BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

Magnifying glasses required to separate the two parties, or to pick the difference from the 2010 election result.

The weekly BludgerTrack update erases the 0.5% edge the Coalition gained in the wake of last week’s Newspoll, and finds Labor the tiniest fraction more likely than the Coalition to win a majority of seats. Labor has made a net gain of two on the seat projection, Queensland again showing its sensitivity with a two-seat shift on the basis of a very small vote change and a second gain projected for Labor in Western Australia (though I’d be a bit careful with the smaller state results at the moment, polling at that level having become leaner recently). This has been counterbalanced by a one seat move to the Coalition in New South Wales, where the Labor score remains on the cusp of 25 and 26.

The primary and two-party vote results are all but identical to the weekend’s Galaxy poll, which is the weightiest of the new data points. Included as always are Morgan, which was unusually soft for Labor this week, and Essential, which retains its slight lean to the Coalition relative to the rest of the field but has perhaps been trending slightly to Labor over the past few weeks. The one very bad new poll for Labor, the weekend’s ReachTEL result showing Labor to lose three of its four Tasmanian seats, has been included in the state relativities calculation. While its inclusion has weakened Labor’s two-party vote projection in the state by nearly 3% in relative terms, the model is not persuaded that Lyons will be joining Bass and Braddon on the casualty list.

The trendlines on the sidebar now paint a picture of monotonous consistency since the Rudd restoration, the so-called “sugar hit” having endured long enough to offer the Coalition real cause for alarm. However, very close observation of the primary votes provides some indication of movement beneath the surface. A poll aggregator like BludgerTrack presumes to have a margin of error of a bit over 1%, and while this is founded on dubious assumptions, it at least gives a rough pointer to the size of movement that should and shouldn’t interest us. One move outside the range concerns the Greens, who opened their account under Rudd at around 9%, sagged nearly a full point by the time of the asylum seeker policy announcement (remembering the margin of error diminishes the further a result gets from 50%), and have now recovered back to the starting point.

The other noteworthy change involves the “others” vote, which started the year at around 10%, increased to 12.5% as Labor bled primary vote support in the last six months under Julia Gillard, snapped back to around 9% when Rudd returned, and has trended downwards over the past four weeks to its present 7.5%. Part of that may have been absorbed by the Coalition in a general trend resulting from the media losing interest in some of the minor players, but it seems intuitively likely that a greater share comes from Labor leaners who have been won over after initial hesitancy by Rudd’s political initiatives. There may have been some deflation in the Rudd honeymoon balloon going on concurrently, with the Coalition primary vote at least holding level and perhaps rising slightly, but Rudd’s evident political successes have at the very least cancelled it out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,191 comments on “BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0”

Comments Page 57 of 64
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  1. [I see that the NT government has ALREADY done a Gonski deal with the Coalition.]

    I thought the NT signed up just after the leadership change??

  2. [I see that the NT government has ALREADY done a Gonski deal with the Coalition]

    They wasted thousands of taxpayers dollars sending every household a letter explaining they couldn’t support Gonski because 41% of schools would have their funding reduced. The fine print of course told us that not 1 school would have their funding reduced. Lies and waste, you’d never have imagined it.

  4. 2675
    Carey Moore
    Posted Friday, August 2, 2013 at 5:12 pm | PERMALINK
    CAREY U BE THE JUDGE

    I don’t need to be. It’s not me deciding Wilkie’s fate.

    I concede that you know more about Tasmania than I do, however I prefer to go by the available psephological evidence (which, as well as being Tasmanian, KB is good at) rather than just pro-Labor “gut” and rhetoric.

    ==========================================

    I know more about Tasmanian than you do too, assuming you don’t live here, and all my Denison contacts are strongly behind Wilkie. In fact, you could call it the Greenest State in the Land of the Free. I assume someone will get the reference.

  5. Boerwar@2784


    I see that the conservatives, who have been happy for WA to milk the Federation for decades, have suddenly discovered ‘mendicant’ states.

    Butter wouldn’t melt in their mouf.

    ‘Cull them’ leaves little room for misunderstanding.

    But the business cycle turns and no one knows who will be next.

    cc fails to understand the basis of our ‘Commonwealth’.

    Must not be in the IPA handbook.

  7. Katter “And we will use that balance of power(in the Senate) with ruthless brutality,”

    What the fark does that mean? We all have to ware stupid big hats indoors?

  9. anyone bother to look up to see who owns the containers and who the unions are upset with re the ferry,

    Briefly have you ever had a look at the cost s we are charged by Melbourne Ports for pulling along side their docks

    google it you will be shocked

    ——————————————–

    yes we are big exporters and people like compact crank one day WA will rely on us for much of it s food

    with the wa desert like areas not much opportunity except down the Margaret river area and with GLobal warming who knows,\and when you run out of minerals we will still have our wild river s full of fish and field full of food what will have,

    I saw your nasty little remark,, ok sell us off the NZ
    and u in wa can beg for food in about 2o years or so

    daily service is a must for , fruit at the markets ect, we also export flowers.

    and many dairy products

  10. [What the fark does that mean?]

