Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a more coastal orientation along the southern half of the Sunshine Coast. Caboolture and Bribie Island have been the constants of the electorate amid frequently changing boundaries, which have variously appended the electorate’s core either with outer northern Brisbane suburbs or semi-rural hinterland. The former was most evident when the boundaries encompassed the coastal suburb of Deception Bay at the time of the 2007 election, which was the only occasion thus far when the seat has been won by Labor. This area was transferred to Petrie in the redistribution before the 2010 election, with Longman regaining the Woodford and D’Aguilar area it had temporarily lost to Fisher.
Longman had a notional Liberal margin of 1.6% on its creation at the 1996 election, to which the party’s candidate Mal Brough added a further 10.0% in the context of a disastrous result for Labor throughout Queensland. Brough was nonetheless lucky to survive the 1998 election after a 1.6% redistribution shift and a 9.1% swing back to Labor left him with only 0.5% to spare. After picking up successive swings of 1.8% in 2001 and 5.2% in 2004, Brough’s margin was pegged back by redistribution to 6.6% going into the 2007 election. By this time Brough had emerged as a senior figure in the Howard government, serving progressively as Employment Services Minister from 2001 to 2004, Assistant Treasurer and Revenue Minister from 2004 to 2006, and Families and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs from 2006 until the Howard government’s defeat a year later. His profile was considerably raised by the latter role, in which he oversaw the government’s sweeping intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities.
Longman gave Labor one of its most rewarding victories of the 2007 election when Brough was dumped by a 10.3% swing, which was notably more concentrated in low-income Caboolture than the more affluent Bribie Island. Labor’s winning candidate was Jon Sullivan, who had served the area in state parliament from 1989 as member for Glass House and Caboolture, before losing the latter seat to One Nation in 1998. The exchange of urban for semi-rural territory at the 2010 election reduced the Labor margin from 3.6% to 1.9%, though even the pre-redistribution margin would have been insufficient against the 3.8% swing Sullivan suffered amid an election result which cost Labor seven of its 15 Queensland seats. His cause was not aided by a late campaign gaffe committed during a public forum broadcast on ABC Radio, in which he drew jeers from the audience after responding critically to a question posed by the father of a disabled child.
The LNP’s victory was especially noteworthy in returning a candidate who at 20 years of age was the youngest person ever elected to an Australian parliament. Wyatt Roy had won preselection at a local party ballot the previous March, at which time the seat was not considered one the party had much cause to be optimistic about. A University of Queensland student, electorate officer to state Glass House MP Andrew Powell and president of the Sunshine Coast Young Liberal National Party, Roy reportedly impressed party members with his pitch at the preselection meeting, and performed well in subsequent media appearances. His win in the ballot ahead of former Caboolture councillor Peter Flannery and local businessman Steve Attrill was confirmed by the party’s state council, despite criticism from Mal Brough who queried how such a candidate would connect with the the electorate’s “large component of veterans and seniors”.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Michael Caisley, an organiser with the Left faction United Voice union (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union). Meanwhile, Mal Brough will be seeking to return to politics as LNP candidate for the electorate’s northern neighbour, Fisher.
@Sean/1699
Carbon is not a tax.
[but how does Labor counteract this]
By arguing that the only way to abate dangerous global warming is to reduce the amount of carbon emissions polluting the atmosphere.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 3m
Malcolm’s Ode to Malcolm http://bit.ly/zbcZs
AussieAchmed Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 5:45 pm @1684
According to Andrew Elder, Scott Morrison was the “moderate” candidate in that preselection.
zoid:
As I understand it the only way the current scheme can be changed is through legislative amendments. This means parliament being recalled, or going to the election with changes.
If the latter, then suddenly carbon pricing becomes an election issue whereas it wasn’t before.
B.C.
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 6:07 pm | Permalink
According to Andrew Elder, Scott Morrison was the “moderate” candidate in that preselection.
======================================================
Scary isn’t it? Was he one of the “faceless men”…???
Confessions
Abbott and robb will have to resign, Rodd said if they didn’t bring in an emts they will resign
robb i should say
dtt,
The traded carbon price might go up again, but that’s just putting price signals into the market. That’s effective at driving efficiencies. But what we need to get a utility scale renewable energy supply is clever financing.
Zimmerman given a Not-Guilty verdict in the U.S, thank God.
Jury must have seen Trayvon’s crim records… no innocent bystander here folks.
zoidlord
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 6:04 pm | Permalink
@Sean/1699
Carbon is not a tax.
—————————————————–
getting Sean to understand anything is a waste of time….he crawled out of the gene pool after diving in and banging his head…..he would be out of his depth in a car park puddle.
You would be better spending your time training a goldfish to speak Latin.
