Seat of the week: Capricornia

It took the landslide defeats of the Whitlam and Keating governments to loosen Labor’s grip on the central Queensland seat of Capricornia. The risk of a repeat has increased with the recently announced retirement of sitting member Kirsten Livermore.

The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland. Rockhampton has kept the seat strong for Labor for most of its history, the party’s only defeats after 1961 coming with the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments in 1975 and 1996 (the margin on the former occasion being 136 votes).

The proverbial baseball bat having been wielded in 1996, the seat was recovered for Labor in 1998 by Kirsten Livermore, member of the “soft Left” tendency associated with Martin and Laurie Ferguson. Livermore picked up an 8.8% swing on her debut and retained the seat with reasonably comfortable margins thereafter, until an 8.7% swing in 2007 boosted it to very safe territory. Then came a 0.7% redistribution adjustment followed by an 8.4% swing amid the Queensland backlash of 2010, which reined it back to 3.7%. In December 2012 she announced she would not seek another term, as she wished to spend more time with her family.

A preselection to choose Livermore’s successor was held in February and won by Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner, former Belyando Shire mayor and current Isaac Regional councillor. This was despite the local party ballot being won 65-37 by Paul Hoolihan, who along with most of his Labor colleagues lost his seat of Keppel at the 2012 state election. However, Hoolihan was overwhelmed by a 41-9 to win for Freeleagus in the 50% component of the vote determined by the state party’s electoral college, which consists mostly of union delegates. Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that Freeleagus was backed by the Left faction CFMEU, but also harnessed support from the AWU Right at the behest of Wayne Swan. The implication appeared to be that this was a counter to Kevin Rudd, whose “Old Guard” Right faction included Hoolihan. The deal was also said to require that the Left back AWU Right over Old Guard candidates in future state preselections.

The Liberal National Party has again endorsed its candidate from 2010, Michelle Landry, who owns a small book-keeping business in Yeppoon. Landry won preselection ahead of real estate agent Alan Cornick and anti-council amalgamation campaigner Paul Lancaster.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,019 comments on “Seat of the week: Capricornia”

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  1. Jackol

    FWIW Reachtel argue that rob ovals are more accurate than having a real person call as people are less likely to say what they think is the popular or “correct” thing to say.

    Not saying I agree with them but robopolls are widely used on the US are seem pretty kosher.

  3. mari

    I have never been a subscriber to The Age – cheapskate – but I used to buy it to read at lunchtime at work. Now it would require me to drive down to the nearest town (no home delivery in this neck of the woods) so we order it to be reserved on Thursdays, as my family like the Green Guide.

    However, I start the day by reading the Age online and am not looking forward to paying for that. Cheapskate again!

  5. guytaur

    The Ballieu govt is in strife. Their conduct has been deceitful in other areas. The health funding goes to the heart of the lies of the Baillie govt., and has ramfications. So does taking unions such as the Teachers Union, and rhe CFMEU and AWU to Court in an attempt to bankrupt them has national ramifications too. Newspoll last night has Vic State Labor 53/47, and Ballieu’s personal ratings taking another dive. Remember they only hold a one seat majority in the parliament.

  6. victoria

    It will be interesting to see the MSM reaction when the Liberals get rid of their sitting, democratically-elected premier…

  8. I’ve quickly flicked through the new-look Age, SMH and CT websites. They are an incredible mish-mash of bits and pieces, with an extraordinary number of items crowded onto the front page.

    It’s a bit like walking into one of those bargain basement type shops where miscellaneous items are scattered all over.

    Perhaps Fairfax aims to become the bargain basement of journalism.

  9. [She pledged five things to improve western Sydney: by putting Australian jobs first; delivering high-speed broadband, improving education; insuring people against disability; and helping with the cost of living.]

    I confess that I am mildly cheered by these first signs of simple outline of a vision.

    Dont get overly excited about Western Sydney though. Election will be won in QLD if it is to be – only held elsewhere.

