ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition in Victoria

The monthly Victorian poll from ReachTEL shows a solid drop for Denis Napthine’s government after last month’s honeymoon spike. But Labor’s primary vote is down too, and the minor party numbers tell a confusing story.

ReachTEL has published a poll which has been widely interpreted as an end to Denis Napthine’s honeymoon, with the Coalition primary vote down from 49.5% to 43.6% since the poll of last month. However, the poll also has Labor down from 35.3% to 32.5%. It appears that ReachTEL is picking up some static in its “others” reading, which (combining “others” with the fairly negligible Katter’s Australian Party vote) has progressed over three months from 6.0% to 3.8% to 10.4%. The balance of the major party decline has been absorbed by the Greens, who go from 11.5% to 13.6%. On my own calculation of two-party preferred based on preferences from the previous election, the Coalition’s lead narrows from 54-46 to 52-48.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

21 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Coalition in Victoria”

  1. There is a state Newspoll due at the end of this month. Newspoll has been less favourable to the Coalition than Reachtel has in its short period of existence.

    Then we shall see what has happened to the honeymoon.

  2. Prime Minister Julia Gillard slew the Opposition in Question Time today. I enjoyed watching that.

  3. Good to see.

    On another note, the “Order in the House” feature on the right sidebar incorrectly lists Nicola Roxon (Member for Gellibrand) as a member of the Nationals. She is, as most would know, a member of the ALP.

  4. absolutetwaddle @3

    “This conservative blight on our fair state cannot come to an end too soon.”

    Absolutely.. We are in serious need of a few more desalination plants and Myki fiascos.

  5. Myki works, and has always worked, just fine for me morpheus. Sooner or later we needed a smart card system and now it’s here so I suggest you get used to it. Indeed the Liberals seem to fully support the system as it stands now, with little nigglings here and there about the issuing of short term tickets. Battle won for Labor I’d say.

    As for the desal plant, if you hate it so much when the next drought comes you can live off bottled water. It’s a necessity and an expensive one, our state is prone to droughts that are historically speaking becoming more severe and long-lived. I dread the next one.

  6. Myki cost a ridiculous amount compared to the similar Smartrider in Perth. And apparently if I go to Melbourne on holidays, not having one is going to cause me hassles if I try to catch a tram. (Serious question, as I plan on going there later this year: is there a way to catch trams around the inner suburbs that doesn’t involve me buying a Myki card I’ll only use for a week?)

  7. Sorry Myki is the biggest embaresement I have ever seen in my life $1.5 billion dollars for farking nothing. I have caught the train twice using this frustrating piece of shite once overcharged! can you do anything about it no…the station master acknowledged this gave me a number to call or I could go to southern cross to get my money refunded…the second time the credit card recharge didn’t work. I just get angry thinking about it………ALP fail fail fail!!

  8. [ A zone 1 weekly myki pass costs $35. Hopefully this doesn’t bankrupt you.:) ]

    The cost isn’t the issue. There should be a cash-ticket option for people who only visit Melbourne occasionally. If I lived there I’d certainly buy one and use it, but if I only go there for a week every couple of years, it’s a waste of plastic and of my time (I’ve got better things to do on holidays than fiddle around with another city’s smartcard).

    Another thing that absolutely floored me about the Melbourne ticketing system a few years ago: apparently zone 3 got abolished because having to deal with that many different zones and ticket types ended up in the too-hard basket. Smartider works fine, and we have 9 zones! It even automatically flips the daily cost from multiple 2 hr tickets to a day ticket if it ends up cheaper.

    Example: I used to live in Armadale (outer SE suburbs, not quite as pretty as the one near Toorak). I caught the bus to Armadale station in the morning, which was a 1 zone ticket. Cathing the train from there to Perth automatically changed that into a 4 zone fare, instead of being charged separately, and catching another bus to UWA at the other end was free. Total cost: one 4 zone ticket. Then in the afternoon, I’d do the same journey in reverse. As a daily ticket is cheaper than two 4 zone tickets, my day’s travel on the card got recalculated as if I’d bought a daily ticket that morning. Then anywhere else I went in the evening was free. The system works, and has done for years, but I get the feeling Myki would explode if you tried that on it.

  9. Bird of paradox

    Example: I used to live in Armadale (outer SE suburbs, not quite as pretty as the one near Toorak). I caught the bus to Armadale station in the morning, which was a 1 zone ticket. Cathing the train from there to Perth automatically changed that into a 4 zone fare, instead of being charged separately, and catching another bus to UWA at the other end was free. Total cost: one 4 zone ticket. Then in the afternoon, I’d do the same journey in reverse. As a daily ticket is cheaper than two 4 zone tickets, my day’s travel on the card got recalculated as if I’d bought a daily ticket that morning. Then anywhere else I went in the evening was free. The system works, and has done for years, but I get the feeling Myki would explode if you tried that on it.

    Hear hear. When Smartrider was first introduced here, I thought it’d be a wash. Instead, the experience has been mostly positive – and the automatic, retroactive ticket type adjustment is certainly a boon.

  10. myki also automatically adjusts to the lowest fare depending on usage throughout the day. It’s extremely simple to use and I have noticed the people who bitch and moan about it the most are those who use it the least. I use it several times a day pretty much every day of the week (since the very beginning of the roll-out) and have NEVER encountered a problem. Some people have, sure. Some of those problems are myki’s fault. But there is no faultless ticketing system in operation anywhere and for the vast majority of commuters myki does the job swimmingly.

