Seat of the week: Capricornia

It took the landslide defeats of the Whitlam and Keating governments to loosen Labor’s grip on the central Queensland seat of Capricornia. The risk of a repeat has increased with the recently announced retirement of sitting member Kirsten Livermore.

The central Queensland electorate of Capricornia has existed since federation, with Rockhampton as its constant as boundaries shifted over the years. It currently has Rockhampton at its southern coastal end, from which it extends northwards to the southern outskirts of Mackay and westwards through farming and coal mining communities as far as Belyando 250 kilometres inland. Rockhampton has kept the seat strong for Labor for most of its history, the party’s only defeats after 1961 coming with the demise of the Whitlam and Keating governments in 1975 and 1996 (the margin on the former occasion being 136 votes).

The proverbial baseball bat having been wielded in 1996, the seat was recovered for Labor in 1998 by Kirsten Livermore, member of the “soft Left” tendency associated with Martin and Laurie Ferguson. Livermore picked up an 8.8% swing on her debut and retained the seat with reasonably comfortable margins thereafter, until an 8.7% swing in 2007 boosted it to very safe territory. Then came a 0.7% redistribution adjustment followed by an 8.4% swing amid the Queensland backlash of 2010, which reined it back to 3.7%. In December 2012 she announced she would not seek another term, as she wished to spend more time with her family.

A preselection to choose Livermore’s successor was held in February and won by Peter Freeleagus, a Moranbah miner, former Belyando Shire mayor and current Isaac Regional councillor. This was despite the local party ballot being won 65-37 by Paul Hoolihan, who along with most of his Labor colleagues lost his seat of Keppel at the 2012 state election. However, Hoolihan was overwhelmed by a 41-9 to win for Freeleagus in the 50% component of the vote determined by the state party’s electoral college, which consists mostly of union delegates. Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that Freeleagus was backed by the Left faction CFMEU, but also harnessed support from the AWU Right at the behest of Wayne Swan. The implication appeared to be that this was a counter to Kevin Rudd, whose “Old Guard” Right faction included Hoolihan. The deal was also said to require that the Left back AWU Right over Old Guard candidates in future state preselections.

The Liberal National Party has again endorsed its candidate from 2010, Michelle Landry, who owns a small book-keeping business in Yeppoon. Landry won preselection ahead of real estate agent Alan Cornick and anti-council amalgamation campaigner Paul Lancaster.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,019 comments on “Seat of the week: Capricornia”

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  1. Jackol,

    [I initially had strong reservations about Reachtel’s methodology – I think it’s fundamentally broken as it has the problems of landline calls in a mobile-shifting population, but additionally I don’t think people react well to automated phone calls of any description, and that has to have significant effects on who they get legitimate responses from, but also on how seriously people would take their responses, and their mindset while doing so.]

    My mum hung up on her automated rostering system, and wondered why they hadn’t rung her, until once I answered the phone and listened to what they wanted. (We nearly always use the landline because it is the only phone that doesn’t cut out). You may be right.

    Even if these polls are accurate, I am quite annoyed that Fairfax has decided to spend money on these rather than policy analysis. I realise this is a polling site, however, there are more things to politics than polling. These polls have added absolutely no value to the political debate or any insight into the current Government. Kevin Bonham posted on the first Lilley poll that robopolls are cheap, and we don’t know how many times things have been polled and whether or not this is the first result, or the worst. If it had been decent for Labor, Fairfax simply wouldn’t have used them for days and days of bit space on their websites.

  2. dwh

    ‘Standards of proof and presumption of innocence are very flexible terms here much of the time Boerwar.’

    PB gets above the lying standards of Morrison and Abbott all the time. And you are going to vote them. You should be happy that there is one corner of Australia that they have yet to debase to their standards.

    So stop being a double standards Liberal-voting hypocrite.

  3. “@OliviaIllyria: Abbott meets up with News Ltd. WEEKLY to discuss political strategies. Spread the word. This has to get out.”

    Slowly word is getting out. Keep up the good work!

  5. Boerwar@1628


    In the best standards of PB civilian journalism, we need some independent confirmation that Abbott meets with News Ltd folk once a week.

