Seat of the week: Wakefield

Located on the northern fringe of Adelaide, Wakefield has a safe-looking double-digit Labor margin. But the Liberals have held the seat before, and indications of a strong statewide swing have given them hope they might do so again.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (steady), 33% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). There are also numerous questions on national debt, led off by the finding that 48% are aware that Australia’s is relatively low compared to other countries against 25% who believe otherwise. However, 46% believe the main reason for Australia’s debt is that the “government are poor economic managers”, against 26% for the world economy and 17% for the high dollar. Same-sex marriage has been gauged for the second time in a fortnight, showing 58% support (up four on last time) and 32% opposition (down one).

Extending from outer northern Adelaide into rural territory beyond, Wakefield has existed in name since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, but its complexion changed dramatically when its southern neighbour Bonython was abolished when the state’s representation was cut from 12 seats to 11 at the 2004 election. Previously a conservative rural and urban fringe seat encompassing the Murray Valley and Yorke Peninsula, it came to absorb the heavily Labor-voting industrial centre of Elizabeth in the outer north of Adelaide while retaining the satellite town of Gawler, the Clare Valley wine-growing district, and the Gulf St Vincent coast from Two Wells north to Port Wakefield. Labor’s overwhelming strength in Elizabeth is balanced by strong support for the Liberals in Clare and the rural areas, along moderate support in Gawler.

The redistribution to take effect at the coming election has cut Labor’s margin from 12.0% to 10.3% by making two changes at the electorate’s southern end. The boundary with Port Adelaide has been redrawn, removing 8000 voters in the strongly Labor area around Salisbury North while adding around 700 west of Princes Highway. Immediately east of Gawler the boundaries have been made to conform with those of Barossa Valley District Council, adding 2600 voters around Lyndoch from Barker and 2100 around Williamstown from Mayo.

Prior to 2004, Wakefield was won by the prevailing major conservative party of the day at every election except 1938 and 1943, the only two occasions when it was won by Labor, and 1928, when it was by the Country Party. The seat was held for the Liberals from 1983 to 2004 by Neil Andrew, who served as Speaker from 1998 onwards. When the 2004 redistribution turned Wakefield’s 14.7% margin into a notional Labor margin of 1.5%, Andrew at first considered challenging Patrick Secker for preselection in Barker, but instead opted to retire. Wakefield was nonetheless retained for the Liberals at the ensuing election by David Fawcett, who picked up a 2.2% swing off a subdued Labor vote around Elizabeth to unseat Martyn Evans, who had held Bonython for Labor since 1994. Fawcett’s slender margin was demolished by a 7.3% swing in 2007, but he would return to parliament as a Senator after the 2010 election. As was the case with Labor’s other two South Australia gains at that election, Wakefield swung strongly to Labor in 2010, boosting the margin from 6.6% to 12.0%.

Labor’s member over the past two terms has been Nick Champion, a former state party president, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association official and staffer for state Industrial Relations Minister Michael Wright. The SDA link identifies him with the potentate of the South Australian Right, Senator Don Farrell. Champion came out in support of Kevin Rudd in the days before his unsuccessful February 2012 leadership challenge, resigning as caucus secretary to do so. Champion’s Liberal opponent will be Tom Zorich, a local sports store retailer, former Gawler councillor and one-time player and club president of the Central Districts Football Club. Despite the size of the margin he faces, the Liberals are reportedly buoyed by weak polling for Labor in South Australia generally, and by Holden’s announcement in April that 400 jobs would be cut at its Elizabeth plant.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,287 comments on “Seat of the week: Wakefield”

Comments Page 3 of 46
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  3. Rummel…: “So just how big will the labor loss be this year.”

    “How many ways do I love thee…(plucks daisy flower and commences to pick off the petals one by one whilst wistfully sighing in a sing-song voice..) twenty seats?..thirty seats?..FORTY SEATS!!!…SHE LOVES ME!!

    Rummel…drop the “E’s”, take up the “B’s”….give you a bigger “high”.

  5. Clive Palmer may shake up the election with a $30 million war chest and has plans for Abbott:

    [Palmer, who launched his United Australia Party last week, says he is confident that he will be Australia’s next prime minister.

    He said three opinion polls in the last week which showed strong support for him had his opponents “shitting themselves”.

    Asked whether that included Federal Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, Palmer said “you’ll have to ask him, but he’s going to have a lot of time after the election to go cycling”.

    He says he has garnered huge support and has a $30 million war chest for the campaign.]

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/billionaires-oppressed/story-fncynjr2-1226634767194#ixzz2SHIFV99K

  6. Got ReachTeled again last night on voting intention in Fed election (they must like my number, or they like going back to numbers where they get a response). Questions were – voting intention in Fed election (just party based), Preferred PM, effect of NDIS on voting, best party to handle NDIS, Age bracket & sex.

