The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.
The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.
The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.
The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.
Don’t independents usually get a good run at re-election (as they’ve proven that somebody outside of the 2 parties can win that seat), unless of course they do something big to piss the electorate off (like support a political party for government, that represents a different ideology than that of the electorate) – or am I just imagining that?
Boerwar
In the West the MILF may need a name change else their aims may be tragically misinterpreted 😉
I say again, the real test on unemploymetn is compared to other nations. Try this site to generate fun graphs. I just compared Australian unemployment to Ireland, and found that in the Howard era unemployment went down faster in Ireland than Australia.
For real fun, try comparing Howard’s unemployment to countries like USA or Canada, which were clearly better than Oz under Howard, but worse than Australia under Labor.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/australia/unemployment-rate
You can put in the range of years to compare.
Riminton with a reasonably balanced report on Ten. Figures on the screen didn’t look too good though.
Hockey looked mental for his 4 second sound grab.
Nothing on the Abbott backflip on school reforms.
Socrates, comparing like to like? Ridiculous!
Actually to cut spending besides the political pain is potentially straight forward
First the Government needs to decide on its core purpose.
The problem with the Government is it sees things from how much are we spending rather than matching the objective with outcomes.
This was touched on last week on Q&A when Peter Sergold made the point that once you are successful Government cuts you off.
What this leads to is a culture of needing to fail or spend for spend sake. I know i always pick on JSA but it is a good example.
The funding model is based around various streams with stream four job seekers having a greater level of funding than stream one job seekers.
In theory this looks like the right approach for the stream four job seekers have greater barriers to employment than stream one.
But by default the Government is saying we will award agencies for having job seekers on their books for a longer period.
Another example is how Government funding operates, if a department makes a profit, it cannot kept it but rather needs to return it too Treasury losing any benefit from a successful business plan.
Another way Government hurts itself is the need for an agency to fully use its budget or risk losing that level of funding for future years, this forces agencies to spend for spend sake.
Other issues relate to the structure of Government.
Each department has its own
H.R strategy
I.T strategy
Record Management Strategy
I could go on but Government is in need of reform, starting off by viewing itself one business.
Yes there are different functions but this is where Government needs to put in place the flexibilities to respond to that.
The biggest mistake a Government can make is too mandate a set amount to cut, it needs to focus more on matching the outcomes with the purpose.
[I hope you are right and the Greens wrong.]
GT
The Greens are playing politics on their policy on Newstart. Nothing wrong in that.
But they do miss the point on DSP, as do most people who have not applied to receive it.
glory – Nothing on the Abbott backflip on school reforms.
It was suggested here earlier that by the end of next week Gonski will be Abbott’s idea especially if Victoria gets on board.
[It was suggested here earlier that by the end of next week Gonski will be Abbott’s idea especially if Victoria gets on board.]
Well, if it turns out anything like the NDIS, Abbott will be the hero for allowing it to happen and Rudd, the bad guy for slugging us with the cost…
DTT
[States ceded voluntarily their right to raise income taxes, but there is NOTHING to stop them legally changing their minds
It is a constitutional right.]
Er … 1942 High Court Challenge by SA, WA, Qld, Vic to the Income Tax Act Good coverage http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Australia_v_Commonwealth Probably the BEST coverage in R.G.Menzies’ Central Power in the Australian Commonwealth; not surprising, since RGM is now known to have been in close discussions with PM Curtin during the period.
The High Court held the laws were valid, despite the practical result being the inability of the states to impose income tax.
The effect of the High Court Decision is that, while States haven’t been absolutely prohibited from imposing Income Tax, States can only impose/collect income tax as an addition to the Commonwealth’s Taxes, which must be met & are collected by the Commonwealth.
More Importantly; any State which imposes Income Tax automatically cuts itself off from any federal grant monies, for as long as the taxes in place!
If, for instance, a person/entity is paying 31% minimum Commonwealth income tax; that must be paid to the Commonwealth. If a State then wants to apply, say, 30% minimum tax, that State’s taxpayers will be paying 61% minimum Income Tax. Another State with poor revenues might want to impose 45% Income tax (total income tax 76%) OTOH, a richer state might impose 10%, or 0%.
A somewhat similar/ fire warning situation arose when Joh BP’s QLD’s Gov scrapped Death Duties but no other State did. What ensued was mass migration of older people, especially the rich & very rich, to Queensland (esp Gold Coast).
