Covering the greater part of Hobart, Denison produced one of the most significant results of the 2010 election, sending one of five cross-bench members to the first hung parliament since World War II. Andrew Wilkie achieved his win with just 21.2% of the primary vote, giving him a crucial lead over the Greens who polled 19.0%. The distribution of Greens preferences put Wilkie well clear of the Liberal candidate, who polled 22.6% of the primary vote, and Liberal preferences in turn favoured Wilkie over Labor by a factor of nearly four to one. Wilkie emerged at the final count with a 1.2% lead over Labor, which had lost the personal vote of its long-term sitting member Duncan Kerr.
Like all of the state’s electorates, Denison has been little changed since Tasmania was divided into single-member electorates in 1903, with the state’s representation at all times set at the constitutional minimum of five electorates per state. It encompasses the western shore of Hobart’s Derwent River and hinterland beyond, with the eastern shore suburbs and the southern outskirts township of Kingston accommodated by the seat of Franklin. It is one of the strongest electorates in the country for the Greens, who managed to increase their vote slightly from 18.6% to 19.0% despite the formidable competition offered by Wilkie. Booth results show a clear north-south divide in the electorate, with Greens support concentrated around the town centre and its immediate surrounds in the south and Labor continuing to hold sway in the working class northern suburbs.
Labor’s first win in Denison came with their first parliamentary majority at the 1910 election, but the 1917 split cost them the seat with incumbent William Laird Smith joining Billy Hughes in the Nationalist Party. The seat was fiercely contested over subsequent decades, changing hands in 1922, 1925, 1928, 1931, 1934, 1940 and 1943. It thereafter went with the winning party until 1983, changing hands in 1949, 1972 and 1975. The 1983 election saw Tasmania buck the national trend, the Franklin dam issue helping the Liberals return their full complement of five sitting members with increased majorities. Hodgman’s margin wore away over the next two elections, and he was defeated by Labor’s Duncan Kerr in 1987, later to return for a long stretch in state parliament (he is the father of Will Hodgman, the state’s Liberal Opposition Leader). The drift to Labor evident in 1984 and 1987 was maintained during Kerr’s tenure in the job, giving him consistent double-digit margins after 1993 (substantially assisted by Greens preferences).
Kerr bowed out in 2010 after a career that included a four-week stint as Attorney-General after the 1993 election when it appeared uncertain that incumbent Michael Lavarch had retained his seat, and a rather longer spell as Keating government Justice Minister. The ensuing Labor preselection kept the seat in the Left faction fold with the endorsement of Jonathan Jackson, a chartered accountant and the son of former state attorney-general Judy Jackson. What was presumed to be a safe passage to parliament for Jackson was instead thwarted by Andrew Wilkie, a former Office of National Assessments officer who came to national attention in 2003 when he resigned in protest over the Iraq war. Wilkie ran against John Howard as the Greens candidate for Bennelong in 2004, and as the second candidate on the Greens’ Tasmanian Senate ticket in 2007. He then broke ranks with the party to run as an independent in Denison at the 2010 election, falling narrowly short of winning one of the five seats with 9.0% of the vote.
Placed in the centre of the maelstrom by his surprise win at the 2010 election, Wilkie declared himself open to negotiation with both parties as they sought to piece together a majority. The Liberals took this seriously enough to offer $1 billion for the rebuilding of Royal Hobart Hospital. In becoming the first of the independents to declare his hand for Labor, Wilkie criticised the promise as “almost reckless”, prompting suggestions his approach to the Liberals had been less than sincere. Wilkie’s deal with Labor included $340 million for the hospital and what proved to be a politically troublesome promise to legislate for mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines. This met fierce resistance from the powerful clubs industry, and the government retreated from it after Peter Slipper’s move to the Speaker’s chair appeared to free it from dependence on Wilkie’s vote. Wilkie withdraw his formal support for the government in response, but it has never appeared likely that he would use his vote to bring it down.
Labor’s candidate for the coming election is Jane Austin, a policy officer with Tasmania’s Mental Health Services, who emerged as the preferred candidate of the still dominant Left. The Greens candidate is Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne. The Liberals are yet to choose a candidate, prompting Labor to claim the party proposes to play dead in order to boost Wilkie. A ReachTEL poll of 644 respondents in mid-2012 had Wilkie well placed with 40% of the primary vote to 28% for the Liberals, 17% for Labor and 14% for the Greens.
Mick77:
[Since most PBers profess to care for others, although I suspect that in reality for some it extends only as far as “provided you have the same political views as me”, please give generously to today’s Red Shield appeal.]
