Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a more coastal orientation along the southern half of the Sunshine Coast. Caboolture and Bribie Island have been the constants of the electorate amid frequently changing boundaries, which have variously appended the electorate’s core either with outer northern Brisbane suburbs or semi-rural hinterland. The former was most evident when the boundaries encompassed the coastal suburb of Deception Bay at the time of the 2007 election, which was the only occasion thus far when the seat has been won by Labor. This area was transferred to Petrie in the redistribution before the 2010 election, with Longman regaining the Woodford and D’Aguilar area it had temporarily lost to Fisher.
Longman had a notional Liberal margin of 1.6% on its creation at the 1996 election, to which the party’s candidate Mal Brough added a further 10.0% in the context of a disastrous result for Labor throughout Queensland. Brough was nonetheless lucky to survive the 1998 election after a 1.6% redistribution shift and a 9.1% swing back to Labor left him with only 0.5% to spare. After picking up successive swings of 1.8% in 2001 and 5.2% in 2004, Brough’s margin was pegged back by redistribution to 6.6% going into the 2007 election. By this time Brough had emerged as a senior figure in the Howard government, serving progressively as Employment Services Minister from 2001 to 2004, Assistant Treasurer and Revenue Minister from 2004 to 2006, and Families and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs from 2006 until the Howard government’s defeat a year later. His profile was considerably raised by the latter role, in which he oversaw the government’s sweeping intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities.
Longman gave Labor one of its most rewarding victories of the 2007 election when Brough was dumped by a 10.3% swing, which was notably more concentrated in low-income Caboolture than the more affluent Bribie Island. Labor’s winning candidate was Jon Sullivan, who had served the area in state parliament from 1989 as member for Glass House and Caboolture, before losing the latter seat to One Nation in 1998. The exchange of urban for semi-rural territory at the 2010 election reduced the Labor margin from 3.6% to 1.9%, though even the pre-redistribution margin would have been insufficient against the 3.8% swing Sullivan suffered amid an election result which cost Labor seven of its 15 Queensland seats. His cause was not aided by a late campaign gaffe committed during a public forum broadcast on ABC Radio, in which he drew jeers from the audience after responding critically to a question posed by the father of a disabled child.
The LNP’s victory was especially noteworthy in returning a candidate who at 20 years of age was the youngest person ever elected to an Australian parliament. Wyatt Roy had won preselection at a local party ballot the previous March, at which time the seat was not considered one the party had much cause to be optimistic about. A University of Queensland student, electorate officer to state Glass House MP Andrew Powell and president of the Sunshine Coast Young Liberal National Party, Roy reportedly impressed party members with his pitch at the preselection meeting, and performed well in subsequent media appearances. His win in the ballot ahead of former Caboolture councillor Peter Flannery and local businessman Steve Attrill was confirmed by the party’s state council, despite criticism from Mal Brough who queried how such a candidate would connect with the the electorate’s “large component of veterans and seniors”.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Michael Caisley, an organiser with the Left faction United Voice union (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union). Meanwhile, Mal Brough will be seeking to return to politics as LNP candidate for the electorate’s northern neighbour, Fisher.
But if Nielsen is something like 52 Labor, 48 Coalition, the reaction of News Ltd & the pro Abbott media cheersquad will be amusing to witness.
Greensborough Growler
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 2:53 pm | Permalink
So far we’ve seen the Rudd Government solution:
1. Fix the AS issue – Spend more taxpayer money
2. Fix the Carbon Tax – Spend more taxpayer money.
3. Fix the Debt issue – Spend more taxpayer money.
These turkeys should be edgy about Christmas in July.
======================================================
1. USA has turn the boast back policy that has been operating for 50years and still the boats come. The Coast Guard has a budget of around $10 billion.
2. Exactly what Abbott is proposing with his Direct Action
3. That’s called investing in the economy. If Govt don’t spend for example building a new hospital, the companies that would have gained the work are without work and close/bankrupt…increased unemployment….business confidence fails…just look at the UK austerity program
Hi Mari
Got any room in your suitcase? 😀
Isle of Mull but are spread far and wide.
