Four new poll results have been added for the BludgerTrack aggregate this week, with Newspoll handing Labor a relatively weak result and ReachTEL, Essential Research and Morgan recording little change. The force of Newspoll has pulled the two-party preferred total 0.4% in the direction of the Coalition, which nets it a handy three seats on the national projection. The high yield is testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s projected gain of six seats from last week has been halved by a 1.8% shift on the two-party vote. Some soft polling for Labor in Tasmania has also brought them down a peg in that state, but this is cancelled out by a gain in New South Wales, where the model continues to have them on the cusp of 25 and 26. The projected total still leaves us in hung parliament territory, but with the Coalition able to govern with help from Bob Katter.
Newspoll especially has been keenly scrutinised for the effect of Friday’s asylum seeker policy announcement, but this would seem a fraught endeavour at this stage. The asylum seeker issue played badly for the government throughout last week up until Kevin Rudd’s move to seize the initiative on Friday evening, news of which would have taken a while to filter through. Nonetheless, it’s interesting to note the latest polls are solidly better for the Greens than a particularly weak batch last week, and that Labor’s primary vote is down correspondingly. This of course will mostly come out in the wash on preferences, but a refugee backlash could nonetheless be of considerable consequence in the Senate.
Usually the six Senators returned by a state at a normal half-Senate election split evenly between the parties of the left and right, but Labor’s polling under Julia Gillard was bad enough to allow for the possibility of four right, two left results in as many as three states (or perhaps four, depending on what view you take of Nick Xenophon). Now it appears that Senate battles will proceed along more familiar lines, with Labor comfortably winning two seats and fighting it out with the lead Greens candidate for a third. Labor’s starting position in such contests is its surplus vote above 28.6%, which can generally be expected to leave them in about the 7% to 10% range where the Greens vote is fluctuating at present. So while Labor’s western Sydney MPs might have cause to cheer the Prime Minister’s new policy direction, its number three Senate candidates (including incumbents Ursula Stephens in New South Wales, Mark Furner in Queensland and Lin Thorp in Tasmania) will feel less pleased.
BludgerTrack arrives with some new toys this week, starting with a new set of graphs on the sidebar which plot the polling over the four weeks since the restoration. These look a bit threadbare at present, but they will have a story to tell soon enough. The Gillard era model remains preserved for posterity at the bottom. In between is another new feature, which projects the likelihood of seat outcomes under the present BludgerTrack results. This is done by simulating 100,000 election results from the ALP seat win probabilities I have been using to determine the seat projection totals and observing the frequency of each result. The chances of majority government are currently put at 42.8%, which increases to 50.4% if you take the view that Labor will win Melbourne from Adam Bandt. Labor’s chances of holding on with the support of whoever ends up representing Denison and Melbourne are put at 28.7%.
BW
[I see that the the Bludger Compassion Police are out and about.]
Compassion Police will beat rancorous ar*eholes any day.
http://newmatilda.com/2013/07/24/everyone-was-way-over-their-heads
PB,
Nice cliched thinking there. It’s become a mantra hasn’t it.
My point is and you example it perfectly, that our political processes have delivered us an insanity of intransigence on what is really a minor problem.
AS to Australia are about 0.5% of the world’s problem. We do like our little mole hills don’t we?
So we’ll spend millions of dollars, shunt people around like cattle, further beggar our neighbours by exporting our problems to places unprepared and ill equipped, and then wring our collective hands and say the other political side is the problem.
I’m over the whole meaningless bullshit of this AS debate.
Someone get back to me when they have a solution that is not cloked in electioneering, political partisanship and does not incorporate the rush to being the best ever bastards.
Depressing to hear a discussion between Bob Maumill last night on 6PR and some punter referring to people smugglers’ ‘business models’ would have to change as they now have ‘surplus stock’ to get rid of quickly – with reference to real live people.
Meanwhile, best humour of the day to the thought that the word “Ruddock”, “Vanstone” and “Howard” can be in used in the same sentence as “expert”.