I never give to religiously-based organisations. I’m much sooner the state just stepped up and supported those in need, with contributions collected from the citizenry. Failing that, I donate to secular organisations such as Oxfam.
mari:
If you’re still around, today’s Chris Hadfield:
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=608615539156187&set=a.157475407603538.32702.151680104849735&type=1&theater
Mod Lib @ 144
no i was not totally wrong, i did say i could not be certain about other areas of northern tablelands
and you still havent answered , what do you class northern tablelands is
when the candidate which did win
was one time a labor/national member at the same time and helping independent also at the same time
and was mainly campaigning on Labor’s policies
so what is northern tablelands
[130
zoomster
Gauss
You seem to be playing Chinese whispers here – trying to critique an article by reading blogs about it which refer to other blogs about it (none of which, unlike the article, were peer reviewed). You accept – without checking – that these blogs are reporting accurately the contents of the article, where (the very few) examples I’ve highlighted show that they are not.
You cannot claim to be a sceptical or objective thinker if you continue to do this.]
There is no sense in which Gauss is an objective thinker on this matter. He simply poses as one. But he is entirely disingenuous.
Mod Lib
[ the comment was sexist and was equating Nikki with being a dog.]
Who says BB was referring to her looks :).
[Top 10 Least Intelligent Dogs
10. Basset Hound
….Though this breed of dog lacks intelligence, they are very gentle dogs and are devoted to their owners……. Even though you might be stuck repeating “sit, speak” or other commands to a Basset Hound, this breed of dog is perfect for an owner who is looking for a dog that is well behaved]
http://www.toptenz.net/top-10-least-intelligent-dogs.php#ixzz2UM4Az7c0
i was only talking about the armidale area
which marshall did lose ground in
Gauss
as for this:
[you should only use Category 1 = 65 & the ratio turns out to be 65/4010 =1.62%. Not 97%]
OK, then, let’s rejig the figures (I’ll use the break up you’ve given, because – as I said – Cook’s isn’t as detailed)–
[1. Explicitly endorses and quantifies AGW as 50+% (65)
2. Explicitly but does not quantify or minimize (934)
3. Implicitly endorses AGW without minimizing it. (2933)
4. No position (8261)
5. Implicitly minimizes /rejects AGW (53)
6. Explicitly minimizes/rejects AGW but does not quantify (53)
7. Explicitly minimizes/rejects AGW as less than 50% (15)
8. Undecided (10)]
Now, to start with, we’re not replicating Cook’s findings here, but accepting someone else’s attempt to replicate Cook’s findings, using slightly different criteria to Cook.
You want to exclude Category 3, which -as I have pointed out – isn’t actually the same as Cook’s Category 3, but I’ll accept that.
Now, that reduces us to Category 1 and 2 and places 3 in the same box as undeclared.
Thus we use Category 1 & 2 versus Category 5,6 & 7 – because what we’re meant to be comparing is categories where there is a clear view expressed. (To be perfectly fair, I should probably use your own criteria to exclude 5, but I’m being nice).
Which gives us a total pool of 1120, of which 999 are in the ‘for’ category and 121 in the ‘against’.
Which is 89%.
[but i was right on where i got the vibe from they didnt support the nationals]
Meguire:
So you were right about where you got the “vibe”, were you? Pray tell, where?
These are the worst booths for the Nats:
Booth_____(number of votes)___vote 2013____swing to Nats
Drake Hall ___(48)______________34.1_________ +15.8
Armidale City Public (1155)_____46.5_________+23.5
Armidale Town Hall (2471)_____47.8 __________+25.9
Was it the Drake Hall booth with all of its 48 votes that you got the “vibe”?
[Medical authorities are investigating senior WA health officials over alleged breaches of infection control procedures involving single-use anaesthetic equipment being used in multiple patients in public hospitals.
Documents from the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency obtained by The Weekend West show the Medical Board is investigating the role of at least six doctors, including Health Minister Kim Hames, over claims that as Government health officials they allowed “single-use only” anaesthetic circuits to be used on successive patients in WA hospitals.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/17319471/senior-doctors-face-inquiry/
This follows an investigation into an anaesthetist who was found to be re-using syringes in north west hospitals.
poroti:
Fair enough! Perhaps I misunderstood BB there! :devil:
ModLib
not sure what I’m meant to be responding to.
I’ve been off researching my responses to Gauss.
poroti:
My basset is highly intelligent. Not only does she understand ‘sit’, ‘stay’, but also knows and responds to ‘dinner’, ‘breakfast’ (‘basset breakfast’ if I need to get her moving quickly in the morning), and ‘stay and be good’.
🙂
CONFESSIONS THank you very much for Chris H Pic, I have been to Labrador next to the island Newfoundland, unfortunately ran out of time to get to NFland amazing place.
