At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.
GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:
• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.
• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.
• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).
Mod Lib
I think Abbott could win 90 or more seats.
Yes, I think it is 85 to 95 at the moment, but usually everything doesnt go right so I am sticking with 85 but thinking the error is in the 95 direction
Good to see Abbott’s brainfart of a PPL roundly condemned by the major news bulletins.
[I think the CUTS issue wont bite because the opposition have been slippery about the size of their black hole.]
The ‘what will you lose if he wins’ line gets me wondering what I’ll win if Labor wins. I’m still waiting to hear this.
The last Newspoll had the Greens on 11% which was unusually high. You’d expect that to drop by at least 1% so this one will probably be 54-46 or 55-45.
Time for rudd to sack hawker. Start up the shredders boys !
[Labor Primary Vote: 34 (-1)]
Well thats going to result in an very ordinary 2PP
[Poll Economic Management: ALP 33 (-3) L/NP 45 (-3) ]
Everyone unimpressing the punters lately.
Gillard will be chortling over the chardy tonight!
Newspoll had it 54-46 midweek in the Australian, so looks like nothing to see here despite exaggerated claims on Twitter either side. The direction of the campaign will be clearer next weekend after the ALP ads have had time to impact and Wednesday’s town hall.
Should have known with PVO seeming excited the move was to the coalition
I like the line if Abbott wins you lose.
I really think people are not going to reward Labor given all their internal division above anything else.
When it comes to policy, they don’t know who to believe.
If Labor are going all negative, which it appears likely, they should target Abbott about his policy flakiness, tendency to exaggerate and not tell the truth.
This would have much more resonance than cuts, cuts, cuts
EdStJohn – Well as she left with 57-43 that is still an improvement of around 3 points from when she left for the ALP
gc
Basically what Rudd is proving with those ads is that you still can’t believe anything he says, like how Labor avoid negative ads.
I for one will be pre ordering Labor in Power V2.0 should be a hoot !
Dio/Boerwar: if you are talking about Mark Aldridge, Independent candidate for Wakefield, let me tell you a few things about him.
He has previously stood as a One Nation candidate in SA.
Since One Nation’s popularity has dropped off, he has stood as an Independent at both State an Federal elections.
Apparently he and his wife run a wildlife animal shelter and he also runs a second-hand car yard from the front yard of his property.
He has developed a recent reputation of inserting himself into campaigns/issues and using them to publicise his political ambitions. Most notable recently was the problems at Moorook Animal Shelter in the Riverland, where he appointed himself spokesperson, whipped up a lot of hysteria and then pissed off after leaving the campaign in a shambles. In the process, he also managed to stack the Moorook discussion board with sock-puppets whose sole purpose seemed to have been to remind everyone what a great guy Mark is! 😉
In short, he’s a joke.
Fun fact: in his political manifesto, he appears to indicate he’s a climate change sceptic. Yet on his website advertising his business, he claims to have “Adelaide’s only carbon neutral car yard”!
Second fun fact: he is the son of the Mayor of Salisbury, Gillian Aldridge, who is surprisingly quite sane.
@Dio/1414
It doesn’t look like playing nice is going to be any good.
BW
[There goes the kitchen sink.]
Must have been on the RO-RO.
Here is a list of seats that will probably go to the LNP
* = ones I have already said are “GORN” (already in the bag)
Lingiari *
Greenway
Robertson *
Lindsay *
Banks *
Reid *
Page
Eden-Monaro
Parramatta
Dobell *
Corangamite *
La Trobe *
McEwen
Bendigo
Hindmarsh
Adelaide
Wakefield
Bass *
Braddon *
Franklin
Lyon
[Andrew
Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 9:19 pm | PERMALINK
If Labor are going all negative, which it appears likely, they should target Abbott about his policy flakiness, tendency to exaggerate and not tell the truth.]
What do you think Labor have been trying for 4 years?.
I have my own views on Hawker’s MO and I just hope this campaign doesn’t go the way of the QLD campaign.
Where are Rudd’s positive ads?
Disunity is death
This government has removed two sitting PMs.
What more do you need to know.
P.S. The perception is so bad that the country are about to elect the worst candidate and team ever for federal office
Well a worse than 53/47 defeat will spell the end of Rudd’s political career.
This leadership internal division which has plagued Labor since the removal of Rudd in 2010 must NEVER EVER happen again.
Policies even values are secondary.
A party MUST have INTEGRITY and UNITY 😎
[I really think people are not going to reward Labor given all their internal division above anything else.]
Its certainly the key obstacle the ALP face. The sheer fact of having two leaders lately.
[When it comes to policy, they don’t know who to believe.]
Yes, both parties losing ground on economic credibility roughly correlates with this. Usually we see decreasing indecision on key issues like economy – but indecision is rising.
I have no idea whats going on in Queensland.
I don’t think QLD people decide who they vote for until the day.
I still think ALP will win Hasluck and Canning.
And bye bye to Adam Ant
Yes Andrew.
I wish Turnbull was leader.
chinda
So he could be referred to as a “colourful character”. Wonder what he was arrested for.
