Bruce covers suburbs in eastern Melbourne from Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill south to Springvale (home to substantial Vietnamese and Chinese communities) and Dandenong. The Monash Freeway bisects the electorate from north-west to south-east, serving as a rough divider between a strongly Labor-voting south and a broadly marginal north with pockets of strong Liberal support around Wheelers Hill. The redistribution has added around 7500 voters from those parts of Glen Waverley who were previously in Chisholm, which has garnished Labor’s margin from 8.1% to 7.7%.
Bruce was created in 1955 but has been substantially altered over time by redistribution, its original boundaries extending far beyond the city limits to Cranbourne in the east and Berwick in the south. Suburban expansion soon caused it to be drawn into its long-term base of Glen Waverley, and it assumed roughly its current dimensions when it acquired Labor-voting Noble Park and Dandenong North in 1996. This proved a watershed moment electorally, as the Liberals had previously held the seat without interruption and Labor has done so since.
The inaugural member for the seat was Billy Snedden, who went on to lead the Coalition in opposition from the wake of the 1972 election defeat until he was deposed by Malcolm Fraser in March 1975, and then to serve as Speaker throughout the period of the Fraser government. Snedden retired following the 1983 election defeat and was succeeded at the ensuing by-election by Kenneth Aldred, who had held the since-abolished eastern suburbs seat of Henty for the Liberals from 1975 until his defeat in 1980. In 1990 Aldred was defeated for Liberal preselection by Julian Beale, whose seat of Deakin had been made notionally Labor by a redistribution. Aldred then ran for Deakin himself, and managed to retain the seat on the back of a statewide backlash against Labor.
The 1996 redistribution gave Bruce a notional Labor margin of 1.6%, which Beale had to overcome if he was to retain his seat. In the event he could manage only 0.8%, a rare disappointment for the Liberals in the context of that election. The winning Labor candidate was Alan Griffin, who had previously held the abolished seat of Corinella. Bruce has since swung substantially according to the prevailing political winds, but has nonetheless remained fairly secure for Labor, the narrowest margin after 1996 being 3.5% in 2004.
A noted figure of influence in the Socialist Left faction, Griffin served as Veterans Affairs Minister in the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government before standing aside after the 2010 election. Griffin cited personal reasons for this decision, but he would soon emerge as a numbers man for Kevin Rudd’s leadership aspirations. Griffin announced he would not seek re-election in August 2011, before changing his mind in July 2012. He had earlier been fortunate to survive a preselection challenge for the 2007 election by Matt Carrick of the Right, who was reportedly thwarted by a single Transport Workers Union delegate who split from his faction’s line out of animus towards Carrick’s backers in the National Union of Workers.
The Liberals have endorsed Emanuele Cicchiello, Knox councillor and deputy principal of Lighthouse Christian College.
@theage: Tornadoes hit Queensland coastal towns. http://t.co/PmQmzE4E
halloween jack@120
Just emailed friends in Bargara , no reply so far ?
deblonay @ 147
i agree with your comment about an story replacing peris
Thats why labor and their supporters , need to continue to bring up ashby scandal
and put the pressure back on the media
The ashby scandal is a more important story and , what has the media got to hide
confessions@137
Also my view. If she consulted with Crossin well in advance Crossin would have mobilised and tried to stop it, and may well have been successful in making enough noise to prevent it happening or even to create leadership tensions.
My usual experience of these sorts of media events is that if they have no impact on most voters’ everyday lives, then they don’t impact polling either, at least not enough to notice amid all the noise.
It’s more likely than not the Newspoll out this weekend will show a swing back to the Coalition just because the trend is pretty flat and the last poll was under it. If it’s even 53 LNP then no doubt the usual turkeys will go berserk about how the Peris intervention has hopelessly damaged Labor. But anything in the range 50-54 may well be just random bouncing from a (Newspoll) trend of 52.
Kevin Bonham
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 5:54 pm | Permalink
It’s more likely than not the Newspoll out this weekend will show a swing back to the Coalition just because the trend is pretty flat and the last poll was under it. If it’s even 53 LNP then no doubt the usual turkeys will go berserk about how the Peris intervention has hopelessly damaged Labor. But anything in the range 50-54 may well be just random bouncing from a (Newspoll) trend of 52.
