Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44

The last two polls to be published before the budget show essentially no change on last week.

Today’s Essential Research result reverts to its position a fortnight ago, with Labor up a point on both the primary vote and two-party preferred. That puts Labor on 34%, the Coalition on 48% and the Greens on 9%, with two-party preferred shifting back to 55-45. Monthly personal ratings show Tony Abbott in his strongest position since late 2011, his approval up three to 40% and disapproval down two to 50%. Julia Gillard has also recovered slightly, up four on approval to 38% with down two on disapproval to 54%, her best figures since January. Abbott maintains a two-point lead as preferred prime minister, which shifts from 39-37 to 41-39. There are also questions on the NDIS (57% approving of the levy increase and 30% disapproving) and paid parental leave (34% support the government’s scheme, 24% the opposition’s), as well as parliamentary majorities (49% would favour a government majority in the House, with an even spread of opinion for the Senate) and the independents (broadly neutral for Oakeshott, Windsor and Wilkie and negative for Katter, oddly enough).

The weekly Morgan multi-mode poll likewise records little change on last week, with the Coalition up half a point to 46.5%, Labor steady on 32% and the Greens up one to 9.5%, leaving both respondent-allocated and previous election preferences unchanged at 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,524 comments on “Essential Research 55-45, Morgan 56-44”

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  1. [BK
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 7:00 pm | PERMALINK
    Pyne got his arse smacked by Albo

    Why should Pyne be rewarded?]
    You are on fire today LOL

  2. Oooo the ABC have updated their crap about the “lost vote”.

    [The vote was eventually re-put to the House and the Coalition’s amendment was defeated by one vote.]

    So the entire story was incorrect but we will not say so.

  3. [Pyne got his arse smacked by Albo

    Why should Pyne be rewarded?]

    True. He is a nasty little git. Smack in the head with a mace would be more appropos.

  4. So how long is SeanTisme going to be allowed to troll this site? He/she would only be making such an offensive comment to spark responses from ALP posters.

  6. [Aug 2010

    Abbott offended thousands of people with disabilities by suggesting that discussions in parliament about accessibility were a waste of time.]

    So now he is a changed man?

  8. Puffy:

    That commenter will continue trolling the site for as long as others continue responding to him/her.

    The scroll wheel is your friend. 🙂

  14. [BK
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 7:16 pm | PERMALINK
    mari
    I’ve had more than enough of that nasty little twirp!]

    So agree with you

  15. [poroti
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 7:18 pm | PERMALINK
    Does anyone else think that the Pyne would have been ‘Johnny No Friends’ at high school ?]

    Think he has admitted he has no “close” friends 🙂

  16. So today we saw

    1. No Coalition MPs not up when the House recommended its sittings.

    2. Abbott lying about the reason for the no show.

    3. The Coalition calling on an unexpected and pointless motion (as payback?) and Labor MPs not show up.

    All rather chaotic, don’t you think?

  18. [Abbott offended thousands of people with disabilities by suggesting that discussions in parliament about accessibility were a waste of time.]

    Because heaven forbid it just wouldn’t do to make parliament house more accessible to people with disabilities. We can’t have those kinds of low calibre people mixing with the likes of us, can we?

    Honestly, he is just appalling.

  19. Meher,

    Only if you wee superficial and disengaged and looking for something to whinge about.

    Have a look at Ru’s comment at 2262

  22. PS. Surely none of you are suggesting that the Coalition no show this morning was deliberate? It was a stuff-up for sure, not a gesture of disdain for the disabled.

    But it was poor form for Abbott to blame the Government for a stuff-up that happened in his office.

    Baby brain perhaps?

  25. meher
    <blockquote? ps.="" surely="" none="" of="" you="" are="" suggesting="" that="" the="" coalition="" no="" show="" this="" morning="" was="" deliberate?="" it="" a="" stuff-up="" for="" sure,="" not="" gesture="" disdain="" disabled.=""
    That depends on why they stuffed up.