    It’s pretty simple – touch on and off on all train and bus services, touch on for trams (only need to touch off if traveling entirely in zone 2 on trams). Hold the card still on the myki reader for 0.6 seconds (some people are too impatient for this and INSIST on waving or swiping like an idiot, I want to throttle these people as they always exclaim “BLOODY MYKI” as they do so). That’s it. That’s all you need to know. Not rocket science but the way people carry on you’d think operating the card requires a PhD in Astrophysics.

    Anyway…

    Zone 3 was abolished before myki was introduced – why I do not know, but I assume it had something to do with MPs getting lots if complaints about the unjustifiably expensive fares being foisted on their constituents who lived in those areas.

  11. [Zone 3 was abolished before myki was introduced – why I do not know, but I assume it had something to do with MPs getting lots if complaints about the unjustifiably expensive fares being foisted on their constituents who lived in those areas.]

    Zone 3 was abolished around the same time as Vline fares were cut by 25 percent across the board. From memory this was just before the 2006 election so make of that what you will.

  12. Tram system ticketing a kind of Myki madness
    ________________________________
    I was travelling recently on a tram in St Kilda Road when a party of US visitors ..cash in hand …boarded the tram to go to a
    function in Carlton at the Uni…no way could they get a single trip ticket..it’s just not on !

    At ihe next stop the ticket inspectors boarded and the US visitors were in deep trouble
    No way to buy a ticket…the inspectors said they would have to get off or be fined,,,they departed in haste and anger and said they would try to hire a taxi…in the morning peak in the traffic ioj St LKikda Road ????
    Good luck on that one
    Marvellous Melbourne indeed
    thanks John Brumby…no wonder Labor lost…and Peter Bachelor the Minister in charge was still defending the system to polling day… and beyond …and the Libs retained the same system too

  13. It should be noted the lack of a short-term ticket option is entirely the Lib’s doing – if Brumby was reelected those hapless American tourists would have been able to buy a daily or two-hour ticket. But yeah, boo Brumby! Booooo!

    I would also note that trams are absolutely plastered with conspicuous advice to the effect of “YOU CANNOT BUY TICKETS ON BOARD”. It takes maybe a full five minutes of research to learn the basics of a city’s public transport system, maybe those tourists should have done so?

  14. So if you want to have a family trip you need to buy 4 myki cards and put money on all of them so some $40 to have just sitting there. Or if grandparents have the kids and want to go out for day they also have to buy myki cards and put money on them that will just sit there. And the moron that decided on touch off should never ever work again

  15. If your problem is the lack of a temporary ticket, you can blame the Libs for taking that option off the table and giving no reason for doing so. I myself support the option of having a short-term ticket available, and believe once this conservative rabble is replaced it will be.

    However irritating this is, a one-off purchase of $10 or so for a myki isn’t quite an unreasonable impost (considering the cost of the daily zone 1 metcard was approaching $8 at the time it was abolished). If you feel it is just such a hassle you simply can’t bear it, drive. Problem solved.

    Also the grandparents in your situation would have likely received senior concessionary mykis in the mail during the roll-out phase which entitles them to half-price travel on trains, trams and buses in all zones during the week (and free on weekends). If they didn’t recieve one, they can rock up to any premium train station and get one for free (or in some circumstances, $3 or $7). Oh the humanity! It’s just all so difficult!:(

  16. And centaur, explain to me how exactly a smart card system in a zone-tiered pricing system is supposed to work without requiring people to touch off. Are we supposed to work on the honour system or something? Of just charge everyone a flat fare regardless of where they’re going, how long it takes or how far away it is?

    Can you see the holes in your random touch-off hate? Because I’m happy to spell them out for you.:D

  17. And drive I do…rock up to a premium station? just like if you get overcharged you have to go southern cross to get it sorted…You know how many grade separations could have been payed for with 1.5billion? So please explain how your life has improved with this? I am giving you plenty of reasons why it is worse. why it is a further inconvenience, why it has achieved nothing.

  18. Myki has ensured I always pay the cheapest fare, don’t have to carry change around to buy tickets on trams, gets automatically refilled without me doing a damn thing and if I were to lose it I can get the entirety of the value on it shifted to a new card. Try doing that with a yearly metcard!

    So yes on the whole it has made my public transport ticketing experience better. As for the price tag, did any of my taxes rise because if it? No. Doesn’t bother me at all and it had to be done eventually to bring us up to scratch with other world cities. Mourn metcard all you like, over here in the 21st century things aren’t so bad though.:)

    I notice you didn’t expand on your fantastic psychic “no touch off” ticketing system. I am waiting for this, avidly.

  19. Also premium stations are scattered throughout the train network. There are 80 of them, and new ones are being assigned currently. Balaclava Station on the Sandringham line, for example, is being upgraded now.

    So no, you don’t have to go to Southern Cross to get the concession tickets (OR to get a replacement, this can be done online or again, at any staffed/premium station). Premium stations are likely available within three stops of you… which you would know if you used public transport with any regularity.

    Again, the people who bitch the loudest about it know the least. Interesting.

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