The Prime Minister has performed us all the service of advising well in advance that she will call the federal election for September 14, to be formally initiated by a visit to the Governor-General and the issue of the writs on August 12 (remember where you heard it first). Professional strainers for things to say have criticised the move, but not on any reasonable basis that I can see (the rather esoteric concern of the date coinciding with Yom Kippur aside). It’s a bit trite to complain of a decision about election timing being driven by political considerations, which will self-evidently be the case wherever politicians are given discretion over the matter. The salient point is that the public and the political system at large have gone from not knowing something important to knowing it, which can only be a good thing. Antony Green (see video embed at 2:47pm) has more, including the observation that the practice of ambushing the opposition with an announcement five weeks out from the date is a modern development, and a very obviously unhelpful one at that.
Some recent political odds and ends:
• Labor’s national executive has confirmed the endorsement of Nova Peris, who became the first Australian Aboriginal to win an Olympic gold medal as a representative of the women’s hockey team in 1996, as its Northern Territory Senate candidate. Peris’s endorsement occurred at the initiative of the Prime Minister, who was seen to be reacting against the party’s record of failure in securing Aboriginal representation in the federal parliament, and the backlash against Labor in remote areas at last August’s Northern Territory election and the presumed threat to the corresponding federal seat of Lingiari. Local preselection processes were contentiously overridden in seeing off the incumbent of 16 years, Trish Crossin, who had been a supporter of Kevin Rudd’s bid to return to the leadership. Vocal critics of the move included two former Labor Deputy Chief Ministers, Marion Scrymgour and Syd Stirling, along with Senator and Left faction powerbroker Doug Cameron. Scrymgour nominated for the national executive vote along with another former Territory minister in Karl Hampton, who was among those to lose his seat at last year’s election. It was was reported that “at least two” of the 24-member national executive voted against the Prime Minister’s wishes.
• Robert McClelland has announced he will bow out at the federal election after 17 years as member for the Sydney seat of Barton, which Labor holds on a margin of 7.7%. Another backer of Kevin Rudd, McClelland served as Attorney-General from the government’s election in 2007 until his demotion to emergency management in 2011, and was dropped altogether last March in the wake of Rudd’s failed leadership bid. He was seen to have undermined Julia Gillard last June by making an oblique reference in parliament to the AWU affair, which was invoked as validating the subsequent blizzard of news reports into various details of the matter. McClelland’s most widely discussed potential successor as Labor candidate is Morris Iemma, who succeeded Bob Carr as NSW Premier in August 2005, led his party to victory at the 2007 election, and was deposed in September 2008 in a move which doesn’t seem as clever now as it apparently did at the time. Reports have quoted sources saying Iemma is “likely” to put his name forward. Others mentioned have been Shane O’Brien, mayor of Rockdale and official with the Public Service Association of NSW, and Kirsten Andrews, a former staffer who now works with the National Heart Foundation.
• Paul Henderson, who led Labor to defeat in last year’s Northern Territory election, has announced he is bowing out of parliament. This will cause a by-election to be held on February 16 for his northern Darwin seat of Wanguri, where his margin was clipped from 14.4% to 7.0% last August. Labor has preselected Nicole Manison, a former Henderson government media adviser who had backing from both Henderson and his successor as Labor leader, Delia Lawrie. The Country Liberal Party has again endorsed its candidate from last year, Rhianna Harker, a former president of the Young CLP.
UPDATE: Morgan has published a result from its face-to-face polling of the past two weekends, which has Labor down half a point to 36%, the Coalition down 2.5% to 39% and the Greens up 1.5% to 12%. This pans out to a 50.5-49.5 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, and 50.5-49.5 to Labor when preferences are allocated as per the result of the last election.
[The Member for Indi has the science portfolio in the opposition if I’m not mistaken.
Evans is streets ahead of her in terms of ability!]
A discarded test tube has more value to science than the Puff Adder!
CTar1 @ 3284,
[Shellbell has already set me some remedial reading to do.]
So I noticed, but I couldn’t resist the temptation.
Evans looks gutted. NOT.
Actually gets APPLAUSE from the Press Gallery.
The ABC enforce 50:50 simply because it’s easy for them. It’s measurable and dumb so they can shut up whinging rightards.
