pollies’ names, vs Abbott’s earthy style. Policies count for about 10% in this campaign and Labor is to blame for having spent 3+ years on their leaders’ personalities and personality cults. For my part – I’m lovin’ it.
‘I run my own small business paying taxes to pay for the welfare of most Labor posters here’
Trolling payments received from Menzies House in the form lollies doesn’t count as running a small business, and paying GST on the lollies doesn’t count as paying taxes.
davidwh
Posted Friday, August 23, 2013 at 2:47 pm | PERMALINK
I reckon boat buy back will be scrapped pretty quickly.
——–
Abbott, hOckey and cronies claim what they say stays , unlike labor who changes
if they change it they lied and will make it worse for newsltd/abbott coalition
Mr Speaker I table The Indonesian Fishing Fleet Re-construction Bill 2013 and move that it become an order of business for the next day of sitting.
Sean just as the smugglers look like going out of business today the Liberals gave them a new career.
how will it be funded, a new tax or new cut or has Tone really forgotten the first rule of economics.
Just how pathetic is the modern Liberal Party.
ST
Loosen up a bit. Have a laugh. It is likely to be the turning point in the campaign. Enjoy the boat joke.
BTW, why haven’t we seen Truthy and his tinny lately? Oh, no! Don’t tell me that he and Scoot…
Well, that WOULD explain it, wouldn’t it?
Labor will be governing after september 7th 2013 right through to 2016
HMAS Morrison
Actually i know it can be funded tax the PPL payments