Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll’s second poll for the campaign shows no change on the two-party preferred, but a fair bit going on in the primary vote. Morgan’s weekly multi-mode poll has also made an early appearance, and they also offer an SMS poll on responses to the debate.

GhostWhoVotes tweets that Newspoll’s second weekly (I presume) poll for the campaign has the Coalition lead at 52-48, unchanged on last week. However, Labor is down two (to 35%) and the Coalition up two (to 46%) on the primary vote, with a two point increase for the Greens to 11% allowing the two-party vote to remain stable, presumably with help from rounding. Tony Abbott’s numbers continue to improve, his personal ratings now almost equal with Kevin Rudd’s. He is up four points on approval to 38% and down four on disapproval to 52%, while Kevin Rudd is up one apiece to 39% and 48%. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 47-33 to 46-37.

UPDATE: And now the weekly Morgan multi-mode poll, which normally comes out on Monday afternoon, has made its appearance, and it’s well in line with all the other polling: Labor down 1.5% to 36.5%, and both the Coalition and the Greens up a point to 44% and 10.5%. That pans out to a 51.5-48.5 lead to the Coalition on two-party preferred using 2010 election preferences, but a stronger 50-50 result for Labor on respondent-allocated preferences. State breakdowns are featured, and they interestingly show a five-point shift to Labor on two-party preferred in Queensland.

Morgan also got 1200 responses to an SMS poll conducted this evening on reaction to the debate, which is probably the most reliable data we have on this. It shows an effective dead heat with Kevin Rudd rated the winner by 24%, Tony Abbott favoured by 23%, 5% calling it a draw, and 48% granted that they hadn’t watched (non-watchers presumably also having tended to be non-respondents).

BludgerTrack has been updated with the Newspoll result but not the Morgan. I’ll follow up on that tomorrow after Essential Research comes out (UPDATE: Essential Research will not be out until tomorrow, so I’ve updated BludgerTrack without it).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,129 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  3. [Essential found the first week of the federal election campaign has not changed people’s minds on who they’ll vote for. Primary voting intention remains essentially unchanged on 43% Coalition, 39% Labor and 8% Greens, very similar to the week before. This gives an all-important two-party-preferred result of 51% to the Coalition and 49% to Labor; so Labor is not out of the race.

    But the gloss is wearing off Kevin Rudd, making Labor’s comeback challenge harder. Approval of Rudd has slipped from 50% to 45% in the last month, while disapproval has lifted from 35% to 43% (those numbers do not fully reflect the reaction to Sunday night’s leaders’ debate, as many of those polled were asked the question before the debate). This gives Rudd a wafer-thin net approval rating of +2% — which for Australian politics in recent years is still quite good, and significantly better than former prime minister Julia Gillard’s approval rating back in early June.]

  4. Guytaur

    Not surprised, i think Tone won the debate but the reason isn’t a good one for Tone.

    Basically Tone performed as expected, all slogans, no real answers and pretty much delivered a standard Tone performance.

    Kevin unfortunately didn’t deliver as good a performance as i might have expected.

    Basically Tone won by default.

  7. The person who sent me the Essential figure typed a number in wrong LOL

    Funny!

    Apparently Essential had gremlins yesterday which is why they didn’t produce their results until today. The 48% figure must have been the gremlins result LOL

  11. mex

    And we all have to remember that we are only very early into week two.

    Three word slogans will not be enough for Abbott.

    I recommend that they put Christopher Pyne on tele more often and give him more time to make an absolute idiot of himself as he did on QandA last night.

  12. My theory is the budget numbers hit Rudd personally on economic management which has registered a small decline in the ALP’s vote nationally. Should filter out next week as the issue becomes the Coalition’s costings

  13. Gary they are both correct on the GST. Abbott is correct that under existing legislation the states have to agree to any change to the GST. Rudd is correct that it is within the federal governments power to change the existing legislation without the approval of the states.

    In the abence of the Coalition winning a Senate majority no changes to existing GST legislation is likely to be passed.

  16. MB don’t know yet. That article is from Crikey and Essential haven’t posted this week’s report yet. Just trying to help.

