ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49

An automated phone poll conducted today supports the broader polling picture of ongoing drift away from Labor, although a new Galaxy poll is somewhat more hopeful for them.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll has the Coalition’s lead at 53-47 up from 52-48 last week, from primary votes of 36.9% for Labor (down 0.6%), 46.9% for the Coalition (up 1.2%) and 8.9 for the Greens (down 0.7%). On the all-inclusive preferred prime minister rating, Tony Abbott leads Kevin Rudd 53-47, up from 50.9-49.1 in the poll conducted on Sunday immediately after the election was called.

UPDATE: And now another Galaxy poll, this time national, and slightly better for Labor than other recent results. The Labor primary vote is at 38%, down two on the last national Galaxy result of a fortnight ago, with the Coalition and the Greens each up one to 45% and 10%. On two-party preferred the Coalition leads 51-49, compared with 50-50 last time. Kevin Rudd maintains a handy 47-34 lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, although it’s down from 51-34. There are also questions on the respective leaders’ greatest weaknesses which you can see here. The poll was conducted from Wednesday to Friday from a sample of 1002.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,822 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition; Galaxy 51-49”

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  1. keep in mind 2010,, the media mostly went for abbott
    re winning the debate

    we may excpect that this time

    its such good publicty for him and for
    the non watchers

  2. Channel 9 news ‘Tony Abbott wants to get the economy going again’
    If the ALP can’t or don’t address a strategy to deal with the dumbfuck popular perception that the economy is rooted
    they
    can’t
    win.

  3. [What i do understand is that the political duopoly do not want to involve…]

    You don’t seem to understand that the “duopoly” gets over 80% of the primary vote. This is why they are the duopoly not some secret pact to deny Her Greenesty.

  4. Regarding the debate and economic credibility of Labor, there is a counter point I hope Rudd makes.

    Conservatives have tried to argue that the stimulus did not save Australia from the GFC – it was China. Yet now things are getting tougher, they seek to blame Labor and not the Chinese economic slowdown. They can’t have it both ways.

    If China does not make that much difference, then it was the Labor stimulus that got Australia through the GFC. Advantage Labor.

    If China does make a lot of difference, then Labor was correct to downgrade forecasts, and Abbott’s unfunded promises will never happen. Advantage Labor.

  5. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/fall-in-wages-puts-britain-in-europes-bottom-four-8755957.html

    “New figures collated by the House of Commons Library show a 5.5 per cent drop in wages after inflation since 2010. This follows other recent national statistics on the rising cost of living and a substantial fall in living standards since the first of George Osborne’s austerity budgets was delivered three years ago.”

    If Mr Abbott says want to get the Economy going, then he needs to let the Austerity measures go.

  6. confessions
    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 6:05 pm | PERMALINK
    Antony Green says Labor will likely lose 3 seats in Victoria.

    ———-

    risky prediction

    when in 2 or 3weeks time he may saying the opposite

  7. [If Mr Abbott says want to get the Economy going, then he needs to let the Austerity measures go.]

    Yep, and this is the message. Savage cuts will send us into recession.

  8. rua

    Then the duopoly should not fear Senator Milne as part of the debate.

    If the debate was called the Prime Ministerial Debate like the Presidential one is I too would agree only Abbott and Rudd should be debating.

    Otherwise it should be more open. However who knows maybe PMKR will agree to debate on a social media platform with Senator Milne to show how gutless Abbott is in avoiding it.

  9. Abbott
    “I will not do deals”
    “I will not do deals”
    pause
    “There will be no Abbott minority government ”
    “There will be no Abbott minority government ”
    pause

    “I will get rid of the carbon and mining tax”
    I will get rid of the carbon and mining tax”

    pause starts to lick his lips

    “I will stop the boats”
    I will stop the boats”

    and so on

  10. guytaur

    What primary vote allows a party to be part of the debate? Is it fair to have Greens but not PUP or Katter or One Nation or Family First.

    Set the bar wherever you like but remember to stick to the outcome.

  11. [If Mr Abbott says want to get the Economy going, then he needs to let the Austerity measures go.

    Yep, and this is the message. Savage cuts will send us into recession.]
    Exactly right. We have already seen the risk of this. When Howard first got in he cut the public service too far and nearly created a recession in 1997. ACT did go into a sharp recession, before Howard quietly hired back more than he had cut. Only a boom in Asia then mining saved us from a Howard austerity recession.

  12. Delighted to hear about the intention to act on gay marriage. It is the morally correct policy, and will help with the young vote. Abbott’s religious zealotry will also be exposed.

  13. [Antony Green says Labor will likely lose 3 seats in Victoria.]

    I am sure Anthony would have had a qualifier in this statement somewhere. Canny bugger is Mr Nantucket Sleigh Ride.

  14. If Milne joined the leaders debate nobody would watch. She is the most unwatchable, unlistenable MP in living memory. Wholly lacking in any warmth, or charisma. Her presence would ensure the debates were never again covered by any mainstream TV network through total lack of viewers.

    Besides, I’d argue the Nationals leader has more entitlement to be part of the leader debates than the Greens leader. At least the Nat leader has a chance at being acting PM, and actually sits in Cabinet when the coalition is in govt.

  15. [Besides, I’d argue the Nationals leader has more entitlement to be part of the leader debates than the Greens leader. At least the Nat leader has a chance at being acting PM, and actually sits in Cabinet when the coalition is in govt.]

    Which is a little frightening and the public could do well to be reminded!

  16. “@kerrinbinnie: #LeadersDebate format: @KRuddMP 3min open, @TonyAbbottMHR 3min open. Moderator + panel ask questions. 2min answer, 1 min rebuttle #ausvotes”

  17. Ruawake,

    What don’t u understand about the term ‘leader’ 😉

    There is a private member’s bill currently before parliament: Commonwealth Electoral Amendment (Leaders’ Debate Commission) Bill 2013
    http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=s927
    [Amends the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 to: establish a Leaders’ Debate Commission to implement a system to convene three or more debates between the leaders of each registered political party prior to a federal election; provide for the appointment, functions and powers of a commissioner and seven deputy commissioners; and include a reporting requirement and a regulation making power.]

    This commission had been one of the conditions in the agreement signed between Gillard and the Greens in 2010.

  18. Bolte the quintessential Liberal thinks its funny/comical that a person should be sacked for abusing a person in a wheelchair…

  19. [She is the most unwatchable, unlistenable MP in living memory. Wholly lacking in any warmth, or charisma.]
    And there u have it…exhibit A — shallow, superficial, completely unbiased character assessment lol

  20. New2This

    Posted Sunday, August 11, 2013 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    Great news coverage of Tony…
    —————————————–

    there is no such thing

  21. I’m not going to watch. This week I am ignoring the 24-hour news cycle and political shows and watching the 30 second news grabs and reading main headlines, just for a perspective on what most people see.

    Should be interesting. I will start tonight – ignore the debate and then watch the news tomorrow to see how it is spun.

  22. “@senatormilne: What is not said tonight will be more interesting than what is.CSG, Coal exports,Galilee Basin, and dumping sludge on GBR. #debate #Ausvotes”

  23. Chicken and Shitake Mushroom Risotto on the plate, rolled up sock ready to throw at TV.

    Lets the masses have a debate. 😆

  24. William reported on close to 40 polls for the period of the 2010 election including individual seats etc.

    It makes up for those boring times when no one is polling.

  25. POROTI 1287

    My sympathy I know what you mean I had one of the govt sponsored tests(after Rotary one said all clear) and they found tiny tiny polyp, but still have to have a colonoscopy each 4 years,even though all clear

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