Based on Senator Milne’s comments today it would appear that the Greens would oppose Rudd’s move to bring forward the ETS. Windsor has previously said that he thinks it might be worthwhile. So, if Rudd recalls Parliament to legislate the change he may or may not have the numbers in the HoR but would need Coalition support to get it through the Senate.
This potentially wedges the Coalition. If they vote with the Government it’s hard to then oppose it in the election. If they vote against the change Rudd can argue that Abbott opposed cheaper power, opposed removing the carbon tax and decry his negative politics.
So for Rudd it might appear to be a win/win. I would caution however, that when Rudd tried to wedge Turnbull in 2009 on the ETS he ended up with Abbott.
Sean does do a good job of exposing the juvenile nature of Liberal rhetoric.
AussieAchmed,
trying to pretend the Carbon Tax isn’t a tax is stupid.
Gillard admitted it was effectively a tax. A majority of Australians refer to it as a Tax. IT meets all the definitions of a Carbon Tax.
Why keep spinning the lie that the Carbon Tax isn’t a Tax? It’s dumb and it makes the left look dumb.
Ch 10 Adelaide mentioned that Rudd has announced ‘there will be no carbon tax under a government he leads’. Followed by Abbott and Morrison. They then mentioned that ‘a plethora of polling expected this week will make it clearer as to whether Tony Abbott is still favourite to take the Lodge’.
AussieAchmed Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 6:12 pm @1706
I don’t know. My knowledge is restricted to that article, which I read some months ago, and Andrew Elder’s subsequent comments.
[ If they vote with the Government it’s hard to then oppose it in the election.]
So many of the things they oppose now they voted for in parliament. Nobody holds them to account for their actions.
@B.C./1712
True, and Agreed.
But Turnbull is Shadow Communications Minister.
If they change to Turnbull, and back off ETS, then that would also Wedge the Coalition Party because of the fact he supported ETS.
AA:
Here’s another to add to your growing list of Liberal positions:
https://twitter.com/SophiaMcGrane/status/355128022103375872/photo/1
‘Encouraging’ state schools to become independent to provide “simpler budgeting and resource allocation.”
@GC/1715
No surprise there.
Media will support Abbott.
Hi Dee
Isle of Mull is beautiful
Might be a bit tight in my suitcase 😀
confessions
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 6:21 pm | Permalink
AA:
Here’s another to add to your growing list of Liberal positions:
https://twitter.com/SophiaMcGrane/status/355128022103375872/photo/1
‘Encouraging’ state schools to become independent to provide “simpler budgeting and resource allocation.”
——————————————————-
Yes I have seen this.
I take it as “code” for we will contribute “X” amount of money. If parents want better schooling cough up the money to fund it.
This will be a distinct disadvantage to the low income workers and those in regional and remote.
It is about making sure the “lower classes” don’t get above their station and start thinking they are Abbott and Co. equals…
Stephanie Philbrick @Steph_Philbrick 4h
Cannot RT this enough… MT @SophiaMcGrane .@StephenJonesMP Is a Lib Govt planning to privatise PUBLIC SCHOOLING? pic.twitter.com/yQpGkzFIrI
Retweeted by R_Chirgwin
Rudd will have to go to an election as soon as possible because the Coalition is awash with money. Labor can stay in the fight for only a short time with one hand tied behind its back.
[1702
confessions
but how does Labor counteract this
By arguing that the only way to abate dangerous global warming is to reduce the amount of carbon emissions polluting the atmosphere.]
Labor should be arguing that an ETS will encourage electricity generators to switch to non-polluting technologies – that it works to change investment decisions in the energy sector. That is what an ETS is intended to do and what it will do.
By contrast, the LNP’s plans – so far as they exist at all – will not focus on changing investment decisions. They actually will do nothing much to abate CO2 emissions, but will just waste a lot of money.
The choice is between a low cost/high abatement option and a high cost/low abatement option. This should be argued in the context of the extremely high costs that will be incurred if dangerous climate change is not averted.
Spending modest amounts in the near term in order to prevent large future losses is very sound, prudent, conservative economics. This needs to be rammed home at every opportunity. The mathematics are very easy to compute: to avoid $1.00 of future losses, we can spend up to $33.00 in abatement and still come out in front. Of course, the cost:benefit ratio is far lower than 33:1, so by making modest current investments we are actually locking in significant future economic gains.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/turnbull-holds-forth-on-holding-back.html
ST
so summary executions a winner then if you have form?
Sean Tisme
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 6:18 pm | Permalink
AussieAchmed,
trying to pretend the Carbon Tax isn’t a tax is stupid.
Gillard admitted it was effectively a tax. A majority of Australians refer to it as a Tax. IT meets all the definitions of a Carbon Tax.
Why keep spinning the lie that the Carbon Tax isn’t a Tax? It’s dumb and it makes the left look dumb.
