Galaxy: 50-50

Contrary to talk of stalled momentum for Kevin Rudd after a relatively weak Newspoll, a new Galaxy poll has Labor’s primary vote with a four in front and a dead heat on two-party preferred.

GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll in tomorrow’s News Limited tabloids has two-party preferred at 50-50, from primary votes of 40% for Labor and 44% for the Coalition. This compares with a 51-49 lead for the Coalition at the last such poll four weeks ago, with Labor up two on the primary vote and the Coalition steady. More to follow.

UPDATE: James J fills the blanks: “Greens Primary for this poll is 9. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in handling the issue of asylum seekers? Rudd Labor 40, Abbott Coalition 38. Who do you think will be better, Kevin Rudd and the Labor Party or Tony Abbott and the Coalition, in tackling climate change? Rudd Labor 45, Abbott Coalition 31 Which of the two party leaders do you believe has the best vision for the future? Rudd 46, Abbott 36. July 23-25. 1015 sample.

We also have the Launceston Examiner reporting ReachTEL polls of 600 respondents in each of Bass, Braddon and Lyons show the Liberals continuing to lead in all three, although details provided in the article are sketchy.

UPDATE 2: Kevin Bonham has kindly passed on results of the ReachTEL poll of Bass, Braddon and Lyons. The polls were conducted on Thursday from respective sample sizes are 626, 659 and 617, for margins of error of around 4%. The results unusually feature personal ratings for both the Labor incumbents and Liberal candidates, which show a) implausibly high recognition ratings for all concerned (only 1.5% of Braddon respondents had never heard of their Liberal candidate, former state MP Brett Whiteley), b) surprisingly weak results for the incumbents, and c) remarkable uniformity from electorate to the next.

Bass (Labor 6.7%): Geoff Lyons (Labor) 34.7%, Andrew Nikolic (Liberal) 48.9%, Greens 9.4%. Two party preferred: 54.0%-46.0% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 50.6%, Abbott 49.4%. Geoff Lyons: 25.6%-39.8%-30.3% (favourable-neutral-unfavourable). Andrew Nikolic: 43.3%-24.0%-24.6%.

Braddon (Labor 7.5%): Sid Sidebottom (Labor) 34.6%, Brett Whiteley (Liberal) 51.3%, Greens 7.4%. Two party preferred: 56.8%-43.2% to Liberal. Preferred PM: Rudd 51.2%, Abbott 48.8%. Sid Sidebottom: 27.4%-37.8%-33.1%. Brett Whiteley: 42.7%-30.5%-25.3%.

Lyons (Labor 12.3%): Dick Adams (Labor) 32.3%, Eric Hutchison (Liberal) 46.8%, Greens 10.2%. Two party preferred: 54.4%-45.6% to Liberal. Rudd 50.7%, Abbott 49.3%. Dick Adams: 26.8%-34.3%-35.7%. Eric Hutchison: 36.8%-29.3%-18.2%.

UPDATE 3: More numbers from last night’s Galaxy poll. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 51-34, but Malcolm Turnbull holds a 46-38 lead over Rudd.

UPDATE 4: Essential Research has the Coalition down a point for the second week in a row to 44%, Labor steady on 39% and the Greens up two to 9%. After shifting a point in Labor’s favour on the basis of little change in the published primary votes last week, two-party preferred remains at 51-49 despite more substantial change this week, suggesting the result has moved from the cusp of 52-48 to the cusp of 50-50. The poll finds 61% approval for the government’s new asylum seekers policy against 28% disapproval and concurs with Galaxy in having the two parties almost equal as best party to handle the issue, with Labor on 25% (up eight on mid-June), the Coalition on 26% (down 12) and the Greens on 6% (down one). The issue is rated the most important election issue by 7%, one of the most by 28%, quite important by 35%, not very important by 16% and not at all important by 8%. Malcolm Turnbull is rated best person to lead the Liberal Party by 37% against 17% for Tony Abbott and 10% for Joe Hockey, and there are further questions on workplace productivity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,216 comments on “Galaxy: 50-50”

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  1. ruawake

    Posted Monday, July 29, 2013 at 3:51 pm | Permalink

    Has the Fiji foreign affairs guy let the cat out of the bag about another 2 resettlement countries? Solomons and Vanuatu.

    It was mentioned by the Solomon Island President when interviewed when Rudd visited a couple weeks ago.

  2. … by all the Compassionate People who reckon that a bit of bastardry in PNG will be more effective in stopping drowings than a few drownings will.

  3. Jackol …

    If you liked the peregrinations of “fulsome” go check out the history of the word “nice”. It’s not that … err … nice. 😉

  4. Lordy, lordy. The Solomon Islands State has only just been cobbled back together with blue tack, chewing gum and a bit of clag. It is already over-populated. Not a good idea.

    Fiji is no longer even a democracy. It is a race-based autarchy. Again, over-populated. Prospects for settlement of thousands: zilch.

    Crazy, crazy stuff.

  5. jv,

    from the same report u liked 2… executive summary…
    [This research reveals a number of common themes, chief among them being that asylum seekers generally have limited options available to them, and choices are made within a very narrow field of possibilities. Their choices and their journeys are often strongly influenced by the people smugglers, or agents, they engage to assist them.

