A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.
UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.
http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2400-a-true-story-about-a-man-named-tony
Here’s a true story. It’s about a man called Tony.
Tony is a hard working Aussie, doing his best to provide for his family. He has a good job, but such is the nature of his work that his income is subject to unpredictable, sharp and sudden changes.
Tony’s much loved and wonderful children go to a private school and wow, those fees that he choses to pay are high. He used to have a moderate mortgage, especially given he was doing well with an income well over $200,000 per annum.
Then things on the income side turned sour.
Tony had a change in work status that resulted in his annual income dropping by around $90,000 – a big loss in anyone’s language.
How did Tony respond to this 40 per cent drop in income?
Well, rather than selling the house and moving into smaller, more affordable premises, or taking his children out of the private school system and saving tens of thousands of after tax dollars, Tony called up his friendly mortgage provider and refinanced his mortgage.
In other words, Tony took on a huge chunk of extra debt so that he could maintain his family’s lifestyle. No belt tightening, no attempt to live within his means, just more debt.
Tony was reported as saying when asked about the cut in his income and his craving for more debt, we are “soldiering on the best we can… what’s it called? Mortgage stress!” he quipped when referring to the fact that his level of debt was now many multiples of his income.
Tony also said that, “it’s true you do experience a substantial pay cut and, yes, if you are a normal family without accumulated assets, without additional sources of income, it does make a big difference”.
It sure does, Tone.
Tony is an interesting chap because he has some strong views on how the government should run its finances. He reckons the current government is addicted to debt and that he’ll cut the level of debt if ever his dream of becoming Prime Minister comes true.
When speaking of government debt, which would be the equivalent of a mortgage of $20,000 for someone earning $200,000 a year (10 per cent), Tony reckons that “we all know what it’s like when you’ve got a household budget to manage. Sometimes you’ve got to tighten your belt. Just as households have to tighten their belts when times are tough, I think that when the Commonwealth faces unforeseen expenses that’s when it should tighten its own belt.”
Hang on Tony…. Didn’t you keep on spending and consuming when you had a change in household financial circumstances? And didn’t you cover this spending of yours by boosting your debt?
Tony also said, “we are determined to make sure government exercises the same kind of restraint over its spending which businesses and households have long understood.”
Huh? Restraint? Tony, you personally borrowed like a drunken sailor!
I’m confused.
Or is there some inconsistency with Tony – what I say and what I do are entirely different things. Tony did after all say a few years back “I know politicians are gonna be judged on everything they say, but sometimes, in the heat of discussion, you go a little bit further than you would if it was an absolutely calm”.
Ah…now I see. Tony the politician says and does different things to Tony the regular bloke.
But back to now.
Always an optimist, Tony hoped that one day his income would again rise and while he waited for that day, he did in fact soldier on with his massive mortgage, massive spending and without there being a hint of belt tightening.
As luck would have it, he unexpectedly saved $10,000 a year on his interest costs by the fact that mortgage interest rates dropped a thumping 3 per cent.
I’m sure he’ll send a thank you note to whom ever helped get interest rates down so much.
And as luck would have it, Tony’s had a pay rise and he’s now on around $350,000 year. Phew.
It’s a good job Tony didn’t panic and sell his house and drag his kids out of school. Rather, he took on a bit of debt that he could easily afford as it turns out and it got him through the tough times.
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OMG Rosie
Please tale care of your poor old hands I can see RSI coming with all the typing you are doing bagging ALP Went to bed last night you were at it woke up this morning and you are still going 😀
It’s a good job Tony didn’t panic and sell his house and drag his kids out of school. Rather, he took on a bit of debt that he could easily afford as it turns out and it got him through the tough times.
Phew! In 2010 he almost sold his arse!
http://www.politifact.com.au/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/jun/09/tony-abbott/tony-abbott-says-gst-cannot-be-changed-without-all/
Nothing can ever happen in terms of the GST without the agreement of all the states and territories.
on Thursday, May 23, 2013 in Joint press conference, Tasmania
In these days of collapsing federal government revenue, talk of reviewing the tax system and pressure on government spending, it is comforting to hear assurances the GST rate of 10 per won’t be increased.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard has ruled out an increase and a broadening of the GST base to include more goods.
Opposition leader Tony Abbott has plans for a tax white paper, a review, but no plans to increase the GST.
He went further: “I point out that nothing can ever happen in terms of the GST without the agreement of all the states and territories.”
This adds a little more comfort to know our state leaders need to agree before a future government decides that the easiest way to fill a hole in revenue is to push up the GST.
Judging from news reports, the states rarely all agree on anything let alone giving the nod to increasing a tax, a move not usually viewed with love by voters.
But how firm is that protection? Will a future government really need all the states to agree before tinkering with the GST rate?
The opposition leader’s office pointed to legislation and a written agreement between the Commonwealth, and the states and territories.
Abbott clear winner in this debate…poor showing from Rudd.
Ben Blue@1405
You could at least wait until the debate is actually over before posting your propaganda!
Abbott spend much more time being negative.
This little black duck,
as requested the other night
did Rudd break the debate rules by taking in notes for his opening and closing addresses?
Bugger, I have just wasted an hour of my life.
Why was Kevin Rudd debating George Bush, I thought he was supposed to be debating Abbott.
was that you at the debate wearing your Kevin 07 tshirt rummell?