[Imagine either Labor or the Libs taking Ch 10 to court to force better coverage.]
It’s a licence condition. ACMA would decide any complaint, but licence restrictions etc on the table for proven breaches.
Those who were not going to restand leave the cabinet 7 months prior to the election and their replacements have a chance to take the job. How is this a bad thing?
ship sinking lol more like ‘meh’.
Roxon: “My decision was made so much easier because the Labor government bats so deep”.
He is a class act.
Now Nicola is giving Abbott a serve.
lefty e
Some thinking people here have already basically called into question the so-called AFR marginal seats poll.
I gather some of the samples were so small as to make the poll not worth much at all.
Also, some fingers were pointed at the authors of the poll.
The fight is still ahead for Labor but why is everything Labor does – even minute stuff – viewed under such a microscope?
The departure of Evans and Roxon would have been known by the PM. These two have just not decided out the of the blue to chuck it in in a fit of funk.
However, the OM can’t resist the call of a “rattled” government and a “rocked” government and boringly so since 2010.
When hasn’t this government been “rattled”?
I remember, months ago, some opinion piece in the AFR – before I stopped reading it – going on and on about how “glum” all the Labor side looked in parliament.
Now, true to say, I don’t look at parliament ever day it is sitting but my observation was “glum” was not a word I would have used for Labor.
The OM – because their managements do want a change of government – clearly have to keep pushing the ‘instability’ line as it then confirms why the electorate should vote in Abbott. They know the electorate has real reservations about him, so for months they are pushing the “It may be bad under Abbott but at least it will be (stable) bad”.
I still think the electorate – when obliged to make a real choice – not one confected by the OM – will chose between what they know as opposed to what might be the case.
An election of Devil you know rather than Devil to take a chance on.
I think the PM’s setting of the election date has been great and most of the electorate are not unhappy about this.
It is interesting but in the West the first week of the campaign has likely to have gone to Labor. Barnett looks on the back foot and all the talk about trains – especially to the airport – has tickled the fancy of many. It will still be a Liberal win I would have thought as the country will stick with their hay seeds.
However, an election campaign, like a grand final, is different. All previous bets are off.
Another fantastic speech.
Zoomster – agreed, just because Adam couldn’t do it doesn’t mean plenty can. I agree 100% it was a stunt but I still feel it was worthwhile in that it got attention for the issue in the mainstream media. It also sets him up to ask a question or two on the issue next week and put pressure on the government over it.
The other good thing with it was that he heard from lots of people living that life and experienced, too a degree, some parts of it. Overall – well done I say. Taxi was dumb though. Being on the $50 increase or better yet 50% of the minimum wage increase!!!
Cabinet changes seem reasonable – headlines could be around having 2 less females now but I think they’ve picked the right people. I’d suggest that makes giving Penny Wong the Senate Lead all that more important though.
[Those who were not going to restand leave the cabinet 7 months prior to the election and their replacements have a chance to take the job. How is this a bad thing?]
Nor is it unusual. Election year reshuffles are fairly common.
The Rudd squad need something to squawk about I guess.
SK
Class. Describes progressives. Its why the Cons hang onto Menzies so much.
They have no Whitlam. No Doc Evatt. No Bob Brown. No ……. the list goes on.
Good morning bludgers.
I can’t be bothered going back over all the last 12 hours comments so please excuse if I repeat anything.
As usual, great piece by Mike Carlton, injecting some sanity into the discussion, although it will not be welcomed by the PB delusionists. A couple of samples:
[But for the next 32 weeks, every twitch and grunt in the political arena will be ”analysed” for its effect on the opinion polls, marginal seats, party morale etc, and – most of all – the electability of two leaders who are about equally scorned and distrusted.]
Well… what a surprise.
[Labor’s backroom chieftains have obediently rubber-stamped their Captain’s Pick of Nova Peris to top the ticket for a Northern Territory Senate seat.
Many people who should know better, including a large chunk of the Canberra press gallery, have hailed this as a great leap forward for indigenous Australians. How wonderful, they enthused: at last, an Aboriginal woman in Federal Parliament.
