The latest weekly Essential Research survey has two-party preferred unchanged at 53-47, with Labor up a point to 37%, the Coalition steady on 47% and the Greens down one to 9%. Also featured are a refreshingly well-framed set of questions on the AWU affair, which find:
• Thirty-one per cent claim “a lot” of awareness about the issue, 29% “some”, 25% “a little” and 12% none (you can presumably boost the latter with the 3% “don’t know”).
• On perceptions of how the matter has been handled, Julia Gillard has a slight net positive rating (39% good and 35% poor), but the opposition (20% and 49%) and the media (20% and 37%) get the thumbs down. However, respondents who thought themselves better informed tended to view Gillard less favourably, which is interesting because there was no significant tendency for Coalition supporters to be more inclined to make such a claim for themselves.
• Thirty-eight per cent say the issue has given them a more negative impression of “Julia Gillard as Prime Minister” against 11% more positive and 59% no difference.
There were also questions on “leaders’ positions on asylum seekers”, the overwhelming point of difference concerning the matter of whether the leaders had been “too soft”, on which a 14% gap in Tony Abbott’s favour in October 2011 has grown to 23%.
UPDATE (4/12/12): Morgan has published a face-to-face poll from its last two weekends of surveying, which has the Coalition up two to 40.5%, Labor down half a point to 36% and the Greens down one to 10.5%. This pans out to 52.5-47.5 to the Coalition on the respondent-allocated preferences measure, which seems to have recovered its Coalition lean this survey. Morgan’s previous election preferences figure is still forthcoming, but it should come in at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition, after Labor led 51-49 last time. Morgan has also published further figures on leadership from last week’s small-sample phone poll, which had Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard 34-22 as preferred Labor leader, and Tony Abbott trailing not only the overwhelmingly favoured Malcolm Turnbull (50%) as preferred Liberal leader, but also Joe Hockey (18% to 15%).
Preselection mail:
• The long-awaited Liberal preselection has Greenway has been postponed into the new year, which is apparently down to the determination of factional moderates to thwart the bid of 2010 candidate Jayme Diaz, an associate of the David Clarke faction of the Right who is said to have decisive levels of support among local branches. Nick Soon of the Blacktown Sun quotes a source who dismisses the chances of both Diaz and high-profile entrant Gary “Angry” Anderson, instead identifying Brett Murray, Mark Taylor and Yvonne Keane as the front-runners. Murray is “a highly sought after speaker and an expert in cultural change and developing corporate workplace culture”, Taylor “a former police prosecuting officer”, and Keane a Hills Shire councillor. However, Imre Salusinszky counts Murray as one of two candidates associated with the Alex Hawke faction of the Right (the other being Ben Jackson) who do not have the numbers. It was earlier reported that Tony Abbott has approached former rugby league player Matt Adamson, whose plans to run in Lyne were thwarted by a coalition agreement which has reserved the seat for the Nationals, but this prospect is dismissed by Salusinszky’s sources.
• The Northern Territory Country Liberal Party’s preselection for Lingiari has proved a troublesome endeavour for Tony Abbott, following his unsuccessful attempt to recruit Alison Anderson, the Labor-turned-CLP member for the remote electorate of Namatjira. Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports that Anderson was “believed” to have accepted the offer, but was rebuffed by the party’s central council’s refusal to grant her a waiver to submit a nomination after deadline. Abbott’s approach to Anderson copped a rebuke from Chief Minister Terry Mills, who accused him of having “misread” Anderson and the party. The preselection was instead won by Tina MacFarlane, owner of a Mataranka cattle station, ahead of Lawson Broad, a staffer to Terry Mills. MacFarlane’s win, reportedly by a large margin, constituted a defeat for Mills, as MacFarlane is said to be close to his potential leadership rival David Tollner. Abbott also got into trouble for saying Anderson would provide parliament with “an authentic representative of the ancient cultures of central Australia” that was not provided by the “urban Aboriginal” Ken Wyatt, his party’s member for the Perth seat of Hasluck.
