Seat of the week: Capricornia

It took the landslide defeats of the Whitlam and Keating governments to loosen Labor’s grip on the central Queensland seat of Capricornia. The risk of a repeat has increased with the recently announced retirement of sitting member Kirsten Livermore.

The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland. Rockhampton has kept the seat strong for Labor for most of its history, the party’s only defeats after 1961 coming with the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments in 1975 and 1996 (the margin on the former occasion being 136 votes).

The proverbial baseball bat having been wielded in 1996, the seat was recovered for Labor in 1998 by Kirsten Livermore, member of the “soft Left” tendency associated with Martin and Laurie Ferguson. Livermore picked up an 8.8% swing on her debut and retained the seat with reasonably comfortable margins thereafter, until an 8.7% swing in 2007 boosted it to very safe territory. Then came a 0.7% redistribution adjustment followed by an 8.4% swing amid the Queensland backlash of 2010, which reined it back to 3.7%. In December 2012 she announced she would not seek another term, as she wished to spend more time with her family.

A preselection to choose Livermore’s successor was held in February and won by Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner, former Belyando Shire mayor and current Isaac Regional councillor. This was despite the local party ballot being won 65-37 by Paul Hoolihan, who along with most of his Labor colleagues lost his seat of Keppel at the 2012 state election. However, Hoolihan was overwhelmed by a 41-9 to win for Freeleagus in the 50% component of the vote determined by the state party’s electoral college, which consists mostly of union delegates. Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that Freeleagus was backed by the Left faction CFMEU, but also harnessed support from the AWU Right at the behest of Wayne Swan. The implication appeared to be that this was a counter to Kevin Rudd, whose “Old Guard” Right faction included Hoolihan. The deal was also said to require that the Left back AWU Right over Old Guard candidates in future state preselections.

The Liberal National Party has again endorsed its candidate from 2010, Michelle Landry, who owns a small book-keeping business in Yeppoon. Landry won preselection ahead of real estate agent Alan Cornick and anti-council amalgamation campaigner Paul Lancaster.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,019 comments on “Seat of the week: Capricornia”

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  1. [More than 30′ protestors tuned up, it was supposed to be at least fifty.]

    Meanwhile the PM attracts 2,000 and had to turn people away.

    Monckton and his hysteria just seems so last decade now.

  2. Boerwar
    They do use their radios though, don’t they. If they don’t use their ovens they probably eat at the club. That option is very, very popular with the pensioners here, it always has been. So is eating at Maccas. You would not believe how popular a Saturday morning Maccas breakfast is with the local pensionbers. It’s quite the social event.

    If these fools are teling the truth, which I very much doubt, then it’s sad to think they have been conned into going without decent meals and basic home comforts just because Alan Jones told them to do that. The very same squillionaire Jones who lives in a very pricey harbourside apartment with a butler and electricity to burn.

    I didn’t realise how much influence this old queen had until I visited my sister and found she had stopped using normal milk and had switched to some foul muck that tastes like water with added chalk. Why? Because Jones advertised it.

  3. [dave
    Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 10:28 am | PERMALINK
    mari@1683

    Think at least 3 or 4 PBers have also stopped subscribing to fairfax publications. Victoria,BH Lizzie ???

    I read the Fin Review daily for close to 30 years.

    Stopped last year and won’t be going back.]

    Dave when I was working (Finance) Financial Review was a must read, the company actually bought it for me, now like the SMH and Age it is getting down in the gutter, really speeded up when Mike S took over. Have not read it for ages in Hard Copy , read a link if someone on PB or Twitter mention it

  4. Looks like a war is brewing for QLD:

    Chris O’Brien ‏@ChrisOBrienABC

    Unions council of war against asset sales. @ABCNewsBrisbane @612brisbane @theqldpremier @TimNichollsMP pic.twitter.com/EblpgFTFDP
    Retweeted by Possum Comitatus

  5. [when abbott is PM howard wont be GG, Hyacinth will be, just to prove abbott doesnt have a problem being told what to do by women]

    … not to mention the fact that Hyacinth does deserve some sort of reward for putting up with the Coward for so many years … 😉

  6. Only 30 or 31 counting Moncton?

    I suppose all the other convoy of rage folk have dropped off their perches. It is not such a good demographic to which to hitch your wagon…

  7. [Peter Brent ‏@mumbletwits
    Have to scroll way, way down and use magnifying glass to find ‘opinion’ on SMH site.]

    Fairfax are still mixing opinion with real news at the top of their webpages.

  9. [Only 30 or 31 counting Moncton?

    I suppose all the other convoy of rage folk have dropped off their perches. It is not such a good demographic to which to hitch your wagon…]
    Are the protesters outnumbered by the press crew?

    Its not rent-a-crowd, its rent-a-gathering.