Newspoll tonight I hear?
paaptsef
Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 7:45 pm | PERMALINK
was that you at the debate wearing your Kevin 07 tshirt rummell?
nope, im the one with the kev 07 car flag, driving around eden monaro
Todd @_AdamTodd 16m
The Ten News/Twitter poll result is in. Kevin Rudd wins debate 61% to 39% #tennews #ausvotes #leadersdebate pic.twitter.com/Rj7KDl6j87
Retweeted by margo kingston
CONGRATULATION KEVIN WE LOVE U
======================================================
THE PERSON WHO WINS THE DEBATE WINS THE ELECTION
ABBOTT hopeless with finances
can disgrace full performance
I think he should just run marathons and surf for the rest of his life
watched the worm
rudd on the peaks and tablelands
abbott downhill skiing almost all the way especially when he sloganised
NEWPOLL WILL IT
come to your dressed in uniform
Ben Blue
Take off your LNP blue glasses. The fidgets got your man Abbott quite early. The body language showed him shaking his head the wrong way as he lied!
You know he’s hopeless Ben Blue.
Oh dear, poroti!
Sympathies!!!
NEWPOLL WILL IT
come to your dressed in uniform
=======================================
all jokes aside Newspoll would of been done
before the debate
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/a-field-guide-to-australian-opinion.html
Field Guide to Australian Opinion Pollsters
This is just a roundup of a lot of different pollsters, what they do, strengths and weaknesses and some general comment about polling issues. Apparently a few people out there looking for this sorta thing.
TELL YOUNGSTERS TO ENROL TO VOTE. THEY HAVE TILL 8PM TOMORROW, AND CAN DO IT ONLINE: http://www.aec.gov.au/enrol/
lefty
Our wager outcome will still be interesting but ironically probably won’t be influenced by the debate. I thought Rudd did slightly better, but he was expected to.
I too have also always benefited in life from low expectations. It’s a good place to be!
I think, considering his position is a load of shit on the issue, Abbott’s dodge in the same sex marriage question was actually well played.
Ken Robertson wins Dio’s iDIOt of the day. ‘Nuff said.
Looks like a 23 yo for Hotham
[Clare O’Neil, who at 23 became the youngest female mayor in Australian history, has emerged as a contender for the safe Labor seat of Hotham.]
She’d be the youngest female MP ever if/when elected.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/young-labor-star-favoured-to-step-in-after-rudd-dumps-candidate-20130811-2rppl.html#ixzz2beXKPKsp
http://sports.betfair.com/?tmi=26622008&ex=2&ti=2378961&q=federal
Betfair.
Might be meaningless but just a little less meaningless than worms as on betfair you have to fork out dosh to affect the odds…and many thousands have been forked out in the last few minutes (watch the total market in the view full market section.
$5.90 right now!
Well Marriage Equality is part of the debate now.
“@chrismurphys: There will be no gay marriage under any Government I lead. @TonyAbbottMHR hugs gay sister for votes & destroys hope for gay ppl.#auspol”
[Sandra Sully @Sandra_Sully 4m
LEADERS’ DEBATE: The results from the @channeltennews twitter poll. #leadersdebate #ausvotes pic.twitter.com/KBxVU9K9aG ]
[The Ten News/Twitter poll result is in. Kevin Rudd wins debate 61% to 39% #tennews ]
Bang! Game onski.
$2.15 million in the election market on Betfair alone now.
Back down to $5.60…….big bets must be happening!
Newspoll 54 LNP 46 ALP
Primaries: LNP 48 ALP 35 Grn 8 Others 9
Labor already emailing with the 100 days pledge.
We’ll see Mick.
I do think Rudd won it by general agreement (except in 7 land) – so it will at least be a interesting test of whether debates matter.
BE BLUE
POOR CHAP DO CATCH UP
Todd @_AdamTodd 16m
The Ten News/Twitter poll result is in. Kevin Rudd wins debate 61% to 39% #tennews #ausvotes #leadersdebate pic.twitter.com/Rj7KDl6j87
I will put in big letters for you RUDD 61.
SURF RUNNER 39
ben blue
work experience kid from mingho getting dragooned into working on a sunday night
CHANEL 7
well we know not to watch them any more
what debate did they watch
peeps will be laughing at them
Vote early and often
http://youdecide.ninemsn.com.au/
big business splurging their tax cut with the bookies before they even get it Mod Lib
I have finished another bottle of shiraz as well. My evening posts never count, okay?
Confessions
Good on them its an issue that has just been begging to be taken up.
It will make a huge difference. Pity not earkier to get young people to enrol.
Rudd clearly won the debate and Abbott floundered offering an extended version of his three word slogans.
I was hoping for a question on gay marriage and we got it while Abbott refers to his gay sister he still denies her right to be married – go figure.
I was hoping like hell that Rudd would not flick his hair or something and he didn’t.
Apparently Oakes Vanstone and even Lachlan Harris are not in touch with what the public are thinking vis a vis the worms result.
I will say it again we can win this if everyone is disciplined for the next four weeks.
Onto more mysterious matters ‘fess
Why doesn’t Perth BOM have a doppler radar? 😛
Rudd didn’t mention the supposed Abbott victory speech. Surely that would have been a “must mention” if it would stick.
Try again: 8.00 gremlin.
lefty
The twitter results are even more nonsense than the worms. There’d be about 3 people from the 65-90 demographic in there, and not too many 50+ either.
ML
Thanks for the Betfair link – much more fun to watch than sportingbet.
I was wondering when Rudd will bring up SSM.
Lao:
Aaaarrgghhh! Don’t start!!
“@AustralianLabor: It’s time for marriage equality. Support @KRuddMP’s pledge for a vote in first 100 days of next Parliament @ItsTimeAus #debate”
[ There’d be about 3 people from the 65-90 demographic in there, and not too many 50+ either.]
True. When are we expecting the next lot of proper polls?
the GST issue must really be having an impact as it keeps being mentioned. good idea to keep this one up.