I would have thought “walking dead”, “never was” and “has been” would be more appropriate.
Boerwar
[Those Greens: always playing the Compassion Card.]
Calling GG a Green is really a low blow 😉
Greensborough,
So much hand wringing and tut tutting about the state of the ALP 😉
Sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:05 am | Permalink
Sean, the majority of people sent to Nauru during Howard’s time landed up in Australia which is the direct opposite of what the PNG policy is.
Not correct, less than 40% were granted resettlement visas for Australia
—————————————————
Yet again you are peddling incorrect information.
Now starting from your claim that the boats stopped.
Between 2001 and February 2008 a total of 1637 people had been detained in the Nauru and Manus facilities. Of these, 1153 (70 per cent) were ultimately resettled in Australia or other countries. Of those who were resettled 705 (around 61 per cent) were resettled in Australia.
Now remember there were no boats according to you.
1637 asylum seekers just magically appeared
This information is brought to you by the Aust Parliamentary Library – Boat arrivals in Australia since 1976
The policy issues with allowing the MSM unfettered access to asylum seeker jails are that:
(a) The asylum seekers are prepared to lie like politicians.
(b) The MSM that gets to the camps is generally compromised by the POVs of the journalists, who is paying them, and the need for the sensational over the normal.
(c) Asylum seeker advocates are also prepared to lie like politicians – at the very least to the extent that they are prepared to game the truth.
(d) Everyone is intent on gaming the MSM.
(e) Locals (as at Christmas Island) are prepared to play party-political games with the MSM when vox popped by the MSM. In other words, their ‘truth’ has been corrupted by their choice of rotten apple.
(f) Local politicians are also intent on gaming the situation for their personal political power. This has already happened on Nauru, PNG and Indonesia. Who can condemn them? They are probably just copying RuddAbbott’s willingness to do what it takes to gain political power.
The only people who are likely to be telling the truth in all this are the whistleblowers. They may well have suffered emotional and psychological trauma from what they have witnessed. Their careers are compromised. They have inside knowledge. They know they are in with a high chance of being bastardized by one or the other rotten apple camps. (At times they might be quite insane of course – suffering from culture shock and the like – and they do need to be sifted through the sanity test.)
Nevertheless, I look forward to the time when the Queen’s Birthday Honour’s list includes people who get a gong for whistleblowing. They are the true moral heroes of our age.
still find it amazing that australians feel responsible for people drowning off the coast of Java. ABC reporter in Indonesia saying about a kilometre away from where he was standing.
That says something
guytuar posted=========================================================
I find that logic hard to get my head around,
so if people have the flu or an epidemic are close by
in a neighbouring country
we don’t try to stop it, that’s like saying we give No food aid to poor countries, or don’t help others in situations, we live a closed life and not caring about anyone, taking risks its this country they are tyring to get to, so we have in all conscious try to stop the deaths,
people are told that they will have a better life if the come to aus, they are told that by criminals, should we protect the criminal element in this situation
.
over to you
Sean – The Liberal Party agreed in 2008 to dismantle the Pacific Solution.
It was a bi-partisan agreement.
[So we’ll spend millions of dollars..]
For those who value economics…it’s billions
http://ts3.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.4950814163993622&pid=15.1
accomadtion like this would be a great tweet, some young people have no idea
also the un insulated huts in the lakes district of Tasmania is another example,
people after the war where so happy to escape they would of gone any where.
The Compassion Card: the Joker in the Greens Party Political Pack.
I have yet to see a single Greens come clean on this being worth a few per cent of the vote and hence of the BOP.
Just say it guys. After all you are the one and only true Compassion Cops.
Says something that compassion by government on behalf of the people is now seen as something to be ridiculed by supporters of the government. Probably an inevitable consequence in our voting system with two dud big parties competing to be the most cruel to displaced and vulnerable human beings.
bw
Good defence of DIAC you are doing.
It does not stand up to scrutiny. That is the reality.