  10. [I didn’t realise how much influence this old queen had until I visited my sister and found she had stopped using normal milk and had switched to some foul muck that tastes like water with added chalk. Why? Because Jones advertised it.]

    That is truly bizarre!

    I wonder how many oldies are going to be without TV after the digital changeover because they’re too scared to get a set-top box in case it blows up and burns their house down?

  14. The online versions of newspapers are really just slightly fancier copies of their dead tree progenitors. Here I am sitting at a device that can compute lots of stuff, fast, that can be queried and provide an interactive experience and all they’ve done is duplicate the offline things they’ve always done.

    Well, to be fair to them, sites like Crikey are not much better in that respect, just without the dead tree origin. To be even fairer, a more general version of that criticism has been leveled at the entire www :P.

  15. confessions@1760


    I didn’t realise how much influence this old queen had until I visited my sister and found she had stopped using normal milk and had switched to some foul muck that tastes like water with added chalk. Why? Because Jones advertised it.


    That is truly bizarre!

    I wonder how many oldies are going to be without TV after the digital changeover because they’re too scared to get a set-top box in case it blows up and burns their house down?

    It really would be a good idea to revamp that program to provide a new digital TV. They are now costing less than I think the set top boxes are.

    Of course that program provided a lot more including installation of a new antenna and instruction on how to use the STB plus a help line.

  16. Bugler

    I’m not part of the social whirl of the Yarra Valley, so probably won’t know anyone you do. My OH is fairly well known, however, so I try to be careful in what I post.

  19. [John Bergin ‏@theburgerman
    The interspecies Internet beckons: dolphins may be the first of many species of animals to join us on the ‘net. | http://ow.ly/ihPvd ]

    Finns has been with us for a while now. 🙂

  20. The news.com.au article about this morning’s 30 protesters at Rooty Hill is funny as it includes a video showing PMJG speaking outside, while in the background are not protesters but football players in training.

    Murdoch doesn’t seem to have a photo of the protesters as 30 old age pensioners (plus Munckton but presumably minus Jones & Abbott) doesn’t make for compulsive viewing.

  22. Bugler@1717


    My concerns were more along the lines of why Fairfax felt the need to commission a poll purely because Western Sydney is (again) the topic de vogue, rather than discuss more or less anything else that actually affects people’s lives. You know, what politics is actually for.

    I’d put that down to laziness and cost-efficiency. It’s so easy now to just hire someone to do a robopoll and then report it, rather than doing conventional journalism.

  24. [I didn’t realise how much influence this old queen had until I visited my sister and found she had stopped using normal milk and had switched to some foul muck that tastes like water with added chalk. Why? Because Jones advertised it.]

    leone – wow! the difference in 2 sisters 🙂 Jones does wield enormous power over some oldies. Thank goodness he’s no longer heard in this area.

    I listened to Laws for a few minutes today. A bloke rang in to say he’d been to UWS last night and Laws asked him if he enjoyed the speech. Bloke started to speak and Laws jumped in with wtte ‘bet it was boring’ but the bloke said she got a rock star welcome.

    Laws seemed a bit setback at that but countered it by saying it was just party faithful. Bloke said Col Joye, Little Patty and Judy Stone were there. Laws, who usually says Col Joye is his best mate, ranted about them ‘that lot’ being Labor fans from way back.

    Laws ended the call but then read out Facebook comments which were all derogatory to the PM.

  25. So Abbott Reveals Tax Cuts, Pension increases (Increases already happening – But No Newstart Increase), Vows No Carbon Tax.

    No mention of Tax-based user pays Coalition BB Policy.

  26. BK:

    No, it was at the end of her press conference. She told the journo to get a better microphone. He protested so she told him to take the matter up with Lachlan and then went to the last question.

  29. Danny

    Don’t know abt hyacinth putting up with Howard, the idea I always got from afar was that she was pulling the strings a lot of he time. Wasn’t it on her say so that he hung in when tapped in 2007?

  30. Said it before:

    met Hockey once.

    He showed zero knowledge of the subject he was addressing – clearly hadn’t bothered to do any research at all.

    He made three promises, none of which were kept – and there was no reason for even one of them to be broken.

    Overheard SM discussing him with constituents at a public event last election – I’d say he has close to zero respect in the Liberal cabinet, as well.

    His ‘tell me which position I should take on climate change’ tweet tells you all you need to know about the man’s ability to make decisions, his understanding of important issues and his convictions.

  31. lizzie, I am not really sure what to make of that article. What Hockey says and what a Coalition government would actually do are two different things in my opinion. Maybe Gittins is taking Hockey at his word or it could be orders from above to be ‘balanced’.

  32. Re the PMs presser. It was a joke question from the dude off the Project. Is it Hughesy. Anyhow he asked if the Government is going to do something about all the noisey trucks that were going past.

