The western Sydney electorate of Greenway delivered the government a crucial win at the 2010 election, prompting much soul-searching from a Liberal Party which had been tardy in preselecting candidates in this and other key New South Wales seats. Greenway now stands as Labor’s most vulnerable seat ahead of an anticipated tidal wave in suburban Sydney.
The current boundaries of Greenway extend northwards from Blacktown and Toongabbie, about 30 kilometres west of the central business district, through Lalor Park and Kings Langley to Kellyville Ridge and Riverstone. The seat was substantially redrawn at successive redistributions before the 2007 and 2010 elections, of which the first increased the Liberal margin from 0.6% to 11.0% and the second created a Labor margin of 5.8%, boosted by a 6.5% swing to Labor at the intervening election. The more recent redistribution largely reversed the effects of the former, restoring the suburbs south of the M7 which had been accommodated in the interim by Parramatta and Chifley. The scale of the changes was such that the redrawn Greenway had more voters from Parramatta than the electorate as previously constituted. To Macquarie it lost the areas of Hawkesbury which had temporarily given it a semi-rural rather than outer suburban character.
Greenway was created in 1984 and held for Labor by margins at or near the double-digit range until 1996, when inaugural member Russell Gorman was succeeded by Frank Mossfield. Mossfield retired after a low-profile parliamentary career in 2004, after suffering a 6.5% swing that reduced his seat to the marginal zone in 2001. He was succeeded as Labor candidate by Ed Husic, spokesman for Integral Energy and a non-practising Muslim of Bosnian background. The Liberals were perhaps more astute in nominating Louise Markus, a community worker with Hillsong Church, then located in the electorate. Amid muttering of a whispering campaign targeting Husic’s religion, Markus secured a narrow victory with a 3.7% swing, aided in part by an 11.8% informal vote fuelled by a bloated field of candidates and the electorate’s large proportion of non-English speaking voters. This delayed Husic’s entry to parliament until 2010, when he won the outer western suburbs seat of Chifley.
The buffer added by the subsequent redistribution allowed Markus to comfortably survive the 2007 swing, and its effective reversal at the 2010 election had her seeking refuge in marginal Macquarie, which had absorbed the electorate’s outskirts areas. In what at first seemed a secure new seat for the party, Labor endorsed Michelle Rowland, a former Blacktown councillor. Rowland was said to have been “courted” by the party, and was imposed as candidate by the national executive with the backing of the Right. This met with displeasure among local party branches, as such interventions usually do, with critics said to have included Frank Mossfield. Rowland went on to survive a 4.8% swing at the election to retain the seat by 0.9%.
A Liberal preselection ballot held last weekend was won by Jaymes Diaz, a Blacktown immigration lawyer of Filipino extraction, who was also the party’s candidate in 2010. Diaz is associated with the Christian Right faction of state upper house MP David Clarke, and is said to have forged strong local connections through his work as a Blacktown immigration lawyer. It was reported in early 2012 that the party planned to choose the candidate from a US-style primary in a “calculated bid” to freeze out Diaz, with Tony Abbott said to favour a different candidate (there was a disputed suggestion he had approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson).
In the event the matter determined through a normal local party ballot, the result of which confirmed his strength in the local party. Sixty-nine votes were recorded for Diaz against 27 for Brett Murray, a motivational speaker and anti-bullying campaigner associated with the “soft Right” faction of Mitchell MP Alex Hawke, and a solitary vote for accountant Mark Jackson. Other high-profile contenders were former Rose Tattoo singer Gary “Angry” Anderson and Hills councillor Yvonne Keane, both of whom withdrew when it became clear Diaz had the numbers. Padding out the original field of nominees were business coach Robert Borg, gym owner Rowan Dickens, senior financial analyst Mathew Marasigan, marketing manager Ben Jackson, Hills councillor Mark Owen Taylor, security supervisor Renata Lusica and, curiously, Josephina Diaz, mother of Jaymes.
David Uren of News Limited is the other panellist.
Boerwar@1011
The ‘action man’ side of abbott seems to have been ‘toned’ down (no pun) of late ?
“@ABCNews24: Now on @ABCBigIdeas, @PhillipAdams_1 & panel chew over #auspol, leadership & catastrophic choices http://t.co/3YXdj8bPNi”
I just noticed Wyatt Roy is 5001/1 odds to lead the Libs at the next election.