Also glad you have seen my comments obviously MOD LIB can’t as he appears unable to answer a very serious question of mine directed at him, tried to brush off by being flippant but now doesn’t answer. Wonder why not?
zoomster @ 130
Just because anyone links to a blog or media article to support their opinion doesn’t disqualify them as independent thinkers zoomster. This OMO is just patent nonsense. Commenters on this blog do it all the time.
zoomster:
You don’t need to respond to anything.
We have unanimous support on PB apparently for similes (or is it metaphors? :devil:) equating Gillard with dogs and calling females “prune face”.
I just wanted to clarify that everyone else agreed (given nobody but bbp and I objected to these things). Apparently, its fair game henceforth.
gauss @ 149
no excuses , marshall polled 46.5% in the booth
yes i accept i did say i would be surprise if he polled over 30%
[and you still havent answered , what do you class northern tablelands is]
I think the AEC has answered this question for me.
Mod, you’re just as good at leaving criticisms of people of your political persuasion up to others.
zoomster @ 140
<blockquote. Laypeople misunderstanding what a scientific abstract is saying is not the fault of the article. It is the fault of the way it is being reported and/or understood.
Zoomster, please, I linked above a direct quote from one of the authors,see the quotation marks? Again
http://www.australasianscience.com.au/news/may-2013/consensus-humans-cause-climate-change.html
I’m not implying I’m not :D.
I think Wilkie will be 1 of the 2 indies to survive September (the other obviously being Katter).
I can see the Libs prefrencing Wilkie again over the Labor candidate to keep the Labor disease out of Tassie.
Mod Lib
Yes by name , but what do you class it by policies
[DisplayName
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:00 am | PERMALINK
Mod, you’re just as good at leaving criticisms of people of your political persuasion up to others.]
You think PB is lacking in posts critical of non-ALP voting bloggers?
LOL 🙂
I think there is a serious deficiency of posts condemning sexist and other posts from ALP voting bloggers, and I am highlighting the abject hypocrisy from those who think themselves as the battlers for justice and equality here!*
*and loving it, I don’t mind telling you :devil:
Poroti
The practice of comparing women to dogs is something we ought to avoid, much as we regard comparing Indigenous folk to apes is unacceptable. It really doesn’t matter what you were thinking when you said it — the ‘meaning’ is not yours alone to define, because the allusions are firmly located in an existing culture.
Exploring the extent which Nikki Savva shares the attributes of basset hounds is simply not apt, IMO. I also always cringe when Pyne is compared with a poodle because this seems to me to be at least incipiently, a kind of gay/masculinist-bait. I believe we should ensure that when we object to people’s political contributions, we do so on substantive grounds. While it is almost inevitable that we will be more careless in observing these rules when commenting on someone who offends us, that doesn’t make it right. If one takes one’s ideas seriously, one ought to think harder when commenting on those who seem repulsive. That’s less about giving the repulsive their due than affirming our own inegrity, and that of all those who are our cultural peers.
[Meguire Bob
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:03 am | PERMALINK
Mod Lib
Yes by name , but what do you class it by policies]
Conservative
Our Little Precious, Mod-Lib keeps digging:
[Your personal attacks notwithstanding, you have yet to acknowledge the comment was sexist and was equating Nikki with being a dog.]
I won’t acknowledge anything of the sort because my comment was not sexist.
I was not equating Nikki Savva with a dog. That’s YOUR interpretation.
Plenty of people name their dogs after celebrities.
Doesn’t mean they think the celebrities are actually, dogs.
Mod
I’m referring to you specifically, not PB, but if that’s your logic, then why should other people jump in when you’re doing such a fine job criticising ALP voting persons?
oops …
[much as we regard comparing Indigenous folk to apes as unacceptable {…} That’s less about giving the repulsive their due than affirming our own integrity]
Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 10:50 am | PERMALINK
but i was right on where i got the vibe from they didnt support the nationals
Meguire:
So you were right about where you got the “vibe”, were you? Pray tell, where?
——————————————————————
Unfortunately i didnt talk to all of the 1155 or were they there at once
i got the vibe from the people who were volunteers from labor and independent maher
The inevitable intervention from Fran Barlow.
Is this a ruling?
[Exploring the extent which Nikki Savva shares the attributes of basset hounds is simply not apt, IMO.]
Good for you, Fran. That’s YOUR opinion.
ModLib
sorry, I wasn’t watching Insiders and thought Prune Face was a reference to a Lib MP who is commonly referred to by that name here.
Which, I think, demonstrates that “Prune Face” is not a sexist term, as the said MP is male.
You really need to educate yourself about what sexism actually is. You show woeful ignorance on the subject for someone who is supposedly a ‘moderate’.
[when you’re doing such a fine job criticising ALP voting persons?]
