Bruce covers suburbs in eastern Melbourne from Glen Waverley and Wheelers Hill south to Springvale (home to substantial Vietnamese and Chinese communities) and Dandenong. The Monash Freeway bisects the electorate from north-west to south-east, serving as a rough divider between a strongly Labor-voting south and a broadly marginal north with pockets of strong Liberal support around Wheelers Hill. The redistribution has added around 7500 voters from those parts of Glen Waverley who were previously in Chisholm, which has garnished Labor’s margin from 8.1% to 7.7%.
Bruce was created in 1955 but has been substantially altered over time by redistribution, its original boundaries extending far beyond the city limits to Cranbourne in the east and Berwick in the south. Suburban expansion soon caused it to be drawn into its long-term base of Glen Waverley, and it assumed roughly its current dimensions when it acquired Labor-voting Noble Park and Dandenong North in 1996. This proved a watershed moment electorally, as the Liberals had previously held the seat without interruption and Labor has done so since.
The inaugural member for the seat was Billy Snedden, who went on to lead the Coalition in opposition from the wake of the 1972 election defeat until he was deposed by Malcolm Fraser in March 1975, and then to serve as Speaker throughout the period of the Fraser government. Snedden retired following the 1983 election defeat and was succeeded at the ensuing by-election by Kenneth Aldred, who had held the since-abolished eastern suburbs seat of Henty for the Liberals from 1975 until his defeat in 1980. In 1990 Aldred was defeated for Liberal preselection by Julian Beale, whose seat of Deakin had been made notionally Labor by a redistribution. Aldred then ran for Deakin himself, and managed to retain the seat on the back of a statewide backlash against Labor.
The 1996 redistribution gave Bruce a notional Labor margin of 1.6%, which Beale had to overcome if he was to retain his seat. In the event he could manage only 0.8%, a rare disappointment for the Liberals in the context of that election. The winning Labor candidate was Alan Griffin, who had previously held the abolished seat of Corinella. Bruce has since swung substantially according to the prevailing political winds, but has nonetheless remained fairly secure for Labor, the narrowest margin after 1996 being 3.5% in 2004.
A noted figure of influence in the Socialist Left faction, Griffin served as Veterans Affairs Minister in the first term of the Rudd-Gillard government before standing aside after the 2010 election. Griffin cited personal reasons for this decision, but he would soon emerge as a numbers man for Kevin Rudd’s leadership aspirations. Griffin announced he would not seek re-election in August 2011, before changing his mind in July 2012. He had earlier been fortunate to survive a preselection challenge for the 2007 election by Matt Carrick of the Right, who was reportedly thwarted by a single Transport Workers Union delegate who split from his faction’s line out of animus towards Carrick’s backers in the National Union of Workers.
The Liberals have endorsed Emanuele Cicchiello, Knox councillor and deputy principal of Lighthouse Christian College.
Er, that was “the guy [i.e. Rudd] wins elections”. Wasnt suggesting ‘the guys’ of the ALP do. Far from it!
Bemused, I look at TOny Burke and Crean and I fear your satire there is misplaced. Thats how they actually feel.
I’m not interested in a Rudd war.
I asked a very very simple question. If you guys can’t answer it, hey, that’s not my problem.
Your contention is that Labor can learn from Rudd’s article – yet you don’t seem to be outline what he’s offering advice-wise.
I read the article, because I’m always interested in policy ideas and how to communicate them. I didn’t see anything new or compelling or different there.
If you can, please explain it to me. Otherwise, I have to conclude that it’s a case of something sounding good without having any real substance.
You’re welcome to prove me wrong, and it will give you a chance to spruik Rudd in the process, so go for it.
RHCP 4 EVA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Poli @43 hope you new career goes well. Thanks for all your work in 2012.
Zoomster@53
” Otherwise, I have to conclude that it’s a case of something sounding good without having any real substance ”
after thousands upon thousands of written words and too many trees sacrificed you just had to go and sum up Kevin Rudd in his essence, didn’t you.
OMG!
I”M AT BARNACLES BILLS AND THERE IS AN ELDERY ABORIGINAL LADY EATING AT A TABLE NEAR ME. I THINK IT IS LOWITJA O’DONOHUE!!!!!
NOT 100% CERTAIN THOUGH, BUT IF IT IS HER WHAT A GREAT DAY TO SEE AN AUSTRALIAN OF THE YEAR AND ABORIGINAL ELDER, AND FORMER HEAD OF ATSIC!
