Bruce covers suburbs in eastern Melbourne from Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill south to Springvale (home to substantial Vietnamese and Chinese communities) and Dandenong. The Monash Freeway bisects the electorate from north-west to south-east, serving as a rough divider between a strongly Labor-voting south and a broadly marginal north with pockets of strong Liberal support around Wheelers Hill. The redistribution has added around 7500 voters from those parts of Glen Waverley who were previously in Chisholm, which has garnished Labor’s margin from 8.1% to 7.7%.
Bruce was created in 1955 but has been substantially altered over time by redistribution, its original boundaries extending far beyond the city limits to Cranbourne in the east and Berwick in the south. Suburban expansion soon caused it to be drawn into its long-term base of Glen Waverley, and it assumed roughly its current dimensions when it acquired Labor-voting Noble Park and Dandenong North in 1996. This proved a watershed moment electorally, as the Liberals had previously held the seat without interruption and Labor has done so since.
The inaugural member for the seat was Billy Snedden, who went on to lead the Coalition in opposition from the wake of the 1972 election defeat until he was deposed by Malcolm Fraser in March 1975, and then to serve as Speaker throughout the period of the Fraser government. Snedden retired following the 1983 election defeat and was succeeded at the ensuing by-election by Kenneth Aldred, who had held the since-abolished eastern suburbs seat of Henty for the Liberals from 1975 until his defeat in 1980. In 1990 Aldred was defeated for Liberal preselection by Julian Beale, whose seat of Deakin had been made notionally Labor by a redistribution. Aldred then ran for Deakin himself, and managed to retain the seat on the back of a statewide backlash against Labor.
The 1996 redistribution gave Bruce a notional Labor margin of 1.6%, which Beale had to overcome if he was to retain his seat. In the event he could manage only 0.8%, a rare disappointment for the Liberals in the context of that election. The winning Labor candidate was Alan Griffin, who had previously held the abolished seat of Corinella. Bruce has since swung substantially according to the prevailing political winds, but has nonetheless remained fairly secure for Labor, the narrowest margin after 1996 being 3.5% in 2004.
A noted figure of influence in the Socialist Left faction, Griffin served as Veterans Affairs Minister in the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government before standing aside after the 2010 election. Griffin cited personal reasons for this decision, but he would soon emerge as a numbers man for Kevin Rudd’s leadership aspirations. Griffin announced he would not seek re-election in August 2011, before changing his mind in July 2012. He had earlier been fortunate to survive a preselection challenge for the 2007 election by Matt Carrick of the Right, who was reportedly thwarted by a single Transport Workers Union delegate who split from his faction’s line out of animus towards Carrick’s backers in the National Union of Workers.
The Liberals have endorsed Emanuele Cicchiello, Knox councillor and deputy principal of Lighthouse Christian College.
Bet this doesn’t make the front page of the Australian.
http://www.tntmagazine.com/news/australia-news/tony-abbott-im-too-much-of-a-grog-monster—opposition-in-leader-in-bizarre-radio-admission
A seat named Bruce? Does remind me of that Monty Python sketch.
G’day Bruce!
Whatever the politics.
My congratulations. Alexander Downer.
Congratulations to Paul Dyer of the Australian Brandenburg Orchestra on his AO. Truly inspirational musician who has created something magnificent.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
I suppose these would be held up by Abbott as exemplars of productivity improvement.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/restaurants-dirty-secret-revealed-20130125-2dc69.html
Mike Carlton is back with a cynical month by month prediction for 2013.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/future-schlock-as-more-of-same-in-store-20130125-2dbps.html
Peter FitzSimons on the Australian flag.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/our-flag-should-not-be-girt-by-british-history-20130125-2dc64.html
Cathy Wilcox continues with the parachuting theme.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
Pat Campbell on a typical Australia Day.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
Ron Tandberg on the mini campaign.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
And from the Land of the Free –
Yeah. The system of responsible gun ownership works a treat in the US!
http://americablog.com/2013/01/how-one-bat-sht-crazy-guy-was-allowed-to-buy-an-arsenal.html
The Repugs have no shame!
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/01/25/finally-wapo-front-pages-election-rigging-scheme-plus-glimmers-of-hope-in-virginia-florida/
Cartoons on women in combat.
http://thepoliticalcarnival.net/2013/01/25/cartoons-of-the-day-women-in-combat/
Jon Stewart rips Paul Ryan.
http://videocafe.crooksandliars.com/heather/jon-stewart-takes-apart-ayn-rand-fan-boy-p
[Dorrie Evans
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 3:46 am | PERMALINK
I don’t mind a rock hard argument but what I will not abide is a hand full of sand thrown in my face by a weak opponent who stands behind a lifelong love affair with his or her own ignorance.]