    Heaven forbid that our press gallery or the ABC might put the question directly to him.

    After all that would require them to be reporters.

  6. victoria:

    I like it. Nowhere for Abbott to hide, no fitted up debate audiences, no pre-debate strategy concocted with News ltd.

    Bring it on!

  10. ‘If I were the PM, I would directly challenge Abbott to an impromptu debate. No ifs and buts’

    Agree most emphatically.

  11. Morning all. I have grumbled many times in teh past about executive pay, the weak PC inquitry into it, and the need for legislative action on it. Now Swiss voters have approved a set of laws on it much tougher than those passed by Labor:
    [The vote gives shareholders of companies listed in Switzerland a binding say on the overall pay packages for executives and directors. Pension funds holding shares in a company would be obligated to take part in votes on compensation packages.

    In addition, companies will no longer be allowed to give bonuses to executives joining or leaving the business, or to executives when their company is taken over. Violations could result in fines equal to up to six years of salary and a prison sentence of up to three years.]
    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/04/business/global/swiss-voters-tighten-countrys-limits-on-executive-pay.html?hp&_r=0

    Labor should look at this closely now. Arguments for action like the Swiss are as follows:
    1. It will be politically popular, and Labor is facing defeat.
    2. Executive salaries are the greatest business ripoff of modern times. Claims they lead to better corporate performance are bald-faced lies.
    3. It will do no economic harm, and some good. Exec bonuses were probably one of the main motivating causes behind the GFC.
    4. There is NO evidence it will cause companies to move. Where could they go otuside Australia at present that they would be better off. Swiss voters have seen through this.
    5. Adopting the Swiss laws would be a move towards more consistent corporate regulation which helps with business efficiency.
    6. Business leaders are behind Abbott anyway.

    There is one argument against this.
    1. Political apparatchiks hoping for high paid corporate jobs after the election loss may want to curry favour with the business community in hopes of getting some of the loot for themselves.

    But if Labor figures strategy is to still try to win the next election, implementing the Swiss laws will help. The Swiss laws got 68% support at the referendum.

  13. ‘If I were the PM, I would directly challenge Abbott to an impromptu debate. No ifs and buts’

    It’s the sort of go for the throat political intuition or lack of that Mega George was talking about on Indiers yesterday.

    It really would be great if she did.

  14. For an insight into the murky going ons in the LP in Victoria check out the HS tapes. Revalatory – with Tristan Weston (former staffer in Peter Ryan’s office) claiming to Baillieu’s chief of staff that Ryan lied to the Parliament and OPI at the time of the Ken Jones/Bill Tilley police saga. Where this will end is anyone’s guess.

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/ted-baillieus-top-aide-tony-nutt-pledged-support-to-former-adviser-tristan-weston/story-e6frf7kx-1226589569246

  15. Rosemour

    Yes would be fantastic. However would Labor get Liberals to agree to that scrutiny?
    I am not so sure. Before you suggest it not just Labor lacking killer instinct, but Liberals running Abbott from real scrutiny.

  17. SirLeslieHammondQC,

    [So apparently Fairfax’s focus group testing showed that SMH/Age readers weren’t fussed about the format as long as the content doesn’t change. I find it hard to believe there was a chorus of “more articles about Rudd please!”]

    Yes, we’ve stopped buying the hard copy. If there is a rare informative article about such-and-such, I can simply get it online.

  18. “@SenatorWong: Just spoke in Brisbane about Newman’s draconian approach to the NFP sector. He makes savage cuts, then silences those who would speak out.”

  19. [Bugler
    Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 9:43 am | PERMALINK
    SirLeslieHammondQC,

    So apparently Fairfax’s focus group testing showed that SMH/Age readers weren’t fussed about the format as long as the content doesn’t change. I find it hard to believe there was a chorus of “more articles about Rudd please!”

    Yes, we’ve stopped buying the hard copy. If there is a rare informative article about such-and-such, I can simply get it online.]

    I ran a tweet on how my family and I plus some friends had stopped subscribing to SMH was amazed at the response I had , about people stopping subscriptions to Fairfax publications, think I counted up over at least 25 stopped.

