Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll is an especially bad one for Labor, coming in at 58-42 for the Coalition from primary votes of 30% for Labor and 49% for the Coalition.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll is an especially bad one for Labor, coming in at 58-42 for the Coalition from primary votes of 30% for Labor and 49% for the Coalition. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 28% and up three on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 37% and down one to 53%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 40-39 to 43-35.

Also:

• JWS Research has conducted automated phone polls in the Melbourne seats of Isaacs, Chisholm and Melbourne Ports, each with a sample of around 500 respondents and a margin of error of slightly below 4.5%. These point to a huge swing in Isaacs, a small swing in Melbourne Ports, and no swing in Chisholm, with an improbably large gap separating the first from the last. Isaacs: Liberal 45%, Labor 35%, Greens 8%, 55-45 to Liberal (15.4% swing to Liberal). Melbourne Ports: Labor 49%, Liberal 41%, Greens 6%, 55.2-44.8 to Labor (2.7% swing to Liberal). Chisholm: Labor 51%, Liberal 42%, Greens 3%, 55.6-44.4 to Labor (0.2% swing to Liberal).

• Essential Research has Labor regaining the primary vote point they lost last week, now at 35%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8% and two-party preferred steady at 55-45. Other findings suggest support for higher renewable energy targets (11% think the current 20% target by 2020 too high, 33% about right, and 40% not high enough), wind farms (76% support, 11% oppose), compulsory vaccination (87% support, 7% oppose), the right of childcare centres to refuse children who have not been vaccinated (78% support, 11% oppose), and a ban on advertising of sports betting (78% support, 12% oppose), and opposition to privatisation of the ABC and SBS (15% support, 57% oppose). Fifty-two per cent think it important that Australia have a car manufacturing industry against 35% not important; 61% favoured a proposition that “with government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” against 22% for “there is no future for manufacturing in Australia and government support would be a waste of money”.

• Morgan has Labor down two points on the primary vote to 31.5%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 45.5% and 9.5%. The move against Labor is softened by preferences on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition lead shifts from 54.5-45.5 to 55-45. On previous election preferences, the change is from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,504 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. [1976
    daretotread

    Centre

    If you are saying that they should have reached an amicable agreement for Rudd to transfer power at an appropriate time I agree 100%. Rudd asked for time to turn the polls around – a VERY REASONABLE request. Gillard was told by backers now or never and did the deed. Foolish for her and the public will never forgive her.]

    Whatever else may be said of PMJG, deposing Kev was without any question an act of great leadership. She must have known it would attract plenty of criticism – much of it highly personal – and yet she acted for the good of the country, the Government and the party. For this alone she deserves our commendation and enduring support. She certainly has mine.

  8. A local councillor who opposes this referendum is ‘decimating’ their council, to borrow a term.
    The referendum won’t constitutionally entrench local govt let alone give any national say over its structure or composition. It’s just restoring a clear ability of the Cth to direct funding to local govt projects without having to negotiate with 9 state intermediaries – a working assumption that is decades old.

    FWIW the Chaplaincy decision casts doubt on Cth funding of universities.

  9. tlbd
    I am up to episode seven of Game of Thrones.

    No wonder abbbot is loser, he is the man who brings his Downton Abbey tapes to the GoT convention.

  10. So defying homophobia and sexism, and standing up against homophobic comments and defending sexism from attempts to debase its common meaning means I am equated with religion?

    Right. I’ve seen it all now.

  12. Fil R…: “re 2299 – you’re starting to sound like Eddie McGuire!”

    Eddie talks as if he’s got both cheeks full of “Four ‘n Twenty” pie.

    On that note, I withdraw from further comment that may take me into dangerous waters!!!!??

  13. Oakeshott Country
    [
    Powerful ad from the unions]
    The OO had an anticipatory article today about he trade unions launching an ad campaign from tonight. Apparently Rupert does not approve.