    Where asylum seekers are able to exercise choice in determining their destination country, factors such as the presence of social networks, historical ties between the countries of origin and destination, and the knowledge or belief that a certain country is democratic, where human rights and the rule of law are likely to be respected, are highly influential.

    Policies and processes relating to the asylum procedure in destination countries are generally not well known and therefore not highly significant in influencing choice of destination. This represents a major challenge for governments which are attempting to curb flows of asylum seekers through changes to asylum policy.]

  6. [Fiji is no longer even a democracy]

    The Fiji guy was complaining that whities were going to over-run the Melanesian South Pacific.

  7. BW

    [… by all the Compassionate People who reckon that a bit of bastardry in PNG will be more effective in stopping drowings than a few drownings will.]

    Bastardry will always be greater under an ALP government … 😉

    Let’s hope the voters the ALP needs to win really believe that, because that’s the kind of government that can really stop the Liberals from being bas … oh wait … never mind.

  8. @_Biancah: Essential: While majority approved of Labor’s PNG plan “those most likely to disapprove were respondents with university degrees”.

  9. [Bastardry will always be greater under an ALP government]

    Its less expected so more shocking, whereas SOP for the libs.

  10. PeeBee

    Well if you don’t believe the expert reports and individual accounts of the situation in Indonesia for displaced people, I cannot help you. I have done enough research for people today. It’s not as if it is hard to find.

    There seems to be a move to embrace rumour, spin and prejudice in the party since the government’s “Fc*k off, we’re full!” policy; and a move away from facts and expert analysis, led by one B Carr.

  11. The Nobel Laureate Professor Joseph Stiglitz when visiting Australia in 2010 said it was “lucky to have probably the best designed stimulus package of any of the countries, advanced industrial countries, both in size and in design, timing and how it was spent, and I think it served Australia well.” (I interviewed Stiglitz on that trip to Australia and he said he was “widely impressed with the state of economic and social policy” and had taken a special interest in Indigenous labour market policy “where most work clearly needs to be done in the long term”.)

  12. Some departments in some jurisdictions are very keen on Kiwi solutions involving efficiencies based on lack of resources which I can only surmise might involve removal of resources in the near future

  13. 2162
    Fran Barlow
    [Bastardry will always be greater under an ALP government … ]

    Hardly. Though more justified, certainly. 😉

  14. Professor Raja Junankar at UNSW, Australian avoided the contraction and mass unemployment that has plagued other advanced industrial economies since the 2008 crash.

    According to Junankar, when you compare Australia with other advanced industrialised economies like the US, UK, and both strong and weak economies in Europe (e.g. from Germany to the crisis-ridden economies in the south next to the Mediterranean), we score better in terms of GDP, employment, inflation, current account, budget deficits and debt ratios.

    As Junankar says: “Even the ‘wunderkind’ Germany took three years before its GDP returned to the pre-2008 levels…. All other countries had higher unemployment rates than Australia in the post-2008 period.”

    Junankar notes praise for Australia in official international policy circles including the OECD, which says, “With 21 years of uninterrupted growth Australia stands out among OECD countries.”

    What does Abbott rabbit on about when talking Aust economy?

    Just keeps proving he is an economic minnow

  15. jv @ 2167

    That about sums up the situation imo.

    Cognitive dissonance is all the rage.

    As for Bob Carr, the less said the better.

  16. [I suppose an Australian population of 50 million will be on the agenda soon. Is this sustainable?]

    I think rather than focusing on what we think the targets/limits should be, our population policies should be based on pulling our heads out of the sand and accepting that the human population is growing exponentially and preparing for it through infrastructure investment, community planning changes and resource production/management.

  17. Should I be annoyed when people look at a single variable, chase down some false equivalences, and then claim sort of spurious merit for a policy setting?

    Why would you compare Australia to economies that had very much higher levels of debt than did Australia when the GFC treatment started?

    Why would you compare the Australia with countries that had financial institutions and practices that were basically out of control?

    Why would you compare Australia to economies that did not participate in a resource boom gratis swags of resources and proximitey to China?

    Why would you compare Australia with countries that did not have a large swag of super savings sitting in the wings?

    There were a lot of lemons ready to go sour when the GFC hit. Australia was an orange. IMHO, any policy arguments that do not take that into account are a bit suss.

  18. “Enormity” is another word that does not necessarily mean what one might think.

    The horse has rather bolted and well over the horizon for “nice”. “Fulsome” and “enormity” are probably lost causes too.

  19. “@lyndalcurtis: DIAC news release says aircraft are taking “tents, marquees, polls, frames ..” to Manus. Are we sending polls offshore?”

  20. “Australia’s debt position is better than that of some other countries – not because we’ve done better, but because we started better.”

    Not true. If it were, then other nations with no debt and strong budgets surpluses should have done well through the GFC. And nations deeply in debt and deficit would have done poorly. There is no such correlation.

    Several countries which emerged from the GFC in good shape went in with huge debts at the outset. These include Israel, Switzerland and Singapore.

