UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (steady), 33% for Labor (down one) and 9% for the Greens (steady). There are also numerous questions on national debt, led off by the finding that 48% are aware that Australia’s is relatively low compared to other countries against 25% who believe otherwise. However, 46% believe the main reason for Australia’s debt is that the “government are poor economic managers”, against 26% for the world economy and 17% for the high dollar. Same-sex marriage has been gauged for the second time in a fortnight, showing 58% support (up four on last time) and 32% opposition (down one).
Extending from outer northern Adelaide into rural territory beyond, Wakefield has existed in name since South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, but its complexion changed dramatically when its southern neighbour Bonython was abolished when the state’s representation was cut from 12 seats to 11 at the 2004 election. Previously a conservative rural and urban fringe seat encompassing the Murray Valley and Yorke Peninsula, it came to absorb the heavily Labor-voting industrial centre of Elizabeth in the outer north of Adelaide while retaining the satellite town of Gawler, the Clare Valley wine-growing district, and the Gulf St Vincent coast from Two Wells north to Port Wakefield. Labor’s overwhelming strength in Elizabeth is balanced by strong support for the Liberals in Clare and the rural areas, along moderate support in Gawler.
The redistribution to take effect at the coming election has cut Labor’s margin from 12.0% to 10.3% by making two changes at the electorate’s southern end. The boundary with Port Adelaide has been redrawn, removing 8000 voters in the strongly Labor area around Salisbury North while adding around 700 west of Princes Highway. Immediately east of Gawler the boundaries have been made to conform with those of Barossa Valley District Council, adding 2600 voters around Lyndoch from Barker and 2100 around Williamstown from Mayo.
Prior to 2004, Wakefield was won by the prevailing major conservative party of the day at every election except 1938 and 1943, the only two occasions when it was won by Labor, and 1928, when it was by the Country Party. The seat was held for the Liberals from 1983 to 2004 by Neil Andrew, who served as Speaker from 1998 onwards. When the 2004 redistribution turned Wakefield’s 14.7% margin into a notional Labor margin of 1.5%, Andrew at first considered challenging Patrick Secker for preselection in Barker, but instead opted to retire. Wakefield was nonetheless retained for the Liberals at the ensuing election by David Fawcett, who picked up a 2.2% swing off a subdued Labor vote around Elizabeth to unseat Martyn Evans, who had held Bonython for Labor since 1994. Fawcett’s slender margin was demolished by a 7.3% swing in 2007, but he would return to parliament as a Senator after the 2010 election. As was the case with Labor’s other two South Australia gains at that election, Wakefield swung strongly to Labor in 2010, boosting the margin from 6.6% to 12.0%.
Labor’s member over the past two terms has been Nick Champion, a former state party president, Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association official and staffer for state Industrial Relations Minister Michael Wright. The SDA link identifies him with the potentate of the South Australian Right, Senator Don Farrell. Champion came out in support of Kevin Rudd in the days before his unsuccessful February 2012 leadership challenge, resigning as caucus secretary to do so. Champion’s Liberal opponent will be Tom Zorich, a local sports store retailer, former Gawler councillor and one-time player and club president of the Central Districts Football Club. Despite the size of the margin he faces, the Liberals are reportedly buoyed by weak polling for Labor in South Australia generally, and by Holden’s announcement in April that 400 jobs would be cut at its Elizabeth plant.
Certainly interesting.
If the appeal succeeds is a precedent created letting much more appeals become part of the future of judicial process?
http://australiansforhonestpolitics.wordpress.com/2013/05/03/ashby-appeal-slippers-turn/comment-page-1/#comments
“@ABCNews24: China has welcomed strategy presented in new Defence White Paper, for more we speak to @CraigEmersonMP http://t.co/TtTI3ZYXOH”
Adrian
I guess you think the coalition are going to win in a landslide because they are a bunch of “lefties”?
You gotta laugh
The Barnett govt caves further on farm loans.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/17004269/wa-nod-to-farm-loans/
After initially proposing very weak assistance package to farmers, the WA govt was trumped by the federal assistance package, and was left filibustering over minor points of ‘concern’. They have now been forced to come to the party.
Farmers need to ask themselves why it is they keep electing Nats and Libs to represent them when it’s invariably the ALP which helps them when they really need it.
If my reading of Mr Neil’s submission is correct …it seems likely that Mr Harmer has no legal grounds on which to appeal Justice Rares findings …as he (Harmer) is not a party
to the proceedings.
Justice Rares hasn’t made a legal judgement against Harmer …but has criticised him for his professional conduct only. Thus there are no legal issues involving Harmer upon which the Justices can rule.
