The biggest head-turner to emerge from the latest batch of polls was Labor’s sub-30% primary vote in Nielsen, but the BludgerTrack poll aggregate in fact records a slight improvement this week for Labor, who appear to be trending back to equilibrium after last month’s leadership crisis. As well as Nielsen, the aggregate has been updated with results from Galaxy, Morgan and Essential (there was also last night’s ReachTEL poll for Channel Seven, but I haven’t included this as I don’t yet have enough data for ReachTEL to determine bias and accuracy weightings). Nielsen’s breakdowns have also allowed for the state relativities to be revised.
Speaking of which, I thought it might be illuminating to plot how the mainland states have been tracking relative to the national polling since the 2010 election. The following charts do so with reference to Labor’s two-party vote. Keep in mind that this measures the states’ deviance from the national result, and not simply the level of Labor support – so a flat line tells us not that support for Labor in that state has been steady, but that the ups and downs have closely matched the national results (as they usually do).
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The most obvious point to emerge is that Queensland is the odd man out on account of its volatile trendline. This relates to the “smooth” function displayed at the top left of each chart, reflecting the smoothness of the line which most meaningfully represents the scattered data points (in the estimation of my stats program, going off something called the AICc criterion). Where the trend is either consistent or non-existent, as it is for the other four states, the smoothing parameter is high and the line fairly straight. But where there is a distinct pattern to the variation, as in the case of Queensland, the number lowers to produce a line variable enough to follow the trend (different smoothing parameters also explain why the Coalition’s primary vote trendline on BludgerTrack is smoother than Labor’s).
The Queensland exception is down to a fairly clear 3% sag for Labor from March to July 2012, which happens to be coincide with the immediate aftermath of their devastating state election defeat. This seems to suggest that temporary static from Queensland state politics added over half a point to the Coalition blowout in the national result at this time, which can be clearly observed on BludgerTrack. It should be noted that this week’s Nielsen result is the only data point for Queensland since last month’s Labor leadership crisis, and it’s solidly lower than anything recorded since November. BludgerTrack will need more than one 350-sample result before it draws any conclusions, but the Nielsen result may point to a downturn the Queensland trendline is yet to catch up with.
Something similar may also be happening in South Australia, where Labor’s downward turn since late last year would be much sharper with a lower smoothing parameter. If forthcoming results for this state remain poor for Labor, their already weak projection will deteriorate fairly rapidly.
Other news:
• Barnaby Joyce had a clear 150-10 win over local IT businessman David Gregory in the Nationals preselection for Tony Windsor’s seat of New England, conducted after the withdrawal of Richard Torbay. The LNP will now have to choose a (presumably Nationals-aligned) candidate to fill Joyce’s casual Senate vacancy when he resigns to the contest the election, with the winner to serve out the remainder of a Senate term that will end in mid-2017.
• WA Labor has determined the order of its Senate election ticket, the top two positions going to Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Assocation state president Joe Bullock and incumbent Louise Pratt, in that order. Bullock takes the seat designated for the SDA from the man he succeeded as the union’s state secretary, Mark Bishop, who bowed out of the race on Monday in recognition that he faced certain defeat. Bullock’s success in securing the top position was the contentious fruit of an arrangement between the Right faction SDA and the largest Left union, United Voice, which secured the state lower house seat of Fremantle for United Voice faction member Simone McGurk at the expense of Adrian Evans of the insurgent Maritime Union of Australia. Pratt’s demotion from top of the ticket in 2007 is more than symbolic, as there are fears Labor’s vote in WA is so weak it can’t be guaranteed a second seat. Former state upper house MP Jon Ford, who is associated with the United Voice’s main Left rival, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, complained that the SDA-United Voice deal very nearly led to Pratt being excluded altogether.
• Also determined by the Labor state executive was the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Chris Evans, which will stay in the United Voice fold by going to Sue Lines, a WA-raised but Sydney-based official with the union.
