Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slightly better news for Labor from Essential Research, which records essentially no change on last week and has Kevin Rudd maintaining a solid lead as preferred prime minister.

Essential Research’s weekly rolling average bucks the trend just slightly in having Labor up a point on the primary vote to 39%, although the point comes at the expense of the Greens who are down one to 8%, with the Coalition steady on 43%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 51-49. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings have also failed to improve, contrary to other recent polling, his approval down two to 37% and disapproval steady at 51%. Kevin Rudd’s ratings tell a more familiar story however, his approval down five to 45% and disapproval up eight to 43%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is down only slightly, from 50-35 to 47-35.

As it occasionally does, Essential poses a question more concerned with measuring knowledge in opinion: in this case, 25% think Australia’s national debt is higher compared to other developed countries while 46% say it’s lower, with Coalition voters about evenly divided. Forty-eight per cent rate reducing debt more important than maintaining spending on services and projects against 40% who think the opposite. Forty-five per cent would prefer the government cut spending to reduce debt against only 6% who would prefer taxes be raised, with 21% opting for both and 18% for neither. Foreign aid, the arts, subsidies for business and private schools top the list of preferred targets for cuts, with roads, public schools, pensions and health at the bottom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

855 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. zoidlord@851


    Is it because it was commissioned for Green’s Party that it is ‘dodgy’?

    What is the current PV for Bandts?

    Not just the commissioning, but the wording of questions has not been released publicly. Plus there were reports of a poll being conducted without party names listed (only candidates) at the same time, that was attributed to Galaxy.

    I have no idea what Bandt’s current PV is because there have only been internal polls, nothing public. The Labor one said he was on 33.9 and the Green one 48. The former seems more consistent with the general decline in the Green vote but it’s always possible Bandt is punching above that.

  2. OMG just come home about to go out again is it safe to venture onto PB? Looks like all the LNP drones have finally gone to sleep although havn’t see River yet 😀 mayby the Workchoice serf rates wern’t enough to keep him? at Menzies House?

    BTW The stitching on my bag has just come apart after a lot of good service, had anyone heard of Carlton or Tripp bags seems I can get good deals on both of them, but can’t find comparisons like I can in Oz over here so any info wold be appreciated for when I wake up in the morning

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