• Peter van Onselen of The Australian reports that a Labor powerbroker who addresses him as “mate” has told of grim polling for Labor in suburban Sydney, but better results in regional NSW marginals such as Eden-Monaro and Robertson. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says “Liberal Party research is picking up the same patterns and senior Liberals have been told to campaign in Labor seats held by margins of up to 10 per cent in the belief that they all are vulnerable”. George Hasanakos at Poliquant considers the ifs.
• Van Onselen also relates that Labor fears a wipeout in Tasmania, “which even the PM’s office admits to”.
Queensland Qorner:
• The Liberal National Party determined its Senate ticket last weekend, which required that successors be chosen for the retiring Sue Boyce and Ron Boswell. Incumbent Ian MacDonald has been confirmed in the number one position, with state election campaign director James McGrath in number two and Matt Canavan, former chief-of-staff to Barnaby Joyce, in number three. Former Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive David Goodwin takes the theoretically winnable but highly unlikely prospect of fourth place. Amy Remeikis of Fairfax reports unsuccessful candidates out of a field of 16 included party vice-president Gary Spence, who if successful would have sat as a National.
• Bundaberg businessman Keith Pitt has won LNP preselection for Hinkler, which will be vacated by the retirement of Paul Neville. Other nominees, at least in the preliminary stages, included “Len Fehlhaber, a primary school principal, Cathy Heidrich, a media/research officer, Chris McLoughlin, an electorate officer, Greg McMahon, a probation and parole officer, and Geoff Redpath, an accountant”, according to an AAP report.
• Sarah Vogler of the Sunday Mail reports John Bjelke-Petersen, son of Sir Joh and twice-unsuccessful state election candidate, “is being lined up as a federal election candidate as the likelihood of billionaire businessman Clive Palmer launching his own political party gathers momentum”. A Galaxy poll of 350 respondents, conducted at the behest of a “consortium of businesses”, reportedly showed 43% of Maranoa voters saying they would vote be “likely” to support Bjelke-Petersen against Bruce Scott, whose determination to seek another term as LNP member deprived Barnaby Joyce of a hoped-for entry to the lower house. Kevin Bonham in comments harbours his doubts.
• Kirsten Livermore, Labor’s member for Capricornia since 1998, has announced she will bow out at the next election to spend more time with her family. The ABC reports her successor will be chosen through a new preselection process in which branch members will choose from a selection of nominees deemed appropriate by head office. Paul Milton Butler of the Morning Bulletin reports that Paul Hoolihan, who lost his local seat of Keppel at the state election, fancies himself as a starter, although being 65 may prove an obstacle.
• There has been talk around the place, including from Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail on Insiders, that Chris Trevor will again run for Labor in the Gladstone-region seat of Flynn, which he won upon its creation in 2007 before joining the party’s Queensland casualty list in 2010.
• The Newman government’s difficulties have encouraged talk of the federal election prospects for Katter’s Australian Party. The Financial Review reports the party is hopeful local businesswoman Bronwyn Walker can win the Townsville seat of Herbert from LNP incumbent Ewen Jones, and also rates its chances in Dawson and Capricornia.
MERERBebe
is i feel correct with this one , thats past we now are in the here and now concentrate on abbotts no policies
ect and other stuff political. see how the awu
scenario worked out in favour for the pm
in think people on twitter should just ignore the past of abbott, we see enough now to feel negative leave the past in the past please
OK, test-wise, we don’t have an opening partnership or a number three. Cowan has shown some promise, not much more. We have a paltry spin attack. Our captain is a good tactician and a brilliant batsman. Mr Cricket is an automatic in.
The pace bowling is pedestrian. Wade is acceptable as a wicket keeper.
Are we going to get roasted in the next Ashes?
I assume the ABC and Fairfax come under the umbrella of “Murdoch-dominated media”.
The Syrian religous, cum civil, cum ethnic, cum irredentist, cum regional war has already generated 400,000 asylum seekers, with many millions more to come if the Alawites lose, the Kurds get punished for sitting on the fence and the christians get punished for flourishing under the Alawites.
