GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 56-44, unchanged from last month. More to follow.
UPDATE: The primary votes are 31% for Labor (up one), 47% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (down one). Tony Abbott’s lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister has widened from 49-45 to 49-43, and Kevin Rudd’s lead over Gillard is up from 61-35 to 62-31.
UPDATE 2: Julia Gillard is down two on approval to 38% and up two on disapproval to 58%, while Tony Abbott edges towards respectability with approval up a point to 43% and disapproval down two to 53%. Toe-to-toe questions on the Labor leadership have Gillard leading Bob Carr 50-41, Bill Shorten 52-38 and Greg Combet 53-35. Among Labor voters, Rudd leads Gillard 51-48. Joe Hockey leads Wayne Swan as preferred Treasurer 48-40, which compares with 44-44 the last time the question was asked.
UPDATE 3: Tables from GhostWhoVotes. Also, support for the carbon price is at 40% against 55% opposed, while 3% think they are better off after compensation, 37% worse off and 57% unchanged.
UPDATE (18/3/13): Essential Research
Essential Research has Labor up for the second week in a row, their primary vote up from 34% to 35% and the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 55-45 to 54-46. The Coalition primary vote is down a point to 47% and the Greens are steady on 9%. The poll also finds 58% supporting moves to reduce the number of foreign workers on 457 visas against only 24% opposed; an increase in support or the NBN since November from 69% to 73%; a fall in support for the mineral resources rent tax from 63% to 57%; 44% support for carbon pricing against 46% opposition; 48% believing a Coalition government would restore WorkChoices against 28% who think it unlikely, compared with 51% and 25% in September. A regular question on trust in various institutions found an across the board improvement since October, with the High Court and the ABC both up 11 points to 74% and 70%. Three recorded lower results than last time: religious organisations, down four to 27%, newspapers, down a point to 30%, online news media, down one to 27%, and political parties, down four to 12%.
UPDATE (19/3/13): Morgan multi-mode poll
Not yet sure how to read Morgan’s new “multi-mode” polls, which combine their existing face-to-face methodology with “online surveying and via SMS polling”, producing huge but apparently diminishing samples (3,982 this time). The results are promisingly in line with the overall trend, with Labor up 1.5% to 33%, the Coalition down 1% to 46% and the Greens down half a point to 10.5%. I am excluding this series from Bludgertrack until I get a sufficient results to produce bias measures by comparing its figures with the overall trend. The two-party results are fairly close together this time, respondent-allocation having the Coalition lead at 54.5-45.5 (down from 57.5-42.5) and the previous election method having it at 54-46 (down from 55.5-44.5), so hopefully the new methodology will mean an end to Morgan’s curious behaviour on this score.
There’s only one Simon Crean
(Sing along if you know the tune)
There’s only one Simon Creeeeaan….
An informed media source advises that Kim Jong Un will be parachuted into parliament to take over as Prime Minister.
The source noted that Mr Kim constantly has 100 per cent support from his party and 110 per cent support from the electorate.
[I reckon we have the answer to our leadership woes
Check out the man on the right]
Kim always goes on a diet when he’s planning a leadership run. I don’t see much sign of it there.
Well Crean got 13% in the last Newspoll didn’t he? The 13% who want a ‘safe pair of hands’- and not much else, I guess. Wondering how they could think that will turn things around, especially when there’s someone else with 44% support among voters.
alias
no variables or competing agendas, or opinions, or resolve. yes wheels in spins maybe, then clarity.
Alias
[Just out of passing interest, has there ever been a time in Australian political history where we have had weaker leadership on both sides?
Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd tearing one another apart, mirrored by their respective supporters in Cabinet and Caucus; Tony Abbott lacking in policies, often at odds with Joe Hockey, barely able to contain Malcolm Turnbull’s ambitions.
Have Australians ever been presented with such a woeful leadership scenario on both sides?]
I do not think it is just the leadership problem. While I do not really have an explanation as to the state of our politics, I think the leaders are just a reflection of wider problems, e.g.:
1. All government actions are reduced to economic indicators (i.e. the “Holy Market”). Australian politics used to be driven by wider issues than that.
2. Few (any?) politicians seem to have anything to say to “people” as a community. They seem to be actors in some scripted “centre right v far right” American soap opera.
3. The Labor Party as a whole has abrogated its history (many on here assert it was never a social democratic party) even though it was (and still is as far as I know) a member of the 2nd (socialist) international.
