Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll is an especially bad one for Labor, coming in at 58-42 for the Coalition from primary votes of 30% for Labor and 49% for the Coalition.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll is an especially bad one for Labor, coming in at 58-42 for the Coalition from primary votes of 30% for Labor and 49% for the Coalition. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 28% and up three on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 37% and down one to 53%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 40-39 to 43-35.

Also:

JWS Research has conducted automated phone polls in the Melbourne seats of Isaacs, Chisholm and Melbourne Ports, each with a sample of around 500 respondents and a margin of error of slightly below 4.5%. These point to a huge swing in Isaacs, a small swing in Melbourne Ports, and no swing in Chisholm, with an improbably large gap separating the first from the last. Isaacs: Liberal 45%, Labor 35%, Greens 8%, 55-45 to Liberal (15.4% swing to Liberal). Melbourne Ports: Labor 49%, Liberal 41%, Greens 6%, 55.2-44.8 to Labor (2.7% swing to Liberal). Chisholm: Labor 51%, Liberal 42%, Greens 3%, 55.6-44.4 to Labor (0.2% swing to Liberal).

Essential Research has Labor regaining the primary vote point they lost last week, now at 35%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8% and two-party preferred steady at 55-45. Other findings suggest support for higher renewable energy targets (11% think the current 20% target by 2020 too high, 33% about right, and 40% not high enough), wind farms (76% support, 11% oppose), compulsory vaccination (87% support, 7% oppose), the right of childcare centres to refuse children who have not been vaccinated (78% support, 11% oppose), and a ban on advertising of sports betting (78% support, 12% oppose), and opposition to privatisation of the ABC and SBS (15% support, 57% oppose). Fifty-two per cent think it important that Australia have a car manufacturing industry against 35% not important; 61% favoured a proposition that “with government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” against 22% for “there is no future for manufacturing in Australia and government support would be a waste of money”.

Morgan has Labor down two points on the primary vote to 31.5%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 45.5% and 9.5%. The move against Labor is softened by preferences on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition lead shifts from 54.5-45.5 to 55-45. On previous election preferences, the change is from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,504 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. [joe carli
    Posted Monday, June 3, 2013 at 10:19 pm | PERMALINK
    I repeat..: Newspoll is absurd…]

    This Newspoll is exactly on the Newspoll trendline since Oct 2012.

  2. Burney needs to speak up now to remind people that the Liberal party opposed the welcome to country being introduced into federal parliament.

  3. So we now have polling showing big swing in Issac yet viturally no movement in Chisholm

    Interesting and i can’t see the Liberals gaining 14 in Victoria without winning seats like Chisholm and Melbourne Ports.

  4. [the Isaacs poll]
    Unicorn!

    Anyone who thinks polls are not sponsored and made public selectively needs a cranial examination.

    Leaving that aside, who decides the questions and the order in which they ask?

  5. Bernardi has the hide to speak in favour of religious tolerance!

    Where’s that poll he put on his blog the other day about muslim immigration.

  6. JWS has ALP +6, +2 and -15 2PP cf last election in three seats. Wonder what their sample size for these is.

  7. Kevin Bonham @ 42

    There’s a couple of points of sample error in that one most likely.

    Which way? Not a very scientific statement Kevin!

  8. So chisholm and melb ports not moving but isaacs at 15% swing. All seems a tad odd. I wonder if jws sampled any other victorian seats. The problem with these seats is that they have quite disparate labor and liberal pockets and depending on the sample size the pollster may have hit one or another.

  9. Linda Burney beat me to it .. I was typing that she is showing amazing grace having to sit next to that clown and listening to the nonsense he is sprouting .. I want to throw something at him through the TV!

  10. Gauss@65

    Kevin Bonham @ 42

    There’s a couple of points of sample error in that one most likely.


    Which way? Not a very scientific statement Kevin!

    Yawn. What I was saying is that sample error is likely to have caused the Newspoll to be a couple of points over for the Coalition, as evidenced by the general trend of other recent polls (eg the 55 and 55.5 from other pollsters today and the recent trend in the mid 54s).