    “Impromptu political debate”

    Sure, though Phony would me mad to agree, and at 54-46 up, he’s under no pressure to do so.

  11. OMG Mad Monckton is outside Rooty Hill RSL with some ageing, placard-holding rabble rousers.

    Don’t these people have ANY self-respect?!

  13. Lefty e

    If you have not done yourself a favour yet, listen to the audio as linked by Rossmore re the corruption and/or incompetence or both of the Baillieu govt

  14. [lizzie
    Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 10:31 am | PERMALINK
    mari

    I have never been a subscriber to The Age – cheapskate – but I used to buy it to read at lunchtime at work. Now it would require me to drive down to the nearest town (no home delivery in this neck of the woods) so we order it to be reserved on Thursdays, as my family like the Green Guide.

    However, I start the day by reading the Age online and am not looking forward to paying for that. Cheapskate again!]

    Sorry glad I put ? mark in, 😉 Not cheapskate prudent is the word!!

  15. BH,
    even so, it gives Labor an opportunity to take the gloves off and accuse them outright (and rightly so) that they collude and conspire to bring down the government through propaganda. If, as you say Sheridan is his mate, why do they have lunch at Newscorpse offices? Why not at a restaurant, too public. Exactly. LOTO meets privately with newscorpse honcho’s at newscorpse offices. Why? Only one inference can be drawn from it. Conspiracy to control the narrative to get Abbott elected.
    Put in context with the offer to Gen Pestraeus it fits. Put in context with Mordors other activities in UK and USA it collectively identifies Mordor as the puppet master.
    It is the smoking gun, the missing link from Australia that ties the UK enquiry and the US Fox operation together in a larger worldwide conspiracy to place his people into govt.

  16. lizzie

    If you are going to pay for a product that product has to be worth paying for. Basically like many of us you have come to a sensible conclusion that the product is not worth paying for.

    That is not being a cheapskate.

  17. Kevin Bonham,

    [My concern there is mainly with robopolls commissioned by vested interest groups, parties and the like, ie “internal polling”. I’m not fussed about media (though a little wary when it’s Andrew Bolt) because I’m not aware of any cases of a newspaper commissioning a political poll then not releasing it because they didn’t like the results. After all, for the media that’s just money down the drain. (If anyone is aware of such a case – that is proven – I’d be interested to hear about it.)

    In the case of the present polls, if they had shown Labor with very narrow leads they would have still been very newsworthy, if they’d shown a change to Rudd would have made no difference to stated voter intention that would have been newsworthy, and if they’d shown Labor holding firm in those seats that would have been newsworthy too – pretty much whatever the finding they would have been able to make some sort of story out of it.]
    Thanks for the clarification. You could be right about newsworthyness, but if it were “safe seats are still safe”, I doubt even the commissioner would care. My concerns were more along the lines of why Fairfax felt the need to commission a poll purely because Western Sydney is (again) the topic de vogue, rather than discuss more or less anything else that actually affects people’s lives. You know, what politics is actually for.

    I assume there a way of countering the effect of refusals, whatever that effect may be (possibly predominantly ALP voters sick of all the crap “polls” are used for. I got polled my Nielsen (?) once, and got really shirty about the dishonest and limited way they asked a question on asylum seekers).

    There is also an interesting discrepancy between the ReachTEll Vic poll and the Newspoll. Maybe the Liberals only picked up ground recently, as with Labor in Queensland when a similar discrepancy occured.

    I was afraid of misreading your posts and blog entries. I’m glad you were around to correct it before I misinformed someone.

  18. confessions

    Leone linked details of what the pensioners will be receiving in the next few weeks to assist them with the clean energy package. Perhaps someone should tell this to the buffoons

  19. [Think at least 3 or 4 PBers have also stopped subscribing to fairfax publications. Victoria,BH Lizzie ???]

    Don’t forget me.

