The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.
The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.
The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.
The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.
It appears to have been a good day for the ALP today….having only lost 15 Billion
[2919
Compact Crank
Rudd is an atypical nerdy lefty]
Which demonstrates that like nearly everyone else in Australia you have mistaken the brand for the product. Time was, Rudd would have been quite at home inside a Liberal Party populated by the likes of Ian McPhee, Ian Viner and Fred Chaney.
[Malcolm Turnbull @TurnbullMalcolm 6m
So inspired tonight by the winners of the Premier’s awards for outstanding cancer research.]
I’d like to think that if MT was LOTO we’d at least be spared a vacuous campaign from hell with families, daughters, stupid selfies, and grandchildren at 20 paces. This tweet gives a hint of what might otherwise be.
And then I remember all those photos from Bondi with the dogs, Lucy and his wife, and realise that it’s just a pipe dream.
[It appears to have been a good day for the ALP today….having only lost 15 Billion]
I haven’t really been following the news today, but I gather Abbott has now committed himself to the Gonski schools funding, but is continuing to oppose all the revenue and savings measures which will pay for it. Perhaps Mod Lib can suggest how Abbott will make that work.
Compact crank ‘I’ve copped plenty of abuse from other posters on PB for my military background.’
You weren’t a captain called Colin were you?
[2951
Mod Lib
It appears to have been a good day for the ALP today….having only lost 15 Billion]
This has completely wrong-footed the LNP. They can no longer run on the promise of imaginary tax cuts, fictional surplus and aspirational spending plans.
They just have nothing in the tank.
PB no
[It appears to have been a good day for the ALP today….having only lost 15 Billion]
Just imagine how much worse the budget bottom line would be having to stump up for direct action!
Labor’s public service efficiency dividend, increasing from 1.25% to 2.25% from July 2014, might increase the probability of Greens’ ACT Senate candidate Simon Sheikh getting elected.
[ Perhaps Mod Lib can suggest how Abbott will make that work.]
I am afraid Mod Lib is unable to assist you (or Abbott) in this endeavour. However, after the ALP Prime Minister and ALP Treasurer were boasting not so long ago about “the four surplusses we are announcing today” to much guffawing, and then we had a surplus this year, and then we had an 18 Billion deficit and now we have a 33 Billion deficit….well, you kinda start to get the feeling the ALP haven’t a clue, don’t you? 🙂
Briefly – there is plenty in the tank – just it is very stupid tactics to reveal too much before the campaign – Give us an election date and you’ll start seeing more info at the tactically appropriate times.
[2955
PeeBee
Compact crank ‘I’ve copped plenty of abuse from other posters on PB for my military background.’]
As I recall, no-one mocked CC on account of his military career, per se. What attracted derision were the blimpish claims to be an “expert” on boats, camps and foreigners simply on account of military service. Such claims are about as valid as claiming to know about dairy farming because you eat ice cream.
Confessions @2958
As much as I despise DA it is capped spending.
[ The Coalition has opposed what used to be called the Gonski education funding reforms right from, almost literally, the moment they were released — the opposition’s education spokesman, Christopher Pyne, famously didn’t even bother reading the initial report after it was released before emerging to attack it. And it was only a few weeks ago that Pyne was assuring one and all that the Coalition would repeal the government’s education funding reforms before the end of the year. The Gonski funding reform model was a “Conski”, Pyne declared in April. And NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell had been “conned” by former PM Julia Gillard into signing up.
Well, forget about all that: the Coalition has surrendered, unconditionally, on education funding, announcing this morning it was adopting Labor’s funding process entirely.
It also illustrated the core problem facing the Coalition: Pyne …… managed to produce no education policy beyond opposition to Gonski. Where one might have expected an alternative, there was only a huge blank spot and serious questions for the states and private schools.
…Funny what happens when an election you thought was in the bag is suddenly in the balance.
Gillard and former education minister Peter Garrett, both of whose political careers are probably about to formally end if Kevin Rudd goes to Yarralumla this weekend, can enjoy some belated — but total — vindication.]
http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/08/02/abbotts-unconditional-surrender-on-gonski-education-reforms/
[after the ALP Prime Minister and ALP Treasurer were boasting not so long ago about “the four surplusses we are announcing today” to much guffawing, and then we had a surplus this year, and then we had an 18 Billion deficit and now we have a 33 Billion deficit….]
Modlib
What! no surplus?…… but Swany said so
[2961
Compact Crank
Briefly – there is plenty in the tank – just it is very stupid tactics to reveal too much before the campaign – Give us an election date and you’ll start seeing more info at the tactically appropriate times.]
Tactics? Wot are they? Are they those small white lollies that come in little plastic boxes? Will the LNP election platform consist of mints and fan-tales?
[Modlib
What! no surplus?…… but Swany said so]
If the ALP predicts something, I reckon your best bet is betting on the opposite.
Such activity would have made you very wealthy over the last 6 years! 🙂
@Mod Lib/2967
Yet, Coalition Party keep spending on their promises, like the WA Goverment did in last election.
Mod, rummel, you might have noticed that we have a different ALP duo now :P.
[DisplayName
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 9:58 pm | PERMALINK
Mod, rummel, you might have noticed that we have a different ALP duo now]
Its not the “This reckless spending has to stop” guy is it?
LOL 🙂
[As much as I despise DA it is capped spending.]
I don’t think so. There’s that 5% carbon emissions reduction commitment…
Compact Crank@2961
General Wenck ?
Or Bags of Smoke and Up the Guts ?
Both ?
