The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.
The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.
The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.
The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.
Rossmore@2865
In the early 1960’s when Khrushchev was in political trouble at home he used to regularly taunt Europe and the west in general about the number of nuclear weapons he was going to drop on various countries, which were taken very seriously.
The UK had plans to evacuate as many women and children as possible to Canada and Australia.
The USSR and China had a big falling out over the USSR ‘change of heart’ over transferring nuclear weapons to China but before that Mao wanted USSR to combine in war against the US.
His ‘approach’ was that together they must succeed in part because China at that time had a population of about 600 million of which he was not upset if half were killed as they could be replaced.
All in covered in – “Berlin 1961 – Most Dangerous Place on Earth”.
http://www.amazon.com/Berlin-1961-Kennedy-Khrushchev-Dangerous/dp/0425245942
As an aside Mao also killed up to 45 million during the so called ‘Great Leap Forward’ 1958 – 1962 which was followed by more deaths in the Cultural Revolution straight after that.
@CC/2897
So you saying that Howard Border Policy isn’t working ?
@BW/2898
Newman I think is light compared to what’s coming Federally.
Why do you think Abbott is praising him all the time.
[@2886 wwp
That’s why Rudd took Howard’s Border Control Policy to the 2007 election and then blew it out his arse.
How’s that working for ya?]
You mean the policy that got bipartisan support in Parliament. Your lies are usually better than this.
@Rossmore
Chilling reading. I recently checked out the “Protect and Survive” series prepared by the British Government, to be broadcast in the event that a nuclear strike against the UK was considered likely. Chilling barely describes the twenty part series.
Boerwar @2889
Took Mrs Crank there for her 40th. I’m no wordsmith so unable to do it justice.
Alex Hawke just said on Contrarians that “it is arguable whether or not smoking is bad for you”.
Yep.
Rudd will destroy Abbott on the economy if Abbott ever musters the nerve to participate in a debate. Rudd has skilfully laid the groundwork for this by allowing the highly competent Chris Bowen and Penny Wong to square with Australian voters on where the economy is at, and what Labor is going to do to navigate the transitional period ahead.
Abbott is a weak debater at the best of times; but on this, his most pitifully weak of subjects, Rudd will carve him limb from limb. He won’t even know what happened to him – except that it will be very bad.
Rudd will explain to the voting public in the simplest, most accessible terms that Abbott is too afraid to have his policies properly costed, too inept to explain how he can begin to fund programmes like PPL and far too inarticulate to begin to paper over the gaping holes.
It will make for most enjoyable viewing. It will make Daniel in the lion’s den look tame.
Sarah Roberts
FFS . The poor chap obviously lead such a deprived life……NOT !!!
[His father was a hotel broker; his mother was a radio actor, writer and academic and a cousin of the British film and television actor Angela Lansbury. They separated when Malcolm was nine and he was brought up by his father. He spent his first three years of school at Vaucluse Public School. He continued his primary education at the Sydney Grammar Prep, St Ives. He then went to Sydney Grammar School’s senior school at College Street in Sydney]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malcolm_Turnbull
WeWantPaul@2873
tories can always dive deeper in the cesspit and stay there longer.
Straya now 333-3 . When are we going to see the traditional middle order collapse ?
[tories can always dive deeper in the cesspit and stay there longer.]
And then make stupid claims that everyone is as bad as them. Disappointing and pathetic. If I want to see insane lies and bizzare divorced from reality right wing fiction I can watch fox on tele I don’t need to come here to read it.
It’s all very well being 3-333 but Oz has to win this Test right? A draw won’t do.
triton
[I didn’t see/hear it, Sarah. I’ve always considered Kohler a gem with finance and economics. Your description sounds very uncharacteristic.]
Like you, I think Kohler is a pretty good finance commentator, but this interview with Turnbull is the pits:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/8/1/commercial/video-turnbull-vs-kohler-great-nbn-debate
My ears were alerted to it by some twitter messages saying wtte that the Kohler and Turnbull ‘debate’ was getting heated.
Pfft. Nothing so much as Turnbull getting the better of Kohler who couldn’t produce any evidence for his accusations, making Kohler look a complete fool and unctuous Turnbull looking like he knew what he was talking about amongst the ahs and ahs and ers and look heres.
If that was a debate, a conversation, a knowledge-fest, then I’ll go he.
If you don’t believe me, and want to waste an hour of your time, then go to
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/8/1/commercial/video-turnbull-vs-kohler-great-nbn-debate
[2863
Compact Crank
Rudd probably hates sportsmen as much as he hates members of the ADF – with a passion.]
This kind of garbage discloses to every reader just what kind of stupidity lurks inside the Tory skull.
Alias – people KNOW Abbott is an economic squib already.
This election will be won or lost on whether Rudd’s inherent popularity overcomes the wider electorate’s negative view of Labor’s economic performance.
A popular PM going up against an unpopular Opp leader does not guarantee victory.
The economic message is vital. That’s why they are doing it now, because it needs to be out there without surprises during what will be a volatile and micro-managed campaign.
[Mr Denmore
A word from the Coalition’s sponsors: ‘Immigration by Toll Holdings, Media by News Corp, Health by Rothmans and Education by the ALP’.]
[ I think Kohler is a pretty good finance commentator, but this interview with Turnbull is the pit ]
Yes.
They are now part of the murdoch empire. They took the $10 m for the business and are now employed by murdoch.
“Who’s Bread I Eat…Who’s Song I Sing”.
Sounds fascinating, Sarah. Kohler always seems on top of everything. He routinely interviews CEOs of all sorts of companies and is well up on the relevant issues.
Boerwar, have you registered your new party? Got any candidates?
Latham openly admitted his hatred for members of the military.