I haven’t seen Abbott’s “positive” ad, but from someone’s description he’s waving his little booklet around pretending its actual policy.
tbw,
Put a little love in your heart.
And, the world will be a better place
For you
And me,
You just wait and see……….
cc,
I’d love to see “Chairman Mao” Tony Abbott waving his little red book around.
Gillard certainly ruled out a carbon tax prior to the 2010 election. She told Network Ten news, in a live cross from Brisbane, that “there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead”.
A few days later, in an interview with The Australian newspaper, she is quoted as saying: “I don’t rule out the possibility of legislating a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, a market-based mechanism…. I rule out a carbon tax.”
On July 1 2012, a carbon pricing mechanism began in Australia.
Why do people persist in providing only half of the interview statement Gillard made.
Is it a form of lying? Deliberate mistruth with intent to deceive?
Achmed,
The bigger lie was in Abbott conflating the intention to not introduce a carbon price in the form of a tax, with a promise to introduce no carbon price at all. We can argue if its a “tax” or “looks like a tax” but in the end the real damage was done by convincing voters that she promised not to price carbon full stop.
Its a dirty lie on the part of Abbott, but it would never have had the traction if not for the support in some of the media.
I am still waiting for someone…..anyone from the alp to start referring to Abbott’s ‘Direct Action TAX’ and see if they can’t create a bit of static for Tone…
GG,
I’d love to see an add that portrays the Lib front bench as nutters. Could be done with actual footage.
cc,
That would be very unfair.
Using facts and truth.
Labor should try it too.
Achmed,
Its quite deliberate. Indeed I found the full version of that interview at one point. Now I can’t find it. But its clear in context that when Gillard says “no tax” she’s saying she won’t be following the Greens who were proposing a simple and literal tax.
Cud
Without knowing which if any programs are cut it is hard to make rational judgement on the ETS.
As far as bringing it forward one year this is political sense – it removes the “carbon Tax” replacing it with a “carbon pricing mechanism” as promised and plays with Abbott’s head.
There will be a mild slow down in moves toward reducing electricity consumption by these will be trivial – as is truly argued the additional impost of the Carbon Tax is less than 10% for ordinary households, which is trivial besides the 40% other increases imposed by the electricity suppliers. In other words to achieve financial incentives to reduce electricity use the Carbon Price is probably not a major driver of behavioural change AT PRESENT.
OMFG !!!! Fairfax get the headline right .
[Rudd will scrap fixed carbon price]
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/kevin-rudd-confirms-government-to-scrap-fixed-carbon-price-20130714-2pxqi.html
I wonder if there’s a stronger word for “unhingement” ?
‘Why do people persist in providing only half of the interview statement Gillard made.’
Why hasn’t anyone from the alp sought to make the selective misquoting an issue?
Why did Gillard never defend her words?
Why has the ALP been so freakin’gutless for so long……
What savage cuts does Rudd have planned for the Australian people to fill in Rudd’s $5 Billion Dollar Carbon Tax blackhole?
Rosemour,
The problem is that Rudd has today delegitimised the Carbon Price and the whole campaign the Government has run for three years.
Basically, it’s a huge free kick for Abbott. No one is interested in his alternative. The message today is that Abbott was right from the get go.
Rudd scores an own goal.
But he’s still waving and smiling.
Driving home this aftrenoon I saw the first election billboard – a big one – for Matt Williams, Liberal candidate for Hindmarsh, on Cross Road. The Libs must be planning to spend a lot on that electorate.
[On July 1 2012, a carbon pricing mechanism began in Australia.
Why do people persist in providing only half of the interview statement Gillard made.]
Feel free to tell us what Gillards Carbon Tax that she would never introduce would look like.
You guys have been spinning bullshit for so long, yet you can never answer the f’ing question!