[like the WA Goverment did in last election.]
the one which won in a landslide?
[I am afraid Mod Lib is unable to assist you (or Abbott) in this endeavour. However, after the ALP Prime Minister and ALP Treasurer were boasting not so long ago about “the four surplusses we are announcing today” to much guffawing, and then we had a surplus this year, and then we had an 18 Billion deficit and now we have a 33 Billion deficit….well, you kinda start to get the feeling the ALP haven’t a clue, don’t you?]
So Labor doesnt have the answers and the current Liberals are clearly clueless.
What would Malcolm do differently?
[2965
rummel
after the ALP Prime Minister and ALP Treasurer were boasting not so long ago about “the four surplusses we are announcing today” to much guffawing, and then we had a surplus this year, and then we had an 18 Billion deficit and now we have a 33 Billion deficit….
Modlib
What! no surplus?…… but Swany said so]
The Howard inheritance….a busted revenue system.
[Mod, rummel, you might have noticed that we have a different ALP duo now 😛 .]
Yep.. and where did the money go! Swany has not been gone for that long and he was crowing on about this thing called Labor surplus.
@Mod Lib/2973
There’s that… I hear they not happy campers now.
A reasonable effort by Australia at lunch on Day 2.
They need to consolidate in the second period.
In the lead up to the federal election, the CPSU have been campaigning on the threat posed by Coalition plans to cut thousands of APS jobs, reduce public services and strip up to $70 billion from public spending.
The CPSU Executive met this afternoon and decided to suspend all Federal election campaigning ahead of a crisis meeting on 5 August.
Will be interesting to see what change in campaign strategy will ensue.
Mod,
Following our discussion the other night, I realised I was lazily tarring all of NSW state Labor politicians with the same brush just as you were. If I stop being lazy and am able to figure out that my local member had nothing to do with the goings on, I might even vote for them. Thanks for revealing my hypocrisy, it got me to put away my indiscriminate cricket bat ;).
[What would Malcolm do differently?]
I get the feeling he is not a big fan of DA…..but perhaps I am too cynical in my old age.
I reckon he and Sinodinos would be able to get the ship back in order, stop this reckless spending (locking up kids behind barbed wire for a start), wind back some spending, knock a few unions on the head, introduce a little flexibility in workplace relations (whatever they can get away with without scaring the natives too much) and then enjoying the chaos that will be the ALP in Opposition.
@Peg/2979
Interesting.
Confessions – the spending is capped. If the target isn’t reached then that’s tough titties.
[It appears to have been a good day for the ALP today….having only lost 15 Billion]
They won’t be too worried, after all, its someone else’s money they’ve lost
Mod Lib@2967
DisplayName:
Always happy to help folk with their epiphanies!
[They won’t be too worried, after all, its someone else’s money they’ve lost]
Yes, some of it is mine.
I am looking forward to the time when they can no longer get their grubby hands on it!
Confessions, DA is only a mechanism to give public money to their rural mates. It has nothing to do with CO2 reduction. When the money will be handed over, there will be some excuse to say that we can’t afford to meet the targwt etc etc. and besides don’t forget CO2 is harmless anyway and besides Australia doesn’t produce that much anyway.
@Mod Lib/2987
Death and Taxes.
Taxes always bad under Coalition Party.
[I reckon he and Sinodinos would be able to get the ship back in order, stop this reckless spending (locking up kids behind barbed wire for a start), wind back some spending, knock a few unions on the head, introduce a little flexibility in workplace relations (whatever they can get away with without scaring the natives too much) and then enjoying the chaos that will be the ALP in Opposition.]
So in other words, the same empty, meaningless slogans the hated Abbott offers?
I’m shocked. Is there no current Liberal MP who stands for something other than populist rhetoric?
You may as well vote for the Happy Little Vegemite from Brisbane who’s here to help.
[ Perhaps Mod Lib can suggest how Abbott will make that work. ]
Sell Telstra! oh wait
The National Tertiary Education Union (NTEU) is running a campaign in response to the uni cuts.
It is advocating Vote Greens in the Senate, Vote 1 Andrew Wilke and Vote 1 Adam Bandt
http://votesmart.org.au/
rummel, Swan halved the deficit left over from the GFC spending. Independently of a discussion of the merits of various budget trajectories, I believe they were seriously trying to get back into surplus and made the mistake of turning Treasury forecasts into a promise. Rudd on the other hand has not committed to the prior trajectory.
[You may as well vote for the Happy Little Vegemite from Brisbane who’s here to help.]
You will be won’t you? :devil:
and (as Maxwell Smart would say) loving it!
It’s Wilkie, of course
[Confessions – the spending is capped. If the target isn’t reached then that’s tough titties.]
Thanks for confirming that today’s Liberal party rejects the relationship between human-generated CO2 emissions and planetary warming, and that their current climate change policy is nothing but shallow spin designed to hoodwink the electorate into thinking the Liberals give a shit about AGW, much less accept it as valid scientific reality.
Goverment Debt to GDP dropped from 22.9 to 20.7
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/government-debt-to-gdp
So I guess the only question now is when the ALP will deliver the next downgrade of the Australian Economy- in other words the election announcement?
PeeBee:
Indeed. Much like today’s expressed support for Gonski.
A means to an end, and not much else.
[zoidlord
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 10:13 pm | PERMALINK
Goverment Debt to GDP dropped from 22.9 to 20.7]
It looks like that graph shows Govt Debt to GDP plummeting under the Libs and soaring under the ALP.
That can’t be right, can it? :devil: