Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling

The first substantial national-level poll in nearly week gives the Coalition an election-winning lead, but fails to corroborate the bloodbath that yesterday’s automated polls were pointing to.

At last, an actual national poll – and it’s not quite the train wreck for Labor that yesterday’s marginals polling might have had them bracing for. The Coalition has an election-winning lead, the outer edge of the error margin notwithstanding, but it’s of the relatively modest order of 52-48, compared with 51-49 in last week’s poll. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 36%, with the Coalition steady on 45%. The poll also gauges opinion on the Coalition’s plan to abolish the school kids’ bonus, and which party has the better parental leave scheme. Both results are consistent with the usual pattern of poll respondents supporting spending and opposing taxing (company levies evidently notwithstanding), with 47% opposing the school kids’ bonus abolition against 38% supporting, and the more extravagant Coalition parental leave scheme favoured over Labor’s 44% to 36%.

GhostWhoVotes also relays a series of electorate-level ReachTEL results from well-chosen Victorian seats, which I presume have been commissioned by the Sunday Herald Sun. In turn:

• The Liberals lead in Labor’s two most marginal seats in the state, by 53-47 in Deakin and 56-44 in Corangamite. In the most marginal Liberal seat of Aston, the Liberals are found to be well ahead at 63.4-36.6.

• A long-overdue result for Melbourne suggests Adam Bandt’s primary vote will not be high enough to survive the looming flood of Liberal preferences to Labor. Bandt is on 33.5% against 33.8% for Labor candidate Cath Bowtell.

• A result for Indi suggests Sophie Mirabella indeed has a fight on her hands from independent Cathy McGowan, as media chatter has increasingly indicated. Mirabella leads McGowan 43.5% to 23.3% on the primary vote, but McGowan would presumably benefit from a very tight flow of Labor and Greens preferences. (UPDATE: It turns out this doesn’t exclude 7.1% decided, so it should be more like 47% Mirabella to 25% McGowan, which would get Mirabella home).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,633 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Coalition; ReachTEL Victorian marginals polling”

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  1. [Justin Barbour ‏@justinbarbour 3m
    Lib whistleblower claims Abbott tried to block Fiona Scott’s nomination because it was based on her looks. http://bit.ly/17AmSYS #ausvotes]

    Spicer’s report was based on an Independent Australia article by Kevin Lee who reported on his experiences trying for Liberal preselection himself.

    Abbott denies Lee’s claims. Who to believe?

  2. The former head of the collapsed Tasmanian timber company Gunns is facing a maximum penalty of five years in prison, after admitting to insider trading.

    A FORMER chief stockbroker who sold his clients’ shares in a fishery company soon before its share price plummeted has been convicted of insider trading and fined $30,000.

    An Australian financial analyst could face up to 25 years in a US jail an insider-trading scheme.

    Geez it would be terrible if business men were ripping off investors proving that while Union Officials misuse money they are no different .

    Names Like Bond, Skase spring to mind….

  3. MTBW @1247

    ruawake @1232 said there was no chance of the Libs picking up 3 Senate seats in response to ST@1228.

    You said @1236 “loving your work to ruawake’s @1232.

    William @1234 smacked him down saying it was highly likely the libs will win 3 seats.

    How hard is that to understand?

  4. Carey,
    Thank you for the updates on the Wakefield forum. I was unable to attend, so I am grateful for the info. I met the LIb candidate in a shopping centre. He seemed a nice guy who had his lines down pat.

    He was President (?) of the local SANFL football club and owns a string of shops, sport-stores i think, so he is very in with the sports crowds.

  8. Do any L-NP candidates comment on anything anymore? Ted O’Brien has been gagged after saying housing and homelessness is a State issue.

  9. I think Labor should go huge, in terms of its advertising budget, on the NBN issue. It really does cut through, and this really is a pivotal moment in the nation’s history in this regard.

