Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling

The first substantial national-level poll in nearly week gives the Coalition an election-winning lead, but fails to corroborate the bloodbath that yesterday’s automated polls were pointing to.

At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.

GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:

• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.

• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.

• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling”

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  2. OC

    We will just ignore it, as we ignore most things the Health Department says. They only follow through on about 10% of their announcements and the back down on most of those in the end anyway.

    The Health Minister and SA Health CEO will be tossed out in March anyway. They aren’t going to try and push this through before the election.

  5. ALP election tactic – just got the final draft

    1. Resuscitate Messiah Kev – tick
    2. Superglue the lips of everyone in the cabinet and especially anyone who has an axe to grind – tick
    3. Make Messiah Kev sound like a douche in regards to trapping Abbott into a debate and then make sure Messiah Kev brings in cheat-notes and relentlessly scratches through them like a headless chook – tick
    4. Release hypcritical border policy held together by ants clutching hands and likely to fall on its face within day (PNG will ensure it) – tick
    5. Denounce the evil CT and “terminate it” but forget to tell the voters that billions will be shovelled overseas in increasing abouts just so that Messiah Kevin can polish his knob – tick
    6. Tell Messiah Kev to try and bolster the votes in QLD but in reality his talking actually makes the vote go south – tick
    7. Panic and defrost Beattie who could only possibly make the situation worse – tick
    8. Release NT policy that was formulated on a bandaid and not let anyone else in the ALP know about it – Tick
    9. Forget to tell Messiah Kev that the LNP have already got dibs on NT – tick
    10. Forget to tell Shorten anything but as usual Shorten agrees with the PM despite not hearing what he said – tick
    11. Back-peddle on car industry crushing overnight FBT changes by throwing more dollars into the bonfire – tick
    12. Try and criticise the ludicrous Abbott PPL scheme despite the union overlords pushing the ALP to try and match it – tick
    13. Pad up the room for Messiah Kev on 8th September – tick

  9. Labor are preferencing Wikileaks quite highly given they said Assange was a criminal whose passport they tried to take away.

    They must have been visited by the spirit of charity and forgiveness. 😀

  11. KB – I may have misread it, but it said ‘on national figures’, maybe they were just using the marginals poll to apply nationally

  13. [Diogenes
    Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 9:40 pm | PERMALINK
    Labor are preferencing Wikileaks quite highly given they said Assange was a criminal whose passport they tried to take away.]

    what! you joking…….

  17. Simon B 1450
    [I would die laughing if Abbott gets ousted by Turnbull after he himself ousted him to get the leadership. There is no love lost between Turnbull and Abbott even if the personal loathing does not quite match Gillard and Rudd!]
    Firstly I think you’re gonna live Simon.
    1. Abbott’s defeat of Turnbull was not personal and acrimonious but on a point of policy, and they certainly don’t indicate any tension between them and disagreement on policy is more tolerated within Libs than Labs
    2. Turnbull is not especially liked within Libs
    3. Abbott is not especially disliked among his colleagues (cf Kevin Rudd)
    4. Abbott has served the Libs faithfully and worked hard in the leadership for this coming win; Rudd jumped on the leadership after Beazley & Crean had done the hard yards and Labor was already favoured to win.
    5. Rudd is a …. not relevant!

  19. [geoffrey
    Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 9:45 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    not really. who would have thought]

    i suppose Labor will be outraged when senator Assange leaks committee documents

  21. So. Time to look at the up and coming Labor MPs (ie who could conceivably represent the future) who will be left/incoming at the election.

    Nova Peris in the NT
    Tim Watts in Gellibrand
    Jason Clare (assuming Labor hold Blaxland)
    Amanda Rishworth (assuming same with Kingston)
    David Feeney in Batman (poor media appearances never hurt Barnaby)
    Tanya Plibersek
    Penny Wong

    Who else?

  22. zoidlord @1458

    You really need to get some sunlight and fresh air I suspect if you can’t see the intended pun..

    Anyhow, back to reality.

    What has been quite interesting in the last 2 weeks is the change in posts/comments on Fairfax sites. Usually a bit of a ALP lover’s paradise the tone has changed dramatically from a massive love for Messiah Kev (and counting how many seats he would win and how Abbott will be his bitch) in the early weeks after his resurrection. Now, aside from a few rusties keeping vigil, the comments have become a lot more negative towards the ALP and especially Messiah Kev. I would expect that from Murdoch press comments but was an interesting transformation on “The Age” and “SMH”.

    Anyhow, the election has still got 3 weeks to go and anything can happen. However, the ALP must win a lot more seats than it loses and coming from a minority government (with already a 1 seat deficit) its going to be a hard ask. I am not sure if Kevin will save a lot more seats than GIllard as I suspect the ALP numbers would have tightened during an election and she certainly would have been a more formidable campaigner than Messiah Kev who looks like her has been neutered.