    In contrast, Spain, Finland, Iceland and Chile all had modest debt and budget surpluses in 2008 yet suffered severe reversals.

  21. CM

    ‘I think rather than focusing on what we think the targets/limits should be, our population policies should be based on pulling our heads out of the sand and accepting that the human population is growing exponentially and preparing for it through infrastructure investment, community planning changes and resource production/management.’

    Yep. Australia has passed peak fresh water. All that screaming you can hear in the background is more and more users fighting over what is left. Australia passed peak soils some time ago. Australia’s ocean fisheries are at about peak fisheries now – krill aside. Australia’s peak biodiversity was around 200 years ago. It has been downhill ever since.

    OTOH, Australia’s peak CO2 emissions have yet to be reached. We have yet to reach peak feral animals and peak weeds. We have yet to reach peak soil salinization and water salinization because we keep increasing both.

    You sort of get the picture. The good peaks have gone and the bad peaks are ramping up.

    Doubling up on this sort of unsustainability by doubling up on our population is not just dumb. It is insane.

  22. 2154
    Compact Crank
    [ @2116 I know Gos. Good bloke and would make a good local member.]

    A generous endorsement, given you are not exactly fond of Labor generally.

    Appreciate your honesty and fairness.

  23. [2123

    What we are doing to asylum seekers is simply vindictive, and like so many pitiless policies, it says more about our own unsettled identities than the needs of asylum seekers.

    People who are at risk of drowning need our help. People who perceive that risk as lesser than the fate they are fleeing really need our help. Until we acknowledge that we can never fully feel at home here and find ways to resolve the paradox at the heart of our national identity, we will go on blaming, demonising, even punishing vulnerable, traumatised people who turn to us for asylum. The PNG deal is as great a wrong as this nation has perpetrated and will only add to our unsettled feelings.]

    This is all rubbish. Public opposition to the disorderly flow of would-be settlers is not about punishing the vulnerable or the content of our national identity. It is about equality of opportunity and, at the end of the day, about money and taxes.

    The budget is already chronically in the red and is going to stay that way unless taxes are increased. As it is, we cannot fund our existing social spending ambitions – public education spending reforms and the disability insurance program being just the most recent examples. For mine, those calling for the acceptance of an uncapped flow of refugees express no more than a desire to clear their conscience at the expense of all other taxpayers and other potential applicants for a humanitarian place.

    Perhaps the solution lies in extending the existing private sponsorship program

    This may open the way for a wider role in the private provision of funding and re-settlement services for the vulnerable.

  24. ruawake,

    The Stable Population Party might be the party for u if that is your concern:

    Here is what they have 2 say about –
    Refugee boats: A plane distraction from big Australia
    [Although some politicians and media commentators would have you believe otherwise, ‘big Australia’ population growth is not about boats or refugees. It really boils down to planes.]

    [The issues of asylum seekers arriving by boat and population growth are not, and should not, be confused for political purposes. But unfortunately, certain politicians are cynically channelling peoples’ concerns over large scale population growth and subsequent erosion of Australia’s quality of life, and directing it at a relatively small group of people who arrive on boats.

    The population issue is not about boats. The population issue is really about an excess of permanent immigrants over permanent emigrants (around 200,000 per annum) combined with an excess of births over deaths (around 150,000 per annum).]

  25. Some usages, Jackol, are ugly but so well-established that one finds oneself using them.

    I stay clear of words like b***h (for female humans but not dogs) and c**t. Yet in my garden at Epping we used to have a weed the botanical name of which was tradescantia fluminensis but the common name of which was Wandering Jew. I grew up using this name for the plant and it wasn’t until I was about 14 that I began wondering if continuing to use this name wasn’t trading on a nasty ethnic stereotype. I looked up the correct name and was determined to use that instead.

    Yet speaking of tradescantia fluminensis just makes people’s eyes glaze over, and when you explain what it is, they often imagine you are pretending your some sort of expert — which in gardening I have never been. So now when I say it, I use the scare (“air”) quotes.

  26. It would be funny, if it weren’t so sad.

    All the cccupants on the lifeboat are arguing about who is going to get onto the lifeboat and how they are going to get onto the lifeboat, when the lifeboat is already leaking and the leaks are getting get worse.

    There is no further shore. Our choices are bounded.

  27. The Morgan Multi Mode results from last week are out, and the ALP still leads the Coalition 52% to 48% 2PP.

    This is down a bit from last week, with the ALP slipping back to below 40% primary, but this has mainly gone back to The Greens, it would seem.

  28. Fran

    I have similar difficulties with ‘Jewfish’ (big-nosed) and ‘Niggers’ (blackish) – both prized catches. ‘Luderick’ is available for the latter, but I am unaware of an alternative name for ‘Jewies’.

    OTHO, there are ‘witfis’ aka Whitefish but they aren’t, as far as I know, called Honkeyfish.

  29. Fran Barlow

    Easier to use another common name – Purple Heart.

    Decades ago I saw a sign outside a nursery in south-east Qld – “indigenous young person trees”, clearly making a correctness joke of the name ‘blackboys’. I use ‘grass tree’ rather than the botanical name Xanthorrhoea, which is ridiculous.

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