  11. Fran Barlow @ 1087: Thanks for that explanation of “single member PR”. Interesting. I followed stages 1 to 4 easily, but wasn’t sure how stages 5 and 6 are supposed to operate. Can you give a hypothetical example? Also, are you aware of such a system being used elsewhere? (It looks similar in some ways, but not identical, to the MMP system used in New Zealand, Germany, Lesotho etc.)

  14. CC

    I of course was relating to rua’s general comments hard though that may be for you to understand.

    Did your parents ever tell you that if you have nothing nice to say then you should say nothing at all?

  20. Simon 1248

    That was true prior to 2000, but not much now. I can only urge you to read some of the links I have given you on this, or Elizabeth Barrett’s work. There were many massive breakages of existing laws leading up to the GFC.

    The SEC switched to a policy of negotiated non-prosecutions after 2000 that has made prosecution of banks rare, and jailing of bankers almost obsolete. See this conference for an explanation:
    http://www.corporatecrimereporter.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/brochure2.pdf

    To give just two specific examples, the Taibi story related to HSBC links to both Mafia and terrorist money laundering, major crimes beyond any fraud rules:
    [The deal was announced quietly, just before the holidays, almost like the government was hoping people were too busy hanging stockings by the fireplace to notice. Flooring politicians, lawyers and investigators all over the world, the U.S. Justice Department granted a total walk to executives of the British-based bank HSBC for the largest drug-and-terrorism money-laundering case ever. Yes, they issued a fine – $1.9 billion, or about five weeks’ profit – but they didn’t extract so much as one dollar or one day in jail from any individual, despite a decade of stupefying abuses.]

    Another classic example was the “robobanker” scandal, which could have sent hundreds to jail. Again, none were.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_foreclosure_crisis

    I think your views are badly out of date re: US financial regulation. It was once tough, but has not been for a decade or more.

  21. Boerwar@1250

    bemused

    In relation to the evangelicals, everywhere you go around Manila you see ‘Eglesia ng Christo’: brand spanking new churches and huge cathedrals, paid for by the tithes of converts. And by tithes, I mean tithes.

    In terms of general actions, the RC church is still very conservative and is conducive, IMHO, to poverty.

    OTOH, from time-to-time a churchman gets up and does the right thing and makes a significant difference: IMHO it was Cardinal Sin’s intervention that ensured that the final overthrow of Marcos was relatively, and I do mean relatively, bloodless.

    The latter’s son, btw, is currently supposed to be thinking about tossing his hat in the ring for the next round of presidential elections when Aquino’s term runs out.

    The ‘Iglesia ni Christo’ are a Philippines home grown cult and certainly extend well beyond Manila.

    I was referring to US based Protestant Fundamentalist Nutters who are moving in, just as they are in South America.

    The Mor(m)ons and JWs have been there for quite a while, but are being joined by a new wave complete with Televangelists and all the other parasites, hangers on and scamsters.

    And if I offend anyone here than tough luck, grow a brain.

  22. [gloryconsequence
    Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 7:35 pm | PERMALINK
    54-46 Newspoll my prediction]

    56-44 is my treasury forecast (could blow out a tad though)

  26. [Antony Green ‏@AntonyGreenABC 2m
    No Carbon Tax Climate Sceptics have put Labor ahead of Coalition in Victoria as well ?? Both before Greens #ausvotes]

  28. Sean Tisme@1228

    Whats the chances of the Libs picking up 3 Senate seats in Tassie?

    I put it at about 80% but it may be higher than that. I’ll revise this when Antony’s Senate calculator is up; want to have a muck about with it and see if I can get Shooters + Fishers or Family First up if I assume Libs just short of 3 quotas.

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/prospects-for-tasmanian-senate-race.html

    William – is your current aggregate for Tas mostly ReachTEL and Morgan or do you have a fair amount of other stuff in it?

  29. A final comment on the Labor attak add. i think the strategy is correct, and the targetting is correct. However I do find the execution heavy handed. If so, I suspect others will find it more so. Same theme, but recut please.

