Seat of the week: Wakefield

Located on the northern fringe of Adelaide, Wakefield has a safe-looking double-digit Labor margin. But the Liberals have held the seat before, and indications of a strong statewide swing have given them hope they might do so again.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (steady), 33% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). There are also numerous questions on national debt, led off by the finding that 48% are aware that Australia’s is relatively low compared to other countries against 25% who believe otherwise. However, 46% believe the main reason for Australia’s debt is that the “government are poor economic managers”, against 26% for the world economy and 17% for the high dollar. Same-sex marriage has been gauged for the second time in a fortnight, showing 58% support (up four on last time) and 32% opposition (down one).

Extending from outer northern Adelaide into rural territory beyond, Wakefield has existed in name since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, but its complexion changed dramatically when its southern neighbour Bonython was abolished when the state’s representation was cut from 12 seats to 11 at the 2004 election. Previously a conservative rural and urban fringe seat encompassing the Murray Valley and Yorke Peninsula, it came to absorb the heavily Labor-voting industrial centre of Elizabeth in the outer north of Adelaide while retaining the satellite town of Gawler, the Clare Valley wine-growing district, and the Gulf St Vincent coast from Two Wells north to Port Wakefield. Labor’s overwhelming strength in Elizabeth is balanced by strong support for the Liberals in Clare and the rural areas, along moderate support in Gawler.

The redistribution to take effect at the coming election has cut Labor’s margin from 12.0% to 10.3% by making two changes at the electorate’s southern end. The boundary with Port Adelaide has been redrawn, removing 8000 voters in the strongly Labor area around Salisbury North while adding around 700 west of Princes Highway. Immediately east of Gawler the boundaries have been made to conform with those of Barossa Valley District Council, adding 2600 voters around Lyndoch from Barker and 2100 around Williamstown from Mayo.

Prior to 2004, Wakefield was won by the prevailing major conservative party of the day at every election except 1938 and 1943, the only two occasions when it was won by Labor, and 1928, when it was by the Country Party. The seat was held for the Liberals from 1983 to 2004 by Neil Andrew, who served as Speaker from 1998 onwards. When the 2004 redistribution turned Wakefield’s 14.7% margin into a notional Labor margin of 1.5%, Andrew at first considered challenging Patrick Secker for preselection in Barker, but instead opted to retire. Wakefield was nonetheless retained for the Liberals at the ensuing election by David Fawcett, who picked up a 2.2% swing off a subdued Labor vote around Elizabeth to unseat Martyn Evans, who had held Bonython for Labor since 1994. Fawcett’s slender margin was demolished by a 7.3% swing in 2007, but he would return to parliament as a Senator after the 2010 election. As was the case with Labor’s other two South Australia gains at that election, Wakefield swung strongly to Labor in 2010, boosting the margin from 6.6% to 12.0%.

Labor’s member over the past two terms has been Nick Champion, a former state party president, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association official and staffer for state Industrial Relations Minister Michael Wright. The SDA link identifies him with the potentate of the South Australian Right, Senator Don Farrell. Champion came out in support of Kevin Rudd in the days before his unsuccessful February 2012 leadership challenge, resigning as caucus secretary to do so. Champion’s Liberal opponent will be Tom Zorich, a local sports store retailer, former Gawler councillor and one-time player and club president of the Central Districts Football Club. Despite the size of the margin he faces, the Liberals are reportedly buoyed by weak polling for Labor in South Australia generally, and by Holden’s announcement in April that 400 jobs would be cut at its Elizabeth plant.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,287 comments on “Seat of the week: Wakefield”

Comments Page 4 of 46
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  1. It’s been obvious for a long time that Labor wil be left with only a handful of seats outside of Victoria, and will even lose quite a few there.

  2. the thing what is embarrassing

    Is some labor supporters are letting the media get away with the garbage it is spreading by propaganda

    And expect people to fall behind the media and wait for the media to get labor messages through

    those people are more delusional then i am, if they think the media is not protecting its man abbott

    People need take the media’s crap on

    the only way the governments message is going to get through

  4. The government should have the guts to put the media authority to do its job

    and get news ltd and other pro coalition media to obey by their own code of ethics

  6. Imacca is right, but I doubt many individuals have their savings tied up in Australian bonds. 85% of Australian bonds are held by overseas institutional investors, such as central banks. Much of the rest will be held by local institutional investors.