Southern States, esp Victoria, saw a mass exit of capital, investments, the community-minded etc North to the Sunshine State – so greatly enriching QLD that effects were actually soon visible in skyscraper blocks, better shops, restaurants, tourist attractions, state revenue etc. So much so, other states soon abolished Death Duties.
Uneven State Tax regimes would likely have the same effects, with those who can afford to shift to a state with a lower income tax do so.
IOW, DTT: Ain’t gunna happen!
DSP is not structurally a problem, it offers flexibility for the person to study and gain employment for up to two years but the problem is the DSP job seeker is forced into social welfare programs that do more harm than good.
[Well, if it turns out anything like the NDIS, Abbott will be the hero for allowing it to happen and Rudd, the bad guy for slugging us with the cost…]
Carey, are you telling me the Greens haven’t already claimed Gonski as their own? Wasn’t there a similar Greens V Abbott contest over which of them was entitled to claim bragging rights over the NDIS?
@MB/2711
Yup that’s right.
Social Welfare programs do not help us at all.
It also forces us to use some the resources we get from the goverment when it could be used elsewhere.
I just prefer the goverment (either party) to leave us alone.
Labor should put up a credits page for different policies/projects similar to movie credits. A huge long list of every individual that contributed to its construction.
Then they can point idiots to it.
I think I’ll keep an eye out on the weekend. Got a flier in the mail from Wyatt Roy and noticed that no only didn’t it have any mention of :monkey: but didn’t even have LNP branding. The only indication was the blue theme. I wonder if they’ll have :monkey: face on their placards in the road side. The local Labors candidate has Kev’s mug but I suspect Wyatt might avoid being tainted by Abbott (or Newman)
Zoidberg
I do think there is a need for good social programs but its important to ensure that the purpose is aligned with the outcomes.
This isn’t easy as two people are often have different needs but it seems that on many occasions the objective is more for claiming we are doing something rather than we have actually done something.
Another example has been the move in recent years by Government to increase funding to private educational institutes with the objective of increasing competition.
This has lead to many gradulates receiving certificates which employers view as questionable.
It may well be better to start off by asking employers where they want the education budget spent and focusing on ensuring competition in that.
There is a good reason why employers rate certain universities and tafes over no-name educational providers.
This isn’t to say that the door can’t be open to new educational providers but they surely need to earn their market share before Government starts diverting funds away from the market leaders.
More intellectual dishonesty from the Liberals
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=jM1YczIhS6E
boers
[I assume that Clark will have to make another 450 runs to ensure that Australia does not go three zip.]
tonight? or the rest of the series?
Socrates
[Thanks for the reminder. It is a pitty most people had forgotten why Howard was first nicknamed “Honest John” when he became PM.]
Nyaaah! He acquired it a as Treasurer. For the same reason red-heads are called “Blue”. Its usage is old (probably Cockney) English. “Honest John”, often used as a trade name by pawn shops, floggers of “Two bob watches” & the like had long been slang for “dishonest: and “Shyster”
Just caught up with the latest economic revision which seems to confirm what Hockey said back in May that the budget assumptions were optimistic.
OzPol Tragic
I was nae here then but was the “Honest John” nickname acquired after the “Fistful of Dollars” election ads ?
I think, maybe, an election soonish might be advisable. I think some of the bad economic news today are just the foreshock of some further bad stuff to come.
Well logged on and I see scrolling through Cranky is back plus baby Sean and Geoff so things must be getting a bit sticky for the Libs, plus of course the fence sitter Rummel but not a Rudd fence sitter evidently now 😀
Anyway off for the day with the boys riding buses I believe
Only hours from the event & Peter Martin ABC24 saying Abbott will get away with his massive back flip on education.
@MB/2716
Agreed.
Anthony Albanese @AlboMP 1m
Yesterday Tories said Labor’s Better Schools Plan was a con, now Tony Abbott says he supports it #unbelievable
Mikehilliard – if it’s a backflip to support a popular policy, people don’t care.
mari – no public transport plans under the noalition so make the most of the buses.
@davidwh/2720
I think it was also optimistic.