—————————————————-
Kevin you are likely to be spot on with that prediction
ShowsOn@123
OK, I give up Showy, what’s the answer?
Hola Bludgers
The stuff above Ms Peris is making me break my New Years Resolution. How tragically weak of me. Didn’t last a bloody month…
None of the Peris stuff should surprise.
(1) Old-style Labor was in on the White Australia policy. It should not really surprise that Labor has failed to generate a single Indigenous representative in over a hundred years of Federation. Pissweak, guys. Very, very pissweak. There is a lot of talent. You ignored it. You lost the NT government because of this ignorance and you stand to lose some ground in the next federal election in the Top End. Youse bloody well deserve to do so. I have been posting for some years that the Labor notion that the Indigenous vote was locked in was plain stupidity.
(2) The incumbent senator is a union cum faction hack-stooge, has contributed nothing policy-wise while taking lots of the taxpayer’s moolah. Perfect? Or a perfect waste of space? She lacks even the judgement to see that Rudd is a sociopath. Left to their own devices the closed labor shop in the NT would have kept Crossin crossin’ the tropic to no good purpose. No wonder they are frothing at the lolly being snatched from under their noses. They do small-minded extremely well in the Top End, so the Peris smears were duly launched by the hacks and hackettes of the Deep North. Nice stuff, guys.
(3) Tilmouth is streets ahead of Peris in terms of political street-fighting savvy and in terms of Indigenous policy nous. Streets ahead. He may not have survived various forms of very close scrutiny aka smear campaigns, but with Tracker, you get the real thing. He would run rings around some of the idiot right and make laughing stocks of them. Of course he has not won an Olympic gold medal and he is not a woman, and is not as clean-cut. Stiff chips Tracker old mate; you have done the hard yards, the very, very hard yards. Sex change might do it and a few quick laps of the pool. But hey mate… you get the picture.
(4) Indigenous people are quite good at the back-biting snark stuff. Enter Giles CLP hack and various other folk who, quite rightly, know gender and race parachute tokenism when they see it.
(5) Gillard thinks she is onto a winner. Nova Peris is a decent sort of person. She is Indigenous, has done a lot of public reltions work for various causes and has won Olympic Gold. She looks clean. Husband. Two kids. Plus that Crossin person supports Rudd. Perfect. Don’t bother consulting. I wonder when either Gillard or Nova Peris tried to have a crap on a blocked toilet or last dodged a drunk, a knife fight or dog shit in an Indigenous fringe camp in the Top End?
(6) Of course the reactionary racists know racism when they see it. Luminaries such as the convicted Bolt trot out their pseudo rage at the vile racism of the prime minister and such lying organs as The Australian dutifully fall into line. These bastards think that a federal representation that includes singles of a jew, a muslim an indigenous person and an armenian descendant is AOK. Bullshit it is. What it is is the anglo ascendancy’s last stand.
The whole thing stinks from woe to go.
Media Bias!!!
“@MediaMook: WTF?! @channelten News edited Roger Federer vs Andy Murray #ausopen verbal spat to falsely claim Murray started it and “appeared smug”.”
Enough of the Rudd stuff boooring-good on him for his part in the 2007 win but this guy is purely sales dept material.
As for the Peris(congrats Nova) appointment PM Julia Gillard has shown confidence and good political and tactical judgement in this instance.The dogs will bark but the caravan keeps moving on.Bring on the election which will send the conservatives into political oblivion for many years.
Hmmm, the difference between Rudd writing a reference for Alexander Downer and Gillard presenting him with a gong…
Rudd acted voluntarily, of his own free will; Gillard followed (as all previous PMs have done, which is why Howard gave the same to people like Tim Flannery) the recommendations of an expert panel.
I’ve given out awards on Australia Day, on behalf of the local council. It wasn’t a personal endorsement of any of the recipients, some of whom were Liberal party members; it was one of my duties as a councillor.
lol guytaur @ 158
So BW, re the Peris parachute, are you for or agin it?
