GhostWhoVotes reports the Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents which gave us state results on Saturday now brings us federal results, indicating a 59-41 Coalition lead in the state from a swing of about 4%. This compares with a 55-45 result in the last such poll in February, which seemed a little favourable to Labor at the time. On the primary vote, Labor is down five to 28% and the Coalition is steady on 46%.
There has also been Queensland state polling over the weekend from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which you can read all about here.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 34%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 55-45. Other questions find Joe Hockey leading Wayne Swan as more trusted to handle the economy 37-28, out from 35-32 before the budget; 43% believing Tony Abbott should accept the Gonski reforms against 34% who favour the existing model; 51% saying climate change is caused by humans against 35% opting for normal fluctuation; support on opposition for carbon pricing tied at 43% all, the most favourable result yet recorded; 39% favouring it against 29% for the Liberals’ “direct action” policy (at least with respect to the policies as described in the question); and only 26% believing Tony Abbott will fulfill his promise to remove both the mining and carbon taxes while keeping the carbon tax compensation measures.
The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up 1.5% to 33.5%, the Coalition steady on 45.5% and the Greens down half a point to 9.5%. Both respondent allocated and previous election two-party preferred measures have shifted from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5, providing further evidence that Morgan’s new methodology has resolved the inexplicable discrepancy between these measures which bedevilled the old face-to-face series (as well as its Labor bias).
davidwh@194
Their analysis was wrong on their first post, David. Hard to take them too seriously after that. It (their analysis) was so wrong that many people complained about it and yet they weaselled their way out of it and never actually acknowledging that their premise was ridiculous. The quote they refer to in that post was always directed at the employers not future governments yet they persisted with the stupid notion that somehow Labor claimed that no government of the future can undo what they’ve done.
Guytaur I just read the displayed items but didn’t bother going back into history. Facts are like love, it’s often in the eye of the beholder. However from what I read they give all political persuasions passes and fails.
I think if folks want to just read Labor all good/Coalition all bad or vice versa then there are plenty of places you can go to be “informed” I recommend IA for the Labor faithful and Menzies House for the Coalition faithful.
Boerwar, the economic losses in agriculture, horticulture, viticulture and fisheries resulting from climate change will probably exceed $1 trillion in discounted, net present value terms. When we start to factor in the costs of rebuilding urban infrastructure and services, and the losses to trade from damage elsewhere in the global economy, the total economic costs look absolutely mountainous.
It is just incomprehensible that the LNP – supposedly the party of wise economic management – are unable to appreciate this and instead oppose actions that would prevent these losses.
Before I go though I would share this pic sent to me by one of my twitter followers and also to send the Right Wingers on here crazy as it is so accurate 😀
https://twitter.com/SneddenTerry/status/338814740350525440/photo/1
by the way if anyone is wondering , no i am not talking about myself 🙂
davidwh
You are wrong. Facts are just that. Facts.
eg. A nuclear bomb is very destructive.
Facts do not have a political bias.
Guytaur then in that case there are precious few facts when politicians become involved. I’m more than happy to proceed on that basis.
[156
Battle Turkeys
I see that Cormann or Cory, I mix them up, has asked on his website for readers to say whether or not they would like to see muslim immigration stopped.
I would imagine that most people in Australia would not only want to see it stopped but wish it had never started. But of course their opinions on their own country are to be dismissed and ignored and the glorious multicultural future will continue to be imposed on them by the enlightened elite who know better than the grubby racist Australian people.]
This has to be one of the more alarming posts I’ve seen at PB. It’s not often we see overtly racist attitudes being paraded with such self assurance. This is a profound insult to the entire country. The Senator is an abomination.
davidwh
Political spin is political spin.
A fact checking site is not political spin. It is in fact purpoting to indo the spin.
A fact checking site by its very name has to be correct on the facts
[Australia’s leading scientific expert on the endangered Leadbeater’s possum has publicly lambasted the Victorian state government, claiming it is the first ever domestic administration to take “calculated actions” that it knew could wipe out a threatened species.