  20. silentmajority

    I have been wondering why PMJG has been so relaxed of late. It seems that a meme is developing and the hubris on Abbott’s face will be wiped off shortly.

    Anyhow off for a while. Catch you guys later

  21. Boerwar

    [Here is an excellent piece of news. Mokhtar Bel-mokhtar is dead.]
    It would appear that as was so often the case in Iraq and Afghanistan such commanders are “killed” many times before they actually die.

    [Mokhtar Belmokhtar may be ‘alive and well’

    …militant website discussions said in a message posted on several forums that Belmoktar was “alive and well and leading the battles himself”,….
    Ahrar Press, an independent Arabic media organisation, also reported that a source in Belmoktar’s group denied claims of his death, SITE reported.]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/algeria/9906233/Mokhtar-Belmokhtar-may-be-alive-and-well.html

  22. c itizen If only Turnbull were interested but he’s keeping his job only so long as he follows orders.

    Costello and Hockey need asset sales so the NBN will be gorn in its present form.

  23. guytaur

    My real regret is what others have been tweeting: those broadsheets have so many uses around the house. The small papers are useless!

  24. Diogenes,

    I haven’t quoted Jackol in full. I suspect he may actually agree with you. It was from yesterday, I think. I was just using it for an indulgent anecdote about robocalls in general.

  25. victoria:

    Surely the presence of Monckton demonstrates just what a farce this lot are? He’s not even an Australian citizen much less an Australian taxpayer.

  26. lizzie,

    [Now it would require me to drive down to the nearest town (no home delivery in this neck of the woods) so we order it to be reserved on Thursdays, as my family like the Green Guide.]

    Gosh, where do you live? Cambarville? Even we got the paper deliverd to us by a guy in a ute.

  27. [Darn
    Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 10:47 am | PERMALINK
    Think at least 3 or 4 PBers have also stopped subscribing to fairfax publications. Victoria,BH Lizzie ???

    Don’t forget me.]

    Would never forget you Darn 😉

    BTW Lizzie on second though I am now amending prudent to “canny” in casa there is Scottish blood in you? If Poroti is around I am sure he would find a Utube clip on “canniness” of Scots :devil:

  31. Should be an interesting week in Spring St coming up!

    This wouldn’t be the same Tony Knutt who was Howard’s CoS would it?

  32. Dio
    A Bludger analysed the list in detail some squillion posts ago. As an overarching claim, it is one your typical Liberal lies.

    Those Liberals. So cynical.

  33. silentmajority Definitely only one interpretation can be drawn from Abbott going to the headquarters but which journo, media outlet, or shockjock is going to make anything of it.

    It’s so frustrating that blatancy and arrogance wins the day where Abbott and the LNP are concerned.

    Cartoonists are the only media people with any gumption and they get it right 99% of the time – even when critical of my side. They are mostly a class act.

  34. Oh no. Colless reckons in today’s Oz that the Liberals want to make Howard the next GG.

    Nooooooo…. a G who took us to two wars… an infantile prime minister who plays soldiers, and hangs around with a warhawk neo con fanboi….

    More war here we come.

  35. Diog –
    Yes, I have heard that robopolling has a decent rep in the US. As I said, I’m trying to keep an open mind.

    I was actually trying to prompt one of the more psephologically inclined to maybe check Reachtel’s Queensland election performance, or link any independent performance appraisal if one has been done. In lieu of that, Reachtel is totally untested as far as I’m concerned – newbies with no track record. That doesn’t mean their polls have no value, but unlike Newspoll, Essential, Morgan we have no history to give us guidance on how reliable their figures are.

    That’s why it concerns me that so much is being made of any Reachtel results, and it strikes me that the media are more than happy to spin a story based on these polls from a company with no pedigree because it’s cheap and suits their narrative.

  37. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits
    Have to scroll way, way down and use magnifying glass to find ‘opinion’ on SMH site.]

    Given the ‘opinion’ we’ve seen lately, I’m counting that as an improvement!