Mark Riley confirms that he is near certain, according to reliable sources, Rudd will call the election on Sunday for September 7th
@GC/2729
Snap election?
davidwh
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 6:21 pm | PERMALINK
Just caught up with the latest economic revision which seems to confirm what Hockey said back in May that the budget assumptions were optimistic.
——————-
Hockey needs to resign or challenge for the leadership, abbott backkflip on the school funding package made hockey look foolish
Whats wrong with being optimistic?
gloryconsequence
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 6:35 pm | PERMALINK
Mark Riley confirms that he is near certain, according to reliable sources, Rudd will call the election on Sunday for September 7th
——-
same Mark Riley was certain that Peter Garrett would be the next pm
[@MB/2716
Agreed.
Anthony Albanese @AlboMP 1m
Yesterday Tories said Labor’s Better Schools Plan was a con, now Tony Abbott says he supports it #unbelievable]
Why is it unbelievable? The ALP has been matching Coalition policy when it suits them since the leadup to the 2007 election.
An election while the G20 is on? Unbe-smurfing-lievable. Even going for August 31 would have been better than that. 🙁
sean can go for a wee nemspys here
[Mark Riley confirms that he is near certain, according to reliable sources, Rudd will call the election on Sunday for September 7th]
So it won’t happen then. 😆
[Meguire Bob
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 6:38 pm | Permalink
davidwh
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 6:21 pm | PERMALINK
Just caught up with the latest economic revision which seems to confirm what Hockey said back in May that the budget assumptions were optimistic.
——————-
Hockey needs to resign or challenge for the leadership, abbott backkflip on the school funding package made hockey look foolish]
How does every ALP member who ever ranted against the Howard government’s asylum policies look now that Rudd has not only, effectively, brought them back, but gone a step further? You’re really starting to unhinge, Bob.
[Is it Howard who has the record of double digit inflation, umemployment and interest – all at the same time? Can anyone confirm?]
Yes. As Treasurer. In fact the top Interest during his time in Treasury is still was the highest EVAH (Menzies’ first term Inflation – over 22% – is the highest inflation EVAH). Howard’s mid-Aug 1982 to 5 March 1983 Budget deficit was in excess of A$9 billion. In 2007, adjusted for inflation, this was over A$40 billion for 6.5 months. It was so dire, it made headlines overseas.
Howard also misled PM Fraser about the debt; leading, in Fraser’s concession speech after he lost to Hawke, to his saying wtte “I leave the economy in very good shape”. Within days, the nation knew this was the opposite of true. Fraser is said never to have forgiven Howard; though that might have changed (possibly, a bit, maybe) as age softened the man portrayed by cartoonists as an Easter Island stone statue.
John Stone, Howard’s Head of Treasurer called him wtte “The worst post-war Treasurer in the Western/?developed World”
This was JUST the thing Abbott needed to annihilate Rudd the Dudd at the election with.
Oxygen will now be sucked out of Labors campaign.
Betting markets agree and have surged in the Coalitions favour.
@Nemspy/2734
Because they being hammered on Education Cuts in the states?
Sean
Before you get too excited the Liberal will at some point need to reveal what is to be slashed or at some point seriously upset a large part of the voters when they see broken promises.
Nemspy
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 6:41 pm | PERMALINK
You’re really starting to unhinge, Bob.
————————
In what way
The coalition and thier supporters are the ones unhinged
Abbott today showed what liars they are
The Coalition don’t car about eduction, only for the wealthy.
Keep em dumb & scared is their motto.
Sean Tisme
Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 6:42 pm | PERMALINK
Betting markets agree and have surged in the Coalitions favour.
———-
like last week
and the opinion polls contradicted them
I actually think that having the G20 in the middle of the election might not be a bad idea. Rudd could score quite a few points appearing with world leaders, showing off his rapport and influence. The 7th is a bit close though… maybe the 14th (yes, I know that was Gillard’s date but, spite aside, it is not a bad date to hold an election. Orthodox Jews will find a way to vote, i.e. postal or pre-poll, regardless of high holy days.)
The coalition were relying on opinion polling
now they are relying on betting markets
in reality the election will likely be what happen in 2010, Abbott lost the chance to govern
Rudd has ruled out September the 14th
I don’t have any objection to the 7th of September.
OK Nem he’s finished
Sean – if your definition of ‘surge’ is 3.10 to 3.20 (Centrebet) for an ALP win then yes, betting markets have surged.