4. Australian politics has radically changed. It used to be understood as a fight between Labor and Non-Labor because Labor drove the most serious platform for this country’s future and the conservatives opposed it, but always showed they were not too insensitive to the poor.
But now (since the “90’s) the political agenda is driven by a rightist “Frei” marketeers and the Labor Party is just the unsure, disorganised respondent that tries to show it is not insensitive to the need of the rich and powerful.
5. In other words, the Liberal Party and its right-wing business supporters (e.g. media barons) drive our politics. The ALP has no answer to that dominance.
The ALP has lost its beliefs; instead of leading the politics it is now a respondent to the “frei” market ideology championed by the Liberal Party (admittedly an ideology particularly dominant in anglo-sphere countries).
6. The response on this blog, championed by the rightist Labourites, is that the ALP is now a (US-style) “progressive” party and past history must be re-written to remove reality.
It is now a paid-up “frei” market (capitalist) party but a but a little bit liberal, e.g. it may like gays soon.
It is not Julia Gillard’s fault that the ALP has lost the race. I doubt Rudd, apart from an initial bounce, will change much.
Sadly, I think the short-term future for the Country is determined.
The long-term tragedy is that the electoral system will cause this idiocy to go on for years as it is all but impossible for new ideas to come into Parliament.
Bemused:
[What genius is behind {Crean speculation}?]
Murdoch or one of his henchdogs, obviously, though I see no geniuses in his stable — just a bunch of tired old nags much like the boss.
BK
Don’t worry, the world has already been warmed up by the current joke, Swanny. I think they’ll be in good spirits about it.
😉
Just a reminder that I somewhat repaired the Wikipedia Newspoll records – which were an absolute farce prior to my repair job as a result of idiots confusing approval scores and PPM – and they can be seen at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspoll
Display Name
Lindsay Murdoch is typical of Australian journalists tilling the soil in any of the many places they work, including Canberra.
looking at Malcolm Farr’s piece, he gives the joke away with this comment:
“The critical factor will be what people think their constituents will say to them when they go home,” said a Labor source.”]
I mean of all the critical factors in replacing a leader, to say this? Does not pass the smell test.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national-news/is-simon-crean-the-man-to-rescue-labor/story-fncynjr2-1226601010695#ixzz2Nz4zQE9Y
[How many here on PB can honestly say that Conroy (and by extension/leadership responsibility), Gillard, have handled this week’s Media proposals well politically?]
I don’t know do we have an immoral intellectually bankrupt and souless media in the main in Australia. CHECK.
Would they like the cowards they are expect to hide behind a mindless ‘free speech’ argument to avoid having the possibility of being held to any standard at all, when they expect to be able make stuff-up, lie and break the law if it suits them – all with immunity. CHECK.
Do we have an opposition that will lie about everything to keep up the appearance of disaster they have been lying about every day since Abbott took over. CHECK.
Do we have a difficult diverse cross bench, that make herding cats look easy. CHECK.
Is it almost totally inevitable that whatever he did (no matter how good and brilliant, say like the NBN), the media, the opposition and some clowns here would say he’d done diabolically bad. CHECK.
We probably wont know how well he did until the 30 years expires, but if any of it at all gets past the parliament he has done brilliantly.
Beazley just physically wouldn’t be up to it anymore. He has slowed down a lot over the last few years.
Just Me
The panic is fun to watch!
[We probably wont know how well he did until the 30 years expires, but if any of it at all gets past the parliament he has done brilliantly.]
That’s something I hadn’t considered before. Obviously Conroy’s plan, whatever it is, got through the cabinet and caucus meetings.
The canberra press are getting frantic that Parliament will rise for 5 weeks and they might have to cover some policy announcements and not the theatre of government when everyone’s in town. I expect more Labor paralysis/rudd/other challenge to come to a twitter frenzy in the next two days.
Showson:
Beazley seems to be enjoying himself immensely in the US, that’s for sure.
So Obeid so far has crapped all over Sinodinos and Torbay?
How much further could this go? Could Obeid actually damage the LNP Federally as much – or perhaps even more – than it has damaged State ALP in NSW?
How ironicalment!
alias, sure. Your argument was we should not judge entire organisations based on single individuals. I agree. However you are doing exactly that (though in a positive, rather than negative way) so now I’m wondering if I should feel a little foolish for agreeing with you :P.
Farr has been plagiarising me, the bastard.
Interesting observations Swamprat
[Weren’t you due back this evening?]
Yes, here I am. Someone had to point out your hypocrisy.