The only blame attaching to Labor is going on Departmental Advice instead of doing reform. Starting at the top by getting rid of Howard appointments.
Now chickens coming home to roost
My conservative dog-walking companion is very impressed with Tony Burke.
That comes as no surprise. After all, he was an incredibly effective environment minister, resolving the century-old Murray Darling dispute, bringing peace between seemingly intractable opponents in the battle over Tasmanian forests, and giving us huge marine parks to safeguard our fish stocks for the future (if the Coalition doesn’t unturn all the good work).
boerwar
You need to get over yourself – you are boring in the extreme.
Put your huge ego in your back pocket and go take a walk or something. You are in need of fresh air.
B WAR
your logic is also hard to understand,
how many children drowned this morning .
to young to make a decision about their future, now they have no future, ( that is if children where amoung the missing} how many boats have left ind, and never ever heard of again that we know nothing about.
GG, I see you are into put downs rather than think through what your motherhood statement really mean. I not sure how your caring attitude will stop drowning a at sea, but I would be interested to know your solution.
And if we think Oz has problems with AS, think of little Malta which, according to the West newspaper today, has to try to cope with 17,000 or so refugees from North Africa over the decade with its own population being 400,000.
It is estimated – according to the article – that this would be the equivalent of the UK taking on 2 and a half million extra.
The Maltese, like us, are caught between their own sense of responsibility but at the same time, an inability to cope with an endless stream.
We are not alone by any means – not that this cuts much ice with Joe Voter here.
Boerwar,
U do like 2 stereotype, don’t u….
bw
The Compassion Card. A term I would expect to hear from a GOP Tea Party supporter. Mr Bolt et al.
Just like they use the term The Race Card. The Gender Card.
Argue the merits. Not denigrate others.
Boerwar
[The asylum seekers are prepared to lie like politicians.]
Straight away, at point 1, this doesn’t compute. The ones in the gaols are the boat arrivals, of whom 94% are found to be genuine refugees under the UN test. Where is the need to lie?
If any group should be distrusted, it is those arriving by air on forged papers, but who are, tellingly, allowed to live here in the community while assessed, with only 20-30% found to be genuine.
This tells you it is a policy based in racism as Commissioner Pillay has said.
TT
He is very impressive and well modulated in the way he replies to questions. You get the impression he is really on top of his brief.
[Of these, 1153 (70 per cent) were ultimately resettled in Australia or other countries. Of those who were resettled 705 (around 61 per cent) were resettled in Australia.]
You aren’t the sharpest tool in the shed around your parts are you AA?
Between 2001 and February 2008 a total of 1637 people had been detained in the Nauru and Manus facilities.
OF *THOSE* resettled 705 went to Australia. 705/1637 * 100 = 43% of Pacific Solution Boat arrivals got resettlement in Australia
Please head back to Grade 2 and finish your maths classes this time.
Pegasus,
I don’t think the Greens can be too smug either. They have shown themselves incapable of anything but rhetorical claptrap throughout the whole sorry saga.
They have had the opportunity to shape the outcome as a minority Party in our Parliamentary system should. However, they’ve chosen to stick with their extremist positions rather than act responsibly. Clearly the Greens would prefer 100% of nothing when they could achieve 70% of something.
That is my condemnation of the Greens.
My criticism of the current AS situation is not just restricted to the Government or the Opposition. But it extends to the Greens, the enablers, and the Media. It’s a collective political fail for the people of Australia.
Abbott staffer to plead guilty to offence http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-staffer-to-plead-guilty-to-offence-20130724-2qibd.html …
the link wont work for me
If Paul Murray, Liberal party fan in WA, is anything to go by, the conservatives have chucked in the towel in regard to the “Rudd Solution”.
His offering from his soap box in the West today whinges that “Rudd has lost his moral compass”!
I could not believe my eyes that this is all this Labor-hater had left as an argument.
He rarely, if ever, of course has anything negative to say about Abbott’s “moral compass” with his tow the boats/send the boats back stuff.
