Election guide and BludgerTrack review

The Poll Bludger’s guide to the 150 House of Representatives electorates is now in business. Also featured: a closer look at the BludgerTrack poll aggregate’s movements since the start of the campaign.

The Poll Bludger’s federal election guide is now live and accessible from the link on the sidebar. Featured are profiles of all 150 House of Representatives electorates, in one shape or another. Comprehensive profiles are featured for Labor seats up to around 12% in margin and Coalition seats up to around 3%. Much of the content will be familiar to those of you who have been following Seat of the Week over the past year, although ongoing political tumult has required a considerable amount of revision. Things remain to be fleshed out for some of the safe Labor seats and a lot of the non-marginal Coalition ones, but at the very least each page comes equipped with candidate lists and graphics showing census results and voting history.

A review of BludgerTrack is in order while I’m here, as we now have a full week of campaign polling after yesterday’s slightly delayed publication of Essential Reserch. It’s clear that the evenly matched polling which followed the return of Kevin Rudd, and which was starting to look alarmingly sticky from a Coalition perspective, has unpeeled over the past fortnight. Close observation suggests this has not entirely been a phenomenon of the election campaign, the Coalition having already pulled ahead over the weekend of an election date announcement which came on the Sunday, after much of the polling had already been conducted. Aggregating the polling over the period has the Coalition already a shade over 51% on two-party preferred, to which they added perhaps a little under 1% over the first week of the campaign. The Greens seem to have made a neglible dividend out of the government’s harder line, their vote being stuck in the 8% to 9% range on BludgerTrack since the beginning of June.

Looking at the progress of state breakdowns over that time, the outstanding change is a 4% swing away from Labor in all-important Queensland, consistent with the notion of a “sugar hit” that got added impetus from a home-state feel-good factor, and is now fading across the board. After showing as many as six gains for Labor in Queensland in the weeks after Rudd’s return, Labor’s yield on the BludgerTrack projection is now at zero, and briefly fell into the negative. So it’s not hard to imagine that Labor strategy meetings last week might have been spent contemplating ways to hold back the Queensland tide, and easy to understand why the name of Peter Beattie might have come up. The most recent data points suggest this may indeed have improved Labor’s position by as much as 3%, but it will be a bit longer before this shows up on BludgerTrack, if indeed it doesn’t prove illusory.

Elsewhere, Labor support looks to have come off to the tune of 1%-2% in New South Wales and South Australia and perhaps slightly less in Victoria. The interesting exception is Western Australia, where there has essentially been no change on a result which has Labor well in the hunt to poach two Liberal seats. The main political story out of the west over this period has been hostile reaction to a post-election state budget highlighted the a bungled cut to an excessively popular solar panel subsidy scheme. This has made the Barnett government the target of public attacks from federal MPs who have been open in their concern about federal electoral impacts. It may perhaps be worth noting that Western Australia is the only state without a daily News Limited tabloid.

A Newspoll result on best party to handle asylum seekers has been the most interesting item of attitudinal polling to emerge over the past week, since a point of comparison is available from a few weeks ago rather than the pre-history of the Gillard era. Whereas the Coalition fell on this measure from from 47% to 33% after the government announced its Papua New Guinea solution, the latest poll has it back up to 42%. Labor has nonetheless maintained its gain from the previous poll, having progressed from 20% to 26% to 27%, with the slack coming from “another party” and “don’t know”. Even so, the re-establishment of a solid double-digit lead to the Coalition is interesting, and a challenge to the notion that the recent poll move away from Labor has entirely been down to a “fading sugar hit”.

UPDATE (Morgan phone poll): Morgan has a small-sample phone poll of 569 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday night which headlines results on personal ratings, but if you burrow into the detail there’s a wildly off-trend result on voting intention with the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 52% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Reflecting what was obviously a bad sample for Labor, the poll has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister narrowing to 46-43 from 52-36 at the last such poll a month ago. Rudd is down five on approval to 40% and up nine on disapproval to 49%, while Abbott is up four to 42% and down six to 48%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,674 thoughts on “Election guide and BludgerTrack review”

  1. [ Of course I’m back for the campaign. We’re are in for the ride of our lives, because Tony Abbot believes in guided democracy. ]

    Technically, I think it’s Pell who believes in guided democracy … and Abbott believes in Pell.

  2. [There’s some evidence that the people are now more volatile in their choices.]
    It certainly seems that way to me, perhaps amplified by the hung parliament, and the way the media has elevated the opposition to equivalent status with the govt.

  3. @Centre 2488

    No, no more poling released. I think this place has gone nuts quite frankly. Jumping at shadows over a couple of the usual suspects claiming Nielsen has the Coalition primary with a 5 in front of it, when I suspect they would still have been in the field.

  4. ‘I wouldn’t even dare say with confidence who will be leading the two parties at the next election.’

    Let me help.
    Tony Abbott.
    Peter Beattie.

    Oh, and Abbott will win a second term.

  5. Rosemour or Less
    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 10:22 pm | PERMALINK
    I sense a distinct shift here in PBland tonight.
    I think most of know the wheels have fallen off and nothing good can come from this campaign for the ALP.
    this blog is full of liberal trolls who tire serious contributors. there is no shift roseeemooor, only distinct disinterest the liberal propaganda.

    labor will win and well

  6. I will PISS myself laughing if the next polls come in 50-50. 🙂

    And one thing Im 100% unconcerned about is a long tenure under Abbott. He has “accidental PM” tattooed on his mug, shelflife 3 yr max.

