The western Sydney electorate of Greenway delivered the government a crucial win at the 2010 election, prompting much soul-searching from a Liberal Party which had been tardy in preselecting candidates in this and other key New South Wales seats. Greenway now stands as Labor’s most vulnerable seat ahead of an anticipated tidal wave in suburban Sydney.
The current boundaries of Greenway extend northwards from Blacktown and Toongabbie, about 30 kilometres west of the central business district, through Lalor Park and Kings Langley to Kellyville Ridge and Riverstone. The seat was substantially redrawn at successive redistributions before the 2007 and 2010 elections, of which the first increased the Liberal margin from 0.6% to 11.0% and the second created a Labor margin of 5.8%, boosted by a 6.5% swing to Labor at the intervening election. The more recent redistribution largely reversed the effects of the former, restoring the suburbs south of the M7 which had been accommodated in the interim by Parramatta and Chifley. The scale of the changes was such that the redrawn Greenway had more voters from Parramatta than the electorate as previously constituted. To Macquarie it lost the areas of Hawkesbury which had temporarily given it a semi-rural rather than outer suburban character.
Greenway was created in 1984 and held for Labor by margins at or near the double-digit range until 1996, when inaugural member Russell Gorman was succeeded by Frank Mossfield. Mossfield retired after a low-profile parliamentary career in 2004, after suffering a 6.5% swing that reduced his seat to the marginal zone in 2001. He was succeeded as Labor candidate by Ed Husic, spokesman for Integral Energy and a non-practising Muslim of Bosnian background. The Liberals were perhaps more astute in nominating Louise Markus, a community worker with Hillsong Church, then located in the electorate. Amid muttering of a whispering campaign targeting Husic’s religion, Markus secured a narrow victory with a 3.7% swing, aided in part by an 11.8% informal vote fuelled by a bloated field of candidates and the electorate’s large proportion of non-English speaking voters. This delayed Husic’s entry to parliament until 2010, when he won the outer western suburbs seat of Chifley.
The buffer added by the subsequent redistribution allowed Markus to comfortably survive the 2007 swing, and its effective reversal at the 2010 election had her seeking refuge in marginal Macquarie, which had absorbed the electorate’s outskirts areas. In what at first seemed a secure new seat for the party, Labor endorsed Michelle Rowland, a former Blacktown councillor. Rowland was said to have been “courted” by the party, and was imposed as candidate by the national executive with the backing of the Right. This met with displeasure among local party branches, as such interventions usually do, with critics said to have included Frank Mossfield. Rowland went on to survive a 4.8% swing at the election to retain the seat by 0.9%.
A Liberal preselection ballot held last weekend was won by Jaymes Diaz, a Blacktown immigration lawyer of Filipino extraction, who was also the party’s candidate in 2010. Diaz is associated with the Christian Right faction of state upper house MP David Clarke, and is said to have forged strong local connections through his work as a Blacktown immigration lawyer. It was reported in early 2012 that the party planned to choose the candidate from a US-style primary in a “calculated bid” to freeze out Diaz, with Tony Abbott said to favour a different candidate (there was a disputed suggestion he had approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson).
In the event the matter determined through a normal local party ballot, the result of which confirmed his strength in the local party. Sixty-nine votes were recorded for Diaz against 27 for Brett Murray, a motivational speaker and anti-bullying campaigner associated with the “soft Right” faction of Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, and a solitary vote for accountant Mark Jackson. Other high-profile contenders were former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson and Hills councillor Yvonne Keane, both of whom withdrew when it became clear Diaz had the numbers. Padding out the original field of nominees were business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jaymes.
natalie d
You cherry-picker you. 60% agree with us that Abbott is a turkey.
289 for 0.
Ah. Nat
Tell us all. Abnotts
Costed policies
Bushfire Bill@1090
Yes, I think bemused has lost it big time today. Perhaps not surprisingly, since the level of unhingement of the trilobites here on PB seems to mirror that of the OM.
Still, I see the trilobites have picked up a few new members here today. I guess the call went out to Menzies House for reinforcements.
Let’s see how much further they can ramp up their Gillard hatred when nothing at all happens again next week!
289 for 1.
Lyon!!!!!!!
Deadly.
[She had agreements in place with the indies and greens. None of the indies was ever likely to support Abbott. Bandt was pledged to support Labor.]
Hell would have frozen over before Bandt supported a Liberal PMship – once Oakeshott and Windsor were locked in they had to stay in – Oakeshott in particular has been a political dead man walking ever since he agreed to support a Lbor government – so maintaining the government for 3 years has not been that huge an achievement.
my say
There are plenty of reasons why people don’t Abbott as prime minister.
One of them is that Abbott has already been part of two governments which have taken us to war, he loves playing soldiers, shooting off machine guns, that sort of thing…
He is just stupid enough to get us entangled in an East Asian war.