  20. John Lee has a longish article in today’s ‘The Australian’ headed China’s Peaceful Rise Less Likely’. He works in Centre for International Studies at the University of Sydney.

    His main points is that a peaceful rise of China is becoming less likely. He bases his general argument on what rising powers have done historically. He somewhate debunks the general view that trade relationships stop wars.

    He then goes to rguments specific to China.

    China, he argues, sees itself as the ‘natural paramount power’ in Asia. China’s increase in military spending has outpaced the rate of GDP growth for the past decade. China’s opaque and somewhat dysfunctional authoritarian sytem of governance is a problem. The balance between the PLA ‘…more assertive, reckless and uncompromising…’ and the civilian leaders is a cause for increasing concern. He cites several instances where the civil has not quietened bellicose rhetoric by the military. He notes the stoking of ‘…virulent nationalism…’ by the CCP to strengthen its rule. Lee also notes the possibility of an accidental war arising from Senkaku/Daioyu incidents.

    Lee does not say that a general East Asian war is inevitable.

    He does argue cogently that there are some structural reasons within China why we should be concerned. He argues that the intensity of those concerns are increasing rather than decreasing, or remaining stable.

    bluepill has doubts about whether a general land war will happen, and rightly so, IMHO. But the issue is not one of doubt on the one hand and certainty on the other. It is one of the balance of probabilities. And that balance is shifting.

    What is certain is that we should not risk leaving a war choice to a prime minister Abbott in the general context of an increasingly likely general East Asian war.

  21. Boerwar, BB had 3 witnesses and questioned the “senior gallery journo” closely for confirmation. This needs to asked tonight to Bishop on QandA so it can be denied. Or not.
    Abbott needs to be asked so he can deny it. Or not.
    It needs to be asked of every gallery journo so it can be denied. Or not.
    They all need to be hammered over it until one breaks ranks and admits it on the record.
    I hope also that BB writes it up as a separate piece so it can get more close attention as opposed to being part of the PM’s appearance.
    This is potentially a game changer if we can get the LNP on the back foot. It is explosive because it goes a long way to proving that Mordors tactics are used ACROSS THE WORLD to control debate and install his puppets into government in the UK, USA & Australia. “The Coalition of the Willing”
    It proves that Abbott is his puppet and that all the attacks on Labor ARE propaganda. It gives Labor a platform to attack everything that Newscorpse writes as being co ordinated from the top as we all know but haven’t been able to prove.
    IT IS A GAME CHANGER.
    It proves that Mordor’s outlets are propaganda organs. Not newspapers.

  22. Blackburnpseph,

    [However, I have had work colleagues who have the outer suburban project home as their first home. Not my bag living on the edge of the city – but a quick scan on google suggests you can get a house and land package in outer melbourne for inside 350k. You couldn’t buy a small flat for that within about 15k of the city.]

    It is actually cheaper to buy 10 acres out here and build your own house than it is to buy an established house on a 1/4 acre in the suburbs closer in than Ringwood. Some of the prices are truly ridiculous. That said, they do come with access to everything: internet, transport, schools, leisure and dining, etc.

  23. silentmajority

    Thank you. Three witnesses witness confirming the story is excellent.

    OTOH, Abbott has lied repeatedly about big things in front of millions of witnesses and the Liberals are still going to vote for him.

    There you have the pissweak Liberal moral standards on public display.

  24. Mari,

    [I ran a tweet on how my family and I plus some friends had stopped subscribing to SMH was amazed at the response I had , about people stopping subscriptions to Fairfax publications, think I counted up over at least 25 stopped.]

    The Age is becoming the Herald Sun, with the only difference being its quality state reporting and the shit-eating grin you can feel through the paper of the federal reporters. Its been a long time since I’ve seen them (the federal reporters) discuss something substantial that wasn’t the latest whim of the press gallery groupthink.

  27. Davidwh and Boerwar

    On pbxmastragics BB said that a Canberra press Gallery person told him in front of witnesses, at last night’s JG speech event, and then repeated the statement when queried as to it’s accuracy.