  38. lizzie

    when abbott is PM howard wont be GG, Hyacinth will be, just to prove abbott doesnt have a problem being told what to do by women

  39. [If you have not done yourself a favour yet, listen to the audio as linked by Rossmore re the corruption and/or incompetence or both of the Baillieu govt]

    I will Victoria, but Bailieu is the least of our problems. He’s a one-termer, and there’s really no point wasting energy on defeating him. He’s gone as far as Im concerned.

    What an odious govt he runs too: check the school funding elitist debacle today.

  40. mari

    Not me Scottish, but OH is of Scottish/Border descent, tho born Sydney. Funnily enough, he has no idea of money at all, so the genes went haywire! But if you put him in a kilt, and with reddish beard and bushy eyebrows he is typical Scot.

    Bugler
    Not as far as Cambarville. Just a bit off the beaten track, I suppose 🙂

  42. Jackol

    I don’t think nearly as much notice has been taken of the Reachtel results as if they were Newspoll.

    If Newspoll did a Western Suburbs special and replicated those results, all hell would have broken loose.

    I’m with you on Reachtel. We just don’t know how good or bad they are.

  43. 1697
    dave
    [mari@1683

    >Think at least 3 or 4 PBers have also stopped subscribing to fairfax publications. Victoria,BH Lizzie ???

    I read the Fin Review daily for close to 30 years.

    Stopped last year and won’t be going back.]

    I read The Oz and the SMH pretty closely for about 25 years, plus additional bits from here and there. Typically spent half my weekend reading the papers.

    Stopped all of them about the mid 2000s.

    They have lost me forever.

    (Though I note that, from a purely graphical point of view, the new ‘tabloid’ SMH/Age web site look is a lot easier on these tired old eyes.)

  44. jeffemu
    Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 8:40 am | PERMALINK
    I’m sharing the pic around as we type

    If you are still around
    For what it is worth I put the photo of TA with a suitable caption onto Twitter still being retweeted as I comment

  46. leone

    ‘”We don’t use our freezer, we don’t cook in the oven, we have to make sure to unplug everything.”‘

    I praise their devotion to slowing down the onset of AGW.

    But why does the phrase ‘cynical Liberal lies’ come to mind? Someone should track these good folk down their rathole.

  47. A bit more about pensions and electricity bills, just in case any of you have to deal with angry pensioners moaning about what Labor’s ‘Carbon Tax’ has done to them.

    Most people who are not receiving a benefit won’t know about the Pension Supplement. It’s part of the pension payment and is added to the base rate. It contains all the added extras – the utilities allowance, the prescription subsidy, telephone allowance, GST compensation payment and – on 20 March – the Clean Energy Supplement.

    As of this week the payment is $60.60 perfortnight for singles and $45.70 each for couples. It will be much more on 20 March. It’s all indexed and goes up evey six months. If you wish, you can have Centrelink hold on to part of this payment so you get a lump sum every three months, handy for paying the electricity bill if it arrives quarterly.

    Howard introduced the utilities payment, but only for age pensioners as part of his scheme to suck up to the oldies while bashing the disabled. Those on DSP and others missed out. Labor extended it to all those who get the same rate of payment as pensioners and increased the amount substantially.

    So – here’s something else that needs to be talked about a lot. Our federal government is pretty much paying the electricity bills of all those getting this payment. It gets even better. The states also give small discounts on electricity bills to pensioners and others on certain benefits. So what’s all the whinging about?

  49. Rossmg,

    [when abbott is PM howard wont be GG, Hyacinth will be, just to prove abbott doesnt have a problem being told what to do by women]

    Hyacinth from “Keeping Up Appearances” or Hyacinthius the Greek athlete and lover of Apollo and the West Wind, who was slain by a discus thrown of course by a spitefully redirected gale, who Apollo then mournfully turned into a plant?

    Lizzie,

    Worth a guess 😛 . You do make me afraid that I know people you know, and so may have to be careful with what I write.

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