At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.
GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:
• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.
• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.
• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).
JuanKRudd is talking the economy down now.
#positivepolitics
William
[I had occasion earlier to observe that one of Socialist Equality Party’s tickets in NSW had the Coalition ahead of Labor. Closer inspection reveals they have lodged three tickets and scattered preferences all over the shop, presumably in a deliberate attempt to ensure their preference distribution is as meaningless as possible.]
Their view these days is that all the major parties are bourgeois, so preferring one to the other is unwarranted. They want valid votes so they have little choice but to split their tickets.
Boerwar,
Has your Ms Burt acquired an extra “l” in her given name?
I am getting more positive feedback walking the streets this election compared to 2010. It may be different in other areas but people seem to be open to persuasion and many have not decided how to vote yet.
BW
Just in case I didn’t make it clear, I think what you are doing in the Phillipines is great.
Socrates@1184
I hate the way the word ‘aspirational’ has been appropriated to mean selfish individualism.
Everyone I know has aspirations. The ALP should be encouraging those aspirations that lead to a better society such as you frequently espouse.
Aspirations for a decent education for all kids, a Health System that caters for all with high quality care, a dynamic economy with business and workers collaborating to raise productivity, true ‘full employment’, cities served by efficient public transport etc.
I eschew the aspirations of the narrow ‘what’s in it for me’? mentality fostered by the Liberal party and their allies.
[Their view these days is that all the major parties are bourgeois, so preferring one to the other is unwarranted.]
And all the minor ones, it seems. Two of their three Victorian tickets have Family First ahead of the Greens.
Splitters.
rua
I would agree with you on that there seems to be much less hostility to Labor.
1198 – The US is actually quite tough on white collar crime relatively speaking. Although some may have got away with it, others like Madoff and Enron execs did not
I think we can safely say that when is done, CC, the ALP will definitely have run a more postive campaign than the LNP.
Bemused
I agree with you on the theft and abuse of the word “aspirational”. I was only using it because it is the label Howard stole for that purpose, and I think this group apply it to themselves. Personally, aspire to a more equitable world, that tries to live sustainably.
William,
Is David Wirrpanda a chance of getting in?
Looks as if she has http://www.aec.gov.au/election/act/canberra.htm
How could you possible vote for someone calling herself “consultant”!
CC, I rated it probable before Kevin Rudd came back, but can’t see it happening now. However, I could be underestimating the Wikileaks vote, or indeed how many votes the Nationals are going to poach from the Greens. It will be interesting when we have Antony Green’s Senate calculators to play around with.
[NormanK @NormanK4 now
The Greens must be over the moon with the way that WikiLeaks has rewarded them for their loyalty.
#auspol #ausvotes] pic.twitter.com/P1KSFpPRmy
At the Wakefield candidate’s debate. Just had Nick Champion (ALP)’s opening. A minute was about the car industry, then it was about the bad stuff Zorich (Lib) would do. Will post on Zorich’s opening when it’s over.
[The Greens must be over the moon]
Nothing unusual.
A simple down to earth explanation why LNP Fraudband is a total piece of crap and how it compares to ALP NBN
Glass is Class, Copper is for Creeps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=NB7hYWTnak8
Seems like the ALP has hit the red alert button with the new ad. There go Rudd’s ratings.
Darn,
Generally it is a good ad but and this wont be noticed by most but there were two parts that i might have worded in more detail.
The bit on super and the bit on the 12,000 job loses.
Simon 1210
On that issue we must strongly disagree. The US is tough on corporate crime that actually makes the courts. The problem is those that never get there. Read articles by Matt Taibi and many others on non prosecution of Wall Street after 2008. The most glaring bad action by Obama was to send back Elizabeth Barrett to her academic job when she started to investigate fraud associated with CDOs and CDS deals.
Enron was a decade ago, and Madoff turned himself in after multiple tip-offs about him were ignored, so no prizes there. The US financial regulators were fatally weakened by Bush Jnr at the time ONeill resigned as secretary. Obama has never rebuilt them. Read Ackerloff and Shiller who discuss this at length in Animal Spirits.
“How many votes the Nationals are going to poach from the Greens” should read, “how many votes the Nationals are going to poach from the Liberals“.
Zorich’s opening began quite warmly and positively, declaring his background then spelling out his vision. However, when he went negative, it was quite fiery and slightly offputting
@William/1223
Are you saying Nationals will get votes from the Liberals than any other party?
How many seats you talking about (and comparing from the 2010 election?).
It’s a pity the Anarchists don’t have a party. Their Senate preferences would be interesting.
William:
[And all the minor ones, it seems. Two of their three Victorian tickets have Family First ahead of the Greens.]
For the SEP, nearly everyone is a major party … 😉 (Hence my “all”)
Whats the chances of the Libs picking up 3 Senate seats in Tassie?