It is not wonderful. It is a travesty, yet another tragic episode in the horrible saga of white paternalism that began in 1788 when Arthur Phillip kidnapped poor Bennelong and togged him out in tailcoat and knee breeches to hang about Government House.
At least Phillip’s motives were high minded. A product of the Enlightenment, he genuinely believed he was bringing a primitive heathen into Christian civilisation under the benign protection of George III.
Julia Gillard can claim no such moral purpose. There were three indigenous people hoping to contest preselection for the Senate slot, all of them ALP members. Gillard trampled them into the dirt because she thought a star athlete would be an election winner. It’s as simple and cynical as that. Whitey called the shots again.
Just as Bennelong was carefully coached in the use of the snowy napkins and the Georgian silver at Phillip’s table, so Peris will be told where to sit, what to say and how to vote. The party machine will ring-fence her with minders to protect her from the media and the punters. As the Northern Territory’s Indigenous Advancement Minister, Alison Anderson, scathingly but accurately remarked, she will be a ”maid to do the sheets and serve the cups of tea”.]
Oh dear!
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/get-set-for-a-long-and-grinding-road-20130201-2dpke.html#ixzz2JhGTEp6g
[I’d suggest that makes giving Penny Wong the Senate Lead all that more important though.]
Hasn’t she said she’s not running?
And Nicola bows out with class.
PM is teary. Her and Roxon are close I believe.
Good on look showing emotion. Real Julia the public loves seeing that.
Reminds them pollies are not robots
Lots of genuineness on display.
Bowen to replace Evans.
Plus he gets small business.
Dreyfus AG.
But hang on, he’s not an SC!
Dreyfuss to AG.
Sorry to see Nicola Roxon jumping ship but can’t say I blame her. I really liked Nicloa and she was full of talent.
Chris Evans I don’t know so well as he seems to keep a very low profile. But when I have seen him, he has performed well too.
The bright side of course is that there is so much talent to promote and it may help to refresh the team in the election lead up.
Now, if we could just have one more team change … 😐
Clare gets promoted to Cabinet.
Queens Counsel Brandis SC coloured green right now I bet 😆
Brendon O’Connor to Immigration.
Json Clare rises another rung, as does Mark Butler.
Mike Kelly gets promoted. About time.
Mike Kelly – yay!
Justine Elliot to go to the backbench upon request.
BK – It’s a definate handicap being a Q.C.
Melissa Parke – yay!
Justine Elliot will not be missed.
Caucus to decide Senate Leadership on Monday.
Will Julia turn and walk away from difficult questions?
I think not!
Justine Elliot. CLass act. Acting on integrity.
[now is exactly the time to announce if you’re departing….and any downside to doing so will have well and truly washed through by the election proper.]
Thats true.
Watching the presser now, its does seem quite genuine. I still think Roxon’s a big loss though. (Did she just thank Kev?)
As for Rudd entering cabinet, I can see it might make some awkward (but frankly, thats only becuase they went way too far during the challenge). Not anywhere near as important as winning. Get over it. Rudd’s popular. Popularity is not a dirty word. It would make JG look ‘big about it’ as well.
On balance, I think it would help.
I got caught in a phone call, so I lost the shifts but did we lose a minister position wiht the shuffling and doubling up?
JG looked for a fleeting minute as if she wanted to clobber Phil Coorey for his disrespectful question.
@mashable: Facebook Campaign Rescues ‘Gay Bulldog’ From Execution http://t.co/oT5gU95l
The usual idiotic questions from OM… “Prime Minister, why aren’t you conforming to our narrative?”
Another dumb questioner being knoked down.
Press gallery
‘We’ve already decided this is a sign of panic. Please give us some lines to support what we have already decided’.
“@abcnews: PM Gillard: This is the real world. People make decisions about their own lives, their families and their futures. #auspol #reshuffle”
Every question so far is loaded with speculation.
Space Kidette @SpaceKidette
Seems if it isn’t done the good old fashion way, our Outdated Media just can’t keep up with politics. #auspol #outdatedmedia #mediafail
Jeezus now we’re getting questions about caretaker conventions! WTF do these turkeys think happens in states where there are fixed election dates?
LOL JGPM slaps media over “balanced” coverage.
Haha.
‘Balanced coverage? I’d give that a big tick. When I see it’
ZING