You heard of Murphy’s Law, now I give you Murdoch’s Law – http://t.co/IThE53Qw9U
[I just noticed Wyatt Roy is 5001/1 odds to lead the Libs at the next election.]
What’s Sophie Mirabopoulos?
guytaur@1047
Now you are rivalling MB for comic genius and have obviously been learning lines from confessions too.
There is a better than even chance Rudd will lead Labor into the next election.
And it is a virtual certainty that he will be around after that election.
Get used to the idea.
Diogenes
Voters have no right to complain about choosing bad politicians or policy, if they are not prepared to take a little time to inform themselves in advance about the choices.
They can’t have it both ways. If they are going to complain (and they do), then they also have to wear criticism for making wilfully ignorant choices.
Would you buy a car or house without doing some basic homework, and then get outraged at the lack of sympathy from the world when you got a dud?
She isn’t listed Psephos
pretty much a myth that Gillard has a more difficult parliament to deal with- probably this hung parliament has been fairly easy with these independents. And the Senate so much easier than what Rudd had.
Any competent administrator should have achieved the same.
And the only reason has survived so long as leader is the faction fear for their own power, else she would have been gone last time.
I think the Girard myths developed here are starting to crack under reality-
Finns
That would look good on a t shirt
TP
good to see you admit that Rudd wasn’t a competent administrator.
First step on the road to recovery.
‘pretty much a myth that Gillard has a more difficult parliament to deal with- probably this hung parliament has been fairly easy with these independents.’
Brought to you by Peta Credlin. Authorized by Brian Loughnane.
Acknowledgement: the Liberal Party gratefully acknowledges Mr TP for originating this idea.
Hmmm. Could this be us?
zoomster:
Tim Watts seems quite a sensible fellow if his tweets are anything to go by.
zoomster@1062
The Public Service has plenty of competent administrators, that is their job.
Being a political leader is rather different.
Keep demolishing straw men.
bemused
thanks for admitting I demolished it.
[pretty much a myth that Gillard has a more difficult parliament to deal with- probably this hung parliament has been fairly easy with these independents.]
Seriously TP?? And it is so easy that Tony FAILED to get their support when they have always been Coalition leaning.
zoomster@1067
Yes, straw men are easy and always irrelevant. But keep setting them up and knocking them down if it makes you feel better.
Watching MT on Australian Agenda. Fark PvO and Paul Kelly are obsessed with trying to get MT to say baaaad ABC for not being balanced and whether funds should be cut.
Right.
so both bemused and TP admit Rudd wasn’t a competent administrator.
As for strawmen, bemused, public servants aren’t expected to negotiate votes through Parliament, which was the topic under discussion.
Oh, and I didn’t set that one up. TP did.
bemused
to make it simple for you: TP’s argument was that Gillard should not be given credit for negotiating bills through a House where Labor holds a minority, because any competent administrator can do that.
So TP – not me – is saying that Gillard is a competent administrator.
Rudd, on the other hand, could not negotiate bills through a House where Labor held a minority.
By TP’s own logic, he is an incompetent administrator.
Clearly, your argument is not with me, but TP.
[pretty much a myth that Gillard has a more difficult parliament to deal with- probably this hung parliament has been fairly easy with these independents.]
Because Gillard’s negotiation skills have nothing to do with turning that hung parliament into a very functional operation. No sirree, she just got lucky. All those bills just fluked their way through.
Riiiiight.
zoomster@1071
Huh???
So now it requires an administrator to negotiate votes through parliament when there are agreements in place with the independents and greens? Blimey… no wonder the Govt is in strife.
Great performance by Piers this morning on Insiders. Must be hard to always be ganged up on 3 to 1, as he and Gerard Henderson and Niki Savva always are.
Keep demolishing straw men.
Good line for the Libs possible advertising campaign – Kevin Rudd, the Man of Straw.
And more relevant to this thread, Rowland will be killed.
bemused
[So now it requires an administrator to negotiate votes through parliament when there are agreements in place with the independents and greens?]
That was your argument, not mine.
natalie d
Even harder when he has to face them without any facts or sound argument.
[After a marathon scrutineering session by the WA Electoral Commission on Saturday, a week after the polls closed, Labor candidates were declared narrow winners in three knife-edge seats – Collie-Preston, Kimberley and Midland.