Rudd says Kelly will be Defence Minister if he wins the election and is talking about being in no hurry to call an election.
More info – Wikipedia – Dictionary.com – Answers.com – Merriam-Webster
Sep 16, 2011 – A simple definition for compassion would be “to feel passion with someone” or to “enter sympathetically into one’s sorrow and pain.” It can also be …
================================================================
boerwar
the meaning of compassion has many faces.
this one is empathy at the plight of people leaving their home land, and wanting a better life. this time it could be seen as, explaining to them that finding that better life is a process that takes time, do they think its worth waitng for, example Iran, seems stable enough one may not like the gov, but that’s not enough to drag your children else where to lose their life.
=======================================
other countries afganstan ext, yes worse off can understand, but then again explain going to a new country with no skills, is something you apply for and wait,
now that’s another form of compassion
how can being comappsion have the face of .
well you may drown looking for your dream
don’t think so.
that’s why guytuar I cannot get my head around your post
More info – Wikipedia – Dictionary.com – Answers.com – Merriam-Webster
Sep 16, 2011 – A simple definition for compassion would be “to feel passion with someone” or to “enter sympathetically into one’s sorrow and pain.” It can also be …
================================================================
boerwar
the meaning of compassion has many faces.
this one is empathy at the plight of people leaving their home land, and wanting a better life. this time it could be seen as, explaining to them that finding that better life is a process that takes time, do they think its worth waitng for, example Iran, seems stable enough one may not like the gov, but that’s not enough to drag your children else where to lose their life.
=======================================
other countries afganstan ext, yes worse off can understand, but then again explain going to a new country with no skills, is something you apply for and wait,
now that’s another form of compassion
how can being comappsion have the face of .
well you may drown looking for your dream
don’t think so.
that’s why guytuar I cannot get my head around your post
GG,
Were or are u a member of Labor for Refugees?
Sean Tisme
Posted Wednesday, July 24, 2013 at 10:48 am | Permalink
Of these, 1153 (70 per cent) were ultimately resettled in Australia or other countries. Of those who were resettled 705 (around 61 per cent) were resettled in Australia.
You aren’t the sharpest tool in the shed around your parts are you AA?
Between 2001 and February 2008 a total of 1637 people had been detained in the Nauru and Manus facilities.
OF *THOSE* resettled 705 went to Australia. 705/1637 * 100 = 43% of Pacific Solution Boat arrivals got resettlement in Australia
Please head back to Grade 2 and finish your maths classes this time.
—————————————————–
if you had a modicum of intelligence you would be able to comprehend that the figures were not calculated by me but were done by the people who wrote the article for publication on the Australian Government Parliamentary website.
And as usual you resort to the name-calling. And you cry in your pillow when you are called names – but there is so much evidence to prove you are an idiot
GG
[Someone get back to me when they have a solution that is not cloked in electioneering, political partisanship and does not incorporate the rush to being the best ever bastards.]
It’s a sad day for PB when you and I agree on something. 😥
I would say a lot of this, is because KR is putting together
sour grapes
jv
That is a good link, IMHO.
It presages the various grounds for the legal challenges that are sure to come. It also supports my view that the Raskols Cargo Cult Solution will not work. Australia will not be able to outsource our asylum seeker problem – in the same way as we cannot outsource our Greens problem.
The only safe, secure and legal long term solution to deterring boatborne asylum seekers are:
(1) A policy of no visas at all, ever, for asylum seekers arriving by boats.
(2) Jails built and managed in Australia for those who will never be granted visas. These jails should be designed and constructed so that they cannot burn or damaged with sticks and stones and such that inmates are unable to damage other inmates. The jails should also be built to last for generations because they will have a more or less permanent, and possibly growing function, as AGW adds more tens of millions of refugees to the 46,000,000 the world has generated in our lifetime.
(3) Withdrawing from the Convention unless it is reformed such that Australia is free to determine how many, and by what means, and which refugees arrive for resettlement in Australia. This is a political non-negotiable. IMHO, getting it wrong in his first incarnation will cost Rudd! the next term of government.