In a letter published in the respected journal Science, Prof David Lindenmayer, of the Australian National University, states that “government-sanctioned legal logging of the reserve system will significantly increase the chance of extinction of Leadbeater’s possum”.
The letter, co-authored by Hugh Possingham, of the University of Queensland, claims that a “substantial watering down” of logging industry regulations has led to a drastic loss of the Leadbeater’s possum’s natural habitat.
It is estimated that there are just 1,500 of the tiny possums in pockets of the central highland forests of Victoria, and there are fears they may become extinct within a decade if their habitat is not conserved.]
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/may/26/logging-pushing-possum-towards-extinction?utm_source=buffer&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Buffer&utm_content=buffer068cf
Guytaur there will always be grey areas when people start trying to un-pick political spin. No more important example in recent times is trying to un-pick exactly what message the PM was trying to deliver when she said those immortal words “there will be no carbon tax”. I don’t think we will ever get any sort of concensus on that issue.
I don’t see PolitiFact to be any different to a lot of other social media sites who try to un-pick political spin. At least they are targeting all sides of politics.
davidwh – I don’t care for public servant bashing, but even I thought it was incorrect to assess Jamie Briggs’ stupid comments about “gold plated coffee machines” as “pants on fire” – no reasonable person would assume that the coffee machines had to be literally gold plated for his stupid statement to be ‘true’ in the metaphorical way he obviously intended.
Having ranted for so long that “Labor is a bad Govt” and the economy is no better than Greece etc without the media challenging those statements the Liberals must now come up with policies. And those policies cannot even look like anything Labor has done or has in place. They have played the “bad govt” mantra to the point that they have no option but to have policies that are totally opposite to Labor.
Given that Australia’s economy is not even close to Greece etc the Liberals are now casting insults on Treasury to jusify theor own piss poor economic credentials and to try and cover up their lies about the Aust economy.
The Liberal policies by virtue of their own ranting must be opposite to Labor, no matter how damaging the policies will be for Australia
ST
“I don’t think ”
We now, we know.
davidwh
Welif politifact is doing its job it will conclude PMJG did not lie with tat statement.
Fact is there is no carbon tax to this very day.
A fixed price is not a tax. The lie by the Abbott camp became awkward when the treaty was signed with the EU. It pointed to the fact the price was then a traded commodity in a trading market. Thats not a tax in anyway.
Lizzie
The Liberal extinctionists just hate nature and eat climate. They can’t help themselves.
Hmmm Gremlins in that last post. I did type “well if” as my first two words for example
Lizzie
If Naptime will not listen to Possingham and Lindenmayer then he is a science hater as well.
So, when is Politifact doing ‘Carbon dioxide is weightless’.
Guytaur – the funny thing is the discussion on politifact on the carbon tax ‘lie’ basically agrees with you (and me). I have no problem with the substance of their long form answer, just their final assessment.
Their final judgment came down to “the impression of the average punter”, which is a very strange way of assessing it.
ie because the average punter wasn’t completely on top of the nuance of the time, the facts don’t matter, just what people “feel” about it.
I can sort of see where they’re coming from, but they do seem to be setting themselves up for problems by being absolutely literal pedantic in some cases (“gold plated” has to be literally gold plated and “can’t be stripped away” is false because some future government can change legislation …), and then turning around in other cases and saying “well, literal facts don’t matter, it’s what the average punter’s impression is…”, which almost defeats the point of having an independent assessment.
A consistent approach might help, or perhaps a more complex assessment than a one-dimensional pants-on-fire to true scale.
Just leaving for a flight back to Adelaide after spending a glorious boys weekend in Melbourne. How I wish that the ALP maybe like Adelaide yesterday, down 5 goals with 10 minutes to go and only in the last 20 seconds do they get across the line. Is it possible for the ALP to do the same? I can only hope.
Briefly
‘It is just incomprehensible that the LNP – supposedly the party of wise economic management – are unable to appreciate this and instead oppose actions that would prevent these losses.’
