The Poll Bludger’s federal election guide is now live and accessible from the link on the sidebar. Featured are profiles of all 150 House of Representatives electorates, in one shape or another. Comprehensive profiles are featured for Labor seats up to around 12% in margin and Coalition seats up to around 3%. Much of the content will be familiar to those of you who have been following Seat of the Week over the past year, although ongoing political tumult has required a considerable amount of revision. Things remain to be fleshed out for some of the safe Labor seats and a lot of the non-marginal Coalition ones, but at the very least each page comes equipped with candidate lists and graphics showing census results and voting history.
A review of BludgerTrack is in order while I’m here, as we now have a full week of campaign polling after yesterday’s slightly delayed publication of Essential Reserch. It’s clear that the evenly matched polling which followed the return of Kevin Rudd, and which was starting to look alarmingly sticky from a Coalition perspective, has unpeeled over the past fortnight. Close observation suggests this has not entirely been a phenomenon of the election campaign, the Coalition having already pulled ahead over the weekend of an election date announcement which came on the Sunday, after much of the polling had already been conducted. Aggregating the polling over the period has the Coalition already a shade over 51% on two-party preferred, to which they added perhaps a little under 1% over the first week of the campaign. The Greens seem to have made a neglible dividend out of the government’s harder line, their vote being stuck in the 8% to 9% range on BludgerTrack since the beginning of June.
Looking at the progress of state breakdowns over that time, the outstanding change is a 4% swing away from Labor in all-important Queensland, consistent with the notion of a “sugar hit” that got added impetus from a home-state feel-good factor, and is now fading across the board. After showing as many as six gains for Labor in Queensland in the weeks after Rudd’s return, Labor’s yield on the BludgerTrack projection is now at zero, and briefly fell into the negative. So it’s not hard to imagine that Labor strategy meetings last week might have been spent contemplating ways to hold back the Queensland tide, and easy to understand why the name of Peter Beattie might have come up. The most recent data points suggest this may indeed have improved Labor’s position by as much as 3%, but it will be a bit longer before this shows up on BludgerTrack, if indeed it doesn’t prove illusory.
Elsewhere, Labor support looks to have come off to the tune of 1%-2% in New South Wales and South Australia and perhaps slightly less in Victoria. The interesting exception is Western Australia, where there has essentially been no change on a result which has Labor well in the hunt to poach two Liberal seats. The main political story out of the west over this period has been hostile reaction to a post-election state budget highlighted the a bungled cut to an excessively popular solar panel subsidy scheme. This has made the Barnett government the target of public attacks from federal MPs who have been open in their concern about federal electoral impacts. It may perhaps be worth noting that Western Australia is the only state without a daily News Limited tabloid.
A Newspoll result on best party to handle asylum seekers has been the most interesting item of attitudinal polling to emerge over the past week, since a point of comparison is available from a few weeks ago rather than the pre-history of the Gillard era. Whereas the Coalition fell on this measure from from 47% to 33% after the government announced its Papua New Guinea solution, the latest poll has it back up to 42%. Labor has nonetheless maintained its gain from the previous poll, having progressed from 20% to 26% to 27%, with the slack coming from “another party” and “don’t know”. Even so, the re-establishment of a solid double-digit lead to the Coalition is interesting, and a challenge to the notion that the recent poll move away from Labor has entirely been down to a “fading sugar hit”.
UPDATE (Morgan phone poll): Morgan has a small-sample phone poll of 569 respondents conducted on Monday and Tuesday night which headlines results on personal ratings, but if you burrow into the detail there’s a wildly off-trend result on voting intention with the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 52% for the Coalition, 31% for Labor and 9% for the Greens. Reflecting what was obviously a bad sample for Labor, the poll has Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister narrowing to 46-43 from 52-36 at the last such poll a month ago. Rudd is down five on approval to 40% and up nine on disapproval to 49%, while Abbott is up four to 42% and down six to 48%.
The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter.
Winston Churchill
And you only need to read Sean’s posts to understand what Churchill menat
@Simon
Correct me if I am wrong, but Morgan has been nowhere near as biased towards Labor since their polls went multi mode. Also, this was not even multi mode, it was a small sample phone poll, 569 sample size.
[If the upcoming Nielsen has a Coalition primary at 50%, there’s very little solace one could draw from that.]
There’s no solace. And if anyone tries to find any they should be given a 6 month banning.
Lynchpin – NO, Morgan had a Coalition 52% PV on Monday and Tuesday and 57% on 2PP, so Nielsen would be down on that. It seems earlier polls this week for some reason (notes?) were terrible for the ALP, but as I said the gay marriage gaffe was only made yesterday and the sexist gaffe on Tuesday so neither would have filtered through yet. The trend will not be clear until Monday when all the week’s vents will have filtered through.
The Coalition 46%
Labor 38%
The Greens 7%
Other 9%
2PP 52/48
Get a grip everyone!
Centre’s estimates 😛
if we kill local car making we will then get the same thing we do with IT products – a special high price for Australia because we have no choice
Matt31 – They have moved them more towards the average, but they still lean slightly ALP
Centre
As I said earlier. Its too close to call. Certainly not depression stakes for Labor supporters
[The trend will not be clear until Monday when all the week’s vents will have filtered through.]