I guarantee that 90% would jump at the chance to join a GreensAir free flight to Australia with all mod cons when they get here.
You know it makes sense.
mimhoff
[The refugees taking boats from Indonesia have already been displaced and are not being persecuted in Indonesia. So what does “deserving of protection” mean in their context?]
When it comes to Iraqi AS I agree with Colin Powell’s warning before the Iraq war,”You break it you own it” .We helped break it so we are part owners. Refugees and all.
[Waist lines will always be smaller under a Coalition government.]
I suppose Joe didn’t get that memo….
post 64
can some one tweet mr denmore and ask where that photo
was taken,
Why would an Australian batsman play a hook shot in the current circumstances?
It’s like making Ms Bishop Shadow Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs in the vague hope that it will all work out somehow.
So Mr Cricket and Captain Metrosexual have to get around 250 runs each.
They might do it. But then again, they might not.
Boerwar
[So Mr Cricket and Captain Metrosexual have to get around 250 runs each]
I hope metro man has his industrial strength hair gel ready for tomorrow. Predicted to be 37 degrees in Perth.
[Why would an Australian batsman play a hook shot in the current circumstances?]
Because the Cricket press have labelled him as a blocker, when a blocker is what we need.
Captain Metrosexual just used his box to stop a fast one.
BW
[Why would an Australian batsman play a hook shot in the current circumstances?]
Agree, he’s clearly a moron. They stick two fieldsmen out there, bowl it short and he lobs it down the fielder’s throat.
gosh criket seems very political
and nasty to me
why do people make such comments
it s after all O N L Y SPORT
The 37% is abit like the 47% in USA, I hope Abbott makes mistake in 2013 election mistreating the 37%.
These metrosexuals are tougher than you think. He is up for a repeat.
He didn’t back away. Good on him.
COAG will be interesting as usual.
The States that have smart electricity meters will be happy with variable pricing, the States who own the infrastructure will want to keep the dividends. Qld will say something incredibly stupid and do nothing and the PM will have had a PR victory.
Meanwhile nothing has happened.
Sohar @ 103
[I assume the ABC and Fairfax come under the umbrella of “Murdoch-dominated media”.]
The ABC is certainly dominated by News Ltd, festooned as they are with Murdoch shills on their list of regular interviewees to be massaged and pampered by the directionless and feeble roster of ABC interlocutors.
Fairfax is not exactly dominated by Murdoch, but the group think mentality and confirmation bias of the inbred Press Gallery ensures that the current crop of Fairfax drones and timeservers don’t rouse themselves from their chairs unless it is to scramble to justify their bloated paypackets to Gina Rinehart by dipping their pens in anti-Gillard poison on a regular basis.
Poroti @ 63
National is at its lowest point all year. Key has had a decent polling lead since 2008, now he’s under a little pressure.
As always here is a poll average and seat projection
http://poliquant.com/nz/
Newman continuing to destroy Democracy:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/newman-governments-decision-to-dismantle-ulda-and-install-more-powerful-planning-body-the-ministers-office-without-consultation-is-a-bad-idea-writes-robert-macdonald-urban-land-development-authority-medq-minister-for-economic-development-queensland/story-e6frg6n6-1226528417325
This time More powerful Ministers Office without consultation.
Can someone explain to me why exactly Queensland doesn’t have an upper house? I heard it was abolished by a Labor government. Why?
poroti
[When it comes to Iraqi AS I agree with Colin Powell’s warning before the Iraq war,”You break it you own it” .We helped break it so we are part owners. Refugees and all.]
I agree there that we have an obligation to settle those who were displaced as a result of our involvement in the Iraq War.
That is a different thing to the question of our legal responsibilities under the Refugee Convention. What I don’t understand is the focus on refugees needing “protection” when they are already far away from their persecutors. The main concern of the Refugee Convention is protection against refoulement: being refused entry if you are fleeing a country where you are being persecuted, or being returned to a country where you will be persecuted. Nobody is suggesting that Australia do this.
[Newman continuing to destroy Democracy:]
Yep tell everyone you are going to abolish an authority and get their support, then abolish the authority. Sounds reasonable.
