Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll is an especially bad one for Labor, coming in at 58-42 for the Coalition from primary votes of 30% for Labor and 49% for the Coalition.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll is an especially bad one for Labor, coming in at 58-42 for the Coalition from primary votes of 30% for Labor and 49% for the Coalition. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 28% and up three on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 37% and down one to 53%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 40-39 to 43-35.


JWS Research has conducted automated phone polls in the Melbourne seats of Isaacs, Chisholm and Melbourne Ports, each with a sample of around 500 respondents and a margin of error of slightly below 4.5%. These point to a huge swing in Isaacs, a small swing in Melbourne Ports, and no swing in Chisholm, with an improbably large gap separating the first from the last. Isaacs: Liberal 45%, Labor 35%, Greens 8%, 55-45 to Liberal (15.4% swing to Liberal). Melbourne Ports: Labor 49%, Liberal 41%, Greens 6%, 55.2-44.8 to Labor (2.7% swing to Liberal). Chisholm: Labor 51%, Liberal 42%, Greens 3%, 55.6-44.4 to Labor (0.2% swing to Liberal).

Essential Research has Labor regaining the primary vote point they lost last week, now at 35%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8% and two-party preferred steady at 55-45. Other findings suggest support for higher renewable energy targets (11% think the current 20% target by 2020 too high, 33% about right, and 40% not high enough), wind farms (76% support, 11% oppose), compulsory vaccination (87% support, 7% oppose), the right of childcare centres to refuse children who have not been vaccinated (78% support, 11% oppose), and a ban on advertising of sports betting (78% support, 12% oppose), and opposition to privatisation of the ABC and SBS (15% support, 57% oppose). Fifty-two per cent think it important that Australia have a car manufacturing industry against 35% not important; 61% favoured a proposition that “with government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” against 22% for “there is no future for manufacturing in Australia and government support would be a waste of money”.

Morgan has Labor down two points on the primary vote to 31.5%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 45.5% and 9.5%. The move against Labor is softened by preferences on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition lead shifts from 54.5-45.5 to 55-45. On previous election preferences, the change is from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,504 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. 9Newspoll: Primary: 30 ALP 49 LNP – 2PP: 58-42 – PM: Gillard 35 Abbott 43 #pmlive #auspol ]

    Let’s just give the country over to Rupert and George right now.

  2. If the country was economically on the skids or the Government was full of scandals or the alternative were outstanding this would make sense.

  3. So just as My Say predicted… Newspoll delayed because the result is bad for the coalition.

    Oh sh1t….. wait…

    Trend continues. Newspoll released on Sunday Night = bad for Labor

    Newspoll released late on Monday Night = bad for Labor

  4. Ford closing is a plausible reason for this movement.

    Maybe Deb was right to call into question a seat like Corio

  5. Stutchbury doesn’t believe climate change modelling.

    The editor of the Fin Review, ladies and gentlemen.

  6. Denialism of fluoridation?

    Oh wait, we already have numpty Liberal MPs who deny the benefits of fluoridation.

  7. [Stutchbury doesn’t believe climate change modelling.]

    Awful isn’t it?

    How did we get here? Why are these dinosaurs still in positions of influence in today’s Australia?

  8. [How did we get here? Why are these dinosaurs still in positions of influence in today’s Australia?]

    The Tea Party have arrived and set up camp within the LNP.

  9. That Isaacs swing would translate to about 14 seats JUST IN VICTORIA!

    Yikes, that one is really out of left field, most of us thought the ALP would just lost a couple of seats in Vic, not 14.

    NSW, on the other hand, is a whole different story….

  10. Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Monday, June 3, 2013 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    not a good newspoll. I am getting out of the way of the troll festival.

    Here here.

  11. [shellbell
    Posted Monday, June 3, 2013 at 10:15 pm | PERMALINK
    Linda Burney should announce she is challenging Robertson for head of the NSW ALP.]

    Does Linda Burney have factional support?

    That is all that matters, the rest is just smoke and mirrors…

  12. Of course we are not really at 58-42 (my aggregate went up to 55.4 and I suspect the others will be 55s to low 56s.) There’s a couple of points of sample error in that one most likely. But no one should be surprised the government has gone down after the electoral funding farce. I’m not saying it caused the drop but anyone expecting 53-47 was being silly.

    Yes there are issues on which the Coalition is ridiculous and stupid but out there in voterland no-one cares about those issues and the polls have been pointing that out for years.

  13. David Flint is a questioner on today’s Qanda whingeing about accountability. David Flint!

    What’s that term for when a person turns inside-out and starts feeding upon itself?

  14. Anyone have info on the commissioning source if any for the Isaacs poll or is it just one JWS felt like doing?

  15. Sean Tisme

    Australia is in the top 15 greenhouse emitters in the world and in the top 5 per capita emitters. Are you seriously suggesting is doesn’t matter what Australia does? The carbon price is part of international action that despite the BS from Abbott, Hunt and Murdoch media is happening. Since the introduction of the carbon price, emissions from electricity generation have fallen by about 9%. Carbon trading is the most economically efficient way to get emissions reduction over the next four decades and beyond – we’ll need to reduce emissions by about 80% by 2050. So, to answer you ignorant question, the carbon price is our contribution to a long-term international solution. The COALitions Direct inAction policy has almost no chance of achieving even a 5% reduction by 2020 that will last for decades and is going to cost 5-10 times more. If the cheap emissions abatement options that Direct Action imply are out there, then the carbon price and trading schemes will snap them up more efficiently that having bureaucrats and politicians picking winners. Abbott dismantling the carbon price will be a victory for the fossil fuel lobby internationally and is why the libs are so cashed up and backed by the MSM at present. The fact that a debate in parliament last week where the Fibs were totally exposed on this did not get reported anywhere says it all.

  16. The purported 15% swing in isaacs is even more interesting than the newspoll result. If these swings are for real where do you sandbag? Swings even close to this would indicate labor carnage in victoria not seen since 1990.

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