Sean Tisme
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 5:32 pm | Permalink
What savage cuts does Rudd have planned for the Australian people to fill in Rudd’s $5 Billion Dollar Carbon Tax blackhole?
—————————————————–
Possibly the same ones Abbott is too gutless to talk about.
He has a budget revenue shortfall of $4.5 billion for the tax cuts and compensation under the carbon price plus no funding for the $3+billion Direct Action.
I know who has the bigger hole….Abbott
dtt,
Yes but for me the most effective arm of the whole policy was to encourage investment in utility scale renewable energy and with that the CEFC. For me that’s actually more important than a modest added price signal.
Poroti
Strange, this is the way the ETS news is deacribed on their ABC news site:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-14/federal-government-to-scrap-carbon-tax/4818980
Like I said earlier this morning, emphasing that we are only changing from a fixed price to a market price is critical for Labor.
Greensborough Growler
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 5:32 pm | Permalink
Rosemour,
The problem is that Rudd has today delegitimised the Carbon Price and the whole campaign the Government has run for three years.
——————————————————–
How is bringing the move to an ETS 12 months early delegitimising the carbon price??
The Liberal candidate for Deakin, the 2nd most marginal seat in the country, some guy called Sukkar, has been up and running for some time – he has several big billboards up in prominent locations for weeks.
This Sukkar is a corporate tax lawyer for some big firm at the top end of town.
I was toying with the idea of underground type campaign along the lines of “Blood Sukkar” – stop the man who is helping fat cats to dodge taxes.
Cud
Surely it is just a time factor – if and when the Carbon price in Europe goes up the incentive for investment in renewables will return.
AA,
Fixing a non problem creates a real problem.
Rudd has excelled today.
Sean Tisme
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 5:33 pm | Permalink
On July 1 2012, a carbon pricing mechanism began in Australia.
Why do people persist in providing only half of the interview statement Gillard made.
Feel free to tell us what Gillards Carbon Tax that she would never introduce would look like.
You guys have been spinning bullshit for so long, yet you can never answer the f’ing question!
——————————————————
Stubbed Toe – again I post……how f**king stupid are you that you cannot understand the difference. Anyone trying to explain it to you – again ….would be wasting their time.
On literal truth, the experts say the carbon pricing mechanism is not technically a tax – although it tastes, sounds, and smells like one for the first three years.
Prior to the election, Gillard distinguished between a carbon pricing mechanism and a tax, and this is what she has essentially delivered, except for the three-year fixed price period. And that’s a big exception.
Sean Tisme: keep the comedy routine going 😀
Socrates:
I am hoping that when the announcement is actually made (assuming there will be an announcement and not just leaving it with leaks to the media!), that the govt are very clear that they are not scrapping carbon pricing.
Why would anyone support a man who actively campaigned against the levy to help fellow Australians in Queensland rebuild after the floods
Yet he proposes a levy for Parental Leave.
The man has the compassion of a white pointer in a feeding frenzy
GG
Do you actually understand the changes proposed. It is actually just bringing something forward by one year.
The only group who have cause to whinge are the Greens who lose one year of their precious Gillard alliance gain. They may have cause to complain, but it will not harm Labor. There may be a few on the Labor left with very green views who are upset but not many I would think.
While I personally have NOTHING against most Greens with a few whinging exceptions I think the “alliance” was very bad for BOTH parties.
I now fear for the future of the Greens which is a pity because I think they play a vital role.
[vexnews @vexnews 44m
Erdoğan’s chief adviser knows what’s behind Turkey’s protests – telekinesis http://bit.ly/18ULVdy ]
I thought he’d shut himself down? Obviously that was just while his wife was seeking preselection.
alias
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 5:37 pm | Permalink
The Liberal candidate for Deakin, the 2nd most marginal seat in the country, some guy called Sukkar, has been up and running for some time – he has several big billboards up in prominent locations for weeks.
———————————————————
Is he safe from the faceless men in the Liberal Party?
They destroyed one persons career and hospitalised his mother with their false allegations and lies
Two senior people within the Liberal Party, whose identity is known to a widening circle within the party, went through Towke’s nomination papers to find every possible discrepancy and weakness. Then they started calling selected journalists to tell them Towke was a liar. The first story appeared in The Daily Telegraph on July 18, 2007, under the headline, ”Liberal ballot scandal in Howard’s backyard.” Three days later, on July 21, a second story appeared in the Telegraph: ”Towke future on hold.” The next day, in The Sunday Telegraph, a third story: ”Party split as Liberal candidate faces jail.”
”That was the story that sent my mother to hospital,” Towke told me.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/society-and-culture/nasty-saga-you-nearly-missed-20091025-hem5.html#ixzz2Z0IUPI62
Are Crikey being sponsored by antispying malware? I’m getting an ad in my tablet view and I recognise it as something that gives you an undesired search engine. Or is it just me?
Abbott’s Direct Action will increase taxes. It will be a burden on every consumer as he increases taxes and cuts spending on essential things like health
GG
How in the dame of Dog can you say that the CT was not an electoral problem. Quite unfairly Gillard was dumped on over her “tax” statement and the GBNT was Abbott’s mantra.
Bringing the ETS forward negates the “broken promise” mantra the Libs would otherwise have pushed.
fwiw, today I met up with a friend who is well-plugged into WA Labor, and through his professional work is also on amiable terms with many senior WA Liberals.
According to my friend, both Labor and the LNP have internal national polling from last week placing the TPP @ 53/47 in Labor’s favour. He also reckons the Libs are thoroughly perplexed, and some now anticipate defeat. The situation in WA is still not as good as the national polling, but Labor no longer believe their WA seats are at risk and give themselves a fighting chance in Hasluck.
[Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust 2m
via @chriskkenny: On #Viewpoint 8pm Rush to dump #CarbonTax Has @KRuddMP polluted the waters? With @GregHuntMP @mirandadevine JacquelineMa]
Carbon pricing was dead as a political issue. Thanks to the happy little vegemite it’s now a political issue again.
[How in the dame of Dog can you say that the CT was not an electoral problem.]
Because it’s the coalition who were going to the election proposing change.
Why would anyone not only support a man who campaigned against a levy to help fellow Australians but
claims travel allowance to sell his book
claims travel allowance to do a charity swim throughs
claims travel allowance to ride a bike for charity
Nothing charitable in these acts when he is making a profit at taxpayer expense.
He should have “Sponsored by Australian Taxpayer” emblazoned on his lycra.
I’ve never thought to ask it before but do all pollies claim expenses when doing so-called charity work or is it only the Rabbott???
@Confessions/1689
It was always going to be a political – keeping Gillard as leader would not have changed it.
michael w beattie @mickdundee48 26m
My wife just christened our smoke detector Tony Abbott, shrill screech and repetitive, hasn’t changed its tune since installation.
Abbott claimed travel allowance when he was apparently out fighting those fires
Confessions
My electricity per KWH has just gone up 20%. Now you and I know that this is NOT the fault of the Carbon Price/Tax but I doubt that the average householder will see it that way.
The utility company just announced the price rise, leaving the average person to sort of assume it is the CT. Rotten and unfair SURE – but how does Labor counteract this.
zoid:
Gillard is no longer leader and is retiring from politics, which means that carbon pricing is even less of a line of attack from the opposition.
In 2008 the Liberals supported the Rudd Govt dismantling of the so-called Pacific Solution.
They back flipped on that support when they saw a political advantage. Nothing to do with care about Australia or the asylum seekers…totally, completely for political reasons
How disgusting>>>how can they be trusted not to back flip on any policy or agreement???
Axe the Tax! Axe the Tax! Axe the Tax!
Labor finally admits Abbott was right
@Confessions/1697
And moving to ETS earlier will do two things:
1. Making it more less of an issue.
2. Turnbull supported ETS.
2 Wedges at least I see.