Except in Newmanland where abolish means replace with Ministerial discretion. Great idea, give the Minister personal yes or no on development applications – no problems there surely?
Poliquant
[National is at its lowest point all year. Key has had a decent polling lead since 2008, now he’s under a little pressure]
Thanks.I checked out polling in the UK and it was also baaad news for the Conservative side of politics.Especially with it being first past the post. YouGov had Labour 44 % Conservatives 31 % Lib-Dems 10 %
my say
[MERERBebe]
+1
feeney bought this up yesterday
[The article suggests that Keane is somehow involved in the so-called “AWU scandal” down the track. It seems like BS to me, but does anyone know about the background of this site?
They are suggesting that JG appointed Keane to the HC because of his involvement, and it was announced 14 weeks before he takes up office on 1 March 2013.]
This got a short run on either the Macquarie News network or the so called super radio news on Saturday I think it was.” PM under pressure.. new controversy blah blah”
Might come up again after the break.
Amazed I can’t find any prior mention here, Twitter or Google News but the breakdown of the curious Galaxy four leader cagematch poll by voting intention is:
Coalition: Abbott 35 Turnbull 31 Rudd 18 Gillard 6 Uncommitted 10
Labor voters: Gillard 43 Rudd 35 Turnbull 13 Abbott 1 Uncommitted 8
This was published on p.6 of the Hobart Mercury dead tree edition this morning.
[Can someone explain to me why exactly Queensland doesn’t have an upper house? I heard it was abolished by a Labor government. Why?]
This was because in the 1910’s, the Queensland Labor government was constantly opposed by its legislative council. MLC’s were not elected, but appointed by the governor, so they were mostly privileged Tories.
The Labor government at the time thought it would be better to abolish it rather than reform it, so once it finally got the numbers after a good election result in the early 1920’s and finally got the numbers in the LC, it was abolished.
Both parties could get away with their agendas better without it, so it stayed that way. But I think it should be reinstated, the LC works well in other states. Even a weakened LC like Victoria that can’t block supply would be better than none at all, especially if minimum scrutiny allows governments to behave like Newman’s LNP.
PoK
Efforts to traduce an appointee to the High Court of Australia should be treated for what they are worth – bubkes.
[But I think it should be reinstated…]
Rubbish all upper houses should be abolished. Let the elected Govt do what it wants and the face the electors 3 years or so later.
No upper house to save the Govt from itself.
Maybe keep The Senate as the States House, remove all party allegiances and make them representatives of each State.
The Senator for SA would mean something.
Boerwar/Finns…Fukushima Inc being left behind…This looks outrageous!
[Even by the highly debauched standards of Australian insolvency practice, there has rarely been such a Saturnalian fee-fest as the receivership of Pankaj Oswal’s Burrup Fertilisers.
There were no holds barred. In just 14 months from the time the ANZ bank pulled the pin, the great fee hunters managed to clean out $56 million.
PPB and Freehills alone helped themselves to almost $19 million and $13.8 million respectively. Nine law firms, a slew of consultants and the ubiquitous ”assurance” firms were there for the kill, too.
The bill for travel and accommodation surpassed $2 million. Flagstaff Partners, a little-known merchant bank with links to ANZ, took home $6.8 million for providing advice. Who said talk was cheap?]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/fee-hunters-grab-56m-in-14-months-20121202-2aoz4.html#ixzz2DxxsaxHU
Vk
Can someone explain to me why exactly Queensland doesn’t have an upper house?
Because they can do as much corruption with one house as other states can do with two.
Poroti @ 125
The baaaad news for the Conservatives is that the Lib Dems are joined to their hip. This has sent the left vote back to Labour. Comparing your figures to the last election:
Con 31 (-5)
Lab 44 (+15)
LD 10 (-13)
The Conservatives are also bleeding votes to their right to UKIP.
[Because they can do as much corruption with one house as other states can do with two.]
b
Er cough, ICAC. 😆
Laocoon
Relax. All is well. They are front organisations for F,B,F&Co.
that”s bullshit and you know it!