  17. davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, August 13, 2013 at 1:04 pm | PERMALINK
    MB don’t know yet. That article is from Crikey and Essential haven’t posted this week’s report yet. Just trying to help

    =======

    Thanks , you do a good job

  19. [Rudd is correct that it is within the federal governments power to change the existing legislation without the approval of the states.]

    Federal Parliament, not government.

  21. [In the abence of the Coalition winning a Senate majority no changes to existing GST legislation is likely to be passed.]
    I agree David. You and I know that as interested people but the average person wouldn’t think of that and the coalition can’t say that because they then admit they’re thinking about it.

  22. I watched Q&A last night for the first time in many months. Christopher Pyne was an all round ass, Penny Wong didn’t say anything and looked as though she wanted to fade away when Janet Albrechtsen called her the $106 billion woman BUT the revalation was Adam Bandt – cool, assured, stating his case, and coming out with a few good one liners. Such a contrast from the Greens usual roll out of Milne and Hanson-Young who huff and puff and generally harp and get indignant. Should Bandt hold on to Melbourne, leadership might pass to the lower house sooner rather than later.

  23. While I dread the ever rising spectre of an Abbott govt, what exactly is the problem with a reasonable and measured of an increase to the GST?

    Such an increase could be implemented in a manner to offset its regressive aspects.

    Can’t really see it as a significant vote changer.

  31. Wondering what betting looked like for the USA2012 Election?

    http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/10-2012/2012-us-election-betting.aspx

    Scroll down the page to Summer of Republican Discontent? and the graph under it; which tracks both parties’odds against the Opinion Polls.

    Check particularly the sudden shift around 30 September, with a month & a week to go before Election Day.

    Below the graph is an extensive examination of events & reactions (inc in the betting market) to those events.

    Interesting!

  32. Gary I can’t see any government changing the GST unless they find two very scarce abilities, courage and the ability to take the people with them to implement difficult and unpopular change. The last PM who had the required qualities was perhaps Bob Hawke and perhaps Howard to a lesser extent.

    Neither Rudd or Abbott will do it.

  38. The local bomb squad has just had a siren event two towers over. No big bang.

    The authorities have been saying that the BIFF bomb threat (young BIFF men heading to Manila to do some demo bombing) was hoaxacious and that scaredy-cats should not be putting the frighterners into everyone.

    Quien sabe?

  39. Essential is like a big aircraft carrier. It takes a long time to react to a change in course but it eventually gets there.

  40. [Neither Rudd or Abbott will do it.]

    Rudd won’t , Abbott might. There might also be a concerted push from the states to increase their revenue streams through an increase. The Labor states – SA and Tasmania – are probably more in need of the revenue than anyone else.

  41. [Gary I can’t see any government changing the GST unless they find two very scarce abilities, courage and the ability to take the people with them to implement difficult and unpopular change. The last PM who had the required qualities was perhaps Bob Hawke and perhaps Howard to a lesser extent.

    Neither Rudd or Abbott will do it.]
    Again David I agree but as a scare campaign it is powerful. The one question Rudd asks is, “If they are not looking at changing the GST why have it in the review?” A very good question and one that the Libs have yet to counter.

  42. So Essential has the ALP PV up by 1% to 39%.
    Should just take 1 more percent and Labor will be in a winning position.

    It will be nice to see all the whingers and Kev haters STFU.

  43. Heard an interview with Shane Paulger, KAP number 2 Senate candidate in Qld, all but confirmed the Mad Katters will preference the ALP.

    Reasons were workplace relations and Howard deregulating the Dairy Industry and the inane comments by the LNP agriculture minister.

  46. Gary I agree. The Coalition have mishandled the GST issue. They only need to say that the GST should be included in any comprehensive review of taxation and then all the results made available for full community consideration. Any changes then to be taken to an election to allow the people to decide.

  49. Diogenes@1981

    bbp

    Agree about Wong getting slaughtered on the $106B line. It’s an amazing figure to be out by.

    That is a cumulative figure for discrepancies in Treasury estimates GIVEN TO THE GOVT.

    They were not, as Janet would have it ‘Government estimates’.

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