Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll is an especially bad one for Labor, coming in at 58-42 for the Coalition from primary votes of 30% for Labor and 49% for the Coalition.

The latest fortnightly Newspoll is an especially bad one for Labor, coming in at 58-42 for the Coalition from primary votes of 30% for Labor and 49% for the Coalition. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 28% and up three on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is steady on 37% and down one to 53%. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 40-39 to 43-35.

Also:

JWS Research has conducted automated phone polls in the Melbourne seats of Isaacs, Chisholm and Melbourne Ports, each with a sample of around 500 respondents and a margin of error of slightly below 4.5%. These point to a huge swing in Isaacs, a small swing in Melbourne Ports, and no swing in Chisholm, with an improbably large gap separating the first from the last. Isaacs: Liberal 45%, Labor 35%, Greens 8%, 55-45 to Liberal (15.4% swing to Liberal). Melbourne Ports: Labor 49%, Liberal 41%, Greens 6%, 55.2-44.8 to Labor (2.7% swing to Liberal). Chisholm: Labor 51%, Liberal 42%, Greens 3%, 55.6-44.4 to Labor (0.2% swing to Liberal).

Essential Research has Labor regaining the primary vote point they lost last week, now at 35%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8% and two-party preferred steady at 55-45. Other findings suggest support for higher renewable energy targets (11% think the current 20% target by 2020 too high, 33% about right, and 40% not high enough), wind farms (76% support, 11% oppose), compulsory vaccination (87% support, 7% oppose), the right of childcare centres to refuse children who have not been vaccinated (78% support, 11% oppose), and a ban on advertising of sports betting (78% support, 12% oppose), and opposition to privatisation of the ABC and SBS (15% support, 57% oppose). Fifty-two per cent think it important that Australia have a car manufacturing industry against 35% not important; 61% favoured a proposition that “with government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” against 22% for “there is no future for manufacturing in Australia and government support would be a waste of money”.

Morgan has Labor down two points on the primary vote to 31.5%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 45.5% and 9.5%. The move against Labor is softened by preferences on the respondent-allocated two-party preferred measure, on which the Coalition lead shifts from 54.5-45.5 to 55-45. On previous election preferences, the change is from 54.5-45.5 to 55.5-44.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,504 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. “@Tadlette: People need to remember Bernardi is trained by the Koch fossil fuel billionaires in USA – he’s not an unbiased commentator. #qanda”

  2. Are jws doing any other seats? A bruce holt or la trobe would be interesting to see if there was an outer suburban swing in the offing.

  3. ML. I thank you to know that I am quite aware of “the reality”..I abuse you don’t I?
    But so what..it matters not what i believe…it’s just that instinct and advanced age tell me that there is a skew in these numbers.
    “It’s the vibe!”

  4. William – just wondering if you could shed any light on Richard Farmers crikey Australian federal election indicator.

  5. With a 3% MOE it is just as likely to be the same old 45-55

    No there is a 5% chance that it is 45-55 and equally there is a 5% chance that it is 39-61

  6. zoidlord:

    Who is making jokes? I think the NBN Asbestos problem may well piss off the local voters and cause large swings away from the ALP.

    If one of the areas where this was a problem in Victoria was within the seat of Isaacs (or near there) then it is feasible to have a 16% swing against the ALP in that seat.

    I would be mightily pissed off if the NBN came to my street and flung asbestos into the air, leaving dust on my bins as has happened elsewhere.

  7. [No there is a 5% chance that it is 45-55 and equally there is a 5% chance that it is 39-61]

    I dont think that is correct.

  8. [it’s just that instinct and advanced age tell me that there is a skew in these numbers.]

    A skew in the numbers or your interpretation of them?

    Hmmmm….decisions, decisions….:devil:

  9. Not really surprised by the 2% shift although it is a little large.
    In the last two weeks there has been the electoral funding issue which hurt labor a little more than Abbott. Then there has been Ford which is huge.

  10. Mr. Bowe. I do agree that the election will be a close one…it reflects the polarisation in the country at this time…but i will be highly suprised, not to mention ; disapointed!, if the opp’n gain so great a majority as predicted.
    I commit that I am certainly optimistic enough to believe that Labor has the capacity to win the next election.

  11. The point is not whether this is an outlier, or part of the new trend, or part of a giant media conspiracy to confuse the voters into thinking that they don’t like Gillard, when they actually do like her! LOL 🙂

    As time ticks by things are getting worse for the ALP if anything……most definitely not better at any rate. The best case scenario for the ALP is that things are static at the catastrophic 55-45 historically bad 100-50 seat landslide loss territory rather than a 60-40 never heard of 120-30 loss territory…

  12. Kevin

    Not entirely sure about a shift etc. In Qld although it was clear that Labor would lose the huge shift happened in the last week leading to just 7 seats.

    I rather fear something similar is going to happen federally.

  13. Moira Kelly and the Gardens of Peace
    ________________________________

    Known for her humasnitarian work with badly deformed children ,Moira Kelly now plans a children’s garden of Peace in Gaza

    A former kids play-ground the Kelly project will give Gaza it’s first such park, with many other faciulities for kids and their perents

    Hopefully the Israelis will desist from it’s malicious destruction
    The project has the backing of some senior people from
    the Melbourne Botanical Gardens

  14. [Oakeshott Country
    Posted Monday, June 3, 2013 at 10:48 pm | PERMALINK
    With a 3% MOE it is just as likely to be the same old 45-55

    No there is a 5% chance that it is 45-55 and equally there is a 5% chance that it is 39-61]

    A 58-42 result with a 95% CI of 3% means that if 100 separate Newspolls were conducted this weekend, rather than just the one, 95 of them would have had Coalition TPP results in the 55% to 61% range.