    Well all know he doesnt have what it takes for political longevity – maybe no one does anymore, in this throwaway era of politics. But certainly not Abbott – too psychologically immature to win over women, for example. And a recession coming too.

    No, he will be a one termer. Nothing surer.

    Thats IF he actually gets one. Still 51-49 – and thats close. I just read em as I see em. :p

    Gimme a reason to change my mind, and I will.

  7. matt31

    I just logged in 10 mins ago.

    Fair dinkum, you’d think it was 7.00pm on election night.

    Rudd has won the last 2 or 3 days, and their ads are very good.

    Let’s just wait and see what Nielsen on Sunday night produces?

  8. [I will PISS myself laughing if the next polls come in 50-50.]

    So will everyone else.

    [Well all know he doesnt have what it takes for political longevity ]

    This is an extraordinary statement given a) he has been in parliament for 20 years, over half that time in government, b) he won the Liberal leadership when everyone else was laughing at his candidacy, and c) he is STILL LOTO and looks almost certain to be Australia’s next Prime Minister.

  9. [Meanwhile in QLD, move along now, nothing to see..]

    Well other than some guy sticking his dick in a fine red wine, what more is there to see?

    He’s been publicly humiliated by a gilted ex-lover… what do you want the government to do, Hang, Draw and Quarter him?

  10. People act as if car manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing are the only manufacturers that exist. I can assure you that is not the case. Not that anyone cares to listen. (Which is odd, considering most people that work in manufacturing that someone would know, would probably not work in those areas).

  11. [Sean Jisme was playing with the collective PB mind earlier by stating Nielson has a PV of 50% or better for the Coalition.]

    You do know some of us draw political conclusions from outside of this board, don’t you? And you probably also know that we tend not to actually give any credibility to what’s said by party hacks, right?

  12. ReachTel will likely be the next poll release Ch7 news tomorrow.

    Personally I think the Nielsen 50% is just mind games as they aren’t even due to be polling.

  13. Its a true statement Confessions.

    Abbott isnt PM material. He wont last. Backbench brawler at best, thrust into the limelight by circumstance (and Minchin), got lucky with an ALP implosion – will last 10 minutes in sunlight before he deeply embarasses the nation, and either loses, or has to be put down politically.

    Thats IF he wins this one.

    Im happy to be quoted on this in 3 years time.

  14. If Nielsen does have a 50% Coalition primary that would actually be 2% down on the Morgan Coalition primary of Monday and Tuesday night, so actually not quite as bad for the ALP. Clearly though early this week must have been terrible polling nights for the ALP, but remember Abbott’s gay marriage comment was not made until Wednesday and his sexist remark made on Tuesday, so neither would really have filtered through to the Morgan poll or most of the Nielsen poll if they are already releasing result. Maybe the notes issues was bad for the ALP, who knows. Wait until at least Monday for a clearer picture to emerge!

  15. [Well other than some guy sticking his dick in a fine red wine, what more is there to see?]

    *Shudders at the thought that there might actually be more to see*

  16. Centre

    Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    Mexicanbeemer @ 2459

    Just what is it that the government hasn’t delivered exactly?

    Low inflation
    Low official interest rates
    Low unemployment
    Murray- Darling Agreement
    Million houses with solar panels
    Since 2007 economy has grown 13%
    Construction of NBN commenced
    Disability Care
    Better Schools Program
    Gonski (cant recall new name)
    190,000 extra University places
    Dental Reform
    $60 billion invested in infrastructure
    Lower taxes
    Productivity growth
    Increased number of small businesses
    Computers in Schools
    Fair Work Act
    Managed Australia through the GFC.
    Low debt to GDP ratio

  17. [Ok – how about the next set of polls?]

    Yes, how about we wait for those. Thats my point.

    Cheer up: you fight hard, you win graciously,lose with equanimity.

    Whinging wont get you anywhere.

    Nite all.

  18. Simon

    [If Nielsen does have a 50% Coalition primary that would actually be 2% down on the Morgan Coalition primary of Monday and Tuesday night, so actually not quite as bad for the ALP.]

    You’re joking right?

    Tell me you’re joking.

  19. Carey Moore, Bugler

    +1 re both your comments on cars. Cars are an over supplied industry, closing plants world wide. To be competitive, production has to be highly automated, thus creating few jobs in the actual assembly. Do the R&D, leave the assembly to Thailand. Honda do. Better yet, make something else. SA mkes more money exporting wine, employing more people, at higher wages.

  20. [Abbott isnt PM material.]

    Of course he isn’t. But this is not the same as not having political longevity. Even Pyne has political longevity, yet nobody claims he’s PM material! (perish the thought btw)

  21. gloryconsequence – Morgan is generally the most pro ALP pollster, so Nielsen would actually be better for the ALP on what were clearly the ALP’s worst nights of the campaign (and before Abbott’s same sex marriage comments or his sexist comment had filtered through)

  22. [It’s probably pay back for a Gay NSW Minister that was humiliated and had to resign for being Gay.]

    He resigned as minister over the incident, not his seat.

    Anyways I think it is a pretty low act by his ex-lover whom I note was too gutless to go on camera without the blur job, yet was happy to share the happy snaps of him.

  23. Politics is the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn’t happen.
    Winston Churchill

Comments Page 51 of 54
1 50 51 52 54

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *