Longman is centred on Caboolture and Burpengary in Brisbane’s outer north, from which it extends eastwards to Bribie Island and the mainland coast immediately opposite and westwards to the semi-rural townships of Woodford and D’Aguilar. The seat was created at the 1996 election from territory that had mostly been in Fisher, which thereafter assumed a more coastal orientation along the southern half of the Sunshine Coast. Caboolture and Bribie Island have been the constants of the electorate amid frequently changing boundaries, which have variously appended the electorate’s core either with outer northern Brisbane suburbs or semi-rural hinterland. The former was most evident when the boundaries encompassed the coastal suburb of Deception Bay at the time of the 2007 election, which was the only occasion thus far when the seat has been won by Labor. This area was transferred to Petrie in the redistribution before the 2010 election, with Longman regaining the Woodford and D’Aguilar area it had temporarily lost to Fisher.
Longman had a notional Liberal margin of 1.6% on its creation at the 1996 election, to which the party’s candidate Mal Brough added a further 10.0% in the context of a disastrous result for Labor throughout Queensland. Brough was nonetheless lucky to survive the 1998 election after a 1.6% redistribution shift and a 9.1% swing back to Labor left him with only 0.5% to spare. After picking up successive swings of 1.8% in 2001 and 5.2% in 2004, Brough’s margin was pegged back by redistribution to 6.6% going into the 2007 election. By this time Brough had emerged as a senior figure in the Howard government, serving progressively as Employment Services Minister from 2001 to 2004, Assistant Treasurer and Revenue Minister from 2004 to 2006, and Families and Community Services and Indigenous Affairs from 2006 until the Howard government’s defeat a year later. His profile was considerably raised by the latter role, in which he oversaw the government’s sweeping intervention into Northern Territory indigenous communities.
Longman gave Labor one of its most rewarding victories of the 2007 election when Brough was dumped by a 10.3% swing, which was notably more concentrated in low-income Caboolture than the more affluent Bribie Island. Labor’s winning candidate was Jon Sullivan, who had served the area in state parliament from 1989 as member for Glass House and Caboolture, before losing the latter seat to One Nation in 1998. The exchange of urban for semi-rural territory at the 2010 election reduced the Labor margin from 3.6% to 1.9%, though even the pre-redistribution margin would have been insufficient against the 3.8% swing Sullivan suffered amid an election result which cost Labor seven of its 15 Queensland seats. His cause was not aided by a late campaign gaffe committed during a public forum broadcast on ABC Radio, in which he drew jeers from the audience after responding critically to a question posed by the father of a disabled child.
The LNP’s victory was especially noteworthy in returning a candidate who at 20 years of age was the youngest person ever elected to an Australian parliament. Wyatt Roy had won preselection at a local party ballot the previous March, at which time the seat was not considered one the party had much cause to be optimistic about. A University of Queensland student, electorate officer to state Glass House MP Andrew Powell and president of the Sunshine Coast Young Liberal National Party, Roy reportedly impressed party members with his pitch at the preselection meeting, and performed well in subsequent media appearances. His win in the ballot ahead of former Caboolture councillor Peter Flannery and local businessman Steve Attrill was confirmed by the party’s state council, despite criticism from Mal Brough who queried how such a candidate would connect with the the electorate’s “large component of veterans and seniors”.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Michael Caisley, an organiser with the Left faction United Voice union (formerly the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union). Meanwhile, Mal Brough will be seeking to return to politics as LNP candidate for the electorate’s northern neighbour, Fisher.
poroti wrote in @1563
I always find Abbott’s talk of Labor’s faceless men amusing considering the fact that if anyone was made leader by the faceless men, it was Tony.
tbw,
You’d be perfect for marriage.
“Find someone you can’t get on with and buy them a house”.
I don’t know how anyone could be ‘in the know’ re: the final Nielsen result yet. They’re still polling.
zoidlord
sorry just a cheeky forecast
but on all probablity that should be right … even better
Nielsen of 52-48 to Labor is very positive (but so was the 57-43 on election eve 2007!)
Looking like an ‘early’ election is a good idea, early Sept seems like a go-er now.
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets/linking/index_en.htm
The EU expects the international carbon market to develop through “bottom-up” linking of compatible emission trading systems. Linking enables participants in one system to use units from a linked system for compliance purposes.
Linking the EU ETS with other cap-and-trade systems offers several potential benefits, including reducing the cost of cutting emissions, increasing market liquidity, making the carbon price more stable, leveling the international playing field and supporting global cooperation on climate change.
The number of emissions trading systems around the world is increasing. Besides the EU ETS, national or sub-national systems are already operating in Australia, Japan, New Zealand and the United States, and are planned in Canada, China, South Korea and Switzerland.
ICAPThe Commission is a founding member of the International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP), which brings together countries and regions that are actively pursuing the development of carbon markets through implementation of mandatory cap-and-trade systems. ICAP provides a forum for sharing experience and knowledge.
Pathway towards linking EU and Australian
a major step towards the first full inter-continental linking of emission trading systems, the Commission and Australia announced agreement in August 2012 on a pathway for linking the EU ETS and the Australian emissions trading scheme.
@GC/1603
@geoffrey/1604
Probably, when do Nielsen usually release? I always forget when the pollster’s release their poll’s.
I think the polls will go our even further
55.45 lab
my say
i agree … will follow your lead
Alexander White @alexanderwhite 16m
What does Christine Milne think she is doing, walking in lock step with Tony Abbott on criticising Australia’s carbon pricing policy?
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chris murphy @chrismurphys 47m
Uni results? Prefer Rudd BA(Asian Studies) 1st Class Hons.Trumps Abbott plodder pass degrees BEc&LLB & uni politics Rhodes MA #auspol
Retweeted by George Bludger
my say Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 4:23 pm @1610
She’s trying to shore up the Green vote.
milne and many like her are rabidly anti labor – crazy utopian logic that out of defeat of labor they greens will emerge as phoenix of new government. on that basis happy to whiteant (to use a current term) labor all the way – now that they jettisoned government earlier this year. not a clue about diplomatic politics. milne is not up to task – has she congratulated rudd yet? even abbot did that. i hope rudd sucks up the green vote this time – unfortunately they will probably have balance
Personally I’d prefer someone like Senator Scott Ludlam to have the balance of power over say Senator John Madigan or one of the crazies from Queensland. I also think Australia is better off when one of the major parties don’t have a majority in the Senate.
[@darrenlaver: Lib source says @TurnbullMalcolm could “only muster 30 odd votes” in leadership ballot. But added it “could change rapidly if polls worsen”]
Mod Lib was right about the second bit!
geoffrey
The only party likely to be in a position to control both houses is the Coalition. So be glad The Greens can block that
@Darren/1614
Maybe too late if it’s for popularity thing.
Policies will stay the same.
[confessions
Posted Sunday, July 14, 2013 at 4:05 pm | Permalink
On preferences, this was posted by Labor member C@tmomma over the road:
Well, back from a very interesting meeting this morning to which our Local Member turned up.
Therefore, I now have an inkling of when the election will be. Can’t say anything about that, of course, but what I can say is that it’s no wonder Clive wanted to buy out Bob’s party. The Katter Party, I am reliably informed, is the dark horse coming up the outside as we head into the final straight of the election race. He’s a definite threat to the Nationals, and his preferences will likely be crucial in a number of seats.
I believe C@t is in Robertson.]
Fess
Is there any suggestion that Labor might benefit from katter splitting the conservative vote? I’ve been wondering about that.
There are some people here getting a bit ahead of themselves regarding the Neilsen poll IMO. Just remember it is the one which has been consistently understating the Labor pv for months. Whether that will change now with the return of Rudd remains to be seen. I am keeping my expectations low just in case.
PeeBee
Yeah. The DAP scheme is corporate socialism.
I think PMKR will call the election after the special Caucus meeting next Monday.
Prepare for a 24 or 31 August polling day.
[Is there any suggestion that Labor might benefit from katter splitting the conservative vote? I’ve been wondering about that.]
Wouldn’t surprise me if a lot of Katter party people preference Labor before Liberal because of Rudd.
@Rob_Stott: #Turnbullence sitting at six out of 10 internets invented http://t.co/hATHRlF2Nl
gg
I think you are losing it!
The difference between the Greens and the Katter mob is that the Greens can articulate why they are a danger to humanity. The Katterites are a seething mass of “don’t you worry about that” types who knows something is wrong but never looked in a mirror to find the source.
“@bencubby: EU carbon price, which we are apparently about to be linked to, will go from $6 to $70 over the next 7 years, Bloomberg says. via @p_hannam”
tbw,
I’ll still suspect you in the morning.
gg
Are you always so impertinent? Have you been to Mass today?
The tax cuts and compensation for the carbon price cost $4.5 billion a year.
Abbott plans to keep that in place and remove all revenue that is provided by the carbon price.
Abbott also has his $3 billion direct action to fund.
If Abbott can make claim to keeping the tax cuts etc without the revenue so can Labor.
tbw,
Yes, I have.
How about you.
I think Nielsen will follow suit and be 50-50, give or take a point either way.
glory,
Good to see you go out on a limb!
See some
little “Rays of Sunshine” on here and some unlikely alliances
thanks to Boerwar, Victoria for good wishes also Dee not going to Orkneys this time, but will remember what you said. What island did they come from? Think I thanks others last night
Confessions, Boerwar and Briefly what it is worth re climate Scotland i have never seen so green and lush, where the Standing stones are he grass and flowers were so high, the people whotook me had never seen it likethat before
gg
Nope gave it up years ago and all the happier for it particularly now with what the Royal Commission is revealing.
For Canberra Bludgers:
[Please help us find Zeus
Reward for information resulting in the return of Zeus. He is a 3.5 year old staffy cross that is owned by Canberra Sparky Josh Way rescued when he was a pup. Zeus has been given away without Josh’s permission. He is microchipped and will be missing his master and his young family.
Please share this with all your friends Canberra is a small place and we are hopeful of finding him. We think he may have been given to a public servant , maybe someone in the Tax office but we don’t really know. There are no accusations being directed at the person who may have been given him/ taken him and and any information will be treated in the strictest of confidence.
Please contact Josh urgently if you know where this lovely boy might be.]
Phone number in the link:
http://the-riotact.com/beautiful-zeus-has-been-given-away-without-his-owners-permission/109752?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook
@bencubby: For purposes of comparison, here’s a rundown on South Korea’s ETS – more coverage and higher price than Aus. http://t.co/YMXsj575xZ
Waiting for the drones that defended the CT to come out of the woodwork. No more foaming from you now that “Greatest Moral Challenge of our Generation” Kevin will make it completely impotent. Perhaps the media can now stop massaging Kevin’s many egos and actually asking him a few questions like where is the money coming from to plug the billions of dollars in the budget once the gravy tax is neutered. How about what Kevin will do when the watermelons block the changes in the senate as they have indicated they will. Or perhaps why the ALP this the price of electricity will fall when the ALP has been spouting shit for the last 3 years that dropping the CT will no drop prices.
Of course ask Kevin about why the ALP lied continuously for the last 3 years about how the CT was having absolutely no impact on consumers but now its a cost of living matter (are they admitting that the CT actually increased the costs of living that they dismissed before ?). Also, what is Kevin going to do with the industry assistance (essentially hush money to stop businesses complaining about the CT) packages. How are they going to suddenly survive and places like Whyalla exist (perhaps that moron Emerson can do another dance to explain his hypocrisy).
Also, perhaps they can ask Kevin how much longer do we need to wait (and continue to see deaths at sea) before proper border protection that isn’t beholden to other countries actually gets implemented in what is a sovereign country (Australia). No one seems to ask why Kevin panders to outside interests for political gain here but lets his own country down with continued talk/spam-fests.
Oh, well, as long as Kevie’s multiple personalities are posting photos on about him getting razor cuts we all know we are in good and capable hands.
The Coalition is unlikely to have a worse period than the last two weeks so if Labor doesn’t end up with a 2PP lead of some magnitude then I’m not sure they will get one. The damage in QLD following the pay grab fiasco should be sufficient by itself without other issues like the Abbott expense claims and the NPC no show.
I expect Labor to be in front and probably around the 52/48 area.
GG – haha! Well, I’m not going to predict outrageous results for the sake of it! I guess I was hedging bets a bit wasn’t I.
I will say 51-49 Coalition.
Isn’t the whole point of putting microchips in dogs so that you can find them when they go missing?
mari:
Sounds like you’re having fun. 🙂
tbw,
You don’t strike me as a particularly happy soul. But jottings can be deceiving.
Perhaps you need a hug.
Here’s an e-hug from me.
CONFESSIONS
Sure am, back to Edinburgh today, hopefully the grandsons and I will go down to York when I come back from visiting in England
Interesting re weather in Scotland another great day today
Psephos,
An interesting concept that can possibly be applied to politicians who can’t seem to manage their travel expenses.
Imagine the queue for citizens who get to inject a long needle in to the back side of our ruling class politicians. Could be a way to reducee the budget deficit if they auction off the privilege.
in case any one misunderstood i am not talking
polls 55/45 now but later
slowly we want to keep abbott intact
Sean – for your benefit I will post this again. You really do have the memory span of a goldfish.
Gillard certainly ruled out a carbon tax prior to the 2010 election. She told Network Ten news, in a live cross from Brisbane, that “there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead”.
A few days later, in an interview with The Australian newspaper, she is quoted as saying: “I don’t rule out the possibility of legislating a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, a market-based mechanism…. I rule out a carbon tax.”
On July 1 2012, a carbon pricing mechanism began in Australia.
The carbon price requires big polluters to use permits for each tonne of carbon they emit, acting as an incentive to reduce carbon emissions.
UTS Law Professor Natalie Stoianoff, the director of the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy at University of Western Australia David Pannell, and joint director for the Centre for Energy and Environmental Markets at UNSW Iain MacGill.
They all said the carbon price most closely resembles a tax
“Clever word play took one politician… to say this is a big new tax,” said MacGill. It was “easy to call it a tax and have people comprehend that”.
Abbott said Gillard broke her pre-election promise ‘there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead’.
On literal truth, the experts say the carbon pricing mechanism is not technically a tax – although it tastes, sounds, and smells like one for the first three years.
Prior to the election, Gillard distinguished between a carbon pricing mechanism and a tax, and this is what she has essentially delivered.
gg
Oh! Please desist it would be more than I could bear!
[Gillard certainly ruled out a carbon tax prior to the 2010 election. She told Network Ten news, in a live cross from Brisbane, that “there will be no carbon tax under the government I lead”.]
Yes, this was a mistake.
At least the argument over whether the tax is a tax is somewhat obsolete now.
Paradoxically, I would prefer that the polls stay at 50/50 until the election campaign proper starts, because I do not want the Coalition dumping Abbott 🙂
Speaking of Tony, I just saw one of his supposed positive ads on TV – laughable.
Is politics the only reason Rudd is moving to an early transition to the ETS?
Seems to me the most likely programs to be dumped are things such as the clean energy finance corporation. Which to me would be a tragedy. Does anyone have any sensible notions of what else would be cut?
And whether at this stage it really changes people’s minds about who they want to vote for and why?
Now, Rudd has proven a master of “messing with their heads”.. great political tactics. This might be one of them. But I really don’t think its good policy.