• Labor’s state executive also chose candidates for four lower house seats, three of which would be winnable under normal circumstances. Hasluck will be contested the aforementioned Adrian Evans of the MUA, whose partisans reportedly account for a quarter of the state party’s membership after a recruitment drive swelled their numbers from 150 to 850. There will be more on Hasluck in Friday’s Seat of the Week. The other candidates are lawyer Tristan Cockman in Cowan, Victoria Park deputy mayor John Bissett in Swan and, in the safely conservative regional seat of Durack, Fitzroy Crossing musician and party activist Daron Keogh.
• The Liberals have a new candidate for the Melbourne hinterland seat of McEwen after their initial nominee, Ben Collier, withdrew due to “unforeseen family circumstances”. The party’s administrative committee unanimously chose as his successor Donna Petrovich, a member of the state upper house for Northern Victoria region and former mayor of Macedon Ranges. Sue Hewitt of the Northern Weekly was able to confirm that ReachTEL had earlier conducted a poll of the electorate on behalf of an undisclosed client gauging name recognition for Collier and Petrovich. Petrovich will relinquish her seat in the upper house on June 30.
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports Liberal internal polling has them leading 56-44 in the Labor-held Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce, with the primary votes at 29% for Labor’s Anna Burke and 48% for the Liberal candidate in Chisholm, and 32% for Alan Griffin against 48% for the Liberals in Bruce.
• Former Victorian Farmers Federation president Andrew Broad has won preselection to replace retiring Nationals member John Forrest in Mallee. The other candidates were Swan Hill councillor Michael Adamson, Buloke mayor Reid Mather, Horsham farmer Russell McKenzie and Mildura resident Anne Webster. Swan Hill deputy mayor Greg Cruickshank was a late withdrawal. The Liberals are yet to determine whether they will field a candidate.
Jackol@1371
Being newspoll weekend they would do anything.
The mere thought of a stumble is unacceptable to them, but its still a political eternity until 14 September and anything can and probably will happen.
Crank
I think you will find that tax to GDP ratio is the proper measure to compare revenue and spending at a time when the economy is either growing or slowing.
So it has nothing to do with the success of the economy at all 😯
Centre @1392 – The ALP and Unions are World Leaders of internicene hatreds. They hate each other more than the Coalition.
I present you Poll Bludger as evidence.
briefly
you might also look into the ALP government lifting tax on air ticket by about 25% since 2007
Jackol
If you actually belive that what Obeid and McDonald did was not the worst thing done to democracy. you really have no idea. If the ALP think that creating laws to make yourself millions is ok for parliamentarians, then the ALP is beyond saving. The fact that successive ALP premier like Carr allows the likes of these to be in parliament is a bligh on the ALP
Crank
No, they hate each other in the Coalition – big time, don’t worry about that.
You just don’t hear about it 😉
I just want to know what was actually said. There is no excuse for threatening to slit someone’s throat. In this instance it’s the difference between an unsavory political embarrassment and a sackable offence. I’m certainly not justifying a person getting drunk and acting inappropriately.
dovif
What do you make of the conduct of the following for starters?
Malcolm Turnbull
Mal Brough
Arthur Sinodinos
Sophie Mirabella
Scott Driscoll
Geoff Shaw
davidwh
You omitted bribing PVO for his silence
[If you actually belive that what Obeid and McDonald did was not the worst thing done to democracy. you really have no idea.]
If you actually belive that what Howard did in sending this country into war based on a lie was not the worst thing done to democracy. you really have no idea.
Mind you under FWA you probably can’t sack a person for one instance of inappropriate behavior.
What a boring night for footy?
A test between Aust and NZ. YAWN !
I’ve got to wait another week to get my losses back from last week 😐
compact crank
you are going after the media hacks for the wrong people
you should be going after the media hacks for labor not for the coalition
TH
Point well made
I can’t think of any circumstances under which it’s appropriate to talk about cutting someone’s throat whether it’s to do with funding or anything else.