Oakeshott Country – I believe Mundine has supported Nova
http://nocrapapp.com/2013/01/26/no-crap-app-wb-21-jan-2013/
[January 26, 2013
No Crap App: w/b 21 Jan 2013]
Drag0nista’s selection of the week’s best articles. Worth a browse.
lol Leroy
Thanks for the link
Interestin retwwet by Leroy
[Mark Colvin @Colvinius
RT @timothy_mcd: Coal ash is more radioactive than nuclear waste. scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id…]
This is actually nothing new, it has been know for many years but seems to be largely ignored.
Coal provides the 100% certainty of dispersal of radioactive ash.
Nuclear offers radio active containment unless a major accident occurs in which case the outcome could be really ugly.
Take your pick!
PTMD
If Gillard had consulted me before the decision I would have said nup.
It’s done. Time to move on.
bemused
Pick is easy. Solar every time
Hmmm, the difference between Rudd writing a reference for Alexander Downer and Gillard presenting him with a gong…
No difference at all. The twat deserves neither.
Noting to worry about here: Australian internet speeds fall to 40th place globally
At least we still beat New Zealand – 46th place.
Thank goodness we have a government with the vision to implement the NBN which should take us right to the top barring similar improvements from others.
Boerwar:
Nice to see you back again, and I hope you enjoyed your holiday.
Welcome back, Boerwar.
A sensible post summing up the Peris affair nicely. Nova basically just needs to keep her nerve until the jackals move on. That should be in about the next 48 hours.
confessions
Thank you. I had an excellent holiday.
GD
Thank you.
[Boerwar
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 6:35 pm | PERMALINK
confessions
Thank you. I had an excellent holiday.]
Not “bum boating: were you ?
mari
No. Mohammad came to the mountain. It was great. Hope to get waterborne later in the year.
“@Colvinius: By making Miriam Margolyes Australian, we’ve naturalised almost every character in Dickens. If we can tempt Simon Callow we’ll have the lot.”
WB BW
Hairy nose yes he has. My point was that i think he has areputation for being unreliable and this prevents him getting pre-selection. How the ex deputy chief minister ever expects to get pre-selection again is beyond me.
[Boerwar
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 6:40 pm | PERMALINK
mari
No. Mohammad came to the mountain. It was great. Hope to get waterborne later in the year.]
As Mohammad should 😉 I won’t be bum boating this year as going through Dubai this time no “bum” boats there I wouldn’t think?
Welcome back, Boerwar
@genericleftist: I love that Miriam Margolyes is planning on joining the ALP now that she is a citizen. http://t.co/oZ0Y9vEz #auspol
Looking at this we can’t blame the PM for Dolly Downer’s gong. The bottom link lists the members .
[Nominations to the Order of Australia come directly from the community: either individuals or groups. Anyone can nominate a fellow Australian for an award.
Appointments in the Order of Australia are not made posthumously. However, a nomination will be considered if the person is alive when the nomination form is received by the Australian Honours and Awards Secretariat at Government House in Canberra.
The 19-member Council for the Order of Australia then considers the nominations. The Council makes its recommendations, independent of government, direct to the Governor-General.
Awards in the Order of Australia are publicly announced on Australia Day (26 January) and The Queen’s Birthday public holiday (June).]
http://www.itsanhonour.gov.au/honours/awards/medals/companion_order_australia.cfm
[Council for the Order of Australia]
http://www.directory.gov.au/directory?ea0_lf99_120.&organizationalUnit&e8ff9830-ea9a-40fe-b00a-cb17b2263dc8
Australian economy leads the world
Date
April 18, 2012
Read later
Jessica Wright
Cash bonus … International Monetary Fund officials in Washington announced today that Australia will have the top-performing economy in the developed world for the next two years.Photo: Bloomberg
Australia has the strongest economy in the developed world and it is expected to outperform all comers for at least the next two years, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, said this update is consistent with the reasons he has given for bringing the budget back to surplus, and criticised Tony Abbott for “talking down the economy”.
The IMF also forecasts Australia’s unemployment rate to remain low at 5.2 per cent in both 2012 and 2013.
The IMF – which issued its World Economic Outlook in Washington overnight – said it expected the Australian economy to expand by 3 per cent this year as fiscal tensions from Europe and the United States continue to ease.