It is not incomprehensible at all. The Liberals have a leader who thinks that climate science is crap; 66% of Liberals think that 97% of climate scientists are wrong. Add ‘Greed is good’ and intergenerational selfishness to the mix and it is entirely comprehensible that the Liberals would not give a rat’s arse.
Guytaur your #215 highlights my point about facts. I think there are many people who do not agree with you on your fact assertion.
If you want “balanced” coverage I can tell you about how both parties are run by lizard people.
Kirky
I assume you are an Adelaidean so why don’t you come along to the PB SA Chapter luncheon on Saturday 8 June.
BTW Just HOW GOOD was that recovery by the Crows!!
[This has to be one of the more alarming posts I’ve seen at PB. It’s not often we see overtly racist attitudes being paraded with such self assurance. This is a profound insult to the entire country. The Senator is an abomination.]
Politics of fear exploited by the Party of fear with a ‘free press’ owned and operated by fear mongers at the vanguard.
Insulted or frightened?
The leadership challenge.
BK, more than happy to. Where was it?
[I see that Cormann or Cory, I mix them up, has asked on his website for readers to say whether or not they would like to see muslim immigration stopped.]
Cormann is an immigrant, obviously the type who arrives and then starts to tell the rest of us who we should and should not allow into the place. How gracious of him to instruct us poor, ignorant colonial types on who is or isn’t suitable to join us.
It’s a bit late to stop Muslim immigration. Cormann and Cory need to study a bit of history. They need to understand that Muslims have been present in this country for centuries, arriving long before the first white settlers.
The bigots and haters can read this for starters, then do a bit more research to gain an appreciation of just how much Muslim immigrants have done to help develop this country.
http://www.islamicpopulation.com/Oceania/Australia/Muslims%20in%20Australia%20A%20Historical%20Perspective.htm
davidwh
That just proves theu do not know the facts.
The fact that a tax is not a traded commodity does not change that fact.
Just as the fact the earth is round does not change that fact no matter how many say the earth is flat.
A fact is a fact is a fact.
It is an inditement on politics today that there is a need for for a political fact checker.
I remember the days when politicians would be held to account by the media for lies they utter.
No more now a fact checker is required because the media have debased themselves that much by becoming players and campaigning.
Kirky
That’s great! We look farward to seeing you there. I will let Puff, who is organising this one, know.
8 June 2013
1.00 PM
Concourse Cafe at the National Wine Centre of Australia
AddressCorner of Botanic and Hackney Roads
Adelaide, South Australia, Australia 5000
guytaur it’s also a fact that those permits costing $25 are not tradeable commodities and won’t be until 2015. In fact those permits are not even retained by the organisations required to pay for them.
The China growth bubble is deflating…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-26/china-leaders-signal-slowdown-tolerance-as-policy-shift-planned.html
[China’s President Xi Jinping signaled a tolerance for slower expansion to avoid environmental degradation as policy makers outlined plans for the private sector to take a bigger role in boosting growth….
“Reforms are more pressing now — growth is running out of space, there’s more pressure on the labor markets and local governments have too much debt,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, head of the department of government and international studies at Hong Kong Baptist University who has studied Chinese politics for three decades. “They need to boost the economy but they can’t do it with another stimulus or some form of quantitative easing.”
Since taking office, Li has pledged to cut government interference in the economy, give market forces more power and boost the role of private companies.
Biggest Dividend
In his first press conference as premier on March 17, Li described reform as the “biggest dividend for China” and said that cutting the government’s power was a “self-imposed revolution.” The changes would “be very painful and even feel like cutting one’s wrist,” he said.
As part of efforts to curb pollution, the Ministry of Environmental Protection said this month it suspended approval for coal-fired power projects in the regions of Inner Mongolia, Henan and Guizhou. It also ordered 15 companies, including state-owned Hebei Iron & Steel Group, to pay fees for sulfur-dioxide emissions, according to a statement on its website.
“The government is showing a much bigger tolerance for slower growth because they understand that China’s potential growth rate is slowing and that concerns about the environment are rising,” said Bank of America’s Lu. “One of the reasons we cut our growth forecast is because protests over environmental issues are leading to the cancellation or delay of a lot of investment projects.”]
