Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Galaxy follows up Saturday’s state poll with federal voting intention results for Queensland, painting the usual grim picture for Labor.

GhostWhoVotes reports the Galaxy poll of 800 Queensland respondents which gave us state results on Saturday now brings us federal results, indicating a 59-41 Coalition lead in the state from a swing of about 4%. This compares with a 55-45 result in the last such poll in February, which seemed a little favourable to Labor at the time. On the primary vote, Labor is down five to 28% and the Coalition is steady on 46%.

There has also been Queensland state polling over the weekend from Galaxy and ReachTEL, which you can read all about here.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor down a point on the primary vote to 34%, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48% and 8%. Two-party preferred is unchanged at 55-45. Other questions find Joe Hockey leading Wayne Swan as more trusted to handle the economy 37-28, out from 35-32 before the budget; 43% believing Tony Abbott should accept the Gonski reforms against 34% who favour the existing model; 51% saying climate change is caused by humans against 35% opting for normal fluctuation; support on opposition for carbon pricing tied at 43% all, the most favourable result yet recorded; 39% favouring it against 29% for the Liberals’ “direct action” policy (at least with respect to the policies as described in the question); and only 26% believing Tony Abbott will fulfill his promise to remove both the mining and carbon taxes while keeping the carbon tax compensation measures.

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll has Labor up 1.5% to 33.5%, the Coalition steady on 45.5% and the Greens down half a point to 9.5%. Both respondent allocated and previous election two-party preferred measures have shifted from 55-45 to 54.5-45.5, providing further evidence that Morgan’s new methodology has resolved the inexplicable discrepancy between these measures which bedevilled the old face-to-face series (as well as its Labor bias).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,883 comments on “Galaxy: 59-41 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. Crikey I just meant that both are ex-PM’s who are largely disliked in their respective parties. They both came into office with great expectations but in the end shirked the big issues. They were both given initial credit for replacing a “hero” in the opposition camp but never really lived up to the initial hype. Their respective parties would be happy if they disappeared down a hole and were never heard from again. No doubt they will both continue to be a thorn for their respective parties.

  2. By the way if Fraser was a true blue Liberal he would never have left it to a Labor PM to make the key economic re-structures he should have made.

  3. Rudd supporters have been accused of trying to inflame a sledging match in caucus after Senator John Faulkner condemned new laws which give political parties an extra $58 million in taxpayer-subsidised campaign funds and go soft on disclosure rules. Mr Faulkner called the laws a “disgrace”.

    Blame Rudd time again……. Shows over Gillard.

  4. [While most senior Labor figures described as “ludicrous” the possibility that another challenge could be mounted with only 108 days before the election, others said it could not be ruled out.

    “How could you rule it out considering how badly we are going,” one said.]

    :devil: Shows on

  5. Boerwar 1845

    ‘Have we ever have had more ex-prime ministers alive at the same time than we do now?’

    Who is the person or persons who keep a bit of a track on this expenditure and largesse?

    It is dreadful that the taxpayer is footing an enormous bill to maintain each of these people in the manner to which they rapidly become accustomed.

    I don’t mind, to a degree, all these exies being afforded some recognition, after leaving office. For say 5 years. Max.

    But surely there should be a use by date. Given the pretty well stupendous allowances and perks well into their who gives a whatever about their pronouncements and relativity.

  6. I don’t really follow party politics very closely, and I had assumed that after the Crean debacle everything in Labor was settled until the election.

    But there are signs that maybe it is not impossible that Julia Gillard may be rolled before the election. There are all those resigned ministers on the backbench (including Rudd himself) and the stories about how Gillard has delayed internal polling for fear it would be used to destabilise her (as she used it to destabilise Rudd) and now this thing with Faulkner. Plus a few other leaks in the last few days.

    I have revised upwards my probability that there may be more leadership drama before September. the closer it gets the more nervous the marginal seat (and not so marginal seat) MPs will get.

  7. I don’t think there is any chance of another leadership debacle. This is either normal argy-bargy being overplayed by DT or just the Rudd remnants making life tough for the PM.

  8. [davidwh
    Posted Tuesday, May 28, 2013 at 11:47 pm | PERMALINK
    I don’t think there is any chance of another leadership debacle. This is either normal argy-bargy being overplayed by DT or just the Rudd remnants making life tough for the PM.]

    Some clear leaks there David.

    Agree with the above, why would Rudd want to lead this debacle to defeat, though i think Rudd is willing to make sure its a proper debacle.

  9. [Agree with the above, why would Rudd want to lead this debacle to defeat, though i think Rudd is willing to make sure its a proper debacle.]

    Why would Rudd stay on in parliament and contest another election if he didn’t want to be PM again? The man is incapable of not making himself the centre of attention.

    I don’t know how he’s going to get around his pledge never to be leader again though. But I’m sure he’s already thought of that and has a strategy.

  10. Davidwh 1851.

    I think I may have at least built a small encampment in my 1855. As to your:

    ‘By the way if Fraser was a true blue Liberal he would never have left it to a Labor PM to make the key economic re-structures he should have made’.

    Are you saying then, that Labor undertook the reforms cum restructuring that needed to happen?

    And why would not Fraser have undertaken that reform?

  11. I still think there’s a small window opening up over the next couple of weeks for the ALP to decide it’s better to go to a snap election.