HAS ANYONE ELSE SEEN THE RED HOT CHILI PEPPERS AND LOWITJA O’DONOGHUE WITHIN A SINGLE 24 HOUR PERIOD?
…and also have their name in Hansard?
Ian
[” Otherwise, I have to conclude that it’s a case of something sounding good without having any real substance ”
after thousands upon thousands of written words and too many trees sacrificed you just had to go and sum up Kevin Rudd in his essence, didn’t you.[
Perfect.
bemused is back and Ruddstoration is on again, I’m out of here.
Get over it.
zoomster@53
We answered it.
You didn’t like the answer.
Who has the problem now?
There was nothing really new in the article but what can be learnt is the style of communicating so that it connects with people and they connect with it.
muttleymcgee@60
I responded to a simple question from zoomster.
Sorry you can’t handle it.
[Otherwise, I have to conclude that it’s a case of something sounding good without having any real substance.]
Psephos used the term ‘credulous idiots’ to refer to those sucked in by Rudd’s empty rhetoric.
Seems apt to me.
Otherwise known as voters?
lefty e@64
GOLD 😆
So I gather a bunch of comments have gone missing. That’s no good.
[Otherwise known as voters?]
People who claim to follow politics closely yet remain in steadfast delusion about the man’s sociopathic motivations.
Your credulity is misplaced, I can assure you.
This blog since Bemused has returned has been a constant war over KRudd, the week before was an interesting discussion about policy, Ashby, polls and other things of interest.
Hijacked by one man’s quest for the resurrection of his martyr.
lefty e@64
Of course the other popular PB rationalisation is that only the votes in Caucus count.
Now that’s a really great election winning formula. 👿
bemused
Sigh. Right, so words, not substance.
Which wasn’t what I thought lefty e was saying to begin with; I thought he was talking about a national vision being outlined, and that this was something new.
But apparently, no.
Sorry if I want more than words from my politicians. But hey, that’s a personal failing of mine, not a criticism of Rudd.
Seasprite@68
What utter rubbish.
Seasprite@68
FWIW and probably not much with your obvious cognitive impairment, my first post here today had nothing to do with Rudd and I only mentioned him in response to zoomster.
No go after zoomster or STFU.
This photo has been doing the rounds on Facebook and twitter.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/australia-day-celebrations-across-nation-as-17000-people-become-citizens/story-e6frg6nf-1226562400005
As well as the one of the PM with Margoyles.
WB
So I gather a bunch of comments have gone missing. That’s no good.
There’ll be a few in there that won’t be missed.
Seasprite, Bemused has been behaving perfectly okay since his return, and personal commentary of that sort is extremely unhelpful even when it’s accurate.
zoomster@70
A very cheap shot from you and you know it.
Words that have the ability to communicate matters of substance and engage the electorate.
Nice piece about Tom Uren.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/tom-uren-a-man-of-letters-pow-mp-ac-20130125-2dccr.html
[he talks a lot about tolerance and uses the example of advances in gay rights, but he voted against gay marriage, for example.]
As opposed to Gillard…
Sad news about the closure of Poliquant but alas these things do happen as pseph sites are generally run voluntarily and those running them have to do things for a living too. I took several months off online pseph stuff a few years ago because I was subject to the nebulous and appallingly vague provisions of the Tasmanian State Service Act while doing a long contract. Wish George the best in his new employment.
I was reading some Keating era stuff recently and it did underline the importance of standing for something worth caring about in terms of motivating the troops in the face of a likely defeat, and I do wonder how Labor is going to do that. Last election which was extremely banal on both sides provides little hope on that front.
But I also agree that Rudd has not consistently stood up for the big picture he now espouses and agree with zoomster that his vote on same sex marriage was a good example of that.
bemused
I asked you to explain what the substance is. You haven’t been able to.
Therefore it wasn’t communicated well enough for you to be able to understand it, or it isn’t there.
Diog
right. And who here is claiming that we can learn about political strategy by following Gillard’s example?
It is indeed sad to see Poliquant go. Sterling work by George while it lasted, and all the best to him.
Bemused post 50
ss well as Rudd hatred…on PB “green” hatred is very high on the list of phobias
Some hate the Greens more than the Libs..GG I think.. suspect and others too
Anyhoo….abandoning a subject I wasn’t really that interested in to begin with…and it was lefty e’s perspective I was after, not bemused’s, which I know.