    Guided democracy.

    Which should suit Abbott, given he’s expressed admiration for the concept in the past.

  11. [ABC News reporting Rudd/Gillard have now had more budget deficits than the Hawke/Keating Government.]

    investing in the country costs- any lardarse can pennypinch and do nothing

  12. I thought we won the new s tonight bowen came across very well

    and all abbott did was hang around school kids it looked so juvenile

  14. Tony Abbott has decided to support the Education reforms. So when an angry Christopher Pyne, red in the face (almost purple) was denouncing the reforms for cutting support for schools, he was mistaken. Or perhaps he was being economical with the truth? Or was it a bald-faced lie?

  15. I know more about Tasmanian than you do too, assuming you don’t live here, and all my Denison contacts are strongly behind Wilkie. In fact, you could call it the Greenest State in the Land of the Free. I assume someone will get the reference.
    =====================================================

    YES BECAUSE YOU ARE A GREEN I REMEMBER YOU FROM THE LAST ELECTIon
    and the green federally love the liberals.

    I AM HOPING EVERY GREEN LOSES THEIR SEAT IN CLUDING WILKIE

    a blow In from the mainland.

  17. [So when an angry Christopher Pyne, red in the face (almost purple) was denouncing the reforms for cutting support for schools, he was mistaken. Or perhaps he was being economical with the truth? Or was it a bald-faced lie?]

    Perhaps Abbott decided to announce his me-too education unity ticket without consulting his colleagues beforehand? It wouldn’t be the first time.

  18. I would take no notice of the PNG protest
    every country has protests

    and when on camera it looks bigger than it is

    like the greens little protest here the other day re PNG just hand full, I realy see the greens influence in this state slowing dying off like the greens hopefully

    and al so the idea is to stop the boats

    the so called refugees did not look happy at landing in PNG

    good I say and I hope that’s seen on tv in indonesia

  19. Assange to have Senate BOP but because he is unable to sit because he is holed up in London, will lose his seat:

    Who gets Assange’s possie in that scenario?

  20. The ASADA interim report into Essendon is complete. It has been received by the AFL General Counsel, whatever that means. He gave no details and it is soon to be presented to Essendon and the AFL commission.

  23. Roxanne funny what us say about wilkie when i hear and see the opp,
    I hope I am correct I want a person in a party to represent me and my extended family an independent can do very little unless it is a hung parliament,

    and wilkie I was not happy with his performance in the hung parliament in stead of poker machines he could sort some big ticket items for the whole state.

    I was not impressed who cares about poker machines and

    one of the companies that has them does so much for tourism in this state,
    no not impressed at all

  26. Boerwar:

    I was under the impression Assange himself isn’t actually running for a Senate seat, but is lending his name to the Wikileaks party so other candidates may contest the election under that party’s name.

  27. Allah be praised. Because of Eid, and the decision by Aquino to declare it a national holiday, we are having a long weekend in a resort twixt jungle and sea. Canardly wait.

  29. confessions

    Many moons ago I was listening to the Party Apparatchik who was saying that they would be fielding a full team with Assange No 1.

    The apparatchik was angling towards the view that a vote for Assange would not be wasted because No 2, which, if I recall correctly, was said apparatchik, would get Assange’s seat should Assange be otherwise occupied.

  33. vic

    [“Their report consists of more than 400 pages referencing over 13,000 supporting documents, including transcripts of interviews conducted to date with more than 130 witnesses.]

  35. Now that Abbott has flip flopped and says he will support Gonski, what odds that he will again flip and say he supports the Fibre To The Premises NBN?

    Abbott’s Gonski backflip seems to have been done without consulting his colleagues, especially Pyne. This has happened a few times now, with three star admirals and tent city for Nauru. Hockey must have thrown his hands up in horror when he heard the news.

    This sort of behaviour can only be raising the level of antagonism towards Abbott from those shadow ministers excluded from his inner circle. Any sort of backflip on the NBN would see mighty clouds of steam coming out of Turnbull’s ears.

  38. victoria:

    I have no appreciation of the length of these things, so don’t want to pass judgement, just relaying what has been reported.

    I guess we’ll know soon enough.

  42. I don’t believe that Kevin Rudd is a real cricket fan. He’s faking it, like so much else. I just thought I’d throw that in.

  47. victoria:

    The ASADA stuff has also been reported extensively in WA. I’ve just disengaged from footy over the last couple of years so haven’t been paying much attention to it.

  48. [I thought we won the new s tonight bowen came across very well ]

    Are you and Meguire Bob family by any chance?

    Today was a terrible day for… wake up and smell the reality!

  50. dwh
    That is the eight o’clock gremlins. Someone had a theory that it was when Bludger was being backed up for posterity in the cloud.
    I don’t know. But at eight in the morning and eight in the evening crap happens.
    I imagine that it is going to be particularly satisfying at around eight o’clock on election night…if the system hasn’t already clogged already, election nights tending in that direction.

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