Delusional.
People keep saying “Oh wait til next week’s polling, they will be the real ones, Abbott’s comments about xxxx haven’t filtered through!”
Absolutely irrational and moronic.
It will be Thursday the 5th, we’ll be trailing 53-47, and people here will be saying WAIT FOR SATURDAY, EVERY POLL IS WRONG, IT WILL ALL FILTER THROUGH!
[There’s no solace. And if anyone tries to find any they should be given a 6 month banning.]
There’s always solace, for example:
58-42 to the Coalition? *shrugs* at least it’s not 59-41, amirite?
Simon
[This telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%. The primary vote is L-NP 52%, ALP 31%, Greens 9% and Independent/Others 8%. Of those surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.]
You are quite right. Seems absurd to me that a 52% PV only gives a 2PP of 57%.
@carey and glory
The key word is if. This was all started by Miranda so many names I can’t be bothered listing them. I highly doubt the poll would have even been complete when this was posted. Some massive jumping at shadows happening around here tonight. Nothing has happened this week to move things so violently.
Where’s Adam Carr? Burning and shredding?
[Get a grip everyone!]
Yeah, no. You don’t just pull some arbitrary numbers out of your arse and then use it as a basis to tell others to “get a grip”
Motto for Abbott’s media support
============================================
A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.
Winston Churchill
===========================================================
And by then the papers are out, the punters have read them and our lie becomes the “new” truth
Guytaur
Labor are behind, but there is a long way to go.
Who could ever forget Howards 58/42 Newspoll before he got Downer to sound out his party support 😆
That was at the start or a week before of the campaign from memory?
I do not think the pessimism has anything to do with imaginary floated numbers.
Exhibit A) Rosemour, *hug*
Exhibit B) people who preferred Gillard
Exhibit C) people who think Rudd is a phony and that the public are catching on
Exhibit D) people who don’t like (some of) his policies
Exhibit E) people who don’t like his political strategy
Exhibit F) tories on holiday and greens 😛
There may be overlap between some groups.
Lynchpin@2484
A pep talk from me?
I would advise all ALP supporters to volunteer to help with your local campaign or the campaign in the nearest marginal.
I live in Bruce but am working on the Latrobe campaign, making phone calls on behalf of Laura Smyth. The reaction has been encouraging.
It is amusing to read assurances here saying Gillard and supporters won’t leak. As Mark Kenny put it in the SMH, they have already ‘viciously traduced Rudd’ and it is on the public record. Nothing Rudd and supporters are alleged to have done compares with this blatant and treacherous attempt to destroy Rudd. Our opponents will no doubt use it with glee.
Above all else I say don’t give up and give of your best to help the campaign.
Unfortunately William will not let me give full vent to my feelings of disgust about some here who have masqueraded as Labor supporters but have revealed their true colours. 😡 I have greater respect for ‘honest’ Libs who never hid their loyalties.
We are not done yet and I still hope we can defeat the forces of darkness.
Courage and hard work comrades!
My Nielsen guess is:
51% Coalition
31% Labor
9% Greens
9% Other
Gloryconsequence – If in the last week the Coalition was ahead 53-47 even I would be prepared to admit Abbott will win, but one or two such polls before barely even the half-way mark of the campaign does not an election result make!
[Where’s Adam Carr?]
Thailand.
Carey M
Get a grip 😉
My figures are adjusted according to the way I see fit. I use polls as a guide then make my own determination.
It’s a combination of the value I attribute to a poll, the trend and when they are released.
I’ll state, adamantly, for the record:
1. I take the Morgan Phone poll with a grain of salt, as I always do with an opinion poll that is wildly different than the rest. Unless other polls deliver similar results, I assume it is a rogue – especially considering the modest sample size.
2. I don’t actually believe the Coalition primary of a pending Nielsen is 50%, at least not based on what has been said by whichever Coalition hack it was. Unless it’s from William, James J, GhostWhoVotes, or is a link to a credible tweet or article, I take all poll rumours with a grain of salt.
3. I am not nervous, upset, pessimistic, or any other despondent emotion. I am just calling things as I see them. What’s the point in suppressing one’s insight, just to be a cheerleader? It’s pointless. If people are sensitive to pessimistic projections for their party, then maybe a political discussion forum is not for them.
4. I have been wrong before and I can be wrong again. And I’ll be the first to admit my era and take the mockery if I am completely wrong.
Lynchpin – Indeed, but there we go!
Bemused, yes, I am doing what I can – street stalls and some phoning.
I think it is seat by seat. Smart targeting of the marginal. In this seat we need to pull back 900 votes from the last election.
Uhlman analysed the marginals tonight and came up with ALP having only 63 seats. Not sure what polling he was using though.
Lynchpin
Posted Thursday, August 15, 2013 at 11:04 pm | Permalink
Simon
This telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%. The primary vote is L-NP 52%, ALP 31%, Greens 9% and Independent/Others 8%. Of those surveyed 2.5% did not name a party.