The Fellowship would like to announce that Dorrie Evans has been awarded the Gandalf for this post.
The Gandalf
This award goes to the current best post on PB
The Gollum
This award goes to the current most stupid post on PB
[September: After the most numbingly tedious election campaign since Federation, it is deja vu all over again. Labor and the Coalition each win 72 seats in the House of Representatives, with six independents holding the balance of power. A weary nation unites as one to ask crossbencher Rob Oakeshott to stay silent this time. Tony Abbott quits the Liberal leadership in a moving farewell speech to his wife and three daughters. Kevin Rudd’s tear-stained TV denunciation of Prime Minister Gillard to a toupee-wearing David Koch leads to his house arrest. Reincarnated opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull sends a crate of Krug to Fairfax cartoonist Alan Moir with an appeal to stop drawing him in a top hat.]
The only thing amiss with Mike Carlton’s election prediction, is that the election will be in October.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/future-schlock-as-more-of-same-in-store-20130125-2dbps.html#ixzz2J1NrZjPI
Explring the influence of the “Kochtopus” — the tax-rebated but donor-hiding trusts that dund opposition to climate science:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/how-the-kochtopus-stifled-green-debate-8466316.html
And
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/exclusive-billionaires-secretly-fund-attacks-on-climate-science-8466312.html
It amazes me that Crikey with all of its resources, can’t operate a blog without constant technical difficulties.
Then they want us to pay money for it!!
Tell ’em they’re dreaming!
Finns @ 12 (and Victoria):
If you watch “Wake in Fright” (c 1970) you can see how much this country has changed. “Aussie” way of life … pfft
So, have all the posts of wisdom from 7:43 to 11.09 been lost to posterity?
Now I know how the mice felt (42)
What the Hell happended to Finn’s post, and Victoria’s?
I can see why Abbott called himself a monster
definition of a monster is to
spread smear and fear against its opponents
[So, have all the posts of wisdom from 7:43 to 11.09 been lost to posterity?]
The Blog that ate the posts
Muttley:
[It amazes me that Crikey with all of its resources, can’t operate a blog without constant technical difficulties.]
I know. This is the second time in two days that I’ve lost a post due to “internal server error”. It’s really annoying.
Anyway, I recomposed it:
And now, another post from the land that sense escaped from in fear for its safety demanding asylum:
Gun Nut who purchased assault weapon points it at teenage daughter on learning she got two Bs
Nope, it’s not an Onion piece. In that spirit though …
It’s a little known fact that before the Illuminati and aliens from the planet Zog began tampering with the constitution and rewrote the 2nd amendment to what is wrongly believed to be its present form it read as follows:
Whereas the freedom of a free people can only be sustained by protecting the sense of achievement that the cognitively challenged men can take in wielding weapons of war against their apparently useless offspring, the right of gun nuts with self-esteem and anger management problems to threaten their kids with assault weapons to make themselves feel better shall not be infringed. You know it makes sense, and if it doesn’t, that’s because your (sic) some gun grabbing urban elite tax and spend liberal commie urban vegan.
You can see why the Illuminati and Zoggians knocked that text out! 😉
[It amazes me that Crikey with all of its resources]
what resources?
Mod Lib@7
I award the above post The Gollum. ;P
And I award the following article in the Australian another Gollum for blatant misrepresentation: passing off Nate Silver’s assessment that in his view the Coalition is more likely to win than Labor as “Coalition will win”. Not Coalition likely to win, but “will”. No partisan bias required to explain this swill, papers do it all the time. They don’t handle probability assessment claims well. I’ve been misreported as calling that someone would win an election because I said I thought they were slightly more likely than not. Anyway here it is (enter URL into Google and search if you hit the paywall.)
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalition-will-win-says-us-stats-guru/story-fn59niix-1226562182982
sprocket_@8
Carlton is at his humourous best with comments like these:
[Boxer Anthony Mundine will head Labor’s NSW Senate ticket at this year’s election. ”Choc’s very unique talents will enrich the Parliament,” says the delighted Prime Minister, Julia Gillard.]
[Kylie Minogue is named to top Labor’s Senate ticket in Victoria, with Julia Gillard exulting at ”another great leap forward for Australian women”.]
Of course Abbott cops a bit too like this:
[Tony Abbott drives a forklift backwards into a drain at a Queanbeyan sewage farm.]
I may have been a bit of a grog monster last night so apologies for anything I may have said that was dumber than usual. Had a scotch or two which is unusual for me these days but it seemed like a good idea at the time.
[davidwh
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 11:39 am | PERMALINK
I may have been a bit of a grog monster last night so apologies for anything I may have said that was dumber than usual. Had a scotch or two which is unusual for me these days but it seemed like a good idea at the time.]