—————————————————-
People who are far more expert as these things than you or me state it is not a tax.
UTS Law Professor Natalie Stoianoff, the director of the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy at University of Western Australia David Pannell, and joint director for the Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets at UNSW Iain MacGill. Michael Dirkis, a professor in taxation law from the University of Sydney.
I will trust their judgement ahead of your or Abbotts uneducated rants..
[This will be a distinct disadvantage to the low income workers and those in regional and remote.]
True. It’s amazing nobody in the press gallery has picked up on this.
Sean Tisme
“What savage cuts does Rudd have planned for the Australian people to fill in Rudd’s $5 Billion Dollar Carbon Tax blackhole?”
I think they ought to start by making Tony Abbott pay back every red cent he’s wasted of our taxpayer dollars doing fun runs, bicycle races and swims. The rest of us don’t expect to get paid for acts of charity.
Stop the Rorts.;)
[Labor should be arguing that an ETS will encourage electricity generators to switch to non-polluting technologies – that it works to change investment decisions in the energy sector.]
Yes, I believe the carbon price has already began working on that front.
AA, Sean is having you on. He knows it is not a tax, he even explained it by using his car registration to illustrate that it is not tax, but a price for a permit to pollute.
During this week
Will Turnbull acknowledge he is more popular than the whole of the liberal party
I feel kind of sorry for Sean Tisme. He probably browses freerepublic and pines for an Australian Tea Party. Yeah yeah technically there is one but its thoroughly ignored.
A sad, fruitless and wasted existence, feeding off the scraps of conservative ideology Abbott lets drop from the populist table. Sorry about your dead ideology, Sean.:(
PeeBee
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 6:36 pm | Permalink
AA, Sean is having you on. He knows it is not a tax, he even explained it by using his car registration to illustrate that it is not tax, but a price for a permit to pollute.
——————————————————
back from a great day fishing and I’m doing this between filleting fish and grinding up the skeletons for burley….
I will concentrate a bit harder.
https://twitter.com/chef09876/status/356331436485259265/photo/1
=======================================================
look at poster
if we had 2 million unemployed id agree
but then creating 2 million more jobs we would have to bring in more refugees tony
correct if im wrong, do we have that many unemployed
Btw if any of you DON’T know what freerepublic is, Google it. If you get a dark sort of enjoyment watching rabid right-wingers perpetually freak out about having a bla… uh, “socialist” POTUS, you’ll dig it.
AmyArtz @artz_amy 41m
Gee, I’ve heard it all now! Abbott says that moving to an ETS one year earlier is “fake change”…. Where does he come up with this crap?!
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TONY What is fake change
imagine this man on the world stage,
fake change , what is a fake change
P
The reasons dogs are microchipped is so that they can be identified, and their owners identified, once collected from wherever.
The microchip does not help in the collection process or finding process, per se.
Abbott plans to increase the number of 457 visa workers as a vast majority become Aussies.
He will hand out 457 visas to the asylum seekers as they arrive….win/win.
No asylum seekers as they will become 457 workers and increase the number of workers to achieve his 2 million
That said, finding Zeus was easier in the days of the ancient greeks, apparently:
http://www.malwarehelp.org/find-and-remove-zeus-zbot-banking-trojan-2009.html
The policy settings of the majors vis-a-vis carbon emissions seems to be that the best way to address AGW is to ignore it before it goes away all by itself.
@my say/1738
Yup, Coalition Party tactics hasn’t changed at all.
George Megalogenis @GMegalogenis 5h
The Kevin effect, not challenging just preening: @TurnbullMalcolm says he’s more popular than @TonyAbbottMHR … http://m.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/i-know-im-more-popular-than-abbott-says-malcolm-turnbull/story-fn9qr68y-1226679132117 …
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David McKay David Lewis Preston Towers Michael Dawe Garth Morrison mizjustidious
8:47 PM – 13 Jul 13 · Details
Malcolm Turnbull @TurnbullMalcolm 1h
@GMegalogenis so George would you prefer I lied or declined to address the issue frankly? Is candour from a politician unsettling?
Expand
59m
@TurnbullMalcolm @GMegalogenis interesting that you doing this destabilising is just telling the truth while with Rudd it was nefarious.
AA
Salt or freshwater?
Golly. They are investigating Morsi for criminal offences, including ruining the economy.
He is going to have a raft of company in his cells going forward.
Can you trust a man to run the country who does not know the difference between a tax and a market?
A great line for an attack on Abbott as he calls an ETS a tax.
Swan and other ministers foolishly said it was “in effect a tax” or something like that. That made the argument “it’s not a tax” unwinnable.
Boerwar
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 6:51 pm | Permalink
AA
Salt or freshwater?
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salt. not much freshwater fishing around north west