It shows Roberts lost control and became abusive.
Some photos of one of the suspects in Boston marathon bombing.
This one is a bit grainy.
?1366320779067
In this high resolution photo you can see him clearly and without the backpack.
Left hand side with a white cap.
click on the image to enlarge it.
Dio 1414 agree.
Centre,
Check the betting http://www.sportal.com.au/bz-opinion-display/kangaroos-set-to-trample-kiwis-203312
Hmmm the 2nd Amendment claims another victim — this time, a police officer responding to a disturbance at MIT, Boston.
US police officer shot dead on MIT campus
[TH
Point well made]
victoria
Typical of the LNP supporters to suggest that embezzlement, financial fraud is an attack on democracy. Such actions have nothing to do with attacking or supporting democracy.
I rate sacrificing the lives of our citizens to suck up to the leaders of other countries however as an attack on democracy and of course morally repugnant.
dovif has simply shown (as did Howard and Blair) that he puts money ahead of lives.
Duck, latest on Betfair:
Aust $1.13
NZ $9.20
Draw $75.00
I’d rather back Aust at $1.13 but I’ll wait for round 7 starting next Thurs.
There are some good things 😎
An attack on democracy is running out of the chamber so as to negate another representative’s vote.
The shooting was at 1045pm so it’s very unlikely to be a spree killing or hostage type situation.
Or to have your political enemies jailed.
Diogs
What about Black Caviar retiring with 25 wins from 25 starts?
Those Mexicans know when to pull the plug 😛
We’ve been deprived of possibly the greatest clash of all time – Black Caviar .v. It’s A Dundeel at 1600m.
The champion mare would go down 😎
[Or to have your political enemies jailed]
That’s very topical of you DisplayName
Well done 😉
Or put obstacles in the way of people voting/registering to vote.
Diogenes@1414
…
[ Tom Hawkins
Posted Friday, April 19, 2013 at 2:27 pm | Permalink
So funny to see the conservatives here rushing in all directions to put out the slit throat fires. ]
Well cc and bbp have tried all the usual tactics to deny and blame others, plus ‘look over there’ but it just doesn’t work –
– get a full transcript
– 2 sides to every story.
– he was provoked
– you don’t do that for no good reason.
– I wonder how ALP Staffers and Politcians talk
– PvO has a personal axe to grind with this guy
– Penfolds is not a Public Servant.
– PoV’s little venture into investigative journalism over such a petty matter
– PvO hardly rates as a friend of the Coalition
– If PvO wants to treat his sources this way then he’ll reap what he sews.
Thats tory and ipa Warrior’s for you though….
Tom Hawkins:
[If you actually belive that what Howard did in sending this country into war based on a lie was not the worst thing done to democracy. you really have no idea.]
Well it was horrible policy but strictly speaking, not really outside the normal usages of ‘democracy’. You will recall I feel sure, that when the US escalated its intervention in Vietnam following the fabricated “Gulf of Tonkin” incident, that Australia not only followed the US in, but introduced conscription for people who weren’t even old enough to vote. That war too was based on a number of connected lies and resulted in murder-for-hire programs, mass poisoning of the vegetation, use of WMD and intensive carpet bombing of Indochina, in propping up an autocracy. I’d put that ahead of Iraq 2003. Then there was 1975 when the Queens Offficial and a High Court judge and the then leader of the Opposition conspired to bring down a government mid-term, and did so. That was far more unconventional and undemocratic — and we haven’t even gone back further than 50 years.
Eddie Obeid and John Howard, bless their cotton socks, really aren’t in that league.
[The shooting was at 1045pm so it’s very unlikely to be a spree killing or hostage type situation.]
I haven’t heard anyone say “type situation” since Tim and Debbie.
DN @1421 – no – that is democracy in action. All part of voting and the function of Party.