Just a reminder to treat all “secret leaked internal polling” with all the salt in the Dead Sea.
It’s worthless.
Unless the data has been independently collected by a reputable research agency, give it no credit.
And even when internal advice is given with all sincerity – as it was to Peter Dutton in 2009 when party strategists told him he couldn’t win Dickson and sent him to humiliate himself unsuccessfully seeking pre-selection in McPherson, only to have him retain Dickson with a swing of 6% – it doesn’t mean they know what they are talking about.
As for media speculation on party insiders, recall it was only a few months ago when the ALP was facing a wipeout in QLD, and now there is talk of them winning seats up there.
Or in 2007 when the council amalgamations in QLD were going to cost the ALP a swag of seats and a chance at govt, only to have them record an historic result. In fact, the biggest proponent of the ‘wipeout’, Deanne Kelly, actually lost her own seat.
Or how the major beneficiary of “brilliant marginal seats strategy”, John Howard, lost his own marginal seat in 2007.
Now the ALP is facing a ‘wipeout’ in NSW & Tasmania. Maybe they are, but who knows? And that’s the point – no-one does.
I’ve been listening to these stories for 40 years – and stories, is the most apt term for them.
The election will take care of itself, as it always does.
Boer – like a Virtucon?! 🙂
L
We don’t do virtue unless it is paid for. Upfront.
Now this is bullshit Newman – sack the useless Minister.
[CHILD Safety Minister Tracy Davis needs to urgently step in and exercise her ministerial powers.
Twice in recent days The Courier-Mail has highlighted cases of the State Government using legal tactics to try to silence foster families with serious complaints about her department. And twice she has hidden behind the excuse that she can’t comment on matters before the court, which begs the question: Why are they there in the first place?
The matters raised by the foster families are serious and emotionally painful by any measure, and raise questions about the way Child Safety goes about its business.
On Saturday, we reported that three sisters who were repeatedly sexually abused by a foster child are suing Child Safety for putting them at risk of the sexual offender, who had been convicted two years earlier of raping a three-year-old girl. The department, which had not fully disclosed the child’s history, responded by taking legal action against the mother, saying she was at fault and should have better protected her daughters.]
B
Is that what they mean by “making a virtue out of necessity”?
rua
Mr Newman’s Government has certainly plumbed the depths with indecent haste.
F,B,F&Co legal division is turning the neophyte Newman Government into a nice little earner. We are not alone in this strategy. Taxpayers, the environment and sundry innocent victims are mere collateral damage in the Temple of Queensland Law.
Justice must out.
L
B
Is that what they mean by “making a virtue out of necessity”?
In relation to ‘necessity’ we charge double. In-house we call it the short-and-curlies legal charges framework.
Justice will out. Right out.
@Von Kirsdarke 129
I am constantly amazed at how many people overlook the obvious solution. The real problem is the entrenched two-party (at the moment almost one-party in Qld) system. Reform the electoral system so the parliament accurately reflects what people vote for. Reinstating the LC would be a horribly inefficient patch job.
Laocoon + Boerwar
Virtucon only comes in 12th in Forbes 25 Largest Fictional Companies list. The No.1 has a customer loyalty model worthy of Boer-Finns Fukushima.ltd
[Combine Honnete Ober Advancer Mercantiles.
Enviable customer-loyalty model: One dose of spice is enough to addict a person for a lifetime, continued use extends lifespan by hundreds of years, and quitting is invariably fatal. Several intergalactic tobacco companies rumored to be investigating partnerships. ]
http://www.forbes.com/2007/12/10/largest-fictional-companies-oped-books-fict1507-cx_mn_de_1211company_slide_2.html?thisSpeed=undefined
[Justice must out.]
We need an umpire with an index finger.
Thanks poroti 🙂
Aristotle @ 139
Quite frankly I take all polls with a bucketful of salt. IMO the only good they do is give the lily-livered political tragics a bit of feel good optimism if there is some improvement in dire predictions for their preferred party.
Que sera sera is what happens on election day.