    That may involve rolling Julia Gillard in order to clear the way for an immediate election.

    I don’t have any view on who might become leader, and I don’t think it matters – they wouldn’t be planning to win or even stem losses, just take advantage of the fact a half-Senate election can’t be held until August.

    This scenario is still probably fairly unlikely, but the ALP have to be keeping this contingency in mind. It makes more sense if they’re actually planning on defending their legacy (and causing the LNP as much grief as payback next term). If whoever is likely to take over is just going to roll over then there’s not overly much point – Shorten had that strange article about giving away carbon pricing eg.

    Certainly if the polling blows out in the next week or so I think they kind of have to do this.

  12. Crikey Fraser shirked the reforms recommended in the Campbell Report and left much of that to Hawke to implement. I can only assume he wasn’t prepared to take the political risk and a a result set the country back years on economic and financial reforms.

    All credit to Hawke/Keatong for taking the tough decisions.

  13. [All credit to Hawke/Keating for taking the tough decisions.]

    The tough decisions were made a lot less tough by the fact that the opposition at the time supported them all (and even did Labor the favour of saying they didn’t go far enough).

    The coalition saved itself from a repeat of this when they rolled Malcolm “lets be constructive” Turnbull and installed Tony Abbott as leader. Negativity works for an opposition much better than being constructive.

  14. Like the idea of Kea Tong.

    I had forgotten the Campbell Report.

    That is true. We really did have a ‘golden age’ of prosperity, full employment and a sense of adventurism.

    While it lasted.

    Sort of the rather sad sounding refrain of what is it?

    Hope, Reward, Opportunity.

    Mhhh. Sure.

  15. [BT are you suggesting the opposition should oppose good and necessary reform just to promote their political position?]

    I’m saying it works better in attaining their goal of being elected sooner. Whether it is good or bad or right or wrong I don’t really have an opinion on. There are positives and negatives either way.

  16. Boerwar@1845

    Have we ever have had more ex-prime ministers alive at the same time than we do now?

    Yes; there are currently six but at a couple of times in the 1940s there were as many as eight. The rapid turnover in the first half of the century is enough to cancel out the shorter lifespans. There have not been seven since the early 1950s.

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Barney Zwartz gives an excoriating summary of the abuse inquiry. It is written with much feeling given his personal investment over the years.
    Zwartz with an update on settlements by the Christian Brothers.
    Two of our favorites, Reith and Joyce are at odds over the constitutional recognition of local government.
    Ross Gittins with a call to arms to his fellow journalists to thoroughly examine and question the policies of both side. If only!!
    Karma for the gutless one.
    Not even Hogwarts could put this howler to bed!
    And this is despite Abbott’s continuous bad mouthing!
    This is as appaling as it is illustrative.
    David Pope conflates Gina and Bill Gates.
    Ron Tandberg has a shot at the big end of town.
    David Rowe with Bill Gates and a very downtrodden Wayne Swan.

  18. To those above who, each in their own way, sought to value my contribution here or otherwise solidarise with me … thanks (a lot). It’s always a comfort to have earned a measure of respect from one’s circle of acquaintances.

    D&T is “Design & Technology” and is the entry-level course for the Technology courses offered in NSW High Schools. It includes inter alia introductions to Food Tech, woods, metals, plastics, textiles, electronics and IT/multimedia-Graphics Tech.

  19. Player One:

    [Or someone who is so obsessed in self-examination that the journey has become more meaningful than the destination?]

    The two are equal and in constant dialog. There can be no journey without a goal and no goal without a journey. The destination may change of course, as one discovers en route that a path is lacking or fraught with unacceptable hazards.

    [Perhaps I just meant that it was weird that someone should spend so much time on a psephological site who continually boasts that they have no intention of actually voting – not even for the party of which they are a member?]

    Well technically, I do cast a vote — but in practice it probably isn’t counted as I use the Langer method. I’m against coerced voting though, and voting for the ALP under duress (my vote won’t count otherwise) strikes me as “an unacceptable hazard”.

    [I can’t help but wonder what you discuss with other party members when you meet them – do you perhaps try and persuade them not to vote either?]

    I do put the case that giving an effective preference to the ALP entails endorsing their policies as the lesser harm, when on at least one ground, it clearly is not. Others may of course rationalise doing this, and it’s not for me to badger them about it. IIRC, in the senate if you correctly sequence 90% it is counted as formal. Allowing six spots for the two parties (i.e 12) that means you only have to number the first 108. Sadly, there are some other parties that I’d not like to support either on that list so I only number the Greens and ostensible socialists. Perhaps I will put Assange in the list if his group runs.

    [On the other hand, you do at least provide some welcome relief from the constant barrage of anti-intellectual trolls that PB seems to have attracted recently.]

    Well there you go — a silver lining.

  20. Alcopops were a deliberate marketing strategy aimed at young (even pre legal) people and a large proportion was aimed at young females – to make drinking easy – taste good and have a sexy image.

    If overaged people are deliberately buying spirits and using them like idiots it is a completely separate issue. If those who were sucked into alcopops have migrated to more drinking of spirits – then the strategy of the marketing worked – and it reinforces the importance of the measure.

  21. ru

    I still can’t see why it’s any healthier for Labor (for eg) to use a unions money to advertise rather than spending their money on advertising directly.

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