Very interesting….
http://australiansforhonestpolitics.wordpress.com/2013/05/03/ashby-appeal-slippers-turn/comment-page-1/#comments
Confessions – so we just have to wait until the make up of parliament reflects the views of the broader population??? It could be a very long wait 🙁
markjs
Very interesting indeed. Still i have no clue what the judges’ decision will be.
womble:
The issue isn’t that the parliament is necessarily unrepresentative, but that there is not bipartisan support for a policy change.
Womble
Not that long. NSW and SA are legislating Marriage Equality and Tasmania is going to revisit.
With SHY bringing in Legislation to recognise Marriage made overseas who knows how quickly this could happen.
We have no idea of Julia Gillard’s position on recognising marriages formed overseas. PMJG might actually support that.
[The implication of Mr Neil’s point was clear. If their Honours grant Mr Harmer leave to appeal they will be creating a precedent that could well open the flood gates to aggrieved third parties who may be mentioned adversely in findings.]
Floodgates arguments rarely persuade courts. Whether a non-party has an interest in proceedings is always fact specific so no clear principle can be identified from any one case.
briefly@2685 Previous thread.
Posted Friday, May 3, 2013 at 9:12 pm | PERMALINK
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/john-roskams-plan-for-enormous-government/
Briefly. Your recommendation accepted with thanks.
fess,
Apart from the inconvenient fact that marriage is defined as a relationship between a man and a woman.
GG
Defined by some. Not all.
Sigh. Another post lost in the ether – William, this does seem to be happening a lot lately!
So this is two in one….
1. Diog, have you checked out archive.org? Literally millions of out of copyright material – movies, live music, books – available for free download.
Already saved me heaps, as I’ve found several books I’ve been meaning to buy. (And great for research, as each book has a search function).
2. On Abbott, a conscience vote, and SSM – all indications are that the numbers supporting a conscience vote in the Liberal party room are just short of a majority.
However, IF the Coalition win, it’s likely that those coming in will be more extreme types and their numbers will more than offset any moderates elected.
So, post election, I think Abbott – who, after all, knows the nature of the MPs likely to be elected better than most – believes that those for a conscience vote will still be outnumbered.
Anyone who believes that Abbott is going to allow a (successful) vote for ssm is more delusional than any Labor supporter here.
rummel
Posted Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 8:26 am | Permalink
Morning Mysay
Abbott looks to be moving to wards SMS unlike Gillard.
========================================================
TOO QUOTE RUMMELL ABOVE
WHO obviously never reads anything in the papers or on line,
gees mate
wake up didn’t you see his latest
proclamation.
that’s what I was talking about,
from now on , no one can take you seriously
as you don’t read anything before you post
GEE bit like abbott does he ever read the
bills put before the house,
how do we know
guytaur,
Only the ones that can’t read or understand the law.
victoria…
Me neither …though it looks as though Harmer will not be granted leave to appeal …the precedent set would allow anyone who is not a party to a proceeding the same rights as those who are.
Justice Rares hasn’t ruled that Harmer did anything illegal in relation to the proceedings …rather he criticised Harmer professionally.
Only grounds that I can see for Harmer to appeal would be in the matter of liability for legal costs…
…and now my lost post to Diog appears!!
This site is behaving very strangely…
GG
Haha. You obviously have forgotten that Parliament changes law. Its called legislation.
markjs
Who would Harmers appeal against for liability of legal costs?
I notice rummels left
the board
after his discovery that abbott
has twisted backwards again,
And, of course, what Abbot says is self evident – that if the Liberal party room wants a conscience vote, it can vote for one at any time. They don’t have to wait until an election.
Of course, that’s if you believe that the Liberal party room is run according to the rules of democracy and free speech, rather than as some kind of dictatorship — which is where my argument may fall down.
Guytaur,
So much time and effort to re define a word.
If only you would use your super powers for good and not evil.
gg
as a catholic
I don’t mind ssm
it doesn’t hurt me,
we have friends who love their son as much as we love ours
why should he just be happy
GG
So much time and effort on your part to deny equality for others.
Did you back John Howard on not using the word sorry too?
abbotts hides behind his far outdated beleifs
of catholics that have grown
past many old doctrines,
so what else would he be thinking about
introducing.
may be the pill off the pbs
who knows we don’t he is never ask
zoomster
Should the govt bring up another conscience vote before parliament rises this year?
No Victoria, the coalition are going to win in a landslide because of the Gillard government’s political ineptitude.
But of course it’s OK to lie for racist dog -whistling purposes If it’s done by the ALP.
my say
You express a common view amongst Catholics from what I understand.