    Is that right Kevin or WIlliam?

  15. joe carli: As I’ve said I think this Newspoll is over the top but I think the general position as shown across all polls taken together (which on my rough reckoning has the Coalition in mid-55s) is where it is at. An election held today, Labor would get 50 seats if lucky. Not sure it will get much better either.

    I think a lot of posters here who are Labor loyalists and strongly dislike the Coalition fail to see the many very obvious ways in which ordinary voters see this Government as a shambles and a joke and even dangerous. Some people here have the idea that the voters should be able to see what is wrong with the Coalition and see through it and that there is no way anyone with half a brain could vote L-NP. They ignore that many voters also see what is “wrong” with Labor and, coming from those voters’ own standpoints, decide that the Coalition has its flaws but Labor is not even in the game.

    I personally wouldn’t vote for the Coalition at the moment because of their social issue positions. But most voters unfortunately could not care less about that stuff. They are more likely to care about not being run by a government that infights hopelessly, breaks core commitments continually and is beholden to the Greens.

  16. It was a good episode of Q&A tonight – better than I was expecting. Even Cori Bernardi seemed to be rational and reasonable for much of the time – until the topic turned to Climate Change.

  17. ML. That is the weakness in your and many right-wing arguements..you have no rational arguements to put forward..only a sort of mean-spirited glee to wallow in.

  18. @kevin I know Abbott and the coalition are not perfect but at this stage I am going to vote for them to give them a chance. It wil be better then the current status quo

  19. [zoidlord
    Posted Monday, June 3, 2013 at 10:55 pm | PERMALINK
    @Mod Lib/110

    It’s Not NBN isssue.

    And stop claiming it is.]

    If the NBN is disturbing pits to connect the fibre and that process is releasing asbestos into the community, it very much is an NBN issue.

    You guys are going to have to come to terms with the fact that you might get away with spinning furiously during your ALP branch meetings, but you don’t get to alter reality to suit how you would prefer things to be.

  20. [Where would we be now if Abbott had won the last election?]

    Deep recession, at the verge of war with Indonesia, and laughed at across the globe.

  21. [If the NBN is disturbing pits to connect the fibre and that process is releasing asbestos into the community, it very much is an NBN issue.

    You guys are going to have to come to terms with the fact that you might get away with spinning furiously during your ALP branch meetings, but you don’t get to alter reality to suit how you would prefer things to be.]

    It is clearly Howard’s and Telstra’s fault, if Howard hadn’t f*cked up the privatisation of Telstra (and then the useless poll driven bast*rd wasted all the proceeds) then the pits and the copper lines would have been replaced 15 years ago. There is a difference between conservative and a moron who still thinks like it is 1980.

  22. [William – just wondering if you could shed any light on Richard Farmers crikey Australian federal election indicator.]

    I think it’s based on bookies’ odds.

    [A 58-42 result with a 95% CI of 3% means that if 100 separate Newspolls were conducted this weekend, rather than just the one, 95 of them would have had Coalition TPP results in the 55% to 61% range.]

    If you mean a “real world” result of 58-42 carries that implication, then yes. If you mean this particular poll result carries that implication, then no.

  23. Kevin you’ve summed it up there. We have the daily breathless reports here of how the government has done so well in QT and a disbelief that the electors can’t see it. My gut feeling of the public mood is that it is the same as before the NSW election. Western Sydney is gone as are the country seats – they may well end up with 9/50 in the state.

  24. @Mod Lib/135

    No it’s Telstra contractors that are disturbing the pits under the agreed agreement.

    Again stop Telling Fibs.

  25. Shellbell No. Labor should stop wasting our good women. Linda is doing a great job as Deputy Leader but let Robertson take us to what will be an unwinnable election. He wanted the job so badly that he can now work his butt off to win a few seats back in 2015. Linda will keep.

  26. They were level pegging before the announcement of the carbon tax.

    Gillard “no carbon tax under a government I lead”.

    How do stupid every day voters see that straight after being labelled a backstabber by OLD MEDIA?

  27. [Newspoll

    Gillard: Approve 28 (-3) Disapprove 62 (+3)]

    Impressive. No story in that, nothing to take away with that, no options to be considered.

    Just accelerate, because I am sure if you hit that cement wall fast enough you will break right through.

    Though….if it doesn’t give the mess will take 6 years to scrape up.

    Maybe they should Shanghai a redhead they can trust… 🙂

  28. [@wewantpaul war itch Indonesia? Please explain.]

    Abbot’s turn back the boats to Indonesia and Julie Bishop as FM. It is a recipe for disaster. My high school history teacher used to joke that Indonesia could invade Australia with rusty safety razors, and things have gone downhill since then.

  29. [@wewantpaul war itch Indonesia? Please explain.]

    Abbot’s turn back the boats to Indonesia and Julie Bishop as FM. It is a recipe for disaster. My high school history teacher used to joke that Indonesia could invade Australia with rusty safety razors, and things have gone downhill since then.

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