And why does he only own one tie
Why does he put his hand on his heart
Like a true teacuppa. ( republican)
There very important issues one need to cover
My Say @ 1093
I’m waiting for the School halls, pink bats rubbish.
Boewar
O how I agree with
Was told by some one a few years ago, that national
Service,policy his never far away from their thoughts
Either
Bemused,
Tell us how proud you are having a lib praise u
Has it made your day
[ so maintaining the government for 3 years has not been that huge an achievement ]
What is all this crap today?
My guess is that the Noalition has had some focus group research telling them that Gillard has a growing reputation as a “tough negotiator” and for “getting stuff done” – and so they are desperate to try and counter this before it gets out of control.
But when her opponent is Abbott – a serial loser – I wish them luck with that one!
Mm
And the copper has no corosion
Underground
and will be delivering wonderful phone service
For the next 100
Years
She’s gone that was short and sweet
Must of gone to. Buy a new blue tie
Samantha Maiden has penned a pertinent article which in the Adelaide Sunday Mail carries the headline: Helpless blues. Why won’t Labor just go with Kevin?
Its thesis is that the caucus knows it faces a wipeout at the polls. It’s way past debate over whether Julia/Kevin is the better prime minister, manager, human being, person to trust and so on. It’s now a question of survival, of trying to hang on to a few seats and protect the legacy of six years in government.
But although Labor MPs know they’re doomed with Julia, they’re paralysed – in a state of ‘learned helplessness’ – and unable to switch back to Kevin, their only possible saviour.
It may be too late. Kevin may not accept “a poisoned chalice offered so late that there was no real prospect of saving the show”.
I am old enough to remember people saying in 1975 that the Liberals will bring back conscription and lead us into a war – Borewar and My Say both seem to have flipped back in time – put on their 18 inch flares and hopped into their metaphorical brown torana and driven off into the sunset together.
my say@1111
What post was that my say? And what was the praise for?
I certainly won’t win any praise for agreeing with any of their policies or people.
I think you are just being a troll again.
[But although Labor MPs know they’re doomed with Julia, they’re paralysed – in a state of ‘learned helplessness’ – and unable to switch back to Kevin, their only possible saviour.]
But… Hartcher already told us it was the “bystander effect”. They can’t both be right.
How does bad pop psychology help us understand the situation?
blackburn
[In 2013, the voters are quite likely to make their minds up early – possibly even already – and then switch off.]
Or they may not.
But thanks for your concern….
my say@1113
“Copper has no corrosion”????
Where do you get your rubbish from?
Bemused is in Piers mode today.
[But although Labor MPs know they’re doomed with Julia, they’re paralysed – in a state of ‘learned helplessness’]
Well the govt certainly doesn’t look or behave as its paralysed, so I’m not sure what would prompt such an assessment.
CTar:
A day just like any other day then.
CTar1
Good to see the Brumbles (sic) smacked the Sharks last night. Top of the table champs at the mo. Could it be Canberra’s year ?
I don’t know Bemused but I have known Piers. And Bemused, you’re no Piers Akerman!
But although Labor MPs know they’re doomed with Julia, they’re paralysed – in a state of ‘learned helplessness’ – and unable to switch back to Kevin, their only possible saviour.
Doesn’t Samantha Maiden know that when using ‘Kevin’ and ‘saviour’ in the same sentence that saviour must be spelt with a capital ‘S’?
Toorak Toff@1115
And of course plenty of other journalists are saying much the same, Carlton, Hartcher etc.
Put on planet PB, all is different.
The nice thing about not facing reality though, is that the disaster will come as a complete surprise and not be preceded by months of worry and depression.
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Does_copper_rust_or_not_rust
Does copper rust or not rust?
Answer:
No, Copper Does Not Rust… It Corrodes However, it will oxidize and turn dark brown
Zoomster @ 1119
I am not convinced that the voters are going to like being in continual campaign mode from February to September – despite the PM’s little bon mot of a “time for campaigning and a time for governing”. By the time the official campaign starts with the issue of the writs in August they will be well and truly fed up – and based on a previous precedent of a long campaign – blame the government.
[ It may be too late. Kevin may not accept “a poisoned chalice offered so late that there was no real prospect of saving the show”. ]
Yes, this meme was first aired last week. I think some in the OM are beginning to realize how silly they sound, and are trying to prepare an excuse for how they got things so wrong – especially given that Rudd failed to challenge on schedule this week.
The reality is probably that he just didn’t have the numbers. Most likely he didn’t even come close. But the meme will be that he has decided not to accept the “poisoned chalice”.
Simultaneously, they seem to be ramping up the “it’s all over anyway, so what does it matter?” meme. But how they think they can keep this up for another 6 months – particularly if there is some more modest improvements in the polls – I just don’t know. It smacks of desperation to me.
The media are, of course, victims of their own narrative.