(4) Changing the Constitution such that the judiciary no longer have a determining role in who comes to Australia under what circumstances.
IMHO, the boundless plains of the Simpsons desert would provide the space for the jails.
The messages back home from those behind the wire about the true nature of Australia’s boundless plains might just help those back home that Australia has passed the limits of sustainability and is already eating its future.
Our plains are bounded.
For those interested in the FBT/lesaed car tax change, this link might be useful. It is an Auto industry magazine that reports news from manufacturers and retailers.
http://goautomedia.cdn.on.net/goautonews/GoAutoNews_688.pdf
Read it carefully if you are a policy maker. Many in it rail against the policy change (P4 to P6), but note in the fine print:
– a Deloittes guy points out that many lower income earners may have been worse off on existing novated leases than if they had bought the car differently. (P 7) Few people actually check the maths and lots of salesmen make their living selling the novated lease deals.
– the main complaints are still from high cost importers like Mercedes (p 8)
– the local industries woes related to average price, and started a long time ago (p 23)
– new models are still being released at teh economy end of the market (P9), so despite teh sky allegedly falling, life goes on.
Overall car sales in Australia in 2012 were at an all time high, so some market correction was inevitable.
DIO WHAT IS YOUR SOLUTION
you are very clever educated person , well travelled
I reaaly get annoyed at people who are negative about things and have no good solution,
its like the parents at P and F wh0 moan about everything done at the school but never turn up when ideas are needed
the world of full of people who have opinions
.
butDO NOTHING DIO AND B W GG STAND FOR ELECTION IF U KNOW THE ANSWERS
I am so over the doooooooooooogoooooders in this country
@BW/135
Your in a dream land, none of those will be remotely possible.
And some of those ideas are worse than currently proposed.
Sure, 70% of bastardry is better than 100% of bastardry.
Bastardry is what bastardry is.
Both major parties own it.
Be proud, stand tall.
When you are overseas and people ask you about Australia’s stance on asylum seekers, look them in the eye and with heart-felt sincerity proclaim “I am Australian. I say Fcuk off to desperate human beings fleeing for their lives. Australia is full”.
Stand tall, be proud.
We all know that the Greens are the only compassionate people on Bludger. Just ask them.
They are the ones who are ready to judge others for their lack of compassion, for their racism, for their indifference to suffering children, and for their anti-semitism and so on and so forth.
The reason I am calling the Greens the Compassion Cops who play the Compassion Card is that is exactly what they do. They do it all the time. Just don’t tell them that that is what they are doing because they hate mirrors.
The rest of us are just arrogant, cruel, harsh,ego-driven, Tea Party members; boring ars*holes and various other sort of bastards.
I don’t know if it is only me, but I sense the media has suddenly discovered that “boat people” are more than “boat people”.
Whereas the media have been complicit for years in making these individuals non-people, and hence easy to demonise (thank you Dr Goebbels) now all kinds of people-pictures are turning up. Suddenly there is an interest in individual stories.
The honourable exception over the years has been SBS.
The cynic in me thinks this new approach is a recently discovered compassion only with the Rudd Solution coming into play.
GG, ‘Someone get back to me when they have a solution that is not cloked in electioneering, political partisanship and does not incorporate the rush to being the best ever bastards.’
I guess this means you don’t have a solution either. Basically, any solution involves being a bit of a ‘bastard’. Probably the biggest mistake we made was start wars in two of the countries which are now substantial AS source countries. I only wish so many of my fellow countrymen weren’t so complacent in letting Howard do it. My only hope is that people will learn that starting a war is a terrible thing and we should not do it.
z
‘Your in a dream land, none of those will be remotely possible.’
I agree that it is a matter for judgement and that scenarios based on predictions are always chancy.
Remember that I am thinking in terms of decades not election period months.
my say
I am being compassionate for the people in the camps.
I think failing to have proper standards there means lawyers will see the end of offshore.