    That is when the PM joked about knowing she was in trouble taking the last question from him…. laughs all round. It was then when the PM told him he should ask for improved mics.

    He mentioned something about funding cuts… and she said you better take that up with Lachlan.

    All in good fun.

  35. Mark Simpkin just said you had to show your Labor party membership card to get into last night’s event. Except we know that non-members were present.

    How is the ABC allowed to just tell lies like this?

  37. Even if you did have to show your membership card to get in – and BB, who was there, has said that that was not so – 2000 members bothering to rock up to Western Sydney would suggest that (a) the ALP membership numbers are healthier than we’re told and (b) the membership is very active and engaged!

  38. [On pbxmastragics BB said that a Canberra press Gallery person told him in front of witnesses, at last night’s JG speech event, and then repeated the statement when queried as to it’s accuracy.]

    That’s a pretty accurate description. We were standing around and got chatting.

    Then this person said, wtte, quite casually,

    “You know Abbott has lunch at News Corp every week, don’t you?”

    Blogger: “DOES he?”

    Another blogger: “Is that right?”

    Senior Press Gallery Person: “Yeah, every week.”

    Blogger: “Co-ordinating strategies I suppose?”

    Senior Press Gallery Person: “Of course!”

  39. ….and, of course, the rule of thumb for any event is that, for every person who did turn up, at least 6 would have if they could have.

  41. [Even if you did have to show your membership card to get in – and BB, who was there, has said that that was not so]

    I’m not a member. I produced a ticket, and offered IDm which was declined (as my sponsor had already produced his).

    We got a “Gold” paper bangle each. It was actually brown.

    “Labor ‘gold'” I quipped.

    Then, after that we had free run of the place.

    You could go and mix with anyone you liked, if you had the cheek.

    Cabinet ministers, ordinary folks, goons in suits… they were all there, milling and thronging in a most egalitarian way.

    It wasn’t in any way a “Labor Members Only” event.

    We literally brushed past Bob Carr and his wife (greetings and smiles exchanged), went up and chatted with Emmo and Tony Burke and some other ministers and members.

    It could only happen in Australia. We were all equals and all enjoying ourselves.

  42. BB
    And those lunches won’t stop.It’s war. It’s Rupert. And he doesn’t do half-measures.
    On Fairfax: There is much disquiet in the ranks on political coverage.

  43. BH
    My three sisters and I are very, very different. I love them all dearly, but family gatherings require a lot of tongue biting from me. They vote Liberal, I don’t. Two of them live in the Sutherland Shire and vote for Scott Morrison. One supports Fred Nile in the NSW upper house because she thinks it’s good to have ‘someone like that’ in parliament. Their husbands think asylum seekers should be blown out of the water. The third lives way down the coast and attends a happy-clapper church. You can guess how she votes, just from that piece of information.

    And then there’s me….. I’m the black sheep. It must have been that subversive teacher training what dun it. I used to be such a nice, well brought up young gel.

  44. [Mark Simpkin just said you had to show your Labor party membership card to get into last night’s event. Except we know that non-members were present.]

    We spoke to Simkin at length. He stood and defended himself, to his credit, but I’m not surprised he came out with this.

    I repeat: I’m not a member and I got in fine, no trouble at all.

    Labor party member DID get better seats, up front, and WERE allowed in first.

    The back of the hall was for non-members, they filled it up pretty quickly when they were allowed in. They had different colored paper bangles.

    I’d say about 60:40 members to non members.

  46. Electricity Prices will be an issue at the election.

    This is another example of how NBN is important (reduces the usage as most of the equipment is not active equipment).

  48. Bushfire Bill

    [I’m not a member. I produced a ticket, and offered IDm which was declined (as my sponsor had already produced his).]
    Lucky duck.Sounds like a great night. So some of the cheering I heard on the broadcast of the PM’s speech were PBers then 🙂

  49. [On Fairfax: There is much disquiet in the ranks on political coverage.]

    Political coverage has gone to hell at Fairfax. It’s shrill, repetitive and wrong most of the time.

    One of the very “senior” journos we contacted confirmed that the stories start at News, then to the ABC to launder them clean (the ABC is “Respected” as a news source, after all), and then back to news and Fairfax, then out to the mugs.

    He said this quite matter-of-factly.

    Where they ARE out to get you, it’s not paranoia.

  50. Am I allowed to do a Mod Lib and gloat that, even if Labor loses the next election, they hold most seats in Western Sydney and gain seats in Queensland I’m allowed to gloat because I’ve thought that since at least 2011? The ALP’s problems is the handful of marginals in Victoria and those in NSW generally, not safe seats in Western Sydney. If I were a gambler, I’d put plenty of money on the ALP not losing Chifley or Blaxland, due to people’s current hysteria. A much safer bet than the:

    [1. Steal underpants
    2. ???
    3. Profit]

    mentality of leadership speculation (for either side).

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