    Interesting times ahead.

  23. Simon Baker – that was an ABC misreport. Kevin B is right.

    [Maybe it would’ve been better to keep Gillard as leader, as I suggested. At least she would’ve been able to campaign on Labor’s achievements this term, and had something positive to run with instead of ‘vote for us cause we’re not Tony Abbott!’]

    Well I know you feel this way Confessions but the damage was done in 2010. Ill take Galaxy’s 52-48 as a big improvement on where Gillard was headed.

  24. [@wal kolla/1462

    Only primary figure so far (34 for ALP)

    Waiting for the rest.

    Seems dodgy at best.]

    Ok.

    34 + 10 +2 = 46-54 2PP… hmm probably about right.
    54 – 9 = 45PV to LNP.
    Less than 3 weeks to the election too.

  25. Interesting viewing for those with half an hour to spare:

    1993 pre-election Lateline:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMfouNq3Sjg&feature=youtu.be

    Lots of common aspects with this campaign thus far in terms of where commentary is going. But only relevant if Labor avoids going down much further.

    Note that in 1993 the betting markets got the overall winner wrong; the only one of the last nine where this happened (though 2010 was a close shave.)

  28. Diogenes@1470

    Has anyone seen any polling to indicate what Assange’s chances are?

    No useful Vic Senate polling yet to my knowledge. Senate polling is a bit of a mug’s game anyway.

    There were all those dodgy polls reporting percentages who would consider voting for micro party X but they are absolutely worthless.

  29. @morphous/1472

    sarcasm doesn’t transfer that well over the internet, that’s why people invented simples like 😛 /sarcasm etc.

    @wal kolla/1474

    Yup.

  30. [Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 6m
    No Carbon Tav Climate Sceptics Party put Labor ahead of Coalition in NSW, VIC and Tas. huh? #ausvotes]

    Very odd.

  32. Mick77 – Gillard was more popular with the ALP faithfull than Rudd, just as Abbott is more popular with the Liberal faithful than Turnbull, but both Rudd and Turnbull are more popular with the public as a whole. It was also Rudd who got the ALP into power, Beazley had lost 2 elections and Crean polled poorly.

  34. [I think Jason Clare would probably make a good leader of the ALP]

    I reckon his time is coming, just not yet.

    Electing another woman as leader would be a good eff you to those who so cruelly vilified Gillard, but I can’t see it happening.

  36. [@AntonyGreenABC: Preliminary scan of Senate prefs, Greens lose seat to Libs in SA, gain 1 from ALP in both Vic and NSW #ausvotes]

  40. confessions @1484

    Yeah. I suspect another female leader might be a bit painful for the ALP just now but if anyone can do it again, the ALP will. And kudos to them ..

  42. I’m forgetting Mark Butler, Gai Brodtmann and Andrew Leigh.

    There is also Sam Dastyari, but after all the crap with NSW Branch, I’d prefer him kept far away from the leadership!

  44. [Morpheus you forgot to add Hire an American campaign team because they know what is best for Australia]

    The Tea Party tactics do seem to have worked a treat for the Liberals.

  45. So back from the Wakefield candidates debate (well ALP v Lib, anyway.) A few points:

    1. This debate will make no difference to anything. About 100 people were in the audience, most of whom were supporters or 3rd party/indies. The fate of Wakefield will probably be subject to the greater swing in the state.

    2. Party hacks are even more annoying in person than they are on the internet.

    3. Grazing one’s knee hurts like hell especially when you twist your angle doing so (don’t ask).

    4. Champion (ALP) won the debate. Chalk it down to experience though, more than anything. There were, however, a few cringeworthy moments from him and he was a lot more negative than Zorich (Lib).

    5. Zorich was much more personable and likable and on opening and closing came off a lot better (playing the “I’m a passionate member of the community who only wants to help fix the economy; not interested in a political career” schtick). He was also good at one liners. However, he was like a deer caught in headlights at a retorts or difficult questions. However, that’s his not his strength and he should stick to playing up his “humble community man” persona.

    It was a load of fun. The rules were a lot more lax, so there was a bit of heckling and cheering from the audience. Although, at points, that did start getting annoying.

    I cannot predict how Wakefield will go but my gut says Champion will retain it.

  47. Sorry Carey:

    Have to disagree with you, I reckon Wakefield is gone, along with Hindmarsh.

    I will let you keep Adelaide and Makin though!

    🙂

  48. By the way the worst 2PP a government has recorded during an election in Newspoll but still gone on to win is 46.5 (Keating). Howard in ’04 had a 47.5, Howard in ’98 had a 47 (but didn’t win the 2PP anyway). Fraser in 1980 had a Morgan that comes out to about 46.3.

  49. Good idea getting rid of Gillard and Rudd is such a great campaigner, finally (a sycophant enthused on Twitter) a professional

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