I think Burke has to act quickly to resolve the issue.
Its a compassionate stance you can have no matter what you think of Labor policy.
It is because I do not believe for one second it is Labor policy to support rape and torture as alleged.
Socrates
Cut any vested interest and it bleeds.
Re boat asylum seeker arrivals in Australia, here is my take on the history (numbers are numbers of people), trying to be as objective as possible. There are no simple solutions and no pretty ones:
* 1976 to 1979 – about 2000 asylum seeker arrivals in total following the end of the Vietnam War. They were dealt with by the Fraser Government with bipartisan support, regional involvement and no moral panic.
* 1980 to 1988 – 26 arrivals in 1981, none in other years, in spite of no mandatory detention or overseas processing. The Iran-Iraq war and Soviets in Afghanistan apparently did not result in asylum seekers heading by boat to Australia.
* 1989 – arrivals start again, reaching about 200 per annum in 1990. Mandatory detention introduced in 1992, which may have lead to a dip in arrivals in 1993.
* Arrivals surge from 1994 and average nearly 500 per annum from 1994 to 1998. This increase seems to be unconnected with any changes in Australian policies and probably reflects the international situation.
* Arrivals greatly increase from 1999, with over 12,000 asylum seekers arriving by boat from 1999 to 2001. Again, this seems to reflect the international situation and not be connected to anything that Australia has done.
* Late 1999 – TPVs introduced. This may have lead to a dip in the numbers of arrivals in the following year, but arrivals escalate to unprecedented levels in 2001.
* Late 2001 – Pacific Solution introduced, which apparently stops the boats. A temporary improvement in the situation in 2002/3 in Afghanistan and Iraq following the downfall of the Taliban and Saddam Hussein may also have contributed. Numbers increase slowly to about 150 p.a. by the end of the Howard era.
* Early 2008 – Pacific Solution ended. This seemed to have had little immediate impact in 2008 but numbers bounce back to pre-Pacific Solution numbers from 2009. The end of the Sri Lanka Civil War (May 2009) probably contributed.
* May 2011 – Malaysia Solution mooted, which seems to have lead to a temporary dip in arrivals.
* Late 2011 onwards – numbers surge to over triple previous records. This might be a combination of: the collapse of the Malaysia Solution; greater experience, sophistication and ruthlessness on the part of people-smugglers (development of their ‘business model’); a view that the Australia will not be ‘open’ much longer (‘going out of business sale’); plans for withdrawals of Western troops from Afghanistan; and the rise of extreme fundamentalist Islam in Pakistan and elsewhere.
2012: The Pacific Solution reintroduced, which seems to have had no impact.
I put together the following chart of arrivals from 1989 to 2012 (http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevevii77/9351383816/). Numbers are shown on a logarithmic scale to bring out the ups and downs prior to 2010. People can get the numbers from the source (http://www.aph.gov.au/about_parliament/parliamentary_departments/parliamentary_library/pubs/bn/2012-2013/boatarrivals#_Toc347230718) and put it into a linear scale if they wish.
GG and guytaur and jv, and others all squished together ….
Top of the ‘Best ever Bastards are the Smugglers you are assisting …..
Top of the ‘Best ever Bastards are the Smugglers you are assisting …..
Top of the ‘Best ever Bastards are the Smugglers you are assisting …..
Top of the ‘Best ever Bastards are the Smugglers you are assisting …..
Top of the ‘Best ever Bastards are the Smugglers you are assisting …..
Ad Infinitum/Ad Nauseam.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/right-has-twigged-that-abbott-may-be-on-shaky-ground-20130723-2qhfc.html
Worth a read the Libs are knackered.
BW
Wow, they are very tough conditions.
A kind of Fortress Oz – jail within jail as it were?
Still, consistent with our historical background I suppose. Some came here free, some in chains and some for ten quid.
Pegasus at 139
Did you see this classic from Dave Pope?
https://twitter.com/lucethoughts/status/359174558349160448/photo/1