Ta
Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:04 am | PERMALINK
Conservative
——————————————
there were hardly any conservative polices seen , nationals – labor good
Sexist attacks on former Liberal staffers are bad.
Now, can Mod Lib please stop verbaling people?
Mod Lib@181
Welcome.
Fran
[I never give to religiously-based organisations. I’m much sooner the state just stepped up and supported those in need, with contributions collected from the citizenry. Failing that, I donate to secular organisations such as Oxfam.]
Typical arrogant nonsensical holier than thou loonie left attitude. I’ll warn the Red Shied collectors not to call at your place so they don’t get the bums’ rush. I presume that your place is the small eco-sustainable bungalow covered in solar panels with non GM veggies growing in the garden, water drawn from a well at the back, with doors always unlocked, no fences so that the cow can graze peacefully in the area and give milk to all. And if in doubt there is a sign on the post-box with “no junk mail” of course and an attached 3,000 word essay using only words of at least 3 syllables welcoming only collectors for non-western causes or cultures. I hope you never need help because Oxfam won’t give you much change but the Salvos will, no questions asked. However unfortunately you cannot ask the Salvos because it would be politically incorrect. There – it’s off my chest but the loonie left do get under my skin and I apologise in advance!
If silence is consent, if it’s a third party observing an argument, which side is it consenting to?
[i got the vibe from the people who were volunteers from labor and independent maher]
Meguire:
….and do you know understand that your insider knowledge is completely and utterly wrong?
That is the essential point you appear to be missing!
Meguire: The ALP will win 52%
Reality: The ALP actually won <10%
Do you get just how out of touch and how wrong you were?
Your opinions on New England will be viewed in the context of you having absolutely no clue about Northern Tablelands.
[mimhoff
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:08 am | PERMALINK
Sexist attacks on former Liberal staffers are bad.
Now, can Mod Lib please stop verbaling people?]
Hey mimhoff!
Congratulations!
Remember:
Bad things happen when good people stand by and do nothing
[Which, I think, demonstrates that “Prune Face” is not a sexist term, as the said MP is male.]
Of course it’s not a sexist comment. Can anyone here tell the difference between a boy prune and a girl prune?
…. crickets…
Mod Lib’s Glorious Leader had this to say on Free Speech and calling people dogs:
[You campaigned against the legislative prohibition against giving offence and I’m pleased to say that the author of those draft laws is now leaving the parliament. Well done IPA! And, of course, you campaigned against the public interest media advocate, an attack dog masquerading as a watchdog, designed to intimidate this government’s media critics and that legislation was humiliatingly withdrawn. John, whatever you did to persuade independent members of parliament, please, give it to me!
http://www.tonyabbott.com.au/LatestNews/Speeches/tabid/88/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/9135/Address-to-Institute-of-Public-Affairs-70th-Anniversary-Dinner-Melbourne.aspx ]
[You really need to educate yourself about what sexism actually is. You show woeful ignorance on the subject for someone who is supposedly a ‘moderate’.]
Haha 🙂
So you support and defend BB’s post about dogs and Savva then?
No problems with it? Confessions appears to have no problems with it either. Good to know for what is allowed in relation to Gillard over the next 4 months, I am sure many other posters will be thrilled to hear of the new opportunities available to them!
That said, there are alll sorts of ways to measure intelligence and all kinds of intelligence. One could argue that any dog that can get all it needs without doing very much in the pandering to their owners category may be a lot smarter than those dogs doing all manner of things merely to lick out a yoghurt container.
ML
[Meguire:
….and do you know understand that your insider knowledge is completely and utterly wrong?]
No, unfortunately Magoo does not understand that.
BB:
What is the name of that photographer you admire and emulate?
Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, May 26, 2013 at 11:10 am | PERMALINK
i got the vibe from the people who were volunteers from labor and independent maher
Meguire:
….and do you know understand that your insider knowledge is completely and utterly wrong?
—————-
Where did i say inside knowledge or the volunteers knew who what the votes were , they told me at that point of time of the support from people
i went on my prediction no inside from any labor staffer
Do the Salvo’s have a position on SSM?
Mod
It’s rather sad that you don’t consider yourself a good person :(.
Mod liB
You are starting to dig yourself in a hole there
I am a good person DisplayName!
Can you not see how I fight for what is right, even in the midst of all these PB bloggers who stand by posting nothing in response to those comments? I am here, all alone, defending what is right against the forces of evil, who cloak themselves in the view that they are the defenders of what is right.
It is a lonely crusade, but if I don’t do it, who will?
Fran
Thee is a world of difference between calling someone a dog and saying they look like a Basset hound. Who hates Basset hounds ? Especially one called Fred.