  15. Enjoying the Howard faux ‘golden years’ is a brave admission.
    Says it all about decent character, i.e the lack of.

  17. Gotta love the whinge a few pages back about Australia’s ‘harsh’ compulsory voting system.

    I suppose compulsory taxation and education and (gasp) census forms are even greater outrages.

    Such a crippling blow to freedom: having your name on a comprehensive democratic roll (Kiwi law has that compulsion, another Antipodean totalitarian state).

    And having to rock up to your local school hall one Saturday every 3-4 years to scribble your disdain on a form…

  20. Briefly

    I fail to see how undermining your boss and taking his job is an act of “leadership.”

    If there had been great matters of state and principle that drove Gillard to take on the PM role then that is leadership. Simply wanting the job cos the other guy is a bit mean sometime is NOT leadership.

    It worries me that so many labor people seems NOT to understand the difference.

    Now as to knowing of the hostility that would follow, while anyone rational would agree with you, in reality I think the kiddies that surround the PM actually believed that there would NOT be much damage. Stupid I grant you, but I think that Gillard and co totally UNDERESTIMATED the degree of public hostility.Not brave and noble, simply dumb and lazy.

  21. graeme
    People against compulsory voting should be whipped through the streets with party-advertising corflutes.

  26. daretotread

    [I fail to see how undermining your boss and taking his job is an act of “leadership.”]
    Ya mean like Abbott vs Turnbull ??

  29. I do not know what went on nor why with the ALP leadership change. I also do not care. I assume to get to the top of the ALP tree takes guts and if you do not have it, you do not stay there. Losing your job is a hazard of office and as long as the ALP has the policies I want, I don’t care if they choose their leader by vote, drawing straws or fight to the death.

  30. [1769
    Socrates

    HEllo again. The GDP numbers out today are not great, but not aweful.]

    The accounts are weak…no hiding from it.

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/06/goldman-adds-july-rate-cut-on-weak-demand/

    [More importantly, it is hard to ignore that if we exclude the trade sector, gross national expenditure has now contracted for 2 consecutive quarters revealing a GNE recession. Only for a sharp fall in imports and the strength in iron ore volume growth the Australian economy would likely have contracted in 1Q13.

    The real concern for the household sector is that compensation of employees expanded just 0.2% qoq as slowing wage rates combined with weak employment and hours worked to constrain income growth. Household disposable income growth did expand 1.2% qoq, however, government handouts contributed 0.3% (which are one off), 0.2% is gross operating surplus of the housing stock (which is a book entry rather than a cash item), and 0.5% is attributed to gross mixed income (which in Australia is mostly farm income).]

    The underlying picture is that unusual seasonal adjustment to exports and declining imports of capital goods delivered a positive GDP number for the quarter. In other respects, the accounts signal contraction…and that is what we are likely to see. WA is already basically contracting.

  31. [I fail to see how undermining your boss and taking his job is an act of “leadership.”]

    Agreed. The Member for Griffith has a lot to answer for when it comes to his behaviour these past few years.

  33. [2320
    daretotread

    Briefly

    I fail to see how undermining your boss and taking his job is an act of “leadership.”

    If there had been great matters of state and principle that drove Gillard to take on the PM role then that is leadership.]

    as indeed there were 🙂

  35. This little black duck

    That Ferns vs Diamonds game was and is the most heart stopping game of any sport I’ve ever watched. Icing on the cake being the “right” team won. 🙂

  39. It was on Sydney 9. Young family can’t get a mortgage because tradesman husband is employed on short term contract

  45. [NSW never won under “nobody’s puppet, nobody’s girlie” Judy Jetson]

    The last time they won was under our current Foreign Minister!

    Maybe the Blues just need a good book club?

  46. Briefly

    Those great matters???
    GFC – er no Rudd managed that
    AS – lurch to the right. Hmmm not sure it is great matter of state
    Mining tax backdown to jump to the beck and call of Gina and the AWU. Matter of money not state.

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