  26. Display

    32 floors up from the Podium and even it isn’t at actual ground level.

    A former partner described it as a ‘castle in the sky’.

    But a good wash wouldn’t hurt the place!

  30. GG@2269. Not disengaged or superficial. Just observing. I think there’s a lot of tension in the big house on both sides ATM: ALP stressed about seemingly impossible situation and Coalition fearful that it’s all too good to be true and fearful of displaying “hubris” (incorrect usage of the word but now all but universal. A better word would be “complacency”).

  31. Oh I think I know, I forgot to close the opening blockquote tag with an angular bracket and some smartypants software *fixed* my errant html in assuming all the following words were attributes.

  33. Treasury is saying the budget is in deficit even before the revenue write-downs.

    So Labor has been busted spending more then they make, even on the rosy figures.

  35. DN@2275. PS. It was clearly a stuff-up. It is standard procedure for both sides to have at least one person in the House at all times while it is sitting. Otherwise, one side or the other has the opportunity to pull stunts.

  37. [2278
    my say
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 7:29 pm | PERMALINK
    rummel I think the pm should be praised on every

    issue when u show total respect for her I will be shocked]

    You will not be shocked to learn that I disagree with the above, however, on shedding a tear over disability care she should be left alone and politics not played with it.

    And I’m very happy you are reading my post again Mysay. 🙂

  38. CTAR1 Pleased it is 32 floors up, 20 floors and I would be worried for you :devil:
    Mind you I was starting to wonder last big storm we had here if I was going to have complete waterfront, y70 metres suddenly didn’t seem very far. I still wonder too, the beach has lost about 30 metres of sand

  40. I agree Rummel, plenty of other places to attack the government like my above post.

    Swans last budget spending last year wasn’t even covered had the revenue write-down didn’t occur.

  43. meher baba:

    The coalition managed their one person in the HOuse this morning. Where were the rest of them? They were all (yes, ALL) present at the start of QT when it was announced the NDIS financial bills would be presented to the HoR.

    This morning we have Abbott telling radio interviews as the PM was speaking that they didn’t know about the bills. Yet the PM’s Office released email communications confirming they knew, and Kevin Andrews was there representing the opps.

    Abbott is full of shite, and you have been misinformed.

  45. Display

    [when the English invade on the excuse that London is too clean.]

    Everyone can have a bath and things will be mostly OK.

    Pubs in Aberdeen will thrive.

  46. [CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, May 15, 2013 at 7:40 pm | PERMALINK
    mari – ‘Waterworld’ downstairs sounds like fun.

    As long as the Tower doesn’t slump into the Cross-Rail Tunnel.]

    You will be inspecting it again,soon won’t you? Sounds like a good tax lurk to me 😀

  47. meher is that tongue in cheek
    im in the no mood for that if so. this is a serious subject

    we have a disabled grandchild and abbott and the whole

    lnp showed no respect for me my daughter my granddaughter
    her father her other grandparents and her sibling’s
    and all other s connected in some way,
    don’t u worry my daughter made sure that picture went on hundreds of face books people connected with
    disability and heart kids

    people not impressed
    I also know through the labor party on line media group it was posted very quickly

    ========================
    no stuff up keep up with the news

    we have here some where on the site a memo
    email I presume that all members receive.

    u say you worked at the big house on the hill
    so you would know that there is daily memo
    that goes to each staff and member re the bill of the day

    are you having a lend of your self or us

    ==================

    most opinion today that I have spoken to believe it was on purpose

    so your TELLING US THAT ALL THE OTHER MEMBERS FORGOT ALSO

    in that case they are not even fit to be the opp

    if abbott and his mob show no respect for people in the country with disabilities.

    how can the aust people exzpect anything but dislike for all of us
    o only u are rich and qualify for his ppl

  48. Kevin Andrews was in the House as the Shadow Minister, that the rest of his party could not spend 17 minutes out of their busy day to acknowledge the disabled and carers in the gallery says it all.

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