You are quite right. Seems absurd to me that a 52% PV only gives a 2PP of 57%.
—————————————————
this was a telephone poll of 549 people.
Bemused,
[I live in Bruce but am working on the Latrobe campaign, making phone calls on behalf of Laura Smyth. The reaction has been encouraging.]
Many questions about the Maccas in Tecoma? Had to ask (I have friends who work at the Lilydale McDonalds. Apparently people call them up and abuse them over the matter).
Centre
Yes I remember that week of APEC. Made memorable around the world by the Chaser boys.
The start of Karma for Howard.
[I’ll be the first to admit my era]
*error.
Lack of sleep is catching up.
Carey, I agree with you, with one difference. I am prone to see it somewhat emotionally. It really matters to me that the ALP wins. I can’t help that.
The big problem for Labor is not the Morgan phone poll, believe me, it’s the fact that the 52/48 looks sold 😐
Ok, if we are in the business of making predictions for the next poll, which I expect will indeed be Nielsen tomorrow night:
Coalition 45
ALP 38
Greens 10
Others 7
House of Representatives
2013 ALP L-NP
August 9-11, 2013 (Multi-mode) 50.0 50.0
August 2-4, 2013 (Multi-mode) 50.0 50.0
July 26-28, 2013 (Multi-mode) 52.0 48.0
52/48 appears solid I should have said at 2581
In other words, the pessimism is all coming from people already predisposed to it.
That doesn’t mean they’re wrong :P.
[Courage and hard work comrades!]
Word, Bemused. Thats the spirit. Its gone a bit pissweak around here lately.
If you want my current guess on the next round of polls: a further slump in Abbott’s already low low approval among women keeps things interesting.
And even if it doesnt: get out there and campaign anyway!
[2579
Carey Moore
I’ll be the first to admit my era]
I’m dimly conscious that mine is best described as bygone.
Lynchpin@2561
It is apparently respondent-allocated and even if you assume no difference with the 2010 preference distributions then the small sample size of Greens and Others could very easily give you a 5-12 split compared with the expected 6.6-10.4. Add the possibility of respondents allocating differently and there is nothing left to explain.
For a last-election preference I get a median value of 58.5:41.5 (using Morgan’s rounding to half a point, actually 41.4) and a highest possible value for Labor of 42.1.
DN
[Exhibit C) people who think Rudd is a phony and that the public are catching on]
You’ve just outed 52-53% of the population, and rising.
Centre – Galaxy and Essential Research have it 51-49, winnable for an incumbent government, and I cannot see any events since which will have altered it so dramtically overall. Immediate post-debate may have given Abbott a boost, hence the Coalition poll rise, but then the gaffes may have cut that
Extensive marginal seat polling in The Oz tomorrow
Centre
Did you read the article that i linked.
Some parts of Australia are experiencing very high levels of unemployment.
I agree with Zoidlord, the Government does need to focus on reducing the cost of education.
Gloryc and Simon B
Maybe we might hear from Ghost?
[if we kill local car making we will then get the same thing we do with IT products – a special high price for Australia because we have no choice]
If that were true it would be a good reason to keep the car industry, but it is not true. The car industry is much more competitive and less of a monopoly than IT.
NZ found out years ago that the opposite is the case. Foreign car makers sell cars here at very high prices, despite low tariffs, because they know the government’s support of local car makers creates an effective floor price. Also car importing rules create monopolies. This is true at the top and bottom end. A Prius coats far less in the USA than here, so that Toyota can sell the Camry Hybrid here for a similar price to the Prius. A Porsche Boxter costs about $60k AUS in UK. The same car here coats $100k.
Apologists for bad policy always conflate the entire car industry with manufacturing. Most of the jobs are in sales, maintenance and repair, which will not be lost.
A clever phony v. a genuine douche
Too close to call punters!
It seems to me that Morgan result really raped the subconscious of some otherwise worthy Labor supporters here. If Newspoll shows 57/43 then you have my blessing to freak out or get all negative or depressed but until that time, soldier on.
52/48ish is a walk in the fucking park compared to what it was. Not impossible for it to be improved upon either. Cheer up and get volunteering.
Hell, even if Abbott wins the vast majority of us will live to see the day he gets turfed out along with his pathetic front bench. That’s worth sticking around for in my opinion.
[52/48ish is a walk in the fucking park compared to what it was. Not impossible for it to be improved upon either. Cheer up and get volunteering.
Hell, even if Abbott wins the vast majority of us will live to see the day he gets turfed out along with his pathetic front bench. That’s worth sticking around for in my opinion.]
Seconded!
[It seems to me that Morgan result really raped the subconscious of some otherwise worthy Labor supporters here.]
Tiny request: could you perhaps choose another verb in future?
Regarding the polls, there is no point being defeatist, as Bligh proved in the Qld election. That will make it worse. That being said, it looks difficult. Labor needs a new goal, not just a new policy. Genuine reforms, a la Hawke/Keating II, including all the Henry review, would be great. But that will take courage.
Night all.
Goodnight All