  11. does rummell

    now work at Menzies

    house,

    the words sound familiar,

    ===========================================================

  13. there will be some very interesting preference negotiations this year – with One Nation it was easy to say put them last, it’s not quite as clear cut this time around imo

  14. things must be serious for abbott
    WITH THE

    THE SUBJECT HE rummelJUST INTRODUCED

    SO HE MUST BE WORRIED ABOUT OUR SUCCESS//

    RUMMELL

    don’t talk about the alp and gov.,

    talk about your dear leader and his policies

    =========================

    if you know of any.,

  15. so has tony backed down on the

    PPL also,

    have we seen any thing about that

    being a go er or a non starter also

    ====================================

    nothing left

    what about the tree planting to save the world

    where that at this point

    the green army , ready to move yet

    nah didn’t think so

  16. [This has got to be the ultimate Restaurant review. Absolute classic.]

    Agreed, GG…

    [“So why do the Americans and English come here? Men who, at home, are finickity and fussy about everything, who consider themselves epicurean and cultured. Men who choose their own ties and are trusted with scissors and corporations, who have “sophisticated” on their Facebook pages.

    Why do they continue to come here? They can’t all have brain tumors.

    The only rationally conceivable answer is: Paris.

    Paris has superpowers; Paris exerts a mercurial force field.

    This old city has such compelling cultural connotations and aesthetic pheromones, such a nostalgically beguiling cast list, that it defies judgment. It’s a confidence trick that can make oreille de cochon out of a sow’s ear—reputation and expectation are the MSG of fine dining.

    But still, it’s undeniable that L’Ami Louis really is special and apart. It has earned an epic accolade. It is, all things considered, entre nous, the worst restaurant in the world.”]

  19. Z

    [have you poked around archive.org yet?

    It provides access to millions of out of copyright books (and other forms of media) which are available for free download.]

    Not you as well!!

    I don’t read books on tablets.

    I like my books. They are my only friends. 😉

    BTW I listed a survey of MPs reading recently.

    Gillard listed that book I sent you “The Political Brain” as the non fiction book she had read most recently.

  20. Victoria

    Thank you for posting the link to the Late Line debate between Stephen Kouloulis and Judith Sloan – very informative. Well let’s say one of them was very informative, while the other was just a waste of space and air time.

    Koukoulis taught me a number of things I didn’t know about the economy. Sloan taught me nothing. Koukoulis spoke in great detail to support his view that debt is not a problem in this country. In fact he even said at one point that we need more not less, to insulate us against future down turns. (Not sure exactly how this works but it’s to do with issuing more government bonds). Sloan spoke in cliches and broad generalities and was most unconvincing.

    One very startling thing that Koukoulis said was that if Abbott gets in and starts winding back the “trivial” debt level we have it will likely spark a flight of capital from Australia. (he gave specific reasons but I wasn’t able to take them in well enough to discuss them here). I’m no economist but I would think a loss of significant capital at a time like this would be pretty disastrous.

    Encouragingly from a Labor point of view, Sloan did say that if Abbott wins in September he and Hockey are going to have a very difficult time. Bring it on I say, bring it on.

    Briefly, if you get to read this post I would be very interested in any comments you may have about any of the matters I have attempted to convey.

  22. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 10:23 am | Permalink
    crikey,

    Its a toss up between it and the Titanic replica as to which will sink first.]

    GG

    Got a good laugh out of that, but as a Labor supporter I’m not sure I want it to sink, at least until we see how much of an effect it is going to have on the Liberal support base. If Clive’s party takes off, it could play into Labor’s hands in the long term.

  24. This ought to shut up the 457 White-Anters here:

    [The opposition has backed most of the government’s planned changes to the 457 visa scheme, calling the reforms sensible ”housekeeping”.

    The crackdown on the temporary foreign worker program initially attracted criticism from business groups and the opposition. It was claimed Prime Minister Julia Gillard was demonising foreigners and ”trashing skilled migration”.
    Coalition immigration spokesman Scott Morrison maintains his attack on the government’s ”inflammatory rhetoric” but has used the release of an internal report to signal his support for most of the changes.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/coalition-supports-457-visa-changes-20130503-2iyd4.html#ixzz2SHWoKssb ]

  27. Meguire Bob. For you. Keep up the good work! Your unfailing optimism is highly appreciated.

    THE MANLY ORIGINS OF CHEERLEADING
    by Lisa Wade, PhD, Dec 28, 2012, at 01:03 pm

    For the last week of December, we’re re-posting some of our favorite posts from 2012. Cross-posted at Jezebel, the Huffington Post, and Pacific Standard.