Economic management Galaxy:
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 13m
#Galaxy Poll Economic Management: ALP 33 (-3) L/NP 45 (-3) #ausvotes
Dio you are onto something.
For a leader that lost a lot of faith over climate change, and not being true to his word he
1. Scrapped the carbon tax, again seemingly like the issue was not as important as he used to think it
2. Lurched to the right on AS, when he said after he was dumped he did not want to do
3. Launched negative ads when he said it was going to be a positive campaign.
Of course, Abbott has far more faults than this, but thats another story
[Newspoll had it 54-46 midweek in the Australian, so looks like nothing to see here despite exaggerated claims on Twitter either side. The direction of the campaign will be clearer next weekend after the ALP ads have had time to impact and Wednesday’s town hall.]
More rubbish.
The direction of the campaign is clear now.
All this ‘wait until next weekend’ stuff is delusional.
It is gone. It was two weeks ago. It’s time to hold on to as much as we can, and prepare for Abbott.
Simon Baker@1409
That was a Newspoll of two specific and not very representative seats.
The reaction of the Gillard supporters on sept 8 will be something to behold. The Tone is one lucky politician , the least likely internal candidate in 2007 will be PM six years later with a bitterly divided alp in a civil war for the spoils of defeat.
Twitter seems alive with a bunch of widely varying “leaked” Newspoll numbers. Ranging from dead even to a Coalition blowout to massive preference for Julia Gillard as ALP leader.
I think there’s some collective silly buggers going on.
[Bernard Keane @BernardKeane 2m
OMG amazing poll result in tomorrow’s Essential!]
😆
Taking the mickey out of PvO.
Andrew
He also went from committed anti-SSM to ardently pro-SSM purely for political reasons.
[1405
Diogenes
Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 9:15 pm | PERMALINK
The last Newspoll had the Greens on 11% which was unusually high. You’d expect that to drop by at least 1% so this one will probably be 54-46 or 55-45.]
ALP got to 48% tpp from Pv of 34% in 10 March Newspoll on back of 44% to Libs and 11% each to greens and others
Agree glory, it is clear that Labor’s position is getting worse. No point being in denial about it. PV down in all major polls except Essential and Morgan
Dio
Just saw the suggestion on VMO hours
What an act of genius! How to destroy the relationship with the key workers!
I take it this is so call back hours will be paid at the ordinary rate.
Of course the answer is to agree and only work the specified hours. See what that does to NEAT and NEST.
Ed St John, I agree with you for the first time ever. Abbott is the luckiest leader of the opposition of all time. Both in terms of Labor disunity, but also in terms of the media treatment of him
Andrew – the primary was down in Morgan. Very down.
[Its certainly the key obstacle the ALP face. The sheer fact of having two leaders lately.]
Maybe it would’ve been better to keep Gillard as leader, as I suggested. At least she would’ve been able to campaign on Labor’s achievements this term, and had something positive to run with instead of ‘vote for us cause we’re not Tony Abbott!’
1394
A double dissolution may reduce the Greens numbers in the Senate but the Green vote would have to dramatically collapse like the Democrats did. The Greens do not occupy the centre ground like the Democrats and DLP did before them and thus do not face the same conflicts that destroyed them politically. The Greens vote looks like dropping at this election, like it did in Tasmania 1992-98 but it will go back up again like it did in Tasmania 2002-2010.
The Greens are not destroyed.
I think “colourful character” is putting it very mildly 😉
KB – They also had mention of a national poll at the same time giving those figures
Edward StJohn
Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 9:26 pm | PERMALINK
The reaction of the Gillard supporters on sept 8 will be something to behold. The Tone is one lucky politician , the least likely internal candidate in 2007 will be PM six years later with a bitterly divided alp in a civil war for the spoils of defeat.
——— glib nonsense – so HE did it all alone, by luck and cleverness? – dont think so – little matter of media and private interests. yes some luck with alp nsw loons (all small men they seem) but dont valorise you know whosome
Mark Textor Liberal polling guru has some advice
http://twitter.com/markatextor/status/368942451483889664/photo/1
[Centre
Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 9:09 pm | Permalink
Maybe the best outcome for the Greens would be if they lost the balance of power in the Senate.
If Abbott calls a DD I think the Greens will be destroyed.]
Well center, it likes the green vote is going up, it might be time to get over it.
Edward StJohn
Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 9:16 pm | PERMALINK
Gillard will be chortling over the chardy tonight!
—another liberal clown
wrong and wrong and wrong again … maliciousness does not become you
Simon Baker@1444
Where was this? No-one else has mentioned it if so.
EdStJohn/Confessions – The ALP and Rudd are now going on the attack on costings and Abbott’s cuts, and there is a townhall between Rudd and Abbott midweek, who knows what will happen? In any case, 52-48, or even 54-46 is a lot better than the 57-43 Gillard had when she was ousted. As for Abbott, is he does get in, once austerity starts to bite and the ALP takes the lead Turnbull will be licking his lips, I would die laughing if Abbott gets ousted by Turnbull after he himself ousted him to get the leadership. There is no love lost between Turnbull and Abbott even if the personal loathing does not quite match Gillard and Rudd!