In Collie-Preston, Labor member Mick Murray officially retained his seat by just 59 votes.
In Kimberley, despite a strong showing by the Greens, Labor candidate Josie Farrer came out on top by 1154 votes.
And in Midland, Labor powerbroker Michelle Roberts officially held onto her seat by the slimmest of margins – just 23 votes.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/16384318/crushed-alp-claims-three-seats/
[Good line for the Libs possible advertising campaign – Kevin Rudd, the Man of Straw.]
Yep, it’s pretty obvious.
Zomster – agreed, they don’t have any of those things, just Labor rhetoric and spin.
Zomster – agreed, they don’t have any of those things, just Labor rhetoric and spin.
Just Me@1074
This empty claim is made because there is so little else that can be claimed.
She had agreements in place with the indies and greens. None of the indies was ever likely to support Abbott. Bandt was pledged to support Labor.
Where is the big achievement?
Where is the big achievement?
Like Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard defeated a sitting Prime Minister…
natalie d@1076
Long may such ‘great performances’ continue. They expose him as a complete loon.
Come on, you know better than this.
The “agreements” were to guarantee confidence and supply.
There was nothing in there about guaranteed support for any particular government legislation…
zoomster@1079
Wrong as usual.
[ None of the indies was ever likely to support Abbott.]
Conservative independents, from conservative electorates? not “ever likely to support Abbott”?
Oh well, if you think so.
Bemused – again, I love how you lot see things so differently. Fortunately for me, around 55% of Australians agree with me.
mimhoff@1088
Formally, yes. But it is pointless to then oppose a lot of the legislative program and if the legislative program is reasonable why would any of it be opposed?
A. Female troll
Is the first one
Lol
[Fortunately for me, around 55% of Australians agree with me.]
Unfortunately for you, that will change quickly if Abbott actually gets into power.
[which is exactly why votes shift very dramatically during an election campaign, and issues that the journos drama-queen over have little or no impact in the real world.]
Normally this would be true but the early call of the date has meant that the previous line between election campaign and non election campaign has become very blurred. In 2013, the voters are quite likely to make their minds up early – possibly even already – and then switch off.
nd
‘Great performance by Piers this morning on Insiders. Must be hard to always be ganged up on 3 to 1, as he and Gerard Henderson and Niki Savva always are.’
OK Piers, quit with the sock puppet routine already.
Yeah. I feel really, really sorry for Piers, perennial victim of the evil trot troika that so dominates Insiders. I take it you have not had the bliss of sharing Pier’s workplace environment?
As for WYSIWYG Savva, she has certainly transitioned seamlessly from being a Coalition hack for Costello, to being a Coalition hack for the entire Coalition.
Henderson is generally treated politely because he rates polite treatment.
natalie d@1091
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/03/16/seat-of-the-week-greenway/?comment_page=22/#comment-1579372“>natalie d@1091
Only while Gillard remains leader.
Of course while she remains, the Libs would probably do better if they had a leader who was not so loathed.
Nat,
What’s your position
Over at. Lib headquarters
Or are u. Peta
Just wondering
[ Emma Alberici @albericie
@chriskkenny @ElliotG78 I am not a member of the ALP so you prove you have scant regard for truth or accuracy #getyourfactsright
Retweeted by joy cooper ]
I wonder if they’ve kissed and made up yet 🙂
I’ve been weeding out old stuff on the PC and found this from Business Spectator, 7th October, 2009. A lot has happened since then
[Is there any reason anyone, apart from the staunchest of rusted on supporters would vote Liberal at the next federal election? It’s pretty hard to find one.
The Liberals are in disarray over emissions trading. They are flogging a dead horse in calling for economic stimulus to be wound back and Joe Hockey made them look like a bunch of rabid far right wingers when he recently questioned whether saving jobs with the stimulus was money well spent…..
Oh yes and just to make matters worse a recent magazine poll put Malcolm Turnbull just above the North Korean despot Kim Jong IL and one place below European sex fiend Josef Fritzel as being among the top ten people Australians hate.
When you’re hot you’re hot and when you’re not you’re not.]
[In 2013, the voters are quite likely to make their minds up early – possibly even already – and then switch off.]
And your evidence for this is?