At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.
GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:
• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.
• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.
• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).
Gillard the preferred Labor leader, you have to laugh if Newspoll asked that question.
gloryconsequence – No camparison? An ALP leader who had ousted the previous PM to get the job and a very rightwing Coalition leader who no one much liked but everyone bar Paul Keating believed would win and polls giving a clear Coalition victory right up to polling day. No, no comparison at all!!
Thanks CTAR1 but I am wondering if it is a positive direction at the moment
No not riding camels not sure if I saw any advertising for them) Had my fill of camel riding in Egypt in Bedouin country
when a big brute named Rambo(remind you of anyone 😀 ) took a marked nterest in my poor little female camel called Daisy
@davidwh/1551
Can they return a non-sitting member?
[I find it very hard to believe Georganas will lose Hindmarsh.]
Well it’s my opinion that if the statewide swing is around the amount that would require to unseat him, he’ll win on the basis of his community appeal. Likewise Kate Ellis. While both don’t have huge margins, they’ve been pretty consistent. Remember, both won their seats in the face of a Liberal landslide in 2004.
However, if the tide against Labor is huge here, no amount of local popularity will be enough to stop it.
[Paul Bongiorno @PaulBongiorno 9h
@latikambourke carbon tax hits 500 businesses. Whose tax is bigger?]
Onya Bongo, always with the facts. The rest of the press gallery are sheep.
Next leader of the ALP?
For god sakes, they better get it right and stick to him or her.
Labor will lose again in 2016 so it may as well be Shorten.
Although Chris Bowen is very prime minister material 😎
[Gillard the preferred Labor leader, you have to laugh if Newspoll asked that question.]
Would Newspoll be so cruel?!
ModLib – Hawke lost the 2PP to Peacock in 1990, Gillard lost the ALP majority in 2010, I was comparing what Keating and Rudd had as a base, ie very little.
Morpheus – The key point was there was a small 2PP swing to the ALP, and if that happened again Rudd would win. Of course, the biggest swing in 2010 was in Rudd’s home state of Queensland which if Rudd were to eke out a win would probably see an above average swing back!
Even though I prefer to refer to politicians by their last name only (unless there’s two of them with the same surname) I will refer to Kate Ellis by her full name so nobody thinks I am refering to Bob Ellis. Although statements like “Ellis might have trouble retaining Adelaide do make it obvious to whom I am referring”
OK Just being called for my plane hope Newspoll isn’t too bad
love to know why that one figure was released only so early
Rumour is they have.
confessions @1558
“Would Newspoll be so cruel?!”
Well, they did bait GIllard for the last few months with the same Gillard vs Rudd polling so anything is possible.
[gloryconsequence – No camparison? An ALP leader who had ousted the previous PM to get the job and a very rightwing Coalition leader who no one much liked but everyone bar Paul Keating believed would win and polls giving a clear Coalition victory right up to polling day. No, no comparison at all!!]
Except this does not feel like 1993 anymore. Then you could feel the ALP momentum, the wheels started to fall off the cooalition campaign quite early an it just coasted to a stop.
Andrew Fisher as well as Deakin was PM 3 times.
Also, those quotation marks at the end should be a few words earlier in the sentence. What is wrong with me lately? I am making so many typing errors!
Last three Newspolls in ’93 were 50.5, 50 and 50.5 to Coalition. Not as clearcut as some people remember it and there were commentators and psephs tipping a Keating win (just a minority).
😀
Palmer’s election flyer complete with CD on Titanic 11.
KB
Well I was unaware, like nearly everyone else I’d imagine, that there was no official betting on politics in 1993.
Still, 2/7 and 5/2 are a far cry from 1/10 and 6/1.
[Although Chris Bowen is very prime minister material]
Yeah, I don’t see it.
Prime Minister of GREAT DEALS on a car if you trade in your old car, maybe…
Four weeks ago it was reminiscent of 1993. But not anymore. Reminiscent of 1996…
[Well, they did bait GIllard for the last few months with the same Gillard vs Rudd polling so anything is possible.]
Surely no pollster would poll preferred Labor leader with 3 weeks until the election day?