    (As Silent majority has pointed out at 1671).

  30. Evidence that Abbott is a blabbermouth. Can’t keep a secret. No wonder he has to be controlled.
    [ ‏@geeksrulz
    Abbott is meeting News Ltd every week. He also did so at the end of 2011 after Slipper became Speaker.

    @BarossaObserver
    @geeksrulz Which was just before he hinted darkly that something was coming “next year” for #Slipper. Coincidence? #Ashby #auspol]

  31. Pensions and other benefits are soon to go up – it’s time for the regular March adjustment.

    Just so everyone can get their facts straight on pensions, here are the facts and figures. You will need them to prove just how much money Abbott will rip out of the wallets of those on the Age Pension and all those who receive other payments at the same rate – Disability Support Pension, Carer Payment, Service Pension and Wife Pension.

    The Clean Energy Supplement will begin on 20 March, an amount of $13.50 a fortnight for singles and $20.40 for couples. It will be indexed. This is what Tony Abbott will take away. At least $351 a year for singles, $530 for couples. Think of it as losing the equivalent of a quarterly electricity bill to understand the impact. And remember, pensioners have been over-compensated for the effects of the Carbon Price, so a cut will really hurt.

    The regular six monthly CPI adjustment to pensions will also kick in on the same day. It will be $21.30 per fortnight for singles and $33.60 for couples. I’ve never seen such a big increase from this adjustment. Labor changed the way these adjustments are calculated. Doubtless Abbott intends to change back to the less generous method his idol Howard used. That would be pension cuts by stealth.

    http://jennymacklin.fahcsia.gov.au/node/2259

    http://www.cleanenergyfuture.gov.au/household-assistance-pensioners/

    Those on Newstart, Youth Allowance, Austudy, Abstudy and more will also receive a Clean Energy Supplement.

  33. [Bugler
    Posted Monday, March 4, 2013 at 9:53 am | PERMALINK
    Mari,

    I ran a tweet on how my family and I plus some friends had stopped subscribing to SMH was amazed at the response I had , about people stopping subscriptions to Fairfax publications, think I counted up over at least 25 stopped.

    The Age is becoming the Herald Sun, with the only difference being its quality state reporting and the shit-eating grin you can feel through the paper of the federal reporters. Its been a long time since I’ve seen them (the federal reporters) discuss something substantial that wasn’t the latest whim of the press gallery groupthink.]

    Like you I have gone from a read everyday subscriber of the SMH, to looking at it online if I see something I might like to read,by looking at BK’s morning round up or articles on Twitter. This is getting rarer and rarer now. Think at least 3 or 4 PBers have also stopped subscribing to fairfax publications. Victoria,BH Lizzie ???

  35. This article is a must read for Malcolm Turnbull. It demonstrates the mish-mash that is Internet infrastructure in the US where individual companies are responsible. Some consumers are lucky, most are not.

    [Where do you get your Internet from? I get mine from Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA), and I’m sure a lot of you do too. Comcast obviously isn’t the only Internet fish swimming out there in the sea though. Some people out there (the lucky ones) live in an area where AT&T’s U-Verse or Verizon’s (NYSE: VZ) FiOS can reach their homes. Then there are the uber lucky who get their Internet from Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) new fiber service.

    The problem arises when you see that Comcast really isn’t investing in expanding Internet infrastructure. We’re, for the most part, stuck on the same speeds and, in some instances, paying more now than we did for Internet three years ago. Comcast has implemented caps and throttling off Internet services in order to make an extra couple of dollars per account. That money isn’t going to any kind of build out.

    Verizon FiOS could have been the Internet competitor that people were looking for. The service has unfortunately also stopped its build out. I have spoken to people who use the service, and they are actually quite pleased with it. Their smallest Internet bundle comes with 15/5 speeds; that’s 15 Mbits down and five up, one of Comcast’s premium package speeds.