Most Catholics are reasonable and good people.
adrian
You see political ineptitude. I see the best oarliament we have had for a long time. It was messy and not pretty, but it was very worthwhile
guytaur,
Actually, Howard was very honest. He wasn’t sorry and wasn’t going to pretend he was.
Also, there was never any attempt to define a new meaning for the word ‘sorry”.
So you’re batting zero this morning, again.
victoria
totally pointless – there’s been no change in the MPs on the floor, so there would be no change in the vote.
If the Libs changed their position – and, as I say, there is absolutely nothing (except Abbott) stopping them – then, yes, of course.
my say,
You conflate two issues.
1. Homosexuality exists in it’s various forms and of course parents should and do love their children and support their life choices.
2. However, co habiting with another person of the same sex in some sort of civil arrangement is not and has never been a marriage.
[Of course, that’s if you believe that the Liberal party room is run according to the rules of democracy and free speech, rather than as some kind of dictatorship]
😆
Fantastic name it is, William.
And A MUST READ for South Aussies, at least!!!
Has the SDA ever been referred to as “the Shopranos” by anyone other than this guy? Because I think it’s rather good.
http://www.kryztoff.com/RAW/?p=3848
zoomster
I should have worded my question better.
The same way in which PMJG said she would bring forward funding legislation if the coalition were on board. Should she bring on another conscience vote if Abbott would allow his members a vote this time
GG
No you are batting zero. Yet again. In fact you are batting in the negative.
This is what happens to those arguing against Equality.
I hope you enjoy being in the company of Jim Wallace, Fred Nile, Cardinal Pell, Tony Abbott and Cory Bernadi.
I am happy being in the company of many many great people. Nelson Mandela, President Obama and his wife, Harvey Milk, Bob Brown to name but a few.
The real irony is, of course, that the Liberal party room isn’t supposed to be able to bind its MPs in the way Labor does – we are given to believe that every vote is a conscience vote for the Liberals.
So one has to ask what is so important about ssm that causes the Liberals to reverse one of the most basic tenets of their party, one which I have heard Liberal MPs (come on down, Sophie) in the past claim to be the fundamental difference between themselves and Labor?
As we have seen on countless occasions, there’s no tradition or convention that Abbott won’t overturn if it stops him getting his way.
Guytaur,
Your just blathering your usual blather.
Get back to me when you’ve got an argument.
Oh and Harvey Milk has been dead since 1978. Strange company you keep.
Gauss…you keep posting these ; “We’re gonna win..you’re gonna lose”..silly quites and mantras…when all the while YOU KNOW you’ve got a dog running in a horse race!
It’s not US who is “gonna get done”, it’s your lot…it’s just that we’re gonna do you slowly!
I also feel
if jesus was here amoungst us
he would throw the lnp out of temple
remember the money changers in a place of prayer
get the connection.,
=============================
few good things in the media to day to make the chooks wake up
the roster may of crowed to many times
GG
😆
I tried watching that Lateline debate, I really did.
But Judith Sloane is just TOO much this time of a Saturday morning.
BB,
Now you know why they invented alchohol.
BB
It could have been worse. Sloane was the last thing a lot of people would have seen before going to bed.
A whole night to overcome the experience would be horrific.
[guytaur
Posted Saturday, May 4, 2013 at 8:40 am | Permalink
confessions
It is worth watching. She was up against the Kouk.
The slam dunk that woke a lot of people up was her saying that yes she welcomed a recession to get a surplus.]
Just as a matter of interest, how would a recession result in a surplus?
[But Judith Sloane is just TOO much this time of a Saturday morning.]
That’s why I read the transcript and avoided the video.
“Mr Abbott said the issue of same-sex marriage had been subject to a vote in this Parliament which was ”fairly decisive”. Although the Coalition had not allowed a free vote, he believed a dozen ”at most” Coalition MPs would have voted in favour of change.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/no-revisiting-gay-marriage-abbott-20130503-2iygv.html#ixzz2SHB9DY4i
I’d suggest he knows more about what the Liberal party room thinks than those posting here.
We are a long way off the federal government supporting SSM with a conscience vote or not – remembering there are number of Labor MP’s that are against as well.
The states changing the laws will be interesting as will recognition of marriages legally performed overseas – hopefully it works.
Bring on the plebiscite imo
So just how big will the labor loss be this year? Gillard has been searching for a legacy and I think a loss of 40 seats sould really solidify her legacy in Labor history for a very, very long time. I still can’t fathom why Kevin was not givin another chance, people actually like him unlike Gillard.
Darn
See the transcipt confessions posted for Sloanes exact words.
For my part I expressed myself very badly there.
It should have been a recession caused by the pursuit of a surplus.