[Sad news about the closure of Poliquant ]
Poliquant will probably still comment here though?
This stuff is going to have to start getting to Peris. It’s pretty tough being a celebrity candidate.
[Prominent Territory indigenous figure and Labor Party member Tracker Tilmouth said the Territory election had taught Aborigines their votes mattered. “Unfortunately, this hasn’t been able to be properly read by the Prime Minister,” he scornfully declared. ”Probably the last time she saw a real Aborigine was when she was licking a postage stamp.”]
[RISING Aboriginal Northern Territory politician Adam Giles has slammed Julia Gillard’s “captain’s pick” of Nova Peris for the Senate.
He accused the Prime Minister of making a choice based on race rather than merit and suggesting Ms Peris would be a “pet Aborigine” in the parliament.]
[INDIGENOUS ALP members are considering flooding Labor’s national executive with preselection nominations in protest at Julia Gillard’s “captain’s pick” of Olympian Nova Peris to head the party’s Northern Territory Senate ticket. ]
I’m not playing the Rudd wars either they are dull and boring and very few new observations or not barracking to be seen.
This comment however:
[something sounding good without having any real substance]
As something intended just to be a Rudd put down is a remarkably good summary of modern politics and all that is wrong with it on both sides. But it doesn’t always prevail, Carpenter managed to pull failure out of the hat with essentially his whole time as Premier being:
[something sounding good without having any real substance]
I would love to know how he came unstuck and how to bring down that kind of empty politics.
And to be super clear I’m not at all agreeing, or disagreeing either, with that as a characterisation of the Rudd article. Rudd seems to get smashed on both sides with too much policy and detail, and then all shallow pop star, and both discussions are dreary.
Dio:
It’s pretty disgraceful the way she’s being attacked.
Dio
I said at the time of the announcement that I had no problem with Nova Peris being approached but was worried about the process.
I don’t know of a “captain’s pick” being anywhere in the ALP Rules Book.
fess
What’s even worse is that it is mainly indigenous and Labor people who are attacking her selection. Those are the people who should be most on side.
My guess is it won’t end well. I wouldn’t be surprised if she withdraws.
[Alan Griffin]
is a turkey
No full stop required
It WAS Lowitja O’Donohue! I just spoke to her for half an hour.!
She told me that Keating wanted her to become G.G. in 1995, but she refused on the grounds that she is a Republican, so didn’t simply want to represent the Queen, AND she didn’t think Keating had a hope of winning in 1996 and didn’t want to be G.G. for Howard!
She told me she hasn’t been in the best of health recently, so I called her a national treasure and said I hope she gets better soon.
SO
[It WAS Lowitja O’Donohue! I just spoke to her for half an hour.!]
You just know that Lowitja O’Donohue has just gone back to her favourite blog and posted
[It WAS ShowsOn! I just spoke to him for half an hour.!]
CTar1@91
Alan is a very good local member and worked very well with the Veterans Community as Minister for Veterans Affairs.
He is a good judge of leaders too and had his advice carried the day in 2004, we would have been spared Mark Latham.
Dio:
Exactly. These members should put the party ahead of their own individual grievances and do their unhinging behind closed doors.
This is potentially very damaging to Peris.
[What’s even worse is that it is mainly indigenous and Labor people who are attacking her selection. Those are the people who should be most on side.]
Yes, that was basically Lowitja O’Donohue’s position.
She said to me she told Nova Peris 10 years ago to join a MAJOR political party and to aim to win selection to a safe seat.
[RISING Aboriginal Northern Territory politician Adam Giles has slammed Julia Gillard’s “captain’s pick” of Nova Peris for the Senate.]
That’s rising CLP Aboriginal Northern Territory politician Adam Giles …
confessions@95
Who was it that appointed Peris without proper consultation again?
Dumb move just as it was when Rudd did similar things.
A tornado has reportedly hit a Qld town!
fess
It’s even worse than I thought.
[A whispering campaign against Ms Peris has begun amid the angry fallout from Julia Gillard’s decision to parachute the former Olympian into Labor’s top Senate spot in the Territory, effectively dumping incumbent Senator Trish Crossin.
Journalists have been told of an investigation into how funds from one of Ms Peris’s education programs were used, although the ABC understands she was exonerated.]