The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.
The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.
The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.
The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.
Carey @2676
No. That just reinforces bad behaviour by mendicant states like Tasmania that refuse to utilise the resources available to them to create economic goeth, jobs and prosperity. As and Vic aren’t too far behind with their begging bowls out for taxpayer funded economic black holes.
Reinforce success and cull failures.
This section from Peter Brent’s most recent column bears repeating right about now:
[Three years ago the machine men found in new prime minister Julia Gillard someone completely simpatico with this strategy: use small words, look down the camera, nod and relate directly to Australians in their living rooms.
Be the sort of person it would be fun to have at a barbie. Talk about the footy. Don’t bore the punters with policy lest they think you have tickets on yourself.
And capitalise on the bounce in the polls by rushing to an early election. Back in 2010 the apparatchiks didn’t have to argue for that early poll because everyone was on the same page.
How could it go wrong?
It can go wrong because polls only register people’s reaction to a hypothetical scenario. If support is hollow, if it’s just a reaction to this week’s gimmick, then it will disappear by election day no matter when it is.
It’s wiser to build the authority, the circumstances that will maximise the chances of a win at the ballot box than to try to generate a boost in the polls today that you hope lasts until people vote.
This time the evidence suggests the NSW branch is out of the loop – on election timing at least. So they’ve turned to the media, through leak after leak to the Daily Telegraph telling us the poll would be held in early, then mid, then late August.
This week it’s going to be 7 September (the earliest possible date).
Presumably the idea is to create general expectations that force Kevin Rudd’s office to give in.]
Sounds like they’ve gotten their wish.
[I don’t have any objection to the 7th of September.]
Election ASAP Please
If you lose your 457 visa job shouldn’t you be buggering off back to Scotland?
Steve,
It is now $3.50 for Labor on Centrebet. Try and keep up mate
Need to wait for an election to be called to see the betting money start to flow.
Sean – my mistake. I quoted Sportsbet, which is currently 3.20, not too different from a few days ago. Maybe Centrebet did ‘surge’.
TP – you don’t think recent polls would have had any effect?
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 3m
The Qld Public Service rejected the pay offer in a ballot, and rejected it again in a government survey this week. Not members, but the QPS
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 3m
So now the NP attack the well being of our members, because they see their employees as an enemy and their union more so
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 3m
To the Qld LNP, politics isn’t people or governance – it’s about power. They are children throwing tantrums with the power of the state
————————-
Not a good look for Newman.
Abbott little stunt on education today only brings the LNP closer to the ALP & further blurs any policy distinction on that front. Ditto Labor & the PNG solution.
So far 0-0.
There is however one major issue that the LNP should be drawn out on & that is how they are going to achieve their so called budget miracle & at what cost. The longer they have to defend their no trust of treasury the more dodgy they look.
[Rudd has ruled out September the 14th]
His loss
Seventh day with no boats arriving in Oz waters, must be Abbott’s Operation Budgie Smuggle.
I wonder if newsltd/telegraph will repeat what they have been doing recently , just before newspoll and galaxy polls
Make up thier own poll , and claim that they polled 20,000 voters
and majority in that poll supported and trusted Abbott
ABC News reporting Rudd/Gillard have now had more budget deficits than the Hawke/Keating Government.
OUCH!
@Sean/2764
Probably a good thing, that must mean that Hockey will need a a bigger slash and burn.
Mh @2760
It’s not as if the Treasury has covered themselves in glory with their accurate forecasting and protection of sensitive Opposition information to add to their credibility.
Seventh day with no boats arriving in Oz waters, must be Abbott’s Operation Budgie Smuggle.
Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison must be praying for there to be a flotilla just over the horizon.
Sean
Go and read Cameron Cline’s comments
Most Liberals like Crank, Glen, G.P, Rummel, Mod Lib, Davidwh etc are willing to engage but Sean its time to move beyond shallow slogans and come up with real ideas.
No wonder ABC doing the budget deficits to try and cover for WA budget on the 8th.
Newman hasn’t got a budget,
NSW hasn’t got a budget,
Both liberal states.
Australian flag being burned in PNG with signs attacking the ALP.
Seems Labor are hated even overseas.
Well there was at least one boat earlier in the week.
lol mexican beemer
MB
Have you discovered that my day job is comedian
Evening all.
No surprises to see the coalition me-too on Gonski. They don’t want an election fought on education any more than Labor want an election fought on boats.
Wonder what they’ll do similarly with health?
Sean Tisme
“Australian flag being burned in PNG with signs attacking the ALP.
Seems Labor are hated even overseas.”
Really? Awesome! That will play well in the marginals.:)
[Australian flag being burned in PNG with signs attacking the ALP.