KB – Indeed, but it got tighter and tighter by the last week, as Rudd would have to do now to have a chance
This is an article with which I agree. This GOP nonsense is where Tony Abbott is taking us.
http://theaimn.com/2013/08/18/if-you-are-a-republican-you-cannot-be-pro-life/
@Kevin Bonham
[Last three Newspolls in ’93 were 50.5, 50 and 50.5 to Coalition. Not as clearcut as some people remember it and there were commentators and psephs tipping a Keating win (just a minority).]
Yes remember this, it was close in the campaign much closer than months previously.
Especially using a deposed leader that is retiring at the election
[Surely no pollster would poll preferred Labor leader with 3 weeks until the election day?]
Anything to cause controversial fodder.
Dr Fumbles McStupid@1564
You couldn’t feel the ALP momentum early in the ’93 campaign. They had led big in polling in late ’92 then started ’93 in the 49s. Second and third weeks of the campaign they got a couple of bad Newspolls and were generally thought to be toast. The point where they recovered and got back into it – we’re not there yet.
On Gillard polling, if she is just preferred amongst ALP voters no change, she always outpolled Rudd amongst ALP supporters, while Rudd won with all voters. If all voters would be a change
I tipped Keating in 1993, I’d have taken the 5/2 back then if that’s what they were betting that’s for sure.
Cary M
Who do you like for next Labor leader?
Kevin – come on mate. You’re better than that. I’d like to know how a primary of 34 and approval slipping is going to be turned in to a 39+ primary by election day.
@gloryconsequence
[Four weeks ago it was reminiscent of 1993. But not anymore. Reminiscent of 1996…]
You must be psychic I was just thinking this too but we haven’t seen the ominous wipe-out polls like in 1996.
There are elements too of a reverse 2007 with comments about ‘great campaigner’ same said for Howard and reversing a 48-522pp.
[Anything to cause controversial fodder.]
But even still, it’d be pretty blatant agenda pushing.
@Kevin Bonham
I just remember the steady drop for the Coalition in 1992-3 and Keating playing the long game and playing it well.
[Messiah Rudd @Messiah_Rudd 11m
RT @1995Jacko: Preferred Labor leader (ALP voters) #Newspoll
Julia Gillard 48%
Kevin Rudd 32%
Paul Howes 20%]
yes confessions, cos the OM havent been blatantly agenda-pushing for the past how many years
so they have asked the JG question, Pure mischief making. Ridiculous
Well when the Liberals have won back government, they have usually bolted in.
1996 and 1975, so this may not be too different.
@sprocket_/1586
HAHAHAHAH so they did ask the question!
AGENDA PUSHING.
Paul Howes WTF?
Australia’s media: unelected swill.
How about preferred Labor leader, Rudd or Whitlam?
This is not just about Murdoch and the NBN. Its about the OM fighting for its survival. Looks like it wins this round
What about preferred Liberal leader, Abbott or Howard?
[Who do you like for next Labor leader?]
Dick Adams’ beard 😛
Seriously though, a uniter. I’d rather a boring Beazley type who can get the party to get its shit together ASAP. I’d take Albo for that role, TBH. (No, I don’t think he’d get elected PM).
Who do I think they will go with? Either Shorten or Bowen. Both of whom do have factional support and charisma and see themselves as PM material but it won’t be what the party needs after a loss.
gloryconsequence@1582
I’d wait and see if other pollsters are getting the same before assuming that is really the picture. We have had a pretty benign Galaxy, but it is not unusual lately for Galaxy to be benign just before a shift.
If we do get widespread 53s-54s this week it will be pretty much over. As it is I think the government’s chance is slim but not writing it off just yet.
Howard went for 11 years, Fraser for 8 years, Abbott minimum 6 could go 9, hell maybe 12 🙁
I’m not going to trust Newspoll anymore, such bullshit wanting to push the agenda when it doesn’t suit them.
Yes, and obviously ‘1995Jacko’ is a highly placed figure privy to advance Newspoll data, before Ghost Who Votes.
As opposed to any old jackass jerking off on twitter.