  31. Pedant

    [{I} wasn’t sure how stages 5 and 6 are supposed to operate. Can you give a hypothetical example?]

    OK …

    Let’s say that Party A gets 37% of primaries. Party B gets 36% of primaries. Party C gets 11.7% of primaries. Party D gets 3% of primaries. There are 150 seats.

    Party A gets 150 * 0.37 rounded down to nearest integer, thus 55 seats.

    Party B gets 150 * 0.36 rounded down to nearest integer, thus 54 seats.

    Party C gets 150 * 0.117 rounded down to nearest integer, thus 17 seats.

    Patty D 150 * 0.03 rounded down to nearest integer, thus 4 seats.

    Total remaining after allocation: 150 -(4+17+54+55) = 20 with 20 to go to winner on preferences.

    A candidate who for example gets 55% of primaries is ranked above one on 53% of primaries. Thus the first seat is allocated to the country’s champion primary winner. The next to the second place getter and so forth until Party A or Party B or Party C or Party D as the case may be get all their seats. In some cases, the second place getter or even the third in that seat will win on the distribution. That’s OK because the third place getter in one seat is really representing those in other seats who voted for his or her party. They have the same policy after all.

  34. Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust

    via @chriskkenny: 8pm #Viewpoint Campaign heats up with @DreyfusMark @ScottMorrisonMP @jkalbrechtsen @PfrayEd also #Newspoll preview #ausvo

  35. The Abbott “direct action” plan to pay companies to reduce carbon emissions is somewhat like the US government payments to farmers.

    US farm subsidies, which have been around for many years, are supposed to encourage individual farmers to reduce production of specified crops when total production is high and therefore market prices are low.

    Of course, the scheme is open to significant rorting and tends to be a ‘pork barrel’ exercise to gain votes in rural areas. The net result is that eligible farmers’ incomes are increased at taxpayer expense and output is often not decreased, resulting in surplus production which is dumped on export markets, to the annoyance of other agricultural producers including Australia.

    It is not hard to see how the Abbott subsidy scheme could be similarly rorted at taxpayer expense.

  36. [MTBW
    Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 7:40 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel

    Heaps of Get Up correspondence coming via email.]

    Cheers, have not seen peep from them in eden monaro.

  37. [alias
    Posted Sunday, August 18, 2013 at 7:29 pm | Permalink
    I think Labor should go huge, in terms of its advertising budget, on the NBN issue. It really does cut through, and this really is a pivotal moment in the nation’s history in this regard.    ]

    Alias

    That anti Abbott ad that was discussed earlier would lend itself to something like that. Point out the difference in speed etc plus the exorbitant connection cost of Fraudband and end with:

    IF HE WINS YOU LOSE.

    It’s such a simple message. I really like it.

  39. @Darn/1287

    It’s also good that it doesn’t say how much are the cuts are, but rather, where will they be cut.

    So even if there is little amount of cuts, or large amounts of cuts, it’s targeted at Abbott and Coalition Party.

  41. By my calculations a Conservative controlled senate should be a shoe-in… assuming you consider the Democratic Labor PArty and Nick Xenophon as Conservatives.

    The Coalition need 38 Votes in the Senate. In the 2010 Election they won 18 seats for the 6 year term. Assuming they do as well this election(pretty much a given) they will have a total of 36 Senate Seats. Xenophon will probably win his seat and then you have the DLP Candidate continuing their senate term.

    So 38 Senate Votes. Now consider the Coalition pick up an extra senate seat in Tassie(likely) that gives Coalition 37 seats just by themselves.

    Perhaps there is a seat to pick up elsewhere and we have Coalition Senate Majority fun.

  49. Socrates – The rules are presently being changed on financial regulation, as to the examples you mention, they are not really directly connected to the GFC and in any case whether prosecutors decide to fine offenders for breaches of offences rather than jail them is not really an issue related to a breach of the law. The GFC was a problem of incompetence, not clear-cut breaking of the law

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