  7. Toorak Toff
    Posted Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 12:17 pm | PERMALINK
    It’s been obvious for a long time that Labor wil be left with only a handful of seats outside of Victoria, and will even lose quite a few there.

    —————————————————————–

  10. There is no much more labor can do apart form continuing to roll out policies

    People need to continue ot pressure the media hacks to let the people decide without the media biased

  12. Darn, I did watch the LL clip, though I had to postpone breakfast to do it. Sloan is an activist imbued with IPA style ideology.

    The Kouk talked about the “depth” of the bond market, meaning that financial markets really need high liquidity to function properly – investors will only buy financial assets if there are many other investors also willing and able to trade in the same assets, so that prices can be efficiently “discovered”, risks can be hedged and positions quickly increased or decreased to suit the needs of their balance sheets and cash management.

    So, for example, banks are required to hold either shareholder cash or Government securities in their assets, and these have to be in proportion with their total assets/liabilities. This ensures that banks will always be solvent. It also means there must be an active market in debt. The RBA plays an active role as a buyer and a seller in the market to make sure it functions smoothly.

    If the amount of marketable debt available were to be reduced, the market will become less liquid and investors would become less willing to hold Australian Government securities at all. The Kouk was suggesting that this would lead to a sell-off in the debt market – that is, it would cause the price of debt to fall/ interest rates to rise. Debt would become more difficult to raise and there could be a currency crash as a result.

    He has a point. Costello never got rid of Government debt for this reason. The logical claim really is that we need liquid capital markets; the Government has to issue debt to achieve this, but it can also buy the debts of others, so it is not necessary to run net deficits.

    We can create both new liabilities (obligations to others) and new assets (claims on others), which is what we should be aiming to achieve. This has been a prominent feature of RBA reserve management since the GFC. It is one reason why foreigners want to hold AUD. They are not only betting on the Australian economy and Government, the are betting on convertibility itself and the rest of the world economy too.

    Foreigners have been buying the AUD for their reserves. If we want this to continue (and we should, it adds to stability in our finances) then we have to go on issuing currency to meet their demand. At the moment this is having a distorting – elevating – effect on the exchange rate and is also acting to increase our current account deficit while also causing growth to slow appreciably.

    We should find a way to meet foreign reserve demand without also increasing our net foreign liabilities – that is, we should try to manage the fiscal position, official assets and liabilities and the foreign exchange market to achieve structural balance and to enhance total financial stability.

    This is far more important than the transient existence of a deficit or a surplus in the public sector. We need to make sure total system liabilities do not grow too quickly and that system liquidity is always adequate. I’m sure we do a good job at this now. We should try to do even better in future.

  13. Its a waste of time imo for people to try to get their message through on what labor can do through the media it self

    The government it doing the right thing , and the ordinary people will not get it through the media, but labor supporters

  14. I got no doubt that news poll

    will ask propaganda question trying to claim Gillard backflip and will try to talk up Abbott

    and there will be no questions on Abbott or the coalition

  15. The distinction between public and private debt is in some ways not a helpful one. It is far more meaningful to see the public sector as a subset of the household sector in both a real and a financial sense. It is pointless to look at one without also looking at the other, because they are interdependent in very sense.

  16. If the media was leaving it up to the public to decide

    Labor would be infront by a long way

    And no i am not delusional in saying that , its a fact

  18. All these right-wingers talking up their “boy” for the election is like the owner of some mongrel dog singing praises for the shine of it’s coat!
    ‘Look at him…shit-breeding, dumb as, couldn’t sniff out a turd in a sewer, sure….but hey!…check out the coat!”

  19. victoria
    Posted Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 12:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Dean Felton from 7BREAKING: Gillard and Napthine about to sign deal for Victoria on #NDIS. More to come….