The body stated that after a major setback last year with the Eurozone crisis, the global prospect of far more stable financial conditions was gradually improving.
Advertisement
The update said that it expects the Australian economy will outstrip growth over all other advanced economies over the next two years, noting we live in a region where exposure to troubled European banks was less than for other parts of the world.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/australian-economy-leads-the-world-20120418-1x6ac.html
PM just been on TripleJ Hottest 100 Show. My tip for No 1, Tame Impala, Feels Like Going Backwards – a classic piece of psycadelic rock.
Shows, you get to Laneways and hear some more great music …
Mari
You might get a Dhow run in Dubai but not bum boats. OTOH, if the Australian public does not wake up we are going to get a bum steer for PM. You know the pseudo-shandying grogmonster I am talking about.
s
Thank you. It is nice to be back.
[Lisa Herbert @LisaHerbertABC
Baffled by the decision not to allow media to cover the Golden Guitars ceremony. Does country music want mainstream coverage or not? #tcmf]
Shorter OM reaction: Don’t they know who we are?!
OK I HAD A NAP, SO I’M BETTER NOW!
[Well, manufactured outrage against the dreaded JuLiarHITLER aside, one of those is actually a duty, whereas the other is just an award.]
ERR WHAT? Rudd wrote a reference letter to help Downer get a United Nations JOB.
Now are you SERIOUSLY trying to convince me that Australia Day honours are “just an award” and don’t actually mean much!?
Incredible!
[Also, I think you’ll find most of the partisan Labor hacks don’t agree with Downer getting anything positive.]
So show me someone posting that the Government shouldn’t have recommended this award.
[Boerwar
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 6:59 pm | PERMALINK
Mari
You might get a Dhow run in Dubai but not bum boats. OTOH, if the Australian public does not wake up we are going to get a bum steer for PM. You know the pseudo-shandying grogmonster I am talking about.} I certainly do re grogmonster, I still have faith in the Public to throw him out, of course no faith in MSM to be at all balanced. You are right re the Dhow run, have you been there? Am quite excited as going on A380 for first time
[Oakeshott Country – I believe Mundine has supported Nova]
Lowitja O’Donohue didn’t have a clue as to why.
She suspected Mundine was trying to stay onside with the party executive who he may need in order to get a winnable seat one day.
ShowsOn
[She suspected Mundine was trying to stay onside with the party executive who he may need in order to get a winnable seat one day.]
I think she has suspected right!
Showson
The Government has no way of intervening in the granting of an Order of Australia award (see previous posts). Nor should they.
I loathe Downer as much as anybody.
But can you imagine the hyper-partisan outrage if the government had rejected the recommendation by the Australia Day awards committee to give him a gong?
Bad precedent to set, especially if the next PM is the openly vindictive Abbott.
“@QPSmedia: REPORTS OF ANOTHER TORNADO AT BURNETT HEADS. RESIDENTS REMAIN INSIDE. #bigwet #tornado”
If the current attacks on Nova Peris are an example of how the indigenous community plays its internal politics, I think, sadly, that many Australians otherwise well disposed towards indigneous people will end up less likely to support programs designed to conter indigenous disadvantage.
So who is on this board and who put them there? Giving dolly a gong for doing bugger all after being a senior member of the see-no-evil hear-no-evil govt with the AWB and Children Overboard stink wafting from its record, are they serious?
I want to know why he is one if the top four. As if they could not find one woman in this country equal if not greater deserving of that gong!
Good to see you back Boerwar. It’s been a slow start to 2013 but things will just get more interesting as the year progresses.
[i]… on.Bring on the election which will send the conservatives into political oblivion for many years.[/i]
Rabbitoh – I wish I could share your optimism, but I’d rate Labor’s chances this year at maybe 10%, although 6 months ago I would have said zero. At least a Queensland style disaster is probably no longer on the cards. But Julia has her work cut out, with most of the fonts of power in this country against her. If she discovered a cure for cancer, the headline in the Murdoch tabloids would be “Gillard puts thousands of Doctors and Nurses out of Work”.
A question for the Gong Panel: was any consideration given to Downer’s involvement in the AWB scandal?
Talk about trashing the brand…