Boerwar@1186
Please don’t ignore the lunacy bit, it was clearly directed at what you proselytize rather than you personally. Reflect on it.
I was interested in what you said about Filipinos seeking out Aussies as bosses because of their respectful, decent and fair attitudes. I can believe this although it is unfortunately not universal.
Interesting too your comments on the Catholic Church. Some Australian Catholic Missionaries like Father Brian Gore have done wonderful work but I think the hierarchy is not on balance helpful, particularly with their attitude to birth control.
But even worse are the evangelical protestant fundamentalist nutters who are now descending on the Philippines and winning converts and sucking their blood.
The Philippines is a great case for secularism.
Well well well. Loads of negative reaction to the new PPL policy from rural australians who see it as a free kick for rich city folk.
No wonder the Nats HATE IT.
Will it even get up? Id say if tha LNP needs the Nats to form government – it wont get up.Not in this form anyway.
Interesting to hear the ALP saying there’s been a swing back to them since they started running hard on the cuts.
Mind you, that was an “internal poll” source, and I wouldnt give you tuppence for those, from either side.
Simon 1210
Further to my 1222, just for starters, see these:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/gangster-bankers-too-big-to-jail-20130214
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/04/30/the-failure-to-prosecute-corporate-crime-undermines-u-s-justice/
And compare this list of convicted US corporate criminals pre 2000 with the lack of action since.
http://www.corporatecrimereporter.com/top100.html
[Whats the chances of the Libs picking up 3 Senate seats in Tassie?]
None, how do you like them apples. 😛
[Latika Bourke @latikambourke 2h
Had a coalition MP tell me if it comes down to their vote they’ll cross the floor to prevent Tony Abbott’s PPL scheme becoming law.]
[Whats the chances of the Libs picking up 3 Senate seats in Tassie?]
Very high indeed.
[Are you saying Nationals will get votes from the Liberals than any other party?
How many seats you talking about (and comparing from the 2010 election?).]
I’m referring specifically to the WA Senate race. Maybe David Wirrpanda will cause a significant number of Liberals to vote Nationals instead. I’d doubt it though.
Champion is being more technical and intellectual but Zorich is getting the one liners in. Audience full of hacks of both party and unruly!
rua @1232
I am loving your work!
[None, how do you like them apples. ]
I wouldn’t be so sure… Greens and Labor are toxic in Tassie at the moment if you check the polling.
From what I see on the ABC Elections website the Libs only need ~45% of the vote in the Senate to get 3 seat outright.
I like those odds!
@William/1234
Ah ok.
At last election they lost 4 seats (at 6).
Socrates@1212
Latham also did his bit and continues to pander to that element.
Gh @1233
Given that it is highly unlikely it won’t come down to that member’s vote that tweet means virtually nothing.
If Megan Gale asked me out to dinner, I’d go.
This little black duck@1214
Did she leave out the hyphen? 👿
[(UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).]
William:
Don’t you mean undecided?
MTBW @1236
And the smack down from WB @1234?
Heh.
I do, ML.
…thought so…
Jism
It was an apple joke. 😛
cc
What?
1231 – In the US it is common to see Wall Street traders, corporate executives led away in handcuffs. However, they have to have broken the law to do so. Banks like Lehmans may have gone under in 2008 and Wall St executives like Dick Fuld and the head of Merrill Lynch removed from their jobs, but while they may have made stupid decisions the evidence is not clear they broke the law, and however much you may want to you cannot arrest people for an offence that was not illegal at the time. Finance laws may be tightened in future, but they cannot be imposed retrospectively
I reckon that anti Abbott ad is a product of the three Obama recruits Rudd brought over. It will be interesting to see if it cuts through.
bemused
This has a long, long history.
The friar orders helped the Spanish civil suck the blood out of the Philippines for over three centuries. When the US stole the Philippines off the Spanish AND off the Filipinos (killing numerous of the latter and making wholesale use of concentration camps), the US did one unambiguously good thing: it disestablished the Roman Catholic Church and restributed the land. At that stage the friar orders owned outright one out of every fifteen acres of arable land in the Philippines.
While researching Philippine’s history I came across the following:
Taft Ave in Manila is named after this chap. When I emailed it to a regular user of Taft Ave today, his comment was that the traffic has not speeded up since.
In relation to the evangelicals, everywhere you go around Manila you see ‘Eglesia ng Christo’: brand spanking new churches and huge cathedrals, paid for by the tithes of converts. And by tithes, I mean tithes.
In terms of general actions, the RC church is still very conservative and is conducive, IMHO, to poverty.
OTOH, from time-to-time a churchman gets up and does the right thing and makes a significant difference: IMHO it was Cardinal Sin’s intervention that ensured that the final overthrow of Marcos was relatively, and I do mean relatively, bloodless.
The latter’s son, btw, is currently supposed to be thinking about tossing his hat in the ring for the next round of presidential elections when Aquino’s term runs out.