    Google is the company that is bringing the real competition and the real fear to both the cable companies and others that provide Internet services to their customers. Kansas City is the only place that you can currently experience Google Fiber, and there has so far been no announcement as to when the service will expand to other locales.]

    http://beta.fool.com/ash1402/2013/03/03/cable-has-keep-fiber-or-face-consequences/25828/?ticker=GOOG&source=eogyholnk0000001

  37. “@FrancisVentura: @davrosz did you hear that Rupert Murdoch is special guest at IPA’s 70th anniversary dinner?”

  38. I hope PMJG remembers to mention BOF not going ahead with Parramatta link means more cars on roads and longer travel times for commuters

  40. Some woman in a vox pop on Ch7 just said that western Sydney is bigger than ACT, Tasmania, Victoria and NT combined.

    No correction from the interviewer.

  41. [Boerwar, BB had 3 witnesses and questioned the “senior gallery journo” closely for confirmation. This needs to asked tonight to Bishop on QandA so it can be denied. Or not.]

    silentmajority Abbott has a ready excuse. Sheridan is his best mate (from Uni days) so Abbott will say he has lunch with him every week.

    Nothing is too awkward for Abbott to wriggle away from because he is allowed to. Journos have no say – editors and management do.

    Sinodinos has shown again that he is cunning and will get away with playing Chairman dolling out money to the Liberal Treasurer (himself).

    The Bailleau/Nutt stuff is scandalous but Nutt and Sinodinos both worked for Howard. They know how to get down and dirty behind the scenes.

    Betcha nothing happens to any of them but it will be interesting to see what Abbott and LimitedNews blow up this week for newspoll

  42. Victoria 1686 Agree. What I felt from the start was a political conspiracy to unseat the very decent Police Commissioner, Simon Overland,(now Secretary of Justice in Tasmania I believe) and today’s revelations show a further conspiracy to try and ‘look after’ the staffer (Tristan Weston) who took the blame.. ‘Why is it coming out now?’ I have no idea – but I suspect we will find out soon. I get the feeling Baillieu’s days are numbered … as are the Deputy Premier’s, Peter Ryan, who was accused by Weston of lying to the OPI.

  43. confessions

    Interviewer was probably listening to producer in ear and not subject talking so missed it.

    It does highlight a problem with the way media works nowadays.

  44. For bludgers who have not listened to the link by Rossmore at 1682, do yourselves a favour. Neil Mitchell is a right wing partisan talking head, but he reckons Ballieu has a lot to answer for. This coupled with Tony Nutt (remember his part in the Slipper saga), Sinodinos etc. this is huge

  45. What i mean re Sinodinos, is the latest relevations of his non disclosure of liberal donations, directorship of seven companies and dealings with the Obeid family.

    The stench around the whole Liberal Party is growing by the frickin day

  47. mari@1683


    Think at least 3 or 4 PBers have also stopped subscribing to fairfax publications. Victoria,BH Lizzie ???

    I read the Fin Review daily for close to 30 years.

    Stopped last year and won’t be going back.

  49. Bugler@1651

    Kevin Bonham posted on the first Lilley poll that robopolls are cheap, and we don’t know how many times things have been polled and whether or not this is the first result, or the worst. If it had been decent for Labor, Fairfax simply wouldn’t have used them for days and days of bit space on their websites.

    My concern there is mainly with robopolls commissioned by vested interest groups, parties and the like, ie “internal polling”. I’m not fussed about media (though a little wary when it’s Andrew Bolt) because I’m not aware of any cases of a newspaper commissioning a political poll then not releasing it because they didn’t like the results. After all, for the media that’s just money down the drain. (If anyone is aware of such a case – that is proven – I’d be interested to hear about it.)

    In the case of the present polls, if they had shown Labor with very narrow leads they would have still been very newsworthy, if they’d shown a change to Rudd would have made no difference to stated voter intention that would have been newsworthy, and if they’d shown Labor holding firm in those seats that would have been newsworthy too – pretty much whatever the finding they would have been able to make some sort of story out of it.

    I am not convinced there is anything intrinsically wrong about robopolling that renders its results useless. However I am finding ReachTEL’s preference distributions unreliable. Those I looked at yesterday seemed a bit friendly to the Coalition, usually by a point or so.

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