Next you’ll be saying that voting against the ALP/Greens is an attack on Democracy.
centre
Thats not footy….footy tonight is Geelong vs Sydney and promises to be interesting
A politician may, however, subvert democratic process by representing people who pay them large sums of money instead of representing their constituents :P.
Tom Hawkins must have the prerelease version of the Macquarie Dictionary with an updated definition of Democracy in it.
On twitter
When Dr Mark Roberts gestured with a slit of throat to Penfold he ostensibly cut throat of whole Indigenous community. Penfold represents.
Compact Crank@1430
Why would I say that? Oh wait, I wouldn’t. So there goes your point.
Kinkajou fill me in on the Ballerina, I haven’t heard a thing.
What round are they up to and which teams are emerging as contenders?
[I can’t think of any circumstances under which it’s appropriate to talk about cutting someone’s throat whether it’s to do with funding or anything else.
It shows Roberts lost control and became abusive.]
He may have been in perfect control and executing a deliberate and considered political strategy.
What does a policy advisor do in Abbott’s office?
ruawake@1438
Makes threats.
There appears to be something happening in Boston. Not sure if related to the officer shot near University, or the Bombing
[briefly – tax to GDP ratio is a function the success of the economy.]
I’d missed this – hilariously wrong.
All are contenders apart from my Dees who are able to get busted for both tanking and drugs and are still crapfull.
Still, not too many incidents of thumb enemas and corridor evacuation that the northern game seems to produce (admittedly on a bad day)
This is live report in Boston. police pursuing suspects who are either involved in MIT/Bombing. Apparently, suggestion that suspect is throwing grenades at police!
http://boston.cbslocal.com/live-video/
DN @1432 – so you would agree that the actions of Oakshot and Windsor, in direct opposition to the conservative voting pattern of their constituents, have subverted democracy by not representing the views of their constituents but were more interested in their own longevity in Parliament.
Double oooops with cherry on top.
[For an economist, the five most terrifying words in the English language are: I can’t replicate your results. But for economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff of Harvard, there are seven even more terrifying ones: I think you made an Excel error.
Listen, mistakes happen. Especially with Excel. But hopefully they don’t happen in papers that provide the intellectual edifice for an economic experiment — austerity — that has kept millions out of work. Well, too late. As Mike Konczal of the Roosevelt Institute reported, Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, have found serious problems with Reinhart and Rogoff’s austerity-justifying work. That work, which shows that countries with public debt of 90 percent of GDP or more tend to grow slower, omitted data for five of its 19 countries, and used the wrong data for another. ]
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/04/forget-excel-this-was-reinhart-and-rogoffs-biggest-mistake/275088/
WWP @1441 – the fall in revenue and hence tax to GDP ratio under the ALP us not a result of them reducing taxes – it is a result of lower profits – a less succesful economy.
CC, as for a party’s function, it’s my opinion they’re often somewhat undemocratic. For example, we shouldn’t need conscience votes, (nearly) every vote should be a free vote.
On twitter
MASSIVE ARMORED VEHICLES AND HOMELAND SECURITY HAVE JUST ARRIVED TO THE SCENE. MULTIPLE EXPLOSIVE DEVICES FOUND.
[DN @1432 – so you would agree that the actions of Oakshot and Windsor, in direct opposition to the conservative voting pattern of their constituents, have subverted democracy by not representing the views of their constituents but were more interested in their own longevity in Parliament.]
This contradicts itself did Abbott write it for you?
Firstly you assume a representative has on obligation to obey his electors. This is just stupid to assume.
Secondly you assume that the electors would have preferred an Abbott govt when they only just finished NOT electing an LNP member which would have delivered then an Abbott govt. just stupid.
Finally to make it worse you suggest they failed in their obligation you made up that and insulted a majority of their electors who really wanted an LNP govt but somehow forgot to vote for it but then some how betraying their electorate would help get them reelected?
DN @1447 – every one is free to vote how they want – they just have to be able to deal with the consequences if they want to play outside party policy. Of course, we know what happens in the ALP if you cross the floor.