ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,822 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49”

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  1. [I was wondering when Rudd will bring up SSM.]

    I must confess I find it rather annoying that Labor has been on Twitter, pushing the “Vote Labor, get marriage equality!” line, considering there are Labor MPs who will vote against it…

  2. “@tim_chr: And 72-28 to Rudd (ABC). RT @genericleftist: 61-39 to Rudd (Ten), 59-41 to Rudd (Nine), 68-32 to Abbott (Seven) #debate #ausvotes”

  4. just received this email hoe it works:

    Kevin Rudd labor@australianlaborparty.emailnb.com via email.nationbuilder.com
    7:55 PM (11 minutes ago)

    to Judith

    Judith —

    If I am re-elected Prime Minister, I will support marriage equality legislation in the first 100 days of Parliament.

    At this evening’s debate, I made that commitment to the Australian people.

    If you think it’s time for marriage equality, I’d like you to stand with me and show the country that we think it’s time:

    It’s Time for Marriage Equality

    I’ve been thinking about the meaning of marriage for a long time – and I won’t hide the fact that this has been a journey for me. It is a difficult discussion, and I won’t force this on anyone. It will be a free vote for members of the Labor Party.

    But here is what I know: we are at our best when we give all Australians the same dignity, the same opportunity for happiness.

    I believe that no matter who we love, we all should be able to make that same promise I was able to make to Therese over 30 years ago. That all of us should be allowed to marry the one we love.

    I am the first Prime Minister of this country going into an election promising to support marriage equality. So if you support equal marriage, I will need your support.

    This is an issue that is very personal to people. What moves us to take a stand on this issue can move others too. If you think it’s time for marriage equality, share your story telling the country why.

    http://www.itstimeformarriageequality.org/

    It’s time.

    Kevin

    Donate Twitter Facebook

  7. triton@1440

    I have finished another bottle of shiraz as well. My evening posts never count, okay?

    I agree, nothing beats a good shiraz. But lately I’ve been imbibing merlot, and it is a good thing also. Cheaper bottles of merlot beat many expensive bottles of shiraz.

  8. Good result for KRudd. A clear win obviously.
    Abbott looked frankly laughable with his tired old stop the boats nonsense. The audience were laughing at him at various stages.

  9. Laocoon Hate to say but my first election was 1961. That’s a long time ago. I didn’t vote for Menzies altho wasn’t impressed with Calwell. I was being rebellious at the time against a mostly blueblood family.

  12. Aged care- Abbott babbled about paperwork while Rudd had a nice piece about looking after our aged parents. That was a big winner for Rudd.

    Overall, it is clear that Tony Abbott is really just a puppet. He talks in slogans, he has no substance, he won’t give specifics on costings and he can’t talk without coaching. The big questions are, who is the coach and who is the puppeteer?

  16. liyana

    [Aged care- Abbott babbled about paperwork while Rudd had a nice piece about looking after our aged parents. That was a big winner for Rudd.]

    Totally agree!

  19. Rudd needs to build on this clear win and get out there with positive news and positive imagery.
    Abott reinforced his dismal negativity tonight and Rudd needs to reinforce this.

  20. A Robb doing what he does best – “waffling”, then accused KRudd of waffling whilst claiming TAbbott was brilliant.
    Pure bullshit Robb!

  26. [Rudd needs to build on this clear win and get out there with positive news and positive imagery.
    Abott reinforced his dismal negativity tonight and Rudd needs to reinforce this.]

    agree, steal all the oxygen at every opportunity.
    Get media tart beattie to assist.

  29. Henry

    Gay Marriage is a bit vote shifter particularly with younger voters along with Climate Change and Rudd wins with both.

  30. Yo, Bludgeroonies

    Saw part of the debate on the Australian Channel which goes to show that it is difficult to escape RuddAbbott. Youse have been warned.

    We are under the influence of a typhoon atm… If you want to have a look: typhoon2000.com and click on the sat imagery. It is doing full force tropical rain here in Manila atm – it is a white-out, thunder is shaking the building and, from 34 floors up it looks as if the lightning is all around us. The typhoon track predictions all have the typhoon tracking between around 200-300km to the north of Manila which should mean plenty more rain and wind speeds at well less than 100kph. Folk further north are going to cop it, though.

    We drove back from Subic this morning and the only sign of preparations were workers furling billboard advertising cladding.

    One of the highlights of Subic was a guided tour of one of the two Hamilton Class cutters recently transferred from the US to the Philippines. We just sort of drove up, just sort of asked if we could walk through the port gate, asked politely whether they were doing guided tours and lo…

    We found a bit of an unused back track in the Ilalin Forest – completely deserted with the rainforest canopy long since joined overhead. It went past a promontory which had the remains of a WW2 building still shattered by schapnel. Found a bomb shard nearby. Completely peaceful looking out over the West Philippines Sea/South China Sea… The Philippines Govt and the US Govt are in amicable discussions about stationing US forces in The Philippines again. It was not all that long ago that The Philippines resumed Subic and Clark bases.

    Yep, just saw a forked lightning and parts of it were definitely below us, but there is a lull in the rain and we can now see the pale grey shape of the next tower over.

  34. Tony needs to watch that five o’clock shadow. Except with him it’s often a 9 in the morning shadow. It’s what did Nixon in back in 1960. Those who saw the Nixon/Kennedy debate on TV were turned off by Nixon’s stubble.

    Abbott’s excessive eye-blinking tonight was also a Nixonesque thing. Was Abbott tired after his fun run? was he lying? Stressed because he couldn’t run away? Had to manage without an earwig? Who knows?
    http://www.doctorzebra.com/prez/g37.htm

  37. I was visiting family so missed the debate (apart from some snippets on the radio on the way home). It seems not to have set the world on fire and each side seems to believe their guy won, although it was close.

    Re Shows On @432 on debate thread I think Abbott will refuse further debates as they are too big a risk for him.

    I agree, given Abbott’s tendency to avoid close questioning. He won’t actually refuse but will insist on conditions (essentially Abbott-friendly format, management and audience) that would be unacceptable, and blame Rudd for not accepting.

  38. I support marriage equality.

    But there were two things that would indicate desperate trouble for Rudd – when he started banging on about GST, and when he promised a vote on marriage equality.

  42. @GC/1488

    SSM he supported for a while.

    If he done it over night or within the last month – then perhaps might be difference.

    @Mod Lib/1489

    I think Sean said something About Howard loosing debates and winning the election?

  44. I thought there was a spot on the glove before the ball arrived. Hussein didn’t mention that. It got a little brighter after the ball passed, but that was not enough to give it out IMO. Why would the exact spot the ball supposedly hit be there before the ball arrived? No discussion of that by the Pom commentators.

  46. i see the debate reinforcing people’s existing leanings. I don’t think either did enough to change votes from those people. For people who have not made up their minds, I think Rudd gave them information and a discussion about the future that could engage them, especially with the NBN.

    The GST point was just enough to gain attention, and I notice Abbott did not rule out extending the GST to fresh food!

    At least Rudd was able to discuss his points directly to the people, maybe enough to get them interested.

    Of course, neither Abbott nor Rudd was a patch on Julia Gillard, who can do a presser for an hour without referring to notes. Rudd was looking at his notes too much, I don’t know but maybe he always did and I am just used to JG keeping everything in her head.

  48. [Gawd now we have NoteGate because Rudd allegedly used notes which is not Kosher.]

    I’d let it go. The night was a positive for Abbott. No use in possibly conceding it by looking like you’re crying foul.

  49. Abbott does not need notes because he had nothing to say that he hasn’t said a thousand times before.

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