    You might be surprised to learn that at its inception in the mid-1800s cheerleading was an all-male sport.

    Characterized by gymnastics, stunts, and crowd leadership, cheerleading was considered equivalent in prestige to an American flagship of masculinity, football. As the editors of Nation saw it in 1911:

    …the reputation of having been a valiant “cheer-leader” is one of the most valuable things a boy can take away from college. As a title to promotion in professional or public life, it ranks hardly second to that of having been a quarterback.*

    Indeed, cheerleading helped launch the political careers of three U.S. Presidents. Dwight D. Eisenhower, Franklin Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan were cheerleaders. Actor Jimmy Stewart was head cheerleader at Princeton. Republican leader Tom DeLay was a noted cheerleader at the University of Mississippi.

    And read on at Sociological Images…google it as I am not sure of the address.

  30. [121
    Meguire Bob
    Posted Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 11:00 am | PERMALINK
    Rummel getting worried labor is getting into a strong position]

    Please don’t mistake my hubris for worry. I’m so assured of a lib win I almost feel sorry for all the team Gillard supporters who trudge on head down regardless of what’s happening in the real world..

  31. I see rummel has been channeling Meguire Bob and still thinks we’ll see SSM under the Coaltion before we see it under Labor.

  32. The opening par of the first leader in the first number of The Economist (5 August 1843):

    IT is one of the most melancholy reflections of the present day, that while wealth and capital have been rapidly increasing, while science and art have been working the most surprising miracles in aid of the human family, and while morality, intelligence, and civilization have been rapidly extending on all hands;—that at this time, the great material interests of the higher and middle classes, and the physical condition of the labouring and industrial classes, are more and more marked by characters of uncertainty and insecurity.

    ’twas ever thus, it seems.

  33. Rummel.

    Tony was ‘interviewed’ by some Skybot about his polliepedal future as PM. Curtailed, due to circumstances.

    Among other sacrifices, eg Arakun, surf life saving, the bot relayed that Tony would have to give up his fire fighting duties.

    Inestimable loss.

  34. “South Australia, planned on principles which are universally recognised as containing the elements of sound and successful colonisation, has proved a failure.”
    (The Economist, 16 September 1843)

  37. [117
    crikey whitey

    BK. Read William’s…

    http://www.kryztoff.com/RAW/?p=3848
    118
    BK
    Posted Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 10:43 am | Permalink

    Good morning crikey
    What a depressing read!]

    It sometimes seems to me that we have a successful Christian Democrat Party in this country. Half of it is inside Labor. The other half is inside the LNP. In this case it doesn’t matter which party wins elections, they never lose power. Perhaps the Groupers have won after all.

  38. abbott

    should live in a caravan he will spend most of his
    life in
    sports carnivals.

    have look at the lists,

    of these evens iron man carnivals ‘
    through out the years ahead

    =
    how can u run a country from a van and on a bike

  40. [136
    my say
    Posted Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 11:49 am | PERMALINK
    good to see only one liberal

    here today

    what a breath of fresh air]

    Thanks Mysay, I love it when you give me complements.

  41. and I don’t infect my mind with read them

    but its so good they are not taking up space

    by the way the soccer was one by our school

  42. PVO today

    Clive Palmer may shake up the election with a $30 million war chest and has plans for Abbott:

    Palmer, who launched his United Australia Party last week, says he is confident that he will be Australia’s next prime minister.

    He said three opinion polls in the last week which showed strong support for him had his opponents “shitting themselves”.

    Asked whether that included Federal Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, Palmer said “you’ll have to ask him, but he’s going to have a lot of time after the election to go cycling”.

    He says he has garnered huge support and has a $30 million war chest for the campaign.

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/billionaires-oppressed/story-fncynjr2-1226634767194#ixzz2SHIFV99K

  43. Oops dont know what happened there

    PVO article here

    [THE first edition of The Australian newspaper, published on July 15, 1964, introduced itself on page one: “It will be our duty to inform Australians everywhere of what is really happening in their country … and how this affects our prosperity, our prospects, our national conscience and our public image”. It’s a duty worth remembering today, as the inevitable ending of the Labor government draws closer and Tony Abbott’s ascent to the prime ministership looks assured.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/tony-abbott-in-danger-of-being-a-do-nothing-pm/story-fn53lw5p-1226634885499

  49. [Koukoulis taught me a number of things I didn’t know about the economy. Sloan taught me nothing. Koukoulis spoke in great detail to support his view that debt is not a problem in this country.]

    LoL! He made the good point that we now actually have a bond market which under Howard and the Hammock Dweller, we didn’t.

    I wonder how many of the people out there have their savings tied up in Australian Bonds for the return and security they offer who would REALLY appreciate having to shift to a higher risk profile under the Coalition?

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