    ———————————————————————

    More positive for the Gillard government

    But newsltd and other pro coalition media will try to talk up its good for Abbott

  20. joe carli
    Posted Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 12:52 pm | PERMALINK
    All these right-wingers talking up their “boy” for the election is like the owner of some mongrel dog singing praises for the shine of it’s coat!
    ‘Look at him…shit-breeding, dumb as, couldn’t sniff out a turd in a sewer, sure….but hey!…check out the coat!”

    ———————–

    Exactly Joe carli

    People need to be more aggressive towards the media, for not letting labor get the message out fairly

  24. [Dean Felton from 7BREAKING: Gillard and Napthine about to sign deal for Victoria on #NDIS. More to come….]

    Oh no another terrible mistake by the Prime Minister!!

    DON’T DO IT JULIA!!!!!!!!

  25. M’ Bob… “People need to be more aggressive towards the media.”

    The media are like those potato skins at the bottom of the compost bin…white on top, but brown and smelly on the underside….and seem to take forever to rot!

  28. The NDIS was signed and Napthine sealed it with a kiss!!

    [Napthine gives gillard a kiss after signing #ndis deal and says “it’s worth it.” Gold. #springst]

  30. .@Vic_Premier signs on to full implementation of Disability Care #ndis #auspol (via @3AWRadio) pic.twitter.com/ooQ4VyrmBA
    12:36 PM – 4 May 2013

  33. victoria:

    The kiss will be spun by her detractors as all Gillard’s fault.

    It’s not Prime Ministerial, you know?!

  36. [And no i am not delusional in saying that]

    Those most delusional are those that say that they are not…

  37. [it wont matter what PMJG does, she is a bad seed.]

    You learn something new every day. I never knew the PM played with Nick Cave.

  38. TT

    [It’s been obvious for a long time that Labor wil be left with only a handful of seats outside of Victoria, and will even lose quite a few there.]

    I very much doubt it. I think they’ll probably lose Hindmarsh with an outside chance of losing Adelaide.

  39. bbp

    PMJG is so ineffectual, that this country is getting an NDIS sooner rather than later. Off with her head I say!

  40. Now we have the Gillard Government providing an extra 3.5 billion over two years to combat drugs doping. So we are promised a tough budget with cuts everywhere and they throw that amount of money at what is essentially a marginal cause. If they want to seriously save money, they should cut every $ that goes to professional sport – with the $$$ that wash around in professional they do not need taxpayers money as well.

  41. Victoria

    How easy it is to forget .. earlier in the week she wanted it later, she was wedged into the earlier.

  44. Well, Napthine will get a stern telling off from Janet Albrechtson. How very unLiberal of him….

    (But seriously, good on him!)

  45. Briefly

    Thank you for your 162 in reply to my 120.

    Just a follow up question if I may. How do you think Abbott and Hockey will go dealing with all that. Do they have the smarts to understand what is required and the will to do it, or are they just going to f**k the economy in the name of ideology?

  46. [earlier in the week she wanted it later, she was wedged into the earlier.]

    This week we saw 4 official positions on the NDIS from the coalition. It was Abbott who got wedged, with Hockey the collateral damage along the way.

  47. [That leaves NT, Qld and WA as the only states not to have signed up for NDIS.]

    Can Newman turn it down after he got the levy he wanted?

  48. [‘’shit-breeding, dumb as, couldn’t sniff out a turd in a sewer, sure….but hey]

    Are you talking about Gillard? Of course you’re not because the left rule in the hypocrisy stakes. Anyway, i am loving all the name calling and huff and puff being shot out by Team Gillard. You guys have stuffed Labor beyond what i thought achievable and you are going to make the NSW Labor loss seem like a tight run race. Lol people did not think that badly of Keneally and worse is headed for Fed Labor because Gillard is so disliked.

    Why did you keep Gillard? crazy!

  49. Victoria

    From The Age

    [The Federal Government has announced that the sports anti-doping authority and integrity unit will get a boost in the federal budget.
    Sports Minister Kate Lundy told the Australian Olympic Committee’s annual general meeting that the Australian Sports Anti-Doping Authority (ASADA) and the National Integrity of Sport Unit would each get an extra $1.7 billion over the next two years.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/sport/35b-more-to-ensure-sport-integrity-20130504-2izbw.html#ixzz2SI6a7RbD%5D

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