I’ve had plenty of exposure in real life to ALP members and other lefties who hate members of the ADF.
I’ve copped plenty of abuse from other posters on PB for my military background.
Rudd is an atypical nerdy lefty – on the weight of probability he probably hates sports people and members of the ADF.
I see from an ad that just aired during the cricket that the government will be providing me with money.
And Latham and Rudd have openly admitted their hatred for each other, so I don’t know how far guilt by association gets you in this case.
William – I saw an ad posing as a news story tonight that told me our economy was in freefall and I should run for the hills.
Yes fair point GloryConsequence
I think Abbott won’t be able to help himself in his responses to the latest Budget revelations over the next week or so. Despite his apparent uneasy attempt to be more positive (Better Schools reversal is just breathtaking), good old Captain Negative will be in full flight on this Budget topic.
But I suspect Labor’s message will quietly resonate with voters – simply because it is founded on observable truths. For example, everyone remembers when the Rudd government provided the guarantee to banks. And everyone understands that it is perfectly reasonable that the fat, pampered banks can well and truly afford to make a modest contribution to ensuring a rock solid foundation into the future.
And everyone knows that taxing smokers hard is good for smokers and good for the country.
And voters understand that Rudd could have rushed to the polls on a wave of popularity in August, while hiding the Budget shortfalls under the carpet – but that he didn’t; that he squared with voters and treated them like thinking adults.
And voters understand that huge infrastructure projects like the NBN will provide the foundation for countless Australian jobs of the future, even as the jobless rate edges over 6 per cent for the moment.
William – do you think a policy wonk lefty nerd who thinks he is the smartest guy in the room is going to have any respect for Neanderthal sportsmen and military types?
He clearly has issues dealing with RAAF flight staff.
Compact Crank@2919
You’re the one spraying around hate and bile, sunshine.
Smith just had a brain cramp. He’d been so disciplined. What a waste.
William,
I’m not getting on a boat to Australia anymore because I saw an Ad on TV here in Queensland telling me not to get on a boat because I won’t end up in Australia.
Very informative.
@William,
Are we expecting polls this tonight/this weekend?
The ADF has goodun’s and badun’s like every other organisation.
Houston=Good Chap
Molan=Blimpy Bill
poroti
Oh, poor Malcolm Turnbull whose mother turned out to be less than conventional and so deserves to be called by her Christian name by her only begotten son, a product of her second marriage, an aberration to her intellect, to an hotel broker.
The hotel broker who took another 30 years to furnish the flat his more-financial wife cleaned out, didn’t even leave chairs, to earn enough to buy an acreage that Malcolm now considers himself to be a husbandry expert of the beef residing thereon.
Laughed more than out loud when he showed Crabbe how to feed the cattle.
Tsk tsk.
Ahh, haven’t the time to contribute more, but must say, many thanks to everyone for all contributions. I especially loved the examination of all things left.
Special thanks to Fran – who always never ceases to amaze with her dense, well-argued prose. Always loaded, often misunderstood.
Check you all later. Work to do.
What I think is that, like Homer Simpson before you, you’re having an unaccountably hard time distinguishing 1980s teen comedies from reality. And I’m absolutely certain that Rudd is no more pleasant in his dealings with the civilian help.
[ I’m not getting on a boat to Australia anymore ]
You’re boat goes to NZ, truthie.
Lets hope you set sail 🙂
Zoidlord
Newspoll
Um, Warner gone. And another completely wasted review. Idiot.
[Yes Turnbull is dumb as a box of hammers and knows nothing of business having never made any money whatsoever]
A lawyer, a journalist, a banker and a politician.
No, no bullshit there.
David Warner would appear to be even thicker than Shane Watson.
Where is my Ash Agar?
[Rudd is an atypical nerdy lefty – on the weight of probability he probably hates sports people and members of the ADF.]
There’s nothing “lefty” about Rudd. In European terms he would be a moderate Christian Democrat, about the same position as Angela Merkel, and probably a bit to the right of David Cameron. He only looks “left” because the Coalition has veered off to the far right.
[Um, Warner gone. And another completely wasted review. Idiot.]
Was he actually out or not? I was otherwise engaged at the time.
He was about as out as Elton John
I’m surprised Clarke let the Review be used.
[ I’m no wordsmith so unable to do it justice]
Copy and paste, you can do that ok.
@Mod Lib/2937
Are you calling for Turnbull again ? 😛
@Psephos/2938
To the Far right that is…
[Rudd is an atypical nerdy lefty]
Not really. He just does populist sentiment better than anyone else on the landscape at present.
There really doesn’t appear to be anything ‘lefty’ about him.
[zoidlord
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 9:35 pm | PERMALINK
@Mod Lib/2937
Are you calling for Turnbull again ?]
That post was not one of the 30% of your posts which I can understand 🙂
triton
‘Boerwar, have you registered your new party? Got any candidates?’
We are having trouble with the registration process.
All candidates are potential candidates. Just run them through the basic Informal Party standards.
[He was about as out as Elton John]
Clarke is with him. WTF was he thinking allowing the last review to be wasted, then?
2938
Those who want an actual left wing candidate have to vote for the Greens to get a left wing candidate with any chance of winning and being a serious influence.
It was a funny wicket in that he whacked his pad as hard as he whacked the ball and so might have not felt the ball vibrating on the bat as you normally do, and the sound would have been dampened by the bat hitting the pad.
All in all, its one where you might give the batsman the benefit of the doubt.
Clarke on the other hand is a twat.
[I’ve had plenty of exposure in real life to ALP members and other lefties who hate members of the ADF]
I’m more concerned with the taxpayer funded hatred and abuse that comes from sections of the ADF and the sheer cowardice from within the ranks that allows it to fester.