Seems Labor are hated even overseas.]
Why do you hate this country so much?
Ruawake @2762
Boat with 70 on board intercepted yesterday.
47 boats and +4000 illegal entrants in July – ALP policy at its best.
Silvio gets his sentence reduced to one year home detention. At least he’s finally guilty.
poroti
It is moot which MILFs are the more rooly trooly dangerous.
@Sean/2770
So they want to further raise concerns that PNG isn’t UN asylum convention friendly?
confessions
[No surprises to see the coalition me-too on Gonski. ]
After Tone’s selected audience “people’s forum” in Tassie and the roasting he got on education it was inevitable.
Crank – Are you a Treasury denier?
Sean Tisme
Weren’t you busy claiming last week that NO ONE would be sent to PNG under Labor (because of incompetence or whatever)?
What’s your new line now that the first planeload or two have arrived?:)
I see that the conservatives, who have been happy for WA to milk the Federation for decades, have suddenly discovered ‘mendicant’ states.
Butter wouldn’t melt in their mouf.
[I was nae here then but was the “Honest John” nickname acquired after the “Fistful of Dollars” election ads ?]
That was the Liberal ad for the Tax cuts the Liberal Government did not implement. Howard became Treasurer after that election (Dec 1977). He was a slimy little man not even liked by his many in own party.
I can’t recall when he was first dubbed “Honest John”, only that it was common when the Painters & Dockers RC was sitting. The non-appearance of those tax cuts – deeply resented – may have started it.
Pollies tell Porkies; many tell lies; but Howard, like Abbott, was a compulsive (?pathological) liar disliked even by his colleagues – and Prime Minister.
BTW, just listening to Britain’s documents from 1983, when USA & US thought there might be a WW3. I was actually in Moscow when this was happening. Fear was palpable; the streets eerie. After so many invasions since 1914 (inc in two world wars), when another power threatened the USSR, Russians took the threat very seriously indeed.
Perhaps Bowen can do more stuff to the budget by removing all aid in PNG.
Returning all facilities that are in PNG and return them to Australia and do on-shore processing?
[Well there was at least one boat earlier in the week.]
25k off Java. Read what I stated. 😛
CC
That was the Princess of Tasmania. It doesn’t count.
[How does every ALP member who ever ranted against the Howard government’s asylum policies look now]
Same as every Liberal member who bangs on about small government, low taxes and low spending as they spruik John Howard the highest taxing, highest spending government in Australia’s history.
[2751
Compact Crank
Carey @2676
No. That just reinforces bad behaviour by mendicant states like Tasmania]
Tasmania is a small economy in a much larger customs and monetary union, in which policy is framed around the dynamics of the larger economic zines, to the detriment of Tasmania. Tasmania had a highly export-oriented economy which has been seriously injured by the high exchange rate, which has been inflated by developments elsewhere in the union. It is not exaggerating things to argue that economies of Victoria and Tasmania have been suppressed by the effects of the mining boom.
Of course, the good thing about the union is that fiscal redistribution also occurs, so it is not all lose-lose from the point of view of non-mining economies.
Compact Crank
“47 boats and +4000 illegal entrants in July – ALP policy at its best.”
August arrivals: higher or lower than July? What do you think?
I see that the Greens are doing ‘Ich bin ein refugee’ and want to replicate the Berlin Airlift.
poroti:
Ch10 news showed Abbott saying he was on a ‘unity ticket’ with his opponent. But given this now means (for as much as we can take Abbott at his word) that he is really on a unity ticket with Julia Gillard. 🙂
MH @2782
Would you believe their forecasts?
[2762
ruawake
Seventh day with no boats arriving in Oz waters, must be Abbott’s Operation Budgie Smuggle.]
I think we’ve had three this week.
I see that the NT government has ALREADY done a Gonski deal with the Coalition.
A bit presumptuous at this point I reckon.;)
[What’s your new line now that the first planeload or two have arrived?]
It was 1 plane.. and certainly not a “load”, barely 30 people or half a boats worth.
Meanwhile 2000+ are sitting in Australia.
Can you tell me what happened to all those people brought to Australia from PNG to empty the detention centre?
Come by Boat to Australia under Labor? Get a Visa, Too Bloody Easy Mate!
@Sean/2797
Isn’t that what happens under Coalition Goverment with Temp Visa’s?
Crank@2794 – why not & who else, Lehman Brothers. 😀
Hilarious!
Katter’s Senate #1 candidate James Blndell describing PNG as “the suppository for the world’s homeless population.”
No idea what he’s talking about!!
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/bob-katter-names-james-blundell-among-his-senate-hopefuls-20130802-2r3wy.html