We all know – because the media tells us so – that both parties are As Bad As Each Other. We all know that neither show any sentiment, that they are cold, hard and rational, that they will Do Anything For Power and that they are driven by focus groups and polling.
All of which means, of course, that Kevin Rudd should be PM and Julia Gillard shouldn’t be.
To stick with Gillard over Rudd means that Labor MPs aren’t driven by cold rationality alone, that they don’t put being in power at all costs first, that they aren’t poll driven and don’t listen to focus groups.
Since this is inherently impossible, there must be another explanation for their behaviour…
I mean, the polls tell us that Rudd is a likeable fellow who is fun to be around, and they’re never wrong, are they?
poroti – Looking so it seems.
They’re hammering at the moment.
I may have to find my beenie and gloves to have a look later.
It’s gone Autumn here. Ms Germany 2002 put the heater on this morning on the way to the shops.
I was being subversive as usual – sunroof and window open.
She replied with more hot air.
Me, out voted.
Toorak Toff@1125
I appreciate that reassurance. Please advise CTar1, he seems confused. 😀
There u go
As the person who use to order
Most of the copper
Is sitting next to me
Lol
blackburnpseph
voters complain that we’ve been in continual campaign mode since mid 2010. I think they’re used to it by now.
my say@1128
Which contradicts what you said earlier about no corrosion.
Now I hope you all read
1128
But how could be used be wrong
[It’s now a question of survival, of trying to hang on to a few seats and protect the legacy of six years in government.]
It is actually a legacy of three years in government because the first three years got trashed in June 2010.
Regarding Tony Abbott’s Indigenous policy and trauancy- the plan is to fine parents whose children don’t attend school. I think with on the spot fines. Does that apply to ALL parents, or only Indigenous ones? The media did not ask. Just wondering.
Does anyone know the 2party preferred for WA election result?
bemused
journalists were confidently predicting that Howard would win, all the way to election day in 2007.
And, of course, they’ve been cheerfully predicting Gillard was gorn fairly constantly over the last two years.
I don’t think I’d place much faith in their predictions.
http://www.google.com/#sclient=tablet-gws&hl=en&site=&source=hp&q=picture+of+coroded+copper+&oq=picture+of+coroded+copper+&gs_l=tablet-gws.3…2151.13359.1.15581.26.13.0.13.4.1.290.3196.2-13.13.0.les%3B..0.0…1ac.1.6.tablet-gws.Qp-CorFpero&psj=1&bav=on.2,or.&bvm=bv.43828540,d.dGI&fp=2bd0a4a4921acd15&biw=1280&bih=800
Exhibit
One
Samantha Maiden ,has she been watching SpongeBob Squarepants ?
[The Jellyspotters and Kevin’s fans from the SpongeBob Squarepants™ “We Love You Kevin]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eVUboiavc0
Zoomster @ 1135
Just because you are used to something doesn’t mean that you necessarily like it – and will not react against at the earliest possible opportunity.
my say@1137
What on earth are you raving on about?
Now you are arguing with yourself. 😆
zoomster@1140
Howard had rat cunning, political instinct and an ability to learn from mistakes and modify behaviour.
That is the difference.
bemused
what, are you now saying Howard won in 2007? Because if not, I can’t see what on earth your comment has to do with anything….
zoomster:
I don’t think you can try to sensibly explain the media’s commentary at all, but appreciate you trying to.
‘fess – The repetition does me in.
Kev-07 will not be ‘back’.
CTar1
[It’s gone Autumn here. Ms Germany 2002 put the heater on this morning on the way to the shops.
I was being subversive as usual – sunroof and window open.
She replied with more hot air.]
Crikey, “My Mother the Car” was a documentary 😆
[The show follows the exploits of attorney David Crabtree (played by Jerry Van Dyke), who, while shopping at a used car lot for a station wagon to serve as a second family car, instead purchases a dilapidated 1928 Porter touring car. Crabtree heard the car call his name in a woman’s voice, which later turned out to be that of his deceased mother, Gladys (voiced by Ann Sothern). The car, a valuable antique, is a reincarnation of his mother who talks (only to Crabtree) through the car’s radio.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Mother_the_Car
The Samantha Maiden piece reads like a searing dose of reality, this time not in a limited readership paper like the SMH but in the mass circulation papers, the Sunday Herald Sun and whatever the equivalent is in Sydney on a Sunday.
In the case of the Herald Sun there are no news articles try to stir the leadership issue up. The comment piece just sits there looking like a statement of the blindingly obvious. Any Labor MP in a marginal seat in Victoria, notwithstanding the state Libs’ woes (and in fact Napthine has got himself off to a pretty good start so that is start to neutralise already) will surely be struck by the understated common sense of the piece.
There is no logical gap there. These MPs know their seats are in huge jeoparty. And they know the time to act is now; that by setting sail from Canberra at the end of this week still helmed by Julia Gillard is a death march.