The era of State-sponsored stimulus in China has drawn to its inevitable close, with substantial implications for the direction of investment, trade and income in this economy.
Anyone who believes we have a carbon tax is just fundamentally wrong – no amour of argument could or will change this. That a lot if people believe it speaks to their intelligence and that a lot of people assert it speaks to their credibility.
davidwh
Its a fixed price that becomes a floating price. That is no way a tax. That is just the facts.
@newsflock: Politifact should be more engaging by @timdunlop – http://t.co/A2pst9OyLf — May be we need a crowd sourced version? Any interest?
[213
AussieAchmed
Having ranted for so long that the economy is no better than Greece…and given that Australia’s economy is not even close to Greece etc the Liberals are now casting insults on Treasury to justify their own piss poor economic credentials and to try and cover up their lies about the Aust economy.]
Just give the LNP some time, AA. They will make Australia resemble Greece soon enough.
What should had happen
The media should be forced to obide by their own code of conduct & ethics
Which is to report fairness, accurate and no biased toward a political party
if this happen the coalition would not be in the race
guytaur yes it is a fixed price that becomes a floating price in 2015. In the meantime the fixed price acts just like any other government revenue raising measure and the organisations required to pay the fixed price have no option available other than to incur the cost and remit that cost to the government. After 2015 they then have the option to trade in the market and reduce that cost if the market allows.
If the organisations concerned actually received a tangible “asset” for the price they are required to pay your argument would have some legs. The fact they don’t get anything tangible reduces the validity of your argument.
Anyway it’s all been argued to death and most people have made up their mind about what they believe the PM committed to pre-election and what they actually go post-election regardless of what terms people want to use.
[From 1 July 2002, a Government superannuation co-contribution will be introduced in place of the existing rebate for personal superannuation contributions made by eligible low income earners. The co-contribution will match personal undeducted contributions by low income earners made on or after 1 July 2002.
A maximum co-contribution of $1,000 will be payable in respect]
God you make an idiot out of yourself at times.
Howard increased the Co-Contribution to $1500:
http://www.ato.gov.au/super/PrintFriendly.aspx?ms=super&doc=/content/42616.htm
2007-08
This is the super co-contribution you will receive (up to a maximum of $1,500).
The Labor Government have cut Co-Contributions to the bone. They also stopped indexing the income thresholds meaning less and less people were eligible per year.
They are a disgrace when it comes to Super.
Briefly
It was quite evident that rapid Chinese economic development was at a ruinous cost to the environment and that environmental blowback was going to be both large and inevitable. They ate their future. The future is now.
As with elsewhere, freshwater is first cab off the rank.
Ground water mining, glacier melt water vulnerable to AGW glacier degradation, AGW changes to regional precipitation patterns, pollution of rivers and of lakes all contribute.
Which reminds me. All Ords now down around 4.5% in two-and-a half trading sessions… has Briefly got into their brains?
When the experts start talking anxiously about the ‘mood’ of the stock market you know that they aren’t talking about value propositions.
davidwh
As I said a fact remains no matter what people believe.
You try hard to dispute it but it comes down to a simple fact. The carbon price is not a tax.
All those saying it is are the ones who have got it wrong.
ST
I see that you are not supporting Abbott’s decision to rob the nest egg of superannuants. Excellent.
[Its a fixed price that becomes a floating price. That is no way a tax. That is just the facts.]
Oh so my car rego isn’t actually a tax, it’s just a “fixed road price”.
The Carbon Tax is a tax in every meaning of the word.
By your ‘tangible’ argument David you can’t own anything you can’t touch – would make holding a patent very difficult. Very very silly argument.
ST means that the PPL levy is a tax.
ST also means that a GST of 20% would be a big tax.
Tisme
Wrong.
Your rego is not a tax. Its the price you pay for insurance and other costs.
ST also means that he diesel thingy for miners is the opposite of a tax…a subsidy from the lowest income earners to rich corporates with entities in tax haven countries.