  11. C’mon, you psephologists…get your hands off of it and get a grip!…Mr. Bowe..Mr. Bonham…you’ve both been in this game for some while now…are you seriously believing that these Newspoll..polls..reflect the reality, when all we see, despite the best efforts to colour the LOTO AND the LNP. shadow bench in the best possible light, AND the PM. being feted with cheers and joy whenever she steps into the public (save one salami sanger..which she brushed off humerously!)..putting aside any “constructed conclusion” desired by the Newspoll group…Do these numbers, in your professional instinct, really reflect the reality?

  12. Roger McIntosh:

    I can’t say how I’d behave if I were in Burney’s shoes being sat next to that appalling man.

    He truly is odious.

  13. Every election brings up a seat that looks like it is swinging hard yet on the night the seat doesn’t move or goes the otherway

  14. Mexican

    Isaacs has huge labor vote in noble park or springvale and the libs do well in patterson lakes so the range is quite broad.

  15. [Do these numbers, in your professional instinct, really reflect the reality?]

    Do you get out at all joe carli?

    If you did, you wouldn’t be as shocked as you seem to be that the Australian electorate is waiting with baseball bats for the Gillard government.

    Remember- the consensus view here on PB was that it was better to go down the gurgler with Gillard than rise on Rudd’s back.

  16. [Do these numbers, in your professional instinct, really reflect the reality?]

    They reflect a reality that Labor is very unlikely to win the election. I don’t think they reflect a reality that they’ll lose by 58-42. If you look at the BludgerTrack charts, you’ll see that poll results scatter around the place. This is one of the results at the outer edge.

  17. Those results for Melbourne Ports and Chisholm make a nonsense of the Isaacs figures.

    If anything, they show a steady situation for Labor in Victoria.

  18. Probably a slight outlier but if it is, it’d only be hiding a 55-45 lead, which is still a huge loss.

    If it isn’t, two theories come to mind: the Victorian vote is dropping, as backed by the polls of those Victorian seats as well as a few rumours I have been hearing recently.

    or the recent narrative that the government has “given up” on winning the election that I have seen in commentary is actually resonating. In which case, the numbers will go berserk and will be endlessly painful for Labor.

    For now, I will go with the assumption that it’s a couple of points too friendly to the Coalition…

  19. Kevin Bonham @ 72

    Or the commencement of a breakout on the upside from the 56%- 44% to 54%- 46% range since Feb 13

  20. [They reflect a reality that Labor is very unlikely to win the election.]
    Say the polls. Any other entrails?

  21. [ This Newspoll is exactly on the Newspoll trendline since Oct 2012. ]

    On the NewsPoll trendline the ALP will be polling negative numbers by election day.

    Still, if you LNP trolls on here want to hoot’n’holler about a poll that is obviously a rogue, then feel free.

    But try and keep it down to a dull roar – I’m off to bed!

  22. Hard to see dreyfus losing isaacs but this was the stretch of melbourne that swung violently towards the libs in the 2010 state election. The voters have shown that can will vote for the libs. Whether they will in 2013 we have to wait and see.

  23. Confessions:

    I actually thought for a moment that we’d get through the program without a ridiculous statement from him. Once we heard from the audience questioner asking him to articulate his climate change views and the Dorothy Dix woman I was deeply disappointed but not surprised.

  24. This tweet says it all

    “@daveyk317: MT @Jackthelad1947: Linda speaks for Labor, Bernardi speaks for LNP. We have to choose in 3 months. #qanda Choose wisely #WakeUpAustralia”

  25. [Say the polls. Any other entrails?]

    There are no other entrails.

    [I don’t think Noble Park is in Issacs]

    Noble Park is in Isaacs. As you can see on the map accompanying my previous post, Patterson Lakes was the only booth the Liberals won in 2010.

  26. Gauss@83

    Kevin Bonham @ 72

    Or the commencement of a breakout on the upside from the 56%- 44% to 54%- 46% range since Feb 13

    Possible but much less likely. For one thing voting intention does not normally move that quickly without exceptionally good reason. There is no such thing as poll momentum; when a given poll jumps up it normally goes down again the next time. I think this is most likely a repeat of the 58 in late March which was shown to be over the top.

  27. This is no outlier I will give you the tip.

    The Labor Party can think long and hard about UNITY and even INTEGRITY (their good mate Eddie Obeid) in opposition

    AND

    to keep right away from the Greens! 😎

    The carbon tax and the constant Rudd v Gillard debacle is about to convert to PM :mrgreen: well done!

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