[You will miss your evening medications and become even more deranged.]
OOooooooooer! You should stick to being No 1 Fanboi for Therese’s Toyboy.
I know it has been warm in Melbourne but do try and keep your IQ above room temperature.
:devil: :devil: :devil:
[Showson:
Beazley seems to be enjoying himself immensely in the US, that’s for sure.]
Sure had Rudd made a great choice appointing him to that position.
But that would be a much smaller workload than Prime Minister.
[how well he did until the 30 years expires]
The idea that this sort of stuff is recorded in Cabinet ‘Minute’ here in Australia is ‘quaint’.
It’s not. All that are in them are minimal instructions to the APS.
There are no discussion ‘minutes’ recorded – just decisions.
My dream team would be Rudd as P.M. and Gillard as Treasurer and Swan retired.
Crank
[Farr has been plagiarising me, the bastard.]
Similar company.
😀
ShowsOn@2925
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/03/17/nielsen-56-44-to-coalition-4/?comment_page=59/#comment-1582714“>ShowsOn@2925
AFAIR Gillard has no economic credentials and there are a number in the Ministry better qualified.
2844
Rossmore
[Bugler 2827 Well bloody said!]
+1
[My dream team would be Rudd as P.M. and Gillard as Treasurer and Swan retired.]
That’s not a dream, that’s a bemused hallucination.
[AFAIR Gillard has no economic credentials and there are a number in the Ministry better qualified.]
True, but it would be a good sign of party unity after a leadership change.
And frankly anyone would be better than Swan at selling economic policies.
ShowsOn@2925
My dream team was Superman and Batman and Captain America retired (I hated Captain America).
But that was when I was 5 years old.
Natasha Griggs has lost weight, dyed her hair and changed her ‘do’.
For whatever that’s worth.
@abcnews: Barnaby Joyce says he is available to run for the Lower House seat of New England, after Richard Torbay quit http://t.co/r8e9CbbQ6L
No more Barnaby. I would expect Windsor to win
WWP….
….. succinct. CHECK.
cue lies, denial. CHECK.
Crank – Now your over tanks, how goes the mining thing over there?
Didn’t Latham want Gillard to be his treasurer?
I’m not sure if that’s an argument for or against putting her in the role now…
[Natasha Griggs has lost weight, dyed her hair and changed her ‘do’.
For whatever that’s worth.]
Not much unless she’s had a brain transplant.
confessions@2932
“>confessions@2932
confessions@2932
How terribly sexist. No-one would ever say such things about a man. Your misogyny is exposed. 👿
@TelegraphNews: Apostrophe Now: A council that banned apostrophes from the names of new streets is to reverse the veto http://t.co/ISskQI2WGp
Rossmore,
[If Gillard can get the reforms up it will be a significant achievement against all the odds and the combined opposition of pretty much all the MSM. If she doesn’t she will be bruised politically, but not for want of trying. I’d rather she go down fighting, than taking the line of least resistance.]
I agree. Whatever happens, I will always admire Gillard for what she’s done to better this country.
No man would ever say that about a man, bemused. Ladies, on the other hand, talk about that kind of stuff all the time, regardless of the subject’s gender.
*ducks*
So is that it for the night in the House of Reps?
It seems to be a week of twitter walk-aways.
PvO
Mickey Arthur
Malcolm Farnsworth
While Farnsworth was an annoying Ruddist, he did used to post great videos from the years of previous Labor governments, election night speeches etc. I will miss those.
jeffemu@2942
Yep. From Live Hansard:
[ The Speaker adjourned the House until 9 a.m. tomorrow. ]
More unhingement tomorrow!
‘fess
3 times exposed.
Gee, die of shame or something.
😆
Poor bemused.
confessions
The phrase”Cannot take the heat stay out of the Kitchen”springs to mind
[How terribly sexist. No-one would ever say such things about a man. Your misogyny is exposed.]
As usual, an exception would be made in your case, bemused.
“@danielhurstbne: Re media reform: Bob Carr says he’s not in position to comment on parli timetables. “I operate within the world of cabinet solidarity””
[How terribly sexist.]
It’s no more sexist than observing that Abbott has taken to wearing sky blue ties, growing his hair longer, and trying desperately to talk in softer tones.
Psephos @ 2903
Kim always goes on a diet when he’s planning a leadership run. I don’t see much sign of it there.
It always looked to me like Bomber wore suits 2 sizes too big rather than dieting 😀