Think you are forgiven, or maybe not :devil:
What happened to about 30 comments that I saw before? Or don’t I ask?
Mari it may have been the Crikey Girbles I was drinking with last night.
davidwh,
ARe you turning into a grogmonster?
No-one fed the gerbils last night and then they went out drinking with davidwh on empty stomachs. This morning they all had killer hangovers and mistook all those posts for bacon and egg rolls. They now have hangovers plus indigestion. I hope this clears up the mystery of the missing posts for youse all.
[davidwh
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 11:46 am | PERMALINK
Mari it may have been the Crikey Girbles I was drinking with last night.]
Could have been OR maybe could not have been :devil:
[eone
Posted Saturday, January 26, 2013 at 12:18 pm | PERMALINK
No-one fed the gerbils last night and then they went out drinking with davidwh on empty stomachs. This morning they all had killer hangovers and mistook all those posts for bacon and egg rolls. They now have hangovers plus indigestion. I hope this clears up the mystery of the missing posts for youse all.]
Many thanks for the explanation I though I was living in a parallel world??? where things come and go as they please 😉
Mod Lib
[The Gollum
This award goes to the current most stupid post on PB]
Could I suggest that the Fellowship institute the Grand Gollum award for the stupidest post in a calendar year. The following effort from you would be a strong contender for 2012.
[Mod Lib
Posted Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 2:00 pm | Permalink
I am afraid all this shows is that you do not understand statistics.
52-48 to the ALP is exactly the same as 49-51 to the LNP if the poll has a margin of error of 3%.
Exactly the same.]
Wow a whole morning’s worth of comments have disappeared!
WTF?
Sorry everyone if I had known who they were I would never had opened that second bottle of JW. 🙁
Puff 23 not likely again for a long time. My head hurts.
davidwh
Never mind, the gerbils had a great time – or I think that’s what they said. They keep clutching their tiny heads and passing out. This is the best ID image I could manage given their current condition. Keep it for future reference.
[So, have all the posts of wisdom from 7:43 to 11.09 been lost to posterity?]
You mean I spent frustrating time blaming my laptop & me; hours digging out my Dummy’s Guide, then trying to fix it; even resurrecting Safari (slower than a wet long weekend, which we’re having) trying pollbludger on it; then fretting about the cost of fixing the Mac V going on a starvation & privation budget to buy a new one …
And all the time I & my aging lappy weren’t the problem?
If I were a believer, I could always offer the above suffering to the Almighty in return for the rain’s taking itself South of the Murrumbidgee River for the next couple of weeks; but I’m not.
Bugger!
The advantages of an expensive private school
http://www.theherald.com.au/story/1257302/unfair-call-on-exam-aid/
Good piece by Rudd. This is where Gillard is lite-on: bit of national vision. I say this with no lingering resentment, infact, Gillard is better at policy in my view. But thats not enough for full-spectrum national leadership.
Take a few hints from the last ALP leader to win a majority:
http://afr.com/p/national/kevin_rudd_r3M4ZC99XyTjvJ9WVpll2K
The Guardian celebrates Australia with … Guess what …
The Australia Day ad too rude for Aussie TV – video.
[This television advert for Dick Smith food products was meant to be screened on Australia’s national day, but was banned from its allotted time slot after being deemed too offensive. The ad champions Australian food and uses ‘dick’ jokes, including an elderly lady saying ‘there’s only one dick I’ll be eating on Australia day’]
Oh dear. The Poms will never let us forget it!
lefty
read the article. Obviously you got something out of it I didn’t – it seemed like a series of motherhood statements to me.
Given that, could you please tell us what you took out from it?
This is good news for a government going in to an election year,
[However, the biggest driver for shares on both sides of the Atlantic this year has been rising optimism that the global economy will strengthen further this year.
Much of that comes from signs that Europe’s debt crisis, which dominated financial markets for the last two years, has at least eased in the last six months]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/9828390/Global-markets-rise-on-hopes-of-recovery.html
34 lefty e
I’d agree that this is more the sort of inspirational speech that needs to come from leaders. I can see zoomster’s point, too, that it is mostly articulating the obvious.
Sometimes it needs to be put that clearly. I’m glad to see that lefty’s realised that Gillard is stronger on policy and a builder, however.
How we combine the two, I’m not quite sure. But if we have to choose, I’ll take the builder.
An example of Ballieu’s priorities:
[THE State Government has committed $1 million to flush out the best option for securing Wangaratta and district’s water into the future.
Water Minister Peter Walsh announced the ‘Water Security for Wangaratta Project’ while at the city’s water treatment plant on Wednesday, saying he hoped to have recommendations within 18 months.
He said the government had decided to double the $500,000 committed in 2010 to look at the city’s water security options, in order to expand the scope of the study.
It was originally focused on assessing the feasibility of enlarging Lake William Hovell or Buffalo, but will now look at ‘all options’ for Wangaratta and district, downstream of both lakes.
“The Water Security for Wangaratta Project will assess alternative water supply options and identify the most cost-effective solution to improve water security in the Wangaratta region,” Mr Walsh said.]
http://www.nenews.com.au/stories.aspx?pub=ch&day=Fri&class=Stories&type=SINGLE&path=XML/&rec=04
Background: the Labor government looked into the reliability of Wangaratta’s water supplies about ten years ago, and seriously considered expanding the storages in question.
They ruled that out as an option, because of the Murray Darling cap, and instead took other measures to secure the water supply.
In the meantime, an aquifer has been discovered which will meet all the conceivable water needs of the area long into the future.
As a result of this, Wangaratta Council dropped its support for the expansions.
So this spending is purely political in nature, to appeal to the locals.
I’m confident enough to predict the outcome now; it will be that the option of expanding the dams will be dependent on either the easing of the M-D cap, or on finding enough water savings elsewhere (good luck with both of those) and, in the meantime, let’s go with developing the aquifer.
For that advice, I’m willing to settle for a modest fee – say a couple of grand – and the savings can go to the local hospital.
GD
I’d go a bit further, and say that there’s at least a couple of proposals there that Rudd has never actually supported when it comes to the crunch….he talks a lot about tolerance and uses the example of advances in gay rights, but he voted against gay marriage, for example.
The whole Kerryn Phelps thing revisited!
I’ll just add to 39 that Wangaratta has ample water. The only reason they nearly ran out that summer was that the reservoirs were almost emptied in anticipation of rains that didn’t eventuate.
It provided the government with the awful warning that it’s unwise for any town or city to rely on one water source, which was part of their thinking when it came to the NE pipeline and desal plant.
But since then, Wangaratta HAS been provided with alternate water sources.
MOFOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
EVEN BETTER THAN ANNE HATHAWAY IN THE DARK KNIGHT RISES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Due to the reason set out in the below blog post Poliquant will cease as a website.
http://poliquant.com/over-and-out/
I just wanted to thank to everyone here who supported the blog by visting, I am humbled by your support.
A big thanks to William who generously let me post links on here.
Thank you to all.
One of my posts was among those gobbled up earlier so I will try to remember what I said…
It is interesting to see William analysing my electorate and seeing what he makes of it.
I was particularly interested in the account of Matt Carrick’s challenge to Alan Griffin in the 2007 pre-selection.
Carrick lobbed into the electorate some time ahead of pre-selection, joined the branch I am in and quickly moved onto the branch executive.
It wasn’t just a disgruntled TWU delegate who saw the challenge fail, some normally right aligned members from the electorate also supported Alan Griffin.
Predictably, after the failed pre-selection, Carrick disappeared in a puff of smoke, never to be seen in the electorate again.
I am sure bludgers will recall that this occurred at the same time as the effort to topple Simon Crean for pre-selection in Hotham and of course it was all part of the same plan. Crean also saw off that challenge and Martin Pakula’s political genius was saved for the Victorian State Parliament, whereas Carrick appears to have disappeared into obscurity.
SO
Any other acts you liked?
zoomster@36
Can I answer that one please teacher?
My take out was that Rudd can write and say things in a way that will resonate with the Australian electorate.
I can name at least 2 other leading Australian politicians who mostly lack this ability and rarely rise above the banal.
Zoomster – saying something about the country larger than a technocrats vision of narrow policy problems. Rudd’s piece is actually quite clever: he a sacred cow or two without pissing people off like Keating would (I liked that about Keating, mind you).
Instead of saying we should challenge demons, he’s sayng we are. Its a better tactic.
And this sells Gillard’s policy far better than Gillard yet has:
[So long as Mr Abbott argues he will repeal the carbon price if elected, he is still out there with the international league of dinosaurs. The nation, I believe, has moved on. We have ratified Kyoto 1 and now Kyoto 2. We have legislated the mandatory renewable energy target of 20 per cent by 2020. We now have a carbon price that will transition to an emissions trading scheme. And Australia now seems relatively relaxed and comfortable about the need to act on climate change after a decade of denial.]
The guys wins elections. The ALP can learn from it.
So has Newman saved our assess yet on this large rainfall yet?
Exactly, Bemused.
Listen and learn (or lose), ALP.
lefty e@49
lefty e, you don’t get it.
Rudd hatred trumps all else.
